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Near Field Communication (NFC) 2014-2024

Mobile phone and other NFC: market forecasts, technology, players

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Description

Near Field Communication (NFC) is mainly useful in mobile phones and tablets for close range transactions/data exchange. The phone becomes an RFID reader or tag. It can read tags on bottles and posters. Over 200 million NFC-enabled mobile phones have recently been deployed: Manufacturers controlling 85% of the mobile phone and tablet market include it. This report critically looks at uses, forecasts, technology, global situation, competing technologies, timelines.
 
NFC could never be used in a major way until it was widely deployed in devices. In the last year that deployment has happened very rapidly. Now the questions are what will be the major applications? Who in the value chain will mainly benefit? The world's leading financial card companies, mobile phone operators, manufacturers, chip makers, consumer goods companies and others are intensely interested and investing strongly.
 
Worldwide shipments of PCs, mobile phones, tablets and derivatives, millions 2014*
 
*For the full forecast data please purchase this report
 
Source: IDTechEx
NFC is a set of short-range wireless technologies, typically requiring a distance of 4cm or less to initiate a connection partly because people do not trust making secure transactions at the longer distances typical with Bluetooth, WiFi and other short range radio protocols. The most popular mobile phone and tablet operating system is heavily committed to NFC.
 
Mobile phones continue to be by far the most important potential and actual focus of NFC; the technology is particularly suitable for them. The SIM card in your mobile phone is a smart card identifying your account to the network. On NFC phones, the SIM is being extended to act as the Secure Element that can hold other apps such as payment cards. For example, NFC allows you to share small packets of data between an NFC tag and an Android-powered device, or between two Android-powered devices. Most contactless point-of-sale payment systems use an NFC-compatible contactless interface and many of the world's transportation access systems are NFC compatible so considerable infrastructure is already in place for use by NFC-enabled devices. Although progress with transport systems and payments is slow.
 
Sales of NFC enabled phones vs all mobile phones millions 2013-2015* with % penetration
 
*For the full forecast data please purchase this report
 
Source: IDTechEx
 
Many trials of other potential uses of NFC continue to be created but they tend to be a poor indication of what happens at rollout. To say contactless cards are NFC is playing with words: they predate NFC and would succeed if NFC had never been invented.
 
This report examines the existing and future applications of NFC technology and the major players competing in the market, along with ten year market forecasts. It covers issues such as standardization, security and licensing, plus global progress split by country and key interviews from 2013.
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Further information
If you have any questions about this report, please do not hesitate to contact our report team at research@IDTechEx.com or call one of our sales managers:
 
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Americas, Asia Pacific, Oceania & Spain
Raoul Escobar-Franco - US: +1 617 577 7890
 
