Automotive & Electric Vehicles Report

Autonomous Vehicles Land, Water, Air 2015-2035

Technology, timelines, forecasts: Car, UGV, AUV, UAV, drone, mobile robot

Over 40 million cars will have sophisticated autonomy in 2035
Chief executives, business planning and marketing VPs and other interested parties such as investors need to grasp what is one market - autonomous vehicles of every type - and how they have so many components and systems in common. They wish to benchmark best practice and identify trends and this report is the first to pull it all together. Uniquely, it covers the whole topic of autonomous vehicles on-road, off-road, on water, underwater and in the air, whether carrying passengers or not. Indeed, those that are only occasionally autonomous during use and those that are only weakly autonomous are identified and discussed, not least because most of them are headed to be fully autonomous in due course. Autonomous cars are dealt with soberly in the context of greater successes.
Only this report is up to date and global in reach, being based on interviews, events and data analysis almost entirely in 2015 and 2014. It is not an academic treatise nor is it simply a consolidation of what is on the web. A high proportion of the tables and figures are original and the jargon is fully explained. There are slides from recent conferences across the world. It is not evangelism: it is analysis, so the negatives are also presented.
The emphasis is on lessons of success and failure and what comes next particularly focussed on business success, with lead indicators of such success. Timelines to 2040 of market, technology and allied advances are given and detailed forecasts of sales of autonomous vehicles from 2015-2025 particularly concentrate on numbers, unit value and total market value. Because by far the most autonomous vehicles are and will be electrically driven, there is particular detail on forecasting these vehicles by land, water and air and identifying which of these will have a substantially autonomous content in future. 30 minutes of free consultancy comes with each report purchase to fill in the gaps.
The Executive Summary and Conclusions is sufficient for those with little time to get a good grasp of the subject. It covers definitions, the spectrum of partial to total autonomy and highly automated to fully automated vehicles. The benefits and paybacks, relative degree of difficulty, hype curve for 10 families of autonomous vehicles, technology and market sizes and timelines are clearly presented in totally original new analysis. Many thought leaders and analysts are quoted, not just IDTechEx. The Introduction then looks at more definitions, purposes, arguments for and against, drive train technology, control and navigation technology, autonomy without infrastructure and a profusion of military and non-military examples with technology summarised.
Other chapters variously detail personal, industrial, commercial and military autonomous land vehicles now and in future, marine vehicles particularly the very successful Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV). Then come Unmanned Aerial Vehicles that are or will be autonomous particularly examining the burgeoning Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (SUAV) and their increasingly varied uses plus the technology making this possible. That includes collaborative swarming and Wireless Sensor (mesh) Networks (WSN).
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Table of Contents
1.3.Sophistication vs continuity
1.4.Highly automated and fully automated
1.5.Benefits and paybacks
1.6.Degree of difficulty
1.7.Why go autonomous?
1.8.Hype curve for autonomous vehicles land, water, air
1.10.Market size
1.11.Effect of 2015 oil price collapse on electric vehicles
1.12.Lessons from SMMT Connected London March 2015
1.13.Coordinating autonomy and energy independence in vehicles
1.14.News in September 2016 - Volvo first in the world with self-driving truck in underground mine
1.15.Buses will be taxis will be buses
2.2.Vibrant sectors
2.3.Drive Train Technology
2.4.Control and navigation technology
2.4.1.Vehicle with or without infrastructure
2.4.2.Autonomous land vehicle without infrastructure
2.5.Autonomous driving or green driving?
