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电动卡车 2020-2030: IDTechEx

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电动卡车 2020-2030

中型和重型电动卡车市场分析,以及针对电池电动卡车和燃料电池卡车的颗粒化市场预测


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中型和重型卡车市场正在发展。以化石燃料为动力的内燃机时代就快要过去了。《IDTechEx 电动卡车 2020-2030》报告针对电池电动卡车和燃料电池电动卡车勾勒了 48 条预测线,其中包括针对关键地区,即中国、北美和欧洲的汽车生产、市场渗透和市场价值的十年展望(按中型和重型划分)。此报告将有助于整个汽车价值链的企业在这个快速变化的市场中针对未来制定计划。
Along with the rest of the automotive sector, the medium and heavy-duty truck market is evolving. Governments around the world, recognising the potentially catastrophic repercussions of unfettered climate change and witnessing the detrimental impact on human health from vehicle exhaust pollutant emissions in urban environments, are taking decisive action, that will, in the coming decades, drive vehicle manufacturers to zero on-road exhaust emission powertrain solutions. Consequently, the days of the fossil fuel powered combustion engine are numbered.
 
The IDTechEx Electric Truck 2020-2030 report is designed to help businesses across the automotive value chain plan for the future in this rapidly changing market. The report provides 48 forecast lines for battery electric and fuel cell electric trucks, that include a ten-year outlook for vehicle production, market penetration and market value, with separate forecasts for both the medium and heavy-duty truck markets and regional segmentation for China, North America, Europe and ROW. The current status of the battery and fuel cell truck market is provided, with detail about each of the battery electric and fuel cell electric truck projects being undertaken by major players in the industry. The report presents background to developments in the electric truck market, including fuel cells and electric hybridization, along with discussion of key enabling technologies for electric truck deployment such as batteries, motors and charging infrastructure.
 
IDTechEx Electric truck 2020-2030 forecast segmentation:
 
• By truck weight; with separate medium and heavy-duty forecasts
• By technology; battery electric (incorporating all-electric and hybrid electric trucks) and fuel cell electric trucks.
• By geography; North America, China, Europe (EU + EFTA) and ROW as well as a aggregate global forecast.
• 10-year outlook; production, market penetration (%), market revenue ($) and battery capacity requirement (GWh)
 
IDTechEx global medium and heavy-duty market battery requirement forecast 2020-2030 (GWh)
Source: IDTechEx Electric Trucks 2020-2030
Despite medium and heavy duty trucks representing only 9% of the global vehicle stock, large inefficient diesel truck engines combined with high average annual mileage means that the truck sector contributes 39% of the transport sectors' greenhouse gas emissions, which equates to about 5% of all global fossil fuel derived CO2 emission. It is this disproportionate contribution to emissions which makes trucks a target for governments. If the global community is going to meet its targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit the impact of climate change then it is clear that a rapid decarbonisation of the truck sector must be a priority.
 
Whilst CO2 emission has arguably been the main force driving move to zero on-road emission freight, an ever-increasing body of evidence is also highlighting the damage that poor air quality is having on populations which are frequently exposed to harmful levels of air pollution. In urban environments, that are in close proximity to congested road infrastructure, transport related emissions of, in particular, nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) have been directly linked to increased morbidity and mortality. A 2019 report by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) linked vehicle emissions to 385,000 premature deaths worldwide in 2015, with the cost of the health impacts from vehicle emissions calculated at approximately $1 trillion USD.
 
If efforts to encourage a significant reduction in average truck emissions prove ineffective in the near term, the emissions problem will be exacerbated by the expected growth in freight demand. Medium and heavy-duty trucks are an integral part of the freight transport industry, which is the backbone of major economies, as the movement of goods keeping business running. The rise of online shopping, the trend of increasing urbanisation and reducing personal car ownership are projected to increase the demand for home delivery and therefore increase the demand for freight and the commercial vehicles that facilitate that movement of goods.
 
Vehicle electrification offers a solution which effectively eliminates on-road exhaust emission and passes the pressure of decarbonisation on to electricity generation. Rather than monitoring the emission of millions of vehicles, the task then becomes one of governments managing the emission of a limited number of large power stations in combination with renewable sources, to reduce the carbon intensity of supplied electricity.
 
