Automotive & Electric Vehicles Report

Electric Buses 2018-2038

Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Company Assessment

Brand new for July 2017
As people move to cities, car sales peak but electric bus sales rise to over $500 billion by 2028
Electric Buses Reinvented: $500 Billion Market
This report of over 150 information-packed pages is a complete rewrite of the annual IDTechEx report on electric buses. Prepared by respected analysts, it benchmarks buses and other forms of electric vehicle and technologies to reveal the tipping points and radical innovations arriving soon. Daimler and Toyota have recently instituted crash programs on pure electric vehicles: China has done a U turn on hybrid buses that do not plug in. Implications? See the league table of largest EV makers and how more and more of them make buses. The killer blow for new vehicles is lower price up front: see when each bus type hits this.
Technologies are carefully explained with pros and cons with a unique technology roadmap for 2018-2038. Only in this report do you see the full picture of where we are headed - even to energy independent buses (one already on sale) and then energy positive buses (we propose a design). See how they will be leveraging technologies going commercial next year outside the bus industry. Learn how the bus is being reinvented as many other things from the trolley bus that works pure electric where there is no catenary to the traffic-straddling bus and many forms of road train from "Bus Rapid Transit" to "Autonomous Rail Transit" that does not use rails. Autonomy is a focus of the report, particularly explaining the design and future of the small merged car/taxi/buses being trialled - another new category.
In 2010 virtually all new buses had an internal combustion engine yet 20 years later very few will. Why? Implications for the value chain? As if that is not enough, most componentry, systems and bodywork is being radically changed. For example what comes after the monocoque body now replacing the chassis? Why is power electronics becoming more important than batteries? In this business, simply extrapolating the past is useless.
The approach is creative and predictive way beyond the blinkered view given by traditional box ticking market research. Ongoing Interviews are carried out globally by PhD level multilingual technologists. The Executive Summary and Conclusions clarifies the extreme melodrama of what is now happening. New infograms explain why car sales will peak globally and how buses benefit. Forecasts for 2018-2028 bus type and region explain major regional differences. Learn why 30 years of fuel cell bus trials continue whereas almost every type of bus is now available commercially as pure electric and hybrid without a fuel cell. Understand benefits and the future.
The Introduction explains how the move to cities boosts buses: many detailed graphs are presented. Learn efficiency of different modes in cities. Four key factors are shown to drive change in type and number of buses bought to 2040. See the issues of energy use, emissions, cost savings and progress to energy independence. See statistics for the commercial vehicle and bus business.
Chapter 3 China analyses its dominance and global rollout of electric buses. Yutong and BYD are profiled and others compared. Chapter 4 India appraises its recent decision to replace 150,000 diesel buses very quickly. Chapters 5 and 6 are Americas. Chapter 7 Europe.
Chapter 8 is School Buses: newly significant - numbers in the USA are large and, in China, potentially large. Statistics reveal many strong reasons for going autonomous. Chapter 9 is a tour de force of the technologies and their rapid change with reasons, predictions and more. Fuel cells, structural electronics, many new forms of power electronics, more motors per vehicle, autonomy, energy harvesting, supercapacitors replacing batteries, new charging options, software and services- it is all here with new examples.
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Table of Contents
1.1.Focus of this report
1.2.Types of bus
1.3.Population rises, cities dominate, parking unsustainable
1.4.Why adopt buses?
1.5.Peak in car sales k - goodbye to many things
1.6.Why go electric?
1.6.1.Drivers of bus electrification
1.6.2.Emissions cause much more injury than previously realised
1.6.3.Benefits of pure electric bus powertrains and to some extent hybrid
1.7.Examples of leadership: focus on pure electric now
1.8.Bus powertrain trend, value chain rewritten
1.8.1.Powertrain trend
1.8.2.Value chain rewritten
1.9.Buses 2010-2030: an industry reborn
1.10.Market drivers
1.10.1.Prosperity collides with urbanisation
1.10.2.Changes in society and technology feed off each other
1.11.Electric bus market forecasts worldwide
1.11.1.Electric bus market forecast 2018-2028 number
1.11.2.Electric bus market forecast 2018-2028 unit price $k
1.11.3.Electric bus market forecast 2018-2028 $ billion market value
1.11.4.Possible scenario for pure electric bus sales by region number k in 2030
1.11.5.Backup data 2018 orders and expansion: examples
1.11.6.Backup data 2019/2021 orders and advances: examples