2.6.Effect of 2015 oil price collapse on electric vehicles
2.7.Buses will be taxis will be buses
3.1.System architecture and technology
3.2.Sensor Individual Technologies
3.3.Autonomous Vehicles Research Platforms
3.4.Cameras in drones
3.6.Velodyne LiDAR
4.1.Autonomous tractors
4.2.Agricultural autonomous quadbike
4.3.Agriculture multi-purpose platforms
4.4.Agriculture and mining commonality
4.5.Concept autonomous tractor development - August 2016
5.1.1.Robot vacuum cleaners
5.1.2.Robot lawn mowers
5.1.3.Sidewalk delivery robot
5.1.4.Land-based military
5.1.5.Force multiplier
5.1.6.Many operating modes and programs
5.1.7.Lockheed Martin AMAS kits
5.1.8.US Army technology roadmap
5.1.9.Imaging and Payload UGV Technology
5.1.10.Evolution of Technology Standards, COTS and Engineering Innovation
6.3.1.Uber's self driving cars - August 2015
6.4.1.BMW says autonomous i NEXT will be available in 2021
6.6.Nissan IDS Concept
6.8.UK Autodrive consortium
6.9.Delphi autonomous car 2015
6.10.DOT Product USA
6.11.nuTonomy has launched the first-ever public trial of a robo-taxi service - August 2016
6.12.Autonomous car research in Korea EVS28 exhibition and conferences Korea
6.12.2.The Korea smart car development activities
7.1.2.coModule autonomous bike
7.1.3.Disaster search and rescue
7.2.Agriculture and mining
7.3.1.Autonomous shuttles in Switzerland
8.1.1.Unmanned boat gathering oil USA
8.1.2.ReVolt unmanned zero emission short sea ship of the future
9.2.Large AUVs
9.3.Small AUVs
9.4.Swimmers vs gliders
9.4.3.Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution USA
9.4.4.Monterey Bay Aquarium Ocean Research Institute USA
9.4.5.Florida Atlantic University USA
9.4.6.OceanServer Technology USA
9.4.7.Kongsberg Norway
9.4.8.Teledyne USA, Iceland
9.4.9.Autosub6000 UK
9.4.10.a.r.s Technologies GmbH Germany
9.4.11.DRDO India
9.4.12.JAMSTEC Japan
9.4.13.NASA USA
9.5.Deploying AUVs Canada
9.6.Wave and sun powered sea gliders
9.6.1.Virginia Institute of Marine Science USA
9.6.2.Falmouth Scientific Inc USA
9.6.3.Liquid Robotics USA
9.7.Network of unmanned undersea platforms assist manned vessels
9.8.Biomimetic unmanned underwater craft
9.8.1.Robot jellyfish USA and Germany
10.1.1.Definitions and scope
10.2.1.Diving UAV
10.3.Small unmanned aerial vehicles
10.3.2.Airbus becomes a quadcopter user in 2014
10.3.3.UAR postal delivery
10.3.4.AeroVironment Raven, Puma, Hummingbird
10.3.5.AirShip Technologies Group
10.3.6.Hirobo Japan
10.3.7.Lockheed Martin seeds
10.3.8.Robot insects USA
10.3.9.University of Michigan bat, solar plane USA
10.3.10.Lite Machines Corporation USA
10.3.11.NRL launch an unmanned aerial vehicle from a submerged submarine
10.3.12.Quadcopter piloted by smartphone: Vienna University of Technology
10.4.Some new uses of small UAVs 2014-5
10.4.1.Mini helicopters tracking weeds Australia
10.4.2.Drones learn how diseases spread Malaysia
10.4.3.Drones monitor killer whales Canada
10.4.4.NMSU tests unmanned aircraft over active mine USA
10.5.Swarming, self-healing networks of UAVs USA
10.6.Swarming 3D eye-bots in Germany
10.7.Large electrical UAVs
10.8.Planetary exploration
10.9.DOD upper atmosphere dirigible USA
10.9.2.VESPAS Europe
10.9.3.AeroVironment Helios and Global Observer
10.10.Aurora Flight Sciences USA
10.11.Lockheed Martin USA
10.11.1.Airbus HAPS solar plane
10.11.2.Facebook vs Google
10.11.3.Boeing and Versa USA, QinetiQ & Newcastle University UK
10.11.4.Japanese solar sail to Venus
10.11.5.NASA testing electric propulsion
10.12.UAV payload market
10.12.1.Amazon drone delivery
10.12.2.UAVs can recharge their batteries by perching on power lines
1.1.Main terminology of autonomous (in grey) vs remote controlled vehicles and typical technology
1.2.Timeline 2015-2017
1.3.Timeline 2018-2020
1.4.Timeline 2024-2040
1.5.Sophistication vs continuity of use of autonomous and partially autonomous vehicles by type.
1.6.Examples of benefits of L4 autonomy in vehicles
1.7.Some recent positive remarks from thought leaders about autonomous cars
1.8.Some reasons for making land, water and air vehicles autonomous
1.9.Challenges and issues for autonomous cars. The most difficult aspects are shown in red.
