Energy Harvesting Report

Airborne Wind Energy (AWE) 2017-2027

Market forecast, technology roadmap, AWES, CKP, HAWP, BAT: kite, aerostat, drone

Brand new for March 2017
AWE is being prepared for two markets with great potential: large on-grid and small off-grid
 
This report is intended for CEO, business planners, marketing VPs, academics, legislators, commentators, investors and others seeking a balanced, easily read, latest analysis of this newly credible form of high-power energy harvesting. Its emphasis is on commercialisation and the future. Airborne Wind Energy AWE is disruptive because it is much less damaging and intrusive than the traditional wind turbine. Indeed, it is capable of much more with its uniquely low capital cost and easy transportability. That means it is more than a replacement: it is intended to creates new markets, including forming a part of modern forms of standby generator that meet impending emissions directives.
 
AWE has moved from a hobbyist curiosity to attracting around $200 million investment from giants Google, EON, Shell, Schlumberger, Tata, Softbank and others. Two years ago it was widely seen as a solution looking for a problem. However, today, aviation authorities are adapting to accommodate the needs of these kites, tethered wings, aerostats and drones whether they are intended to power a ship, a small farm or - as GW offshore arrays - supplying a national grid. Potentially, AWE will do all that with no emissions and at a fraction of the cost of the conventional wind turbines, down where wind is weaker and more fitful. Clearly things are changing and IDTechEx, after two years of interviews, visits and analysis by PhD level, multi-lingual researchers, can now make sense of it all, including giving profiles of 25 winners and losers. The report appraises what remains between the proponents and commercial success, including attracting the necessary level of next-stage finance and technical assistance. How much? When?
 
This 195 page report is replete with infographics, tables and graphs clarifying the variety of opportunity and technology grouped under the term AWE. It takes a strictly analytical rather than evangelical approach, pointing out that turbines lifted aloft by helium-filled aerostats make sense in Alaska, where solar cells are pretty useless and wind is sometimes weak. However, we counsel that those targeting cheap electricity for farmers with limited resources will have difficulty competing with diesel unless the law tips the playing field or obtaining fuel is problematic.
 
The IDTechEx approach is creative. We believe the new solar roads have a place on commercial ships polluting as much as 30,000 cars and, in tandem with AWE, we believe an electric ship could even become energy independent with zero emissions. We distinguish between AWE applications where the price of grid electricity is critical and where it is irrelevant. Learn the challenges of convincing all interested parties of the safety of these systems. Realistic and improving figures for maintenance, availability and life are crucial.
 