A majority of manufactures, including Tesla, Daimler, VW and Volvo are investing heavily in all-electric trucks, which appear to be winning the total cost of ownership battle against diesel by the end of the 2020s. A smaller minority, Toyota, Hyundai, and Nikola, have chosen to focus their efforts on fuel cell EV as the powertrain of the future, and despite issues with the efficiency of hydrogen as a fuel, FCEV remains in the conversation as a technology for long haul trucking applications, where a greater range is required, though the viability of this technology is dependent on the production cheap low carbon hydrogen. Chinese manufacturers are starting to produce electric trucks, leveraging their experience in electric buses and battery production. Given the Chinese governments strong support for the entire EV industry it likely that this is where the most significant deployment of EV trucks will be seen in the near future. IDTechEx forecast the penetration of electric trucks into the global medium and heavy duty market to be 9.4% by 2030.
 
Zero-emission medium and heavy-duty trucks by technology and production status
Source: IDTechEx Electric Trucks 2020-2030, IEA
 
In the short term a range of financial incentives for electric trucks in the form of subsidies and tax breaks will be necessary to offset the high initial capital investment required to purchase electric trucks. However, over the next decade, as tightening emission regulation forces diesel truck manufacturers to fit increasingly expensive emissions control devices, raising the cost of diesel trucks, and the cost of electric trucks decreases due to falling battery prices and economies of scale savings on the cost of electric components and vehicle manufacturing, the TCO balance swings in favour of electric trucks. By the end of the 2020s, with electric trucks produced in volume, the difference in initial capital investment will be offset by the fuel savings and maintenance over the lifetime of the truck.
 