1.10.Recent comments pointing to difficulties with autonomous road vehicles
1.11.Technologies of existing and planned autonomous vehicles by type of function
1.12.The sales of L3 production cars in number million with capability of self-driving through most or all of a journey on regular roads 2015-2035 by region
1.13.Number, unit value and total market value for L3 production cars with capability of self-driving through most or all of a journey on regular roads globally 2015-2035 and value of on-board autonomy systems
1.14.40 categories of electric vehicle and potential for L3 or L4 autonomous versions. 100% now in blue. Highest potential green.
1.15.Number of electric vehicles sold globally (in thousands) 2015-2025 by 40 categories with those having most potential for strong autonomy
3.1.Autonomous system descriptions and our comments
3.2.System classifications
3.3.Summary of the main individual sensors for autonomous vehicles
3.4.Analysis of different approaches to autonomous vehicles
10.1.Data for RQ-11A version of AeroVironment Raven
1.1.Purchaser pull vs typical impediments for different types of strongly autonomous vehicle. Well adopted in grey, considerable success in the coming decade yellow, applications having major success in ten years or more red.
1.2.Further sub-degrees of road vehicle autonomy
1.3.UK third party injury claims frequency for AEB equipped vs all vehicles
1.4.Range of potential fuel economy improvements in miles per US gallon for conventional, hybrid and autonomous cars
1.5.Hype curve for autonomous vehicles land, water and air
1.6.The sales of L3 production cars in number million with capability of self-driving through most or all of a journey on regular roads 2015-2035 by region
1.7.Unit value of L3 production cars with capability of self-driving through most or all of a journey on regular roads globally 2015-2035
1.8.Total market value of production cars with capability of self-driving through most or all of a journey on regular roads globally 2015-2035 compared with value of their autonomy systems
1.9.Lidar sales dollars 2015-2035
1.10.EV forecasts $ billion 2014-2025
1.11.Bosch view of benefits of increasingly autonomous driving
1.12.Intelligent mobility roadmap
1.13.Bosch roadmap
1.14.Driver monitoring
1.15.Nissan safety shield
1.16.Key technology areas according to Bosch and Nissan
1.17.Implementation of intelligence
1.18.Key elements of autonomous drive
1.19.A Volvo project
1.20.Nissan incremental timeline
1.21.Regulatory issues - Bosch opinion
1.22.Bosch view of megatrends
1.23.Bosch conclusions
1.24.EIV: not just adding something to a vehicle
1.25.Autonomous operation + EIV: a synergistic ecosystem
1.26.Selection of IDTechEx images taken at Barclays event London September 2016
2.1.Unmanned marine vehicles terminology
2.2.Passenger car low carbon technology roadmap
2.3.Basic technology of an autonomous land vehicle
2.4.Google autonomous car basics
2.5.Selection of IDTechEx images taken at Barclays event London September 2016
3.1.System architecture for typical autonomous vehicles
3.2.Functional diagram of autonomous vehicle platform
3.3.A simplified hypothetical view of sensors on a car and how they detect hazards on the road
3.4.LabVIEW graphic of sensors on cars
3.5.Lidar captures party sequence in Radiohead's House of Cards 3D data music "video"
3.6.Lidar mounted in a vehicle captures out door sequence in Radiohead's House of Cards 3D data music "video
3.7.The detection of pedestrians by radar sensors is an area of increasing research.
3.8.Radar comparison
3.9.Price of commercially available autonomous vehicle sensors with different specifications
3.10.The research vehicle platform of the V charge project
3.11.One autonomy solution for cars
3.12.This sensor can be seen better in the figure below, on top of Google's last prototype of self-driving car
3.13.Caterpillar command system
3.14.Lidar on construction and mining vehicle
3.15.The HDL-64E S2 provides high definition 3D information about the surrounding environment
3.16.Examples of SUAV rechargeable lithium batteries. Top: Flight Power "EVO 20" lithium polymer battery. Bottom: Sion Power lithium sulphur
3.17.Tamron lens systems suitable for drones.
4.1.ATC's first product, eDrive, turns old tractors into better-than-new tractors.