1.12.League table of EV manufacturers 2018 $ billion: winners make buses
1.13.China buses go global: cost advantages
1.13.1.China cost advantage plotted
1.13.2.How can bus manufacturers outside China compete?
1.14.Technologies important for buses 2018-2028
1.15.Bus technology timeline 2018-2040
1.16.Proliferations of bus types and crossovers
1.17.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2017
1.18.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2018
1.19.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2019
1.20.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2020
1.21.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2021
1.22.Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2022 and beyond
2.1.Prosperity, parking and bad planning
2.2.Global situation: public transport
2.2.1.Cities lead
2.2.2.Dense cities use most public transport and cities are getting denser
2.2.3.On-road transport in cities (where 80% of people will live) mainly buses: small buses now a focus
2.3.Technology to the rescue
2.3.1.Electrification, autonomy, sharing
2.3.3.Effect of four elements in 2050
2.3.4.Consistently strong policies needed regardless of setbacks
2.4.What is happening about emissions?
2.4.1.Cheating but improving
2.4.2.Worldwide regulatory emissions roadmap for heavy duty diesel
2.5.Electric bus dynamics
2.6.Anatomy of the automotive industry
2.6.1.Global automotive production 2016
2.6.2.New Commercial vehicle registrations or sales are mainly static but strong growth in East Asia
2.6.3.Global ranking of automotive manufacturers by number made 2015 OICA
2.6.4.Patchy recording of heavy bus sales shows slight growth
2.6.5.Largest bus manufacturers by number to 2015
3.1.Yutong and the story of buses in China
3.1.1.Yutong bus sales vs competition in 2015
3.1.2.Yutong positioning in 2017
3.2.China leapfrogging in adoption and some bus technology
3.3.Broad technical advances in electric buses in China
3.4.China large and medium bus sales 2014/2015
3.5.China hybrid bus sales and news 2014/2015
3.6.E-bus sales numbers China 2016: Yutong, Zhongtong and BYD grow strongly
3.7.Performance in 2017 compared
3.8.Thirteenth Five Year Plan (2015-2020) (Hybrid & Electric) Buses
3.9.China charging station and bus % subsidies
3.10.Restriction of e-bikes helps buses
3.11.BYD: the Chinese electric bus maker with the most impressive global rollout
3.11.1.Global rollout
4.1.Watch India: the most ambitious switch of all
4.2.India 2018: orders, uncertainty and advances
5.1.Latin America - large numbers
6.1.Unique mix
6.2.Example of pure electric bus leadership: Proterra
7.1.1.Example of excellence: Solaris bus & coach Poland
8.1.North America
8.1.2.School buses choking children to death, unnecessary fires
8.1.3.US school bus statistics 2016
8.1.4.USA: world's largest school bus fleet
8.1.6.Autonomy needed: driver shortages and cost escalation
8.1.7.Pure electric powertrains needed: longer life, much less maintenance compared to current diesel shown below
8.1.8.US leading school bus manufacturers
8.1.9.School bus classification and examples
8.1.10.US school bus examples
8.2.China: big potential, not much happening yet
8.3.School buses: USA and China compared
9.1.1.Comparison of powertrain options mild hybrid
9.1.3.How to make a 48V mild hybrid in latest form
9.1.4.Assessment by Professor Pietro Perlo
9.1.5.Exit from fuel cell vehicles as pure electric vehicles "steal their clothes"
9.2.Value chain of hybrid buses
9.3.Pure electric powertrain is simpler and later bypasses many Tier One suppliers
9.4.Power electronics becomes more important than batteries even in pure electric vehicles
9.5.Structural electronics will come to buses Many design solutions persist for the same types of bus
9.7.UITP and MB summary of bus technologies
9.8.Here come more small buses
9.9.Autonomous bus and bus-taxi
9.9.1.Overview concept
9.9.3.Large smart windows needed
9.10.Electric traction motors for buses in context
9.10.2.Example BYD
9.10.3.No differential or prop shaft
9.10.4.Innovative two motor formats: Mercedes Vito minibus
9.10.5.New electric drivetrain from partners UQM, Eaton and Pi Innovo
9.11.Traction batteries
9.12.Traction supercapacitors for hybrid buses
9.13.Traction supercapacitors for pure electric buses
9.14.Software and services: example Citymapper Smartbus
9.15.1.Fully autonomous: buses or taxis, rarely privately owned cars
9.15.2.Hardware replaced by software & content
9.15.3.Hype curve for autonomy today
9.15.4.Autonomous shuttles in Switzerland
9.15.5.Gateway autonomous bus UK
9.15.6.IBM Olli bus: autonomous with many services
9.16.Charging the battery
9.16.2.Example: ABB TOSA: overhead top up means less battery
9.16.3.Contactless charging
9.16.4.Qualcomm, FABRIC, Honda
9.16.5.Dynamic charging future
9.17.Towards energy independence: increasing bus range
9.18.Radical innovation
9.18.1.Transit Elevated Bus TEV rides above traffic
9.18.2.Taxi-car-bus ride sharing has huge benefit
9.19.Energy Independent Electric Vehicles EIV
9.19.2.Energy independent electric bus: NFH-H microbus China
9.19.3.Energy positive large buses will come

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