UK, Germany, Denmark & Japan
Robert Purser - UK: +44 (0)1223 812 300
Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1.Timelines for NFC adoption
1.2.Great potential
1.3.Forecasts 2014-2024
1.4.The purpose of NFC
1.5.NFC Forum
1.6.Massive rollout in 2013
1.7.Sensor fusion and NFC
1.8.Internet of Things and NFC
1.9.Security and privacy concerns
1.10.Lessons from NFC World Congress Nice France September 2013
1.11.Other impediments to use of NFC
1.12.Apple iBeacon
2.WHAT IS NFC?
2.1.NFC modes
2.2.GSMA
2.3.Store Logistics and Payment with NFC: StoLPaN
2.4.Other standardization bodies involved
2.5.Security - a tradeoff
2.6.Recent successful security attacks
2.7.Embedded secure element vs SIM secure element
2.8.Licensing IP
3.COMPETITION FOR NFC
3.1.Digital cash and NFC
3.2.Digital wallet
3.3.Digital wallets and similar functions in action
3.3.1.Apple Passbook
3.3.2.cashcloud
3.3.3.Dwolla
3.3.4.Geode by iCache
3.3.5.Google wallet
3.3.6.ISIS
3.3.7.Lemon Wallet
3.3.8.PayPal and Chirpify
3.3.9.Square Wallet
3.3.10.Venmo
4.NFC ACHIEVEMENTS AND CHALLENGES
4.1.NFC Achievements
4.2.NFC challenges
5.PHASES OF NFC ROLLOUT & MARKET FORECASTS
5.1.Phases of NFC rollout
5.2.Market forecasts
5.2.1.Market for PCs, tablets, mobile phones and derivatives
5.2.2.Market for NFC-enabled mobile phones and other devices
5.2.3.e-commerce forecasts
6.GLOBAL PROGRESS WITH NFC IN 2013
6.1.Australia
6.1.1.Intentions of European Telcos
6.2.Austria
6.3.Canada
6.4.Chile
6.5.China
6.6.Czech Republic
6.7.Finland
6.8.France
6.9.Germany
6.10.Hong Kong
6.11.India
6.12.Ireland
6.13.Israel
6.14.Italy
6.15.Japan
6.15.1.Pioneering Sony, payment and transport statistics, Felica
6.16.Korea
6.17.Malaysia
6.18.New Zealand
6.19.Nigeria
6.20.Poland
6.21.Romania
6.22.Russia
6.23.Singapore
6.24.Slovakia
6.25.Spain
6.26.Taiwan
6.27.Turkey
6.28.Ukraine
6.29.United Kingdom
6.30.USA
7.NFC IMPLICATIONS OF SENSOR FUSION, INTERNET OF THINGS, RFID, INDOOR POSITIONING SYSTEMS
7.1.Sensor fusion and NFC
7.2.The Internet of Things and NFC
7.3.RFID and NFC
7.4.How governments drive most of the market
7.5.Non-government successes
7.6.Continued recession-proof rapid growth
7.7.Strange behaviour
7.8.Technical trends
7.9.Favourite RFID frequency
7.10.Watch the BRICS
7.11.Russia
7.12.China
7.13.Today's leaders continue to excel
7.14.Wider still and wider
7.15.Analysis of cumulative number of RFID projects analysed
7.16.Market projections 2012-2022
7.17.Rapid growth
7.18.RFID during turmoil in the global economy
7.19.Contactless smart cards dominate by value
7.20.RFID Forecasts by tag location - passive tags
7.21.RFID forecasts by tag location - active and battery assisted tags
7.22.RFID will not be big in China, it will be huge
7.23.Lessons from the last ten years
7.24.Pallet/case tagging
7.25.Drugs
7.26.Airline Baggage
7.27.Retail apparel, item level
7.28.RFID cards, tickets and NFC
7.29.Animals
7.30.Logistics, Asset Tracking, Manufacturing
7.31.Follow governments
7.32.Active RFID and RTLS comes to the fore
7.33.Billion dollar niches, sometimes with little competition
7.34.New technology
7.35.Impediments to the growth of RFID markets
7.36.Indoor Positioning Systems and NFC
7.37.Real Time Locating Systems
7.38.RTLS takes off
7.39.More advanced forms
7.40.Market size 2013-2024
7.41.The need
7.42.RTLS is mainly about healthcare
7.43.RTLS mainly gets used in the USA
7.44.IPS and RTLS mainly gets developed and made in the USA
7.45.The link between IPS and RTLS
7.46.Commonality of interest is only just beginning
7.47.IPS and RTLS are almost all about large buildings
7.48.Ranking of frequencies by popularity
7.49.ZigBee
7.50.The unique attraction of WiFi
7.51.Basic measuring principle - relative popularity
8.KEY INTERVIEWS IN 2013
8.1.Cubic Transportation Systems, Inc, USA
8.2.MeaWallet, Norway
8.3.Nissin, Czech Republic
8.4.RBR, UK
8.5.Smart-TEC, Germany
8.6.Tag & Play, France
8.7.Ticketmobile, Norway
8.8.Interview in Japan
APPENDIX 1: GLOSSARY
IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS
IDTECHEX CONSULTANCY
TABLES
1.1.Important milestones in the adoption and use of NFC 2014-2024
1.2.IDTechEx conclusions about the status and potential of NFC technology
1.3.Comments by supporters and skeptics of NFC in 2013
1.4.Worldwide shipments of PCs, mobile phones, tablets and derivatives, millions 2012-2024 with the most NFC friendly devices highlighted
1.5.Sales of NFC enabled phones vs all mobile phones millions 2012-2024 with % penetration
1.6.Phases of attempted rollout of NFC uses
2.2.NFC compared with other forms of short range radio - Bluetooth, Bluetooth Low Energy, WiFi
2.3.NFC data rate and coding for active (powered) and passive (unpowered) devices
2.4.The good and bad of contactless cards and tickets vs RFID enabled phones
2.5.Modes of NFC security attacks, counter action and compromises arising.
5.1.Phases of attempted rollout of NFC uses
5.2.Worldwide shipments of PCs, mobile phones, tablets and derivatives, millions 2012-2024 with the most NFC friendly devices highlighted
5.3.Sales of NFC enabled phones vs all mobile phones millions 2012-2024 with % penetration
6.1.Main impediment to NFC consumer adoption by country in 2014
7.1.Examples of RFID orders, projects and typical benefits by application
7.2.Total RFID Market Projections in US dollar billions 2012-2022
7.3.Market projections by tag type for 2012-2022
7.4.Number (in millions) of passive tags by application 2012-2022
7.5.Average passive tag price per application in US cents 2012-2022
7.6.Value of passive tags by application 2012-2022 (US Dollar Millions)
7.7.Number (in millions) of active tags by application 2012-2022
7.8.Average active tag price per application in US cents 2012-2022