4.2.Intellectual Property
4.3.Market opportunity
4.4.ATC retrofit competitor assessment in 2015
4.5.ATC assessment of competitors' technology in 2015
4.6.ATC's Long-term Vision - The Spirit
4.7.Kienze autonomous tractor concept in 2011.
4.8.Rogue Rovers Farm Dogg autonomous quadbike
4.9.Bosch's "Bonirob" agricultural robot
4.10.Bonirob can distinguish between crops and weeds
4.11.The robot is being developed at Deepfield Robotics
4.12.Grizzly robot electric vehicle for agriculture and mining
4.13.Concept autonomous tractor technology developed by CHH Industrial
5.1.Dyson 360 Eye robot vacuum cleaner
5.2.Some robot lawn mowers on sale in 2015
5.3.The Starship robots are designed to operate on pedestrian pavements
5.4.Squad Mission Support System (SMSS) from Lockheed Martin
5.5.Examples of how the AMAS kits can be used in a variety of military vehicles to promote varying levels of autonomy
5.6.Control schematic
5.7.The ADLINK HPERC is a sealed, rugged COTS computing platform incorporating industry standard technology and long-life processing architecture
6.1.Google experimental autonomous car
6.2.Uber has acquired Otto, a 90-plus person technology startup whose mission is to rethink transportation
6.3.BMW robocar
6.4.Mercedes autonomous car concept
6.5.Nissan IDS Concept
6.6.nuTonomy - the first-ever public trial of a robo-taxi service
6.7.Hanyang University AV work
6.8.The Korea smart car development activities
7.1.Grizzly robot electric vehicle for agriculture and mining
7.2.Autonomous shuttle in Switzerland
8.1.Seaswarm solar powered autonomous boat gathering oil
9.1.Thomas Hoover and Brett Hobson work on the long-range AUV
9.2.The Ocean Explorer AUV
9.3.Ocean Voyager II AUV
9.4.Kongsberg HUGIN swimmer AUV on Republic of Korea Navy ship
9.5.Royal New Zealand Navy assist the search for a sunken ferry in 2009 using Kongsberg AUVs
9.6.Remus 600 - not identical with the LBS version
9.7.Hydroid Remus 6000 AUV
9.8.Hydroid Remus 100 AUV
9.9.Gavia AUV schematic
9.11.AUV from a.r.s Technologies
9.12.Indian AUV-150
9.14.URASHIMA mission profile
9.15.Specification for JAMSTEC long range AUV
9.16.The DepthX vehicle from NASA
9.17.Wave and sun power recharging a glider AUV before it resumes its mission
9.18.Wave and sun powered sea glider
9.19.Autonomous wave glider
9.20.PACX Wave Glider
9.21.Hydra system
9.23.Japanese robot jellyfish
10.1.Planned use of DSRC for safety
10.2.Gannet diving and planned Cormorant military spy plane/submarine
10.3.AeroVironment Raven
10.4.Raven enhancement
10.5.Aqua Puma
10.6.Military hummingbird
10.7.The CybAero UAV
10.8.V2 Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)
10.9.Lockheed flying cameras based on tree seeds
10.10.The TechJect flying bug is not yet autonomous but it can fly like a bird and hover like a bug
10.11.Examples of robot insects
10.12.UAS nano swarm vignette
10.13.Robobee objective
10.14.COM-BAT concept
10.15.Lite Machines Voyeur UAV
10.16.Voyeur in action
10.17.The Quadcopter-Team: Annette Mossel, Christoph Kaltenriner, Hannes Kaufmann, Michael Leichtfried (left to right.)
10.18.UAS far term implementation by the US Army
10.19.The sensor system
10.20.Planned upper atmosphere dirigible for military use
10.21.AeroVironment Helios
10.22.Global Observer first flight August 2010
10.23.Military deployment of solar/ fuel cell UAVs
10.24.Odysseus self assembling unmanned electric UAV
10.25.Sunlight Eagle
10.26.Lockheed Martin morphing electric UAV
10.27.Integrated Sensor Is Structure (ISIS) smart airship
10.28.Lockheed Martin solar airship and P791 concepts
10.31.GL-10 Greased Lightning
10.32.GL-10 in horizontal flight

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Report Statistics

-Forecasts to2035
-Last updateSep 2016


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