2025年-2045年插电式混合动力与电池电动汽车：技术、参与者、法规及市场预测

本报告提供了电动汽车市场的关键市场情报，包含截至2024年上半年的数据。市场分析，涵盖全球和地区

技术趋势

预测

 

1. 执行摘要

2. 全球趋势与市场驱动因素。涵盖截至2024年上半年的销售表现，主要参与者和全球趋势。

3. 美国：政策、市场、预测。涵盖EPA/CARB法规，皮卡车的出现，主要原始设备制造商。

4. 欧洲+欧洲自由贸易联盟+英国：政策、市场、预测。评估欧盟二氧化碳法规及其对2025年主要原始设备制造商可能产生的影响。

5. 中国：政策、市场、预测。新能源车（NEV）市场表现，双积分制度更新，关键OEM。

6. 技术趋势

7. 电池。锂离子电池关键发展的概述及其对汽车市场的影响。单体到模组技术、电池需求预测、正极市场演变。

8. 电动机。按电机类型划分的市场份额，原始设备制造商减少稀土使用的方法。

9. 电力电子。800伏架构及碳化硅（SiC）和氮化镓（GaN）的出现。

10. 燃料电池电动汽车。FCEV汽车的市场表现，采用的主要障碍，市场展望。

11. 预测。跨动力系统（BEV、PHEV、FCEV）及关键地区（美国、欧盟+EFTA+英国、中国）的详细20年预测，以及市场价值（美元）和电池需求（GWh）的辅助预测。

 

Despite market headwinds, battery electric cars are set to dominate the automotive industry. It is a question of when, not if, they overtake internal combustion engine (ICE) sales globally. This report offers a deep dive into the current slowdown in growth in key regions, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the regulations and policies that will shake up the market in 2025 and beyond.

 

The car market is the largest transport sector, with IDTechEx estimating that over 90 million vehicles were sold globally in 2023. This sector also contributes significantly to road transport greenhouse gas emissions, so there is a strong push to decarbonize vehicles. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are the best route to achieving this with zero tailpipe emissions and a well-established market status (over 10 million BEVs were sold in 2023). Electric cars are also a strong driver in the production and development of a host of ancillary products, such as lithium-ion batteries, electric motors, power electronics, and all the advanced and critical materials that go into these supply chains.

 

 

This IDTechEx research report contains global market analysis based on extensive sales and technical data. This includes analysis of key, best-selling models, average battery capacity, and motor trends. IDTechEx breaks down the 14.4 million plug-in vehicles sold in 2023 to reveal the underlying trends in this fast-evolving market. Key market aspects discussed include:

 

Up until now, the electric car market has primarily been driven by consumer preference and generous government incentives. This has greatly benefitted early adopters, but outside of China EVs have mainly been vehicles in the premium luxury segment. However, the landscape is shifting, particularly in Europe. Governments are withdrawing subsidies, the 'carrot', and replacing them with the 'stick': tougher CO₂ regulations. From now on, increasingly large shares of a manufacturer's sales must be zero emission to avoid astronomical fines. For the EU, the next tightening will be in 2025, with a further hike in 2030 before a full ICE ban in 2035. Manufacturers and countries are split on these rules, with some protesting and others acquiescing. In the absence of a major change in regulations, IDTechEx expects that EV sales must be drastically improved next year to avoid billions in fines.

 

 

Although Europe has the strictest CO₂ policies, the USA also has two sets of regulations from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and California Air Resources Board (CARB). These will drive increased electric car sales in the world's second-largest car market.

 

IDTechEx expects China, the world's biggest car market by volume, could reach the extraordinary milestone in 2024 of 50% of new car sales being 'New Energy Vehicles' (NEVs, incl. BEV and PHEV). This has drastically outpaced the government's expectations, forcing them to adjust the dual-credit system to reflect this. China may have reached a critical mass in EV adoption and now no longer needs to rely on a system of regulation. Plug-in hybrids are proving especially popular in China, as unlike other regions they are treated no differently from a subsidy perspective than BEVs despite essentially being ICE cars with an electric motor.

 

Electric vehicle technology is primarily driven by the 'big three' - Li-ion batteries, traction motors, and power electronics.

 

Not all lithium-ion batteries are the same, although they leverage the same basic chemical principles. Technology diversification has emerged as a key strategy for dealing with supply chain volatility and shortages. EV manufacturers have long been searching for greater vehicle ranges, and many settled on nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) type batteries due to their high energy density. However, NMC has shown itself to rely on vulnerable supply chains due to the concentrations of nickel, cobalt, and manganese. These materials are also higher cost, resulting in higher cost batteries. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) has seen a resurgence in recent years. Initially disregarded for electric car use due to its relatively low energy density, the cathode has seen increased popularity due to a variety of reasons. These include cell-to-pack innovations that allow for a higher pack energy density (offsetting the low cell energy density). Demand for low-cost models, with a smaller required driving range, also presents a positive outlook for LFP batteries.

 

 

This report contains granular 20-year forecasts & analysis, including:

This report provides critical market intelligence across the electric car markets containing data up to H1 2024.

 

 

 

所有报告购买订单均包括与一名专家分析师进行 30 分钟的电话交谈，专家分析师将帮助您将报告中的重要发现与您正在处理的业务问题联系起来。这需要在购买报告后的三个月内使用。

如果您对这一报告有任何疑问，请随时联系我们的报告团队 research@IDTechEx.com 或致电我们的销售经理：

AMERICAS (USA): +1 617 577 7890

ASIA (Japan): +81 3 3216 7209

ASIA (Korea): +82 10 3896 6219

ASIA: +81 70 3152 1209

EUROPE (UK) +44 1223 812300