7.9.Value of active tags by application 2012-2022 (US Dollar Millions)
7.10.Number of tags (billions) total RFID market 2012-2022
7.11.Value US$ billion of total RFID market EXCLUDING CARDS 2012-2022
7.12.Number of tags sold by application in 2011 and the total tag value
7.13.Forecast of global RTLS market by value in millions of dollars 2013-2024
7.14.Primary market objective for IPS vs RTLS
7.15.Survey of 74 case studies of RTLS by application
7.16.Survey of 74 case studies of RTLS by country
7.17.Number of organisations identified in the IPS and RTLS value chains by country
7.18.Relative emphasis on IPS, RTLS or both in the value chain by number of organisations identified in the survey.
7.19.Number times magnitude of potential system spend over the years on IPS and/or RTLS by location
FIGURES
1.1.Forms of NFC and non-NFC digital cash with examples
1.2.Worldwide shipments of PCs, mobile phones, tablets and derivatives, millions 2012-2024 with the most NFC friendly devices highlighted
1.3.Sales of NFC enabled phones vs all mobile phones millions 2012-2024 with % penetration
1.4.Retrevo Pulse study of NFC payment attitudes
1.5.Data rate vs range for short range radio protocols
1.6.Scope of the NFC Forum
1.7.Some of the potential stakeholders in the NFC phone value chain
1.8.NFC in the trough of disillusionment
1.9.Samsung TecTiles
1.10.Sensor fusion - the human model
1.11.Micro electromechanical systems MEMS and sensor fusion
1.12.Sensor fusion enabling context awareness.
1.13.Objects connected to the internet 2012-2020
1.14.Freescale view of The Internet of Things embracing NFC
1.15.Attempt to link the Internet of Things with NFC
1.16.Figure many options for a typical interrogation
1.17.Store Electronic Systems activity in stores up to and including NFC enabled shelf edge devices
1.18.Store Electronic Systems' NFC perception and achievements
1.19.Smart meter potential revealed
1.20.ETRI Programmable NFC sensor card
1.21.NFC labels on display
1.22.Murata and Todo Kogyo ultra-small NFC tags
1.23.Screen with NFC-enabled images
1.24.V Wand - NFC to item then Bluetooth to tablet
1.25.Number of transaction cards on issue globally 2012 and 2018
1.26.Legic experience of NFC phones for secure access and payment
1.27.Various NFC related forecasts by analysts
1.28.NFC collision of mega industries
1.29.A realistic GSMA view at a recent event
1.30.GSMA view of impediments to widespread NFC use in mobile commerce
1.31.Challenge of changes in payment transaction flow and complexity of transportation payment systems
1.32.Infineon vision for NFC in mobile devices
1.33.Sony vision of NFC applications
1.34.Example of NFC beyond payment - one touch listening.
1.35.NFC has its broadest and biggest opportunity beyond payment. NFC labels on London taxi left and train right for instant WiFi access etc.
2.1.Spot the NFC. The inside of a Samsung Galaxy 4 phone
2.2.Some potential and actual uses of NFC
2.3.NFC ecosystem
2.4.NFC underlying layers
2.5.Basic functionality of an NFC enabled phone
2.6.NFC RF standards for coding, modulation and data rate compared
3.1.Forms of NFC and non-NFC digital cash with examples.
3.2.Apple Passbook in action
3.3.Dwolla in action
3.4.Geode wallet
3.5.Google wallet
3.6.ISIS wallet
3.7.Lemon Wallet in action
3.8.PayPal Here in action
3.9.Square Wallet functionality
4.1.Some of the potential stakeholders in the NFC phone value chain
5.1.Billing View NFC survey summary
5.2.Blackberry NFC system
5.3.How you currently use NFC
5.4.Where you want to use NFC
5.5.Worldwide shipments of PCs, mobile phones, tablets and derivatives, millions 2012-2024 with the most NFC friendly devices highlighted
5.6.Sales of NFC enabled phones vs all mobile phones millions 2012-2024 with % penetration
5.7.Global card base by type of card in billions 2012 and 2018 as analysed in 2013
5.8.Global share of payment cards by scheme 2012 as analysed in 2013
6.1.Kontaktpunkt NFC tags
6.2.Sony Felica and the situation in Japan
6.3.Transition approach Felica to NFC
7.1.Sensor fusion - the human model
7.2.Ubiquitous sensors enabling innovative applications that will lead to sensor fusion
7.3.Micro electromechanical systems MEMS and sensor fusion
7.4.Freescale multi-sensor platform
7.5.Sensor fusion enables unprecedented context awareness
7.6.Objects connected to the internet 2012-2020
7.7.Freescale view of The Internet of Things embracing NFC
7.8.Much to leverage in the new approach to the Internet of Things
7.9.Number of case studies by tag location - worldwide
7.10.Number of case studies by project status - worldwide
7.11.Number of case studies active vs passive - worldwide
7.12.Number of case studies by frequency - worldwide
7.13.Number of case studies read-only vs read/write - worldwide
7.14.Number of case studies by applications - worldwide
7.15.Number of case studies by tag shape - worldwide
7.16.Market comparison by tag type and by value chain position from 2012 to 2017
7.17.Forecast of global RTLS market by value in millions of dollars 2013-2024
7.18.Survey of 74 case studies of RTLS by application
7.19.Survey of 74 case studies of RTLS by country
7.20.Number of organisations identified in the IPS and RTLS value chains by country
7.21.Relative emphasis on IPS, RTLS or both in the value chain by number of organisations identified in the survey.
7.22.Ranking of frequencies by popularity in the survey
7.23.Basic RF measuring principle - relative popularity vs ultrasound

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Report Statistics

-Pages222
-Tables33
-Figures84
-Forecasts to2024
 

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