An increasing number of cities and nations around the world are targeting a complete phase out of diesel and petrol as a fuelled vehicles on their roads. The electrification of truck fleets, especially those operating in urban environments, is likely to happen rapidly, once the cost benefit and ability of the technology to deliver the required daily duty cycles have been demonstrated.
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Electric Trucks: Drivers and Barriers
1.2.Road Freight Market
1.3.Global CO2 emission: medium & heavy duty trucks
1.4.Range of zero emission medium and heavy trucks
1.5.Heavy-duty: BEV or fuel cell?
1.6.Trucks and Covid-19
1.7.Electric Trucks and Covid-19
1.8.Key global forecast takeaways
1.9.Key regional forecast takeaways
1.10.MD & HD Truck Market Penetration 2017-2041
1.11.MD & HD Truck Unit Sales 2017-2041 (BEV, PHEV, FCEV)
1.12.Electric MD & HD Truck Battery Demand 2017-2041 (GWh)
1.13.eM&HDT sales by region (000s units)
1.14.Electric MD & HD Truck Market Value 2017-2041 ($ Billion)
1.15.Commentary
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Electric Vehicle Terms
2.2.Electric Vehicles: Basic Principle
2.3.Electric Vehicles: Typical Specs
2.4.Types of popular on-road truck
2.5.A category that is difficult to define
2.6.Different segments of goods transportation by land
2.7.Truck classifications
2.8.Truck type
2.9.Truck axle layout descriptions
2.10.The Core Driver: Climate Change
2.11.Global CO2 emission: medium & heavy-duty trucks
2.12.CO2 emission from road transport, EU
2.13.GHG emission from the truck sector
2.14.Urban air quality
2.15.Fossil Fuel Bans (Cities)
2.16.Fossil Fuel Bans: Explained
2.17.Official or Legislated Fossil Fuel Bans (National)
2.18.Unofficial, Drafted or Proposed Fossil Fuel Bans (National)
2.19.The worldwide freight transport industry
2.20.Road Freight Market
2.21.Projected increase in global road freight activity
2.22.The rise of e-commerce: increased freight demand
2.23.Fuel / emissions regulation for new trucks
2.24.Fuel / CO2 emissions regulation for new trucks
2.25.December 2018: EU agrees 30% cut in truck CO2 emissions
2.26.Emissions regulation for new trucks - other pollutants
2.27.Fuel Saving Technology Areas
2.28.The rise of zero (or near zero) exhaust emission trucks
2.29.EU initiatives to offset additional powertrain weight
3.MEDIUM & HEAVY-DUTY TRUCKS IN EUROPE
3.1.Overview
3.1.1.Main truck brands in Europe
3.1.2.Medium and Heavy-Duty Truck Sales in the EU
3.1.3.The freight transport industry - Europe
3.2.Europe eTruck Players
3.2.1.Electric Trucks: MAN (VW GROUP)
3.2.2.Electric Trucks: SCANIA (VW GROUP)
3.2.3.Scania and Northvolt partnership
3.2.4.Electric Trucks: VOLVO
3.2.5.Electric Trucks: RENAULT TRUCKS (VOLVO)
3.2.6.Renault Trucks: Decades Before Electric Long Haul?
3.2.7.Biofuels and displacement fuels a stepping stone?
3.2.8.Renault BEV Refuge Truck at EVS 32
3.2.9.Electric Trucks: MERCEDES (DAIMLER)
3.2.10.FUSO eCanter
3.2.11.Daimler eActros
3.2.12.Daimler eActros "innovation fleet"
3.2.13.Electric Trucks: IVECO
3.2.14.Electric Trucks: DAF (PACCAR)
3.2.15.Electric Trucks: E-FORCE ONE
3.2.16.Electric Trucks: FRAMO
3.2.17.Electric Trucks: TERBERG
3.2.18.Electric Trucks: ARRIVAL
3.2.19.Electric Trucks: EMOSS
3.2.20.Electric Trucks: TEVVA
4.MEDIUM & HEAVY-DUTY TRUCKS IN THE US
4.1.Overview
4.1.1.Main truck brands in the US
4.1.2.Main truck brands in the US in 2019
4.1.3.Medium and Heavy-Duty Truck Sales in the US
4.1.4.The freight transport industry - US
4.1.5.Industry issues according to US truckers
4.1.6.Average truck replacement age in the US
4.1.7.Alternative fuel choices for trucks in the US
4.1.8.The cost of trucking in the United States
4.1.9.Average US On-Highway Diesel Prices 2000-Sep2020
4.1.10.Running cost for US truckers
4.1.11.Nobody wants to be a truck driver in the US
4.1.12.The solution: electric, autonomous trucks?
4.1.13.California's Advanced Clean Trucks Regulation
4.1.14.CARB Voucher Incentive Project
4.2.US eTruck Players
4.2.1.Electric Trucks: FREIGHTLINER (DAIMLER)
4.2.2.Electric Trucks: PETERBILT (PACCAR)
4.2.3.Electric Trucks: VOLVO
4.2.4.Electric Trucks: MACK (VOLVO)
4.2.5.Electric Trucks: INTERNATIONAL (NAVISTAR)
4.2.6.Electric Trucks: TESLA
4.2.7.Electric Trucks: XOS TRUCKS
4.2.8.Electric Trucks: ALKANE
4.2.9.Electric Trucks: LION ELECTRIC
4.2.10.Electric Trucks: CUMMINS
4.2.11.Electric Trucks: WRIGHTSPEED
4.2.12.Electric Trucks: ZEROTRUCK
4.2.13.Electric Trucks: CHANJE
4.2.14.Electric Trucks: EDI
4.2.15.Motiv Power Systems - Medium Duty eTrucks
4.2.16.Electric Trucks: ORANGE EV
4.2.17.TransPower - Heavy Duty Class 8 eTrucks
4.2.18.Electric Trucks: TransPower
4.2.19.Electric Trucks: LIGHTNING SYSTEMS
4.2.20.Rivian / Amazon electric delivery van
5.MEDIUM & HEAVY-DUTY TRUCKS IN CHINA
5.1.Overview
5.1.1.Main truck brands in China
5.1.2.Medium and Heavy-Duty Truck Sales in China
5.1.3.The worldwide freight transport industry - China
5.1.4.The freight transport industry - China
5.1.5.Truck engine supplier relationships in China
5.1.6.Chinese truck joint ventures
5.1.7.China's truck market segments
5.1.8.Total Commercial Vehicle Sales in China
5.2.China eTruck Players
5.2.1.Electric Trucks: FAW JIEFANG
5.2.2.Electric Trucks: DONGFENG
5.2.3.Electric Trucks: SINOTRUCK CDW
5.2.4.Electric Trucks: SHACMAN
5.2.5.Electric Trucks: FOTON
5.2.6.Electric Trucks: JAC MOTORS
5.2.7.Electric Trucks: DAYUN
5.2.8.Electric Trucks: GEELY
5.2.9.Electric Trucks: BYD
5.2.10.Electric Trucks: CHTC Chufeng
6.MEDIUM & HEAVY-DUTY TRUCKS: ROW
6.1.1.Main truck brands in Japan
6.1.2.Japan truck market share by manufacturer
6.1.3.Historic truck sales in Japan
6.1.4.Truck transport business in Japan
6.1.5.Russian Truck Fleet
6.1.6.Historic truck sales in Russia
6.1.7.Russia truck market share by manufacturer
6.1.8.Historic truck sales in India
6.1.9.India truck market share by manufacturer
6.1.10.Mexico
6.1.11.Electric Trucks: HINO MOTORS
6.1.12.Electric Trucks: HYUNDAI
7.TCO CONSIDERATIONS
7.1.Advantages and disadvantages of electric vs. fuel cell trucks
7.2.TCO considerations for electric trucks
7.3.Cost projections in selected countries for various powertrains
7.4.Electric trucks reduced operating costs
7.5.TCO of a diesel vs. an all-electric Class 6 truck
7.6.TCO of a diesel vs. an all-electric tractor-trailer
7.7.Overcoming barriers for low emission technologies
7.8.More carrot, more stick
8.LI-ION BATTERIES
8.1.Overview
8.1.1.What is a Li-ion battery?
8.1.2.The Battery Trilemma
8.1.3.Electrochemistry Definitions
8.1.4.Lithium-based Battery Family Tree
8.1.5.Battery Wish List
8.1.6.More Than One Type of Li-ion battery
8.1.7.NMC: from 111 to 811
8.1.8.Cobalt: Price Volatility
8.1.9.Cathode Performance Comparison
8.1.10.811 Commercialisation Examples
8.1.11.Commercial Anodes: Graphite
8.1.12.The Promise of Silicon-based Anodes
8.1.13.The Reality of Silicon
8.1.14.Silicon: Incremental Steps
8.1.15.What is in a Cell?
8.1.16.Inactive Materials Negatively Affect Energy Density
8.1.17.Commercial Battery Packaging Technologies
8.1.18.Comparison of Commercial Cell Geometries
8.1.19.What is NCMA?
8.1.20.Lithium-based Batteries Beyond Li-ion
8.1.21.Li-ion Chemistry Snapshot: 2020, 2025, 2030
8.2.Commercial Battery Pack Players
8.2.1.LithiumWerks: Standing Outside the Party
8.2.2.LithiumWerks' Battery Cells
8.2.3.LithiumWerks' Battery Cells: Made in China
8.2.4.Akasol Emerging as Key Supplier for Commercial EVs
8.2.5.Akasol Energy Density Road Map for Commercial EVs
8.2.6.Akasol's 'Answer to Solid State'
8.2.7.Leclanché: Premium Battery Maker
8.2.8.Forsee Power: Struggling to Stand Out
8.2.9.Webasto Expanding Production
8.2.10.EnerDel: battery packs for trucks
9.CHARGING
9.1.Charging methods
9.2.MW Charging Difficulty for BEVs
9.3.The emergence of 'Mega chargers'
9.4.Siemens eHighway
9.5.There's Now An Electric Highway In California
9.6.Mack demonstrates catenary-powered PHEV
9.7.Volvo's electric roads point to battery-free EV future
9.8.Qualcomm - dynamic charging
9.9.Daimler Truck opened charging park for commercial EVs
9.10.CharIN is working on charging standard for commercial electric vehicles
9.11.Momentum Dynamics: high-power wireless charging for electric vehicle fleets
9.12.Types of electric road systems
9.13.Electric road systems: conductive versus inductive
9.14.Electric road systems: Sweden
9.15.Germany tests its first electric highway for trucks
9.16.Electric road systems: market and challenges
10.ELECTRIC TRACTION MOTORS
10.1.Comparison of Traction Motor Construction and Merits
10.2.Motor Efficiency Comparison
10.3.Magnet Price Increase?
10.4.LCVs & Trucks
10.5.Motors per Vehicle and kWp per Vehicle Assumptions
10.6.Brushed DC: Small Presence in LCVs
10.7.LCVs and Trucks Motor Outlook
11.FUEL CELLS
11.1.Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells
11.2.Fuel Cell Inefficiency and Cooling Methods
11.3.Challenges for Fuel Cells
11.4.Grey Hydrogen
11.5.Case Study: Hydrogen Costs
11.6.Infrastructure Costs
11.7.Fuel Cell Charging Infrastructure in the US
11.8.Fuel Cost per Mile: FCEV, BEV, internal-combustion
11.9.Fuel cells and trucks today
11.10.Primary issues for battery and fuel cell trucks
11.11.Batteries vs. Fuel Cells: driving range
11.12.Guide to hydrogen truck refuelling
11.13.Developing hydrogen refuelling infrastructure
11.14.Nikola Trucks: Hydrogen Infrastructure
11.15.Alternative fuels generation - 2030 vs. 2050
11.16.Using bio-waste to generate hydrogen
11.17.Timeline for Nikola
11.18.First Nikola truck will be a BEV (not fuel cell)
11.19.Nikola One
11.20.Nikola Commercial Truck Milestones
11.21.Nikola TWO: New Flagship Fuel Cell Truck
11.22.Nikola BEV Garbage Truck Order
11.23.Nikola an "Energy Technology Company"?
11.24.IDTechEx Take: The Future for Nikola
11.25.Fuel Cell Trucks: KENWORTH (PACCAR)
11.26.Fuel Cell Trucks: BALLARD / UPS
11.27.Fuel Cell Trucks: DONGFENG
11.28.Fuel Cell Trucks: HYUNDAI
11.29.Fuel Cell Trucks: DAIMLER / VOLVO
11.30.Fuel Cell Trucks: TOYOTA / HINO
11.31.Arcola Energy
11.32.ULEMCo Ltd
11.33.Fuel Cell Truck Example Specifications
12.FORECASTS
12.1.Overview
12.1.1.Forecast Assumptions
12.1.2.Forecast Methodology
12.1.3.Battery Shortage Assumptions
12.1.4.Li-ion Cell and Pack Price Assumptions 2020-2030
12.1.5.Market forecast: Average battery capacity for electric medium-duty trucks (kWh) 2020-2041
12.1.6.Market forecast: Average battery capacity for electric heavy-duty trucks (kWh) 2020-2041
12.1.7.Market forecast: Average battery capacity for medium- and heavy-duty fuel cell electric trucks (kWh) 2020-2041
12.1.8.Market forecast: Average battery capacity for medium- and heavy-duty PHEV trucks (kWh) 2020-2041
12.2.Medium and Heavy-Duty Truck Market Forecasts 2021-2041
12.2.1.M&HDT global sales (000s units)
12.2.2.M&HDT global sales: BEV, PHEV and FCEV (000s)
12.2.3.eM&HDT sales by region (000s units)
12.2.4.M&HDT market share forecast for eM&HDT (%)
12.2.5.eM&HDT battery demand forecast (GWh)
12.2.6.eM&HDT battery demand forecast by region (GWh)
12.2.7.eM&HDT market forecast ($US billion)
12.2.8.eM&HDT market forecast by region ($US billion)
12.2.9.FCEV M&HDT Fuel Cell Demand Forecast (MW)
12.3.Medium-Duty Truck Market Forecasts 2021-2041
12.3.1.MDT global sales (000s units)
12.3.2.eMDT sales: BEV, PHEV and FCEV (000s)
12.3.3.eMDT sales by region (000s units)
12.3.4.MDT market share forecast for eMDT
12.3.5.eMDT battery demand forecast (GWh)
12.3.6.eMDT battery demand forecast by region (GWh)
12.3.7.eMDT market forecast ($US billion)
12.3.8.eMDT market forecast by region ($US billion)
12.3.9.FCEV MDT Fuel Cell Demand Forecast (MW)
12.4.Heavy-Duty Truck Market Forecasts 2021 2041
12.4.1.HDT global sales (000s units)
12.4.2.eHDT sales: BEV, PHEV and FCEV (000s)
12.4.3.eHDT sales by region (000s units)
12.4.4.HDT market share forecast for eHDT
12.4.5.eHDT battery demand forecast (GWh)
12.4.6.eHDT battery demand forecast by region (GWh)
12.4.7.eHDT market forecast ($US billion)
12.4.8.eHDT market forecast by region ($US billion)
12.4.9.FCEV HDT Fuel Cell Demand Forecast (MW)
12.5.Regional Sales Forecasts 2021-2041
12.5.1.Europe MDT sales (000s units)
12.5.2.Europe HDT sales (000s units)
12.5.3.US MDT sales (000s units)
12.5.4.US HDT sales (000s units)
12.5.5.China MDT sales (000s units)
12.5.6.China HDT sales (000s units)
12.5.7.RoW MDT sales (000s units)
12.5.8.RoW HDT sales (000s units)
 

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