Impediments are appraised such an electrically launched AWE system using significant energy part of the time. We report ways of reducing the intermittency and therefore energy storage needed in an AWE system and we reveal the near-consensus concerning which designs are most predictable and controllable and we assess which proponents are the most promising investments, providing certain limitations are overcome. Learn how the technologies can be leveraged with extending solar panels on the generator and wave power in the offshore support. Could the flying device produce useful solar and wind energy? How realistic is flying much higher? What are the lessons from the proponents that have gone under? What has been said in recent conferences and interviews on the subject? Only here will you access these unique inputs: there are even a number of other IDTechEx reports and consultancy services available if you wish to drill deeper.
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1.Purpose of this report
1.2.Background
1.2.1.Conventional wind power reaches its limits
1.2.2.Parity in sight
1.2.3.Next stage AWE?
1.2.4.More locations
1.2.5.The technical opportunity
1.2.6.Market requirements by parameter for small vs large AWES
1.2.7.Current appraisal of largest addressable markets
1.2.8.No guarantees
1.3.Diesel killer or wind turbine killer?
1.3.1.Kill some diesel: prospect for low power AWEs off-grid
1.3.2.Kill some wind turbines and use "impossibly poor wind" locations: prospect for large on-grid AWEs
1.4.Energy Independent shipping
1.5.Potential for multi-mode
1.6.Choice of height
1.7.Capacity factor
1.8.On-grid vs off-grid, optimal power
1.9.Investment by technology: wrong focus
1.10.Technology choice
1.11.The lightning dilemma
1.12.The illumination dilemma
1.13.Killing birds and bats
1.14.Derisked technology
1.15.Autonomy
1.16.Developers
1.16.1.Most promising future AWE system providers
1.17.Investment timeline
1.18.Technology roadmap 1900-2037
1.19.Commercialisation roadmap 2017-2025
1.19.1.Overview and roadmap
1.19.2.Effect of plummeting cost of offshore wind farms
1.20.Market forecast 2017-2037
1.20.1.Focus
1.21.Sophisticated Technology, Often Primitive Marketing
1.21.1.Over simplification
1.21.2.The addressable market
1.21.3.Offshore
1.21.4.Gensets
1.21.5.Wind power where there is no (ground) wind
1.21.6.Multiple benefits
1.21.7.Energy independent electric vehicles; fully responsive renewable gensets without battery storage: fully responsive wind farms
1.22.Example of opportunity: Ukraine
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Definition of energy harvesting
2.2.Need for high power harvesting
2.3.Characteristics of energy harvesting
2.4.Two very different AWE markets
2.5.Marine: a later option
2.6.HPEH technologies including AWE
2.6.1.Types of application
2.6.2.Technological options
2.7.EH systems
2.8.Multiple energy harvesting
2.8.1.Strong need for AWE multi-mode
2.8.2.Precedents
2.8.3.Multi-mode end game is structural electronics?
2.8.4.Powerweave harvesting and storage e-fiber/ e-textile
2.9.AWE in the big picture
2.9.1.Huge off-grid opportunity for AWE
2.10.HPEH in context: IRENA Roadmap to 27% Renewable
2.11.Electric vehicle end game: free non-stop travel
2.11.1.Dynamic charging
2.11.2.Many harvests together
2.11.3.Many other options
2.11.4.AWE and bladeless wind turbines powering vehicles?
2.11.5.Multi-mode, minimal storage
2.11.6.New storage
2.11.7.Bottom line
2.12.Simpler, more viable off-grid power
2.12.1.Transportable power source
2.12.2.Vehicles approach energy independence
2.12.3.Electric utilities being replaced
2.13.Microgrids attract
2.14.Capacity factors, utilisation factors and load factors
2.15.Offshore energy innovation could leverage AWES
3.ELECTRODYNAMIC AND PHOTOVOLTAIC HARVESTING
3.1.Definition and scope
3.2.Many modes and applications compared
3.2.1.Options by medium
3.2.2.Examples compared
3.2.3.Photovoltaics: Natural AWE partner
4.AIRBORNE WIND ENERGY AWE PRINCIPLES
4.1.Introduction
4.2.The jargon
4.3.Favoured technologies
4.3.1.Aerostat and autogiro
4.3.2.Tethered devices
4.3.3.Passive tether formats
4.4.ABB assessment
4.5.Rotating dual kites the ultimate?
4.6.Main options still taken seriously
5.SOME ACTIVE DEVELOPER/ SUPPORTER PROFILES, INTERVIEWS AND PLANS
5.1.Altaeros Energies USA
5.2.Ampyx Power Netherlands
5.2.1.Ampyx in the past: consistency of purpose and meeting objectives
5.2.2.Ampyx Power in 2017: doing what it said it would do
5.2.3.Airborne Wind Energy questions for Ampyx Power
5.2.4.Update - April 11, 2017
5.3.Artemis Intelligent Power
5.4.AWESCO European Union
5.4.1.PhD programs
5.5.Bruce Banks Sails
5.6.BVG Associates
5.7.Delft University of Technology Netherlands/ Karlsruhe University of Applied Sciences Germany
5.8.e-Kite Netherlands
5.9.EnerKite Germany
5.10.Enevate BV Netherlands
5.11.e-Wind USA
5.12.Imperial College and National Wind Tunnel Facility (NWTF)
5.13.Innovate UK
5.14.Keynvor Morlift Ltd
5.15.Kite Power Solutions UK
5.15.1.Background
5.15.2.The technology
5.15.3.Interview
5.15.4.Further comment
5.16.KiteGen Italy
5.17.Kitemill Norway
5.17.1.Overview
5.17.2.Interview with Kitemill - 25 March 2017
5.18.Kitenergy Italy
5.18.1.Earlier information
5.18.2.Interview
5.19.Kitepower Netherlands
5.19.2.Interview
5.20.KiteX Denmark
5.20.1.Interview
5.21.kPower USA
5.21.1.Overview
5.22.Makani (Google-x)
5.22.1.Overview
5.22.2.The system
5.22.3.Safety
5.22.4.Bold announcements then silence
5.22.5.Specification
5.23.National Composites Centre)
5.24.Open Source AWE
5.25.Pierre Benhaïem, Conception, Troyes Area, France
5.26.Rotokite Italy
5.27.SkySails Power Germany
5.28.Superturbine ™ USA, France
5.28.1.Overview
5.29.TwingTec Switzerland
5.30.University of Limerick
5.31.Windlift USA
5.32.Windswept and Interesting UK
5.33.Xsens Netherlands
6.LESSONS FROM THE PAST
6.1.Guangdong High Altitude Wind Power China/ SkyWind USA
6.2.Highest Wind USA
6.3.Joby Energy USA
6.4.Magenn Power Canada
6.5.Omnidea Portugal
7.EXAMPLES OF INTERVIEWS CONCERNING HIGH POWER ENERGY HARVESTING ON MARINE CRAFT
IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS AND CONSULTANCY
TABLES
1.1.Some challenges
1.2.Comparison of the very different markets for small and large AWES showing features usually essential in red and features sometimes valued in yellow.
1.3.Remote power and microgrid global market $ billion
1.4.Degrees of autonomy for AWES
1.5.Comparison of AWE developers intending commercialisation
1.6.Technology roadmap 1900-2027
1.7.Declared intentions for commercialisation and possible achievements
1.8.IDTechEx forecast of global sales of installed fully-functional AWE systems 30kW and above 2017-2037 number, unit price, market value
2.1.Two addressable markets for AWE
2.2.Examples of uses of HPEH expressed as duration of harvesting available with examples of companies using or developing these applications
2.3.Comparison of desirable features of the EH technologies. Good in colour. Others are poor or not yet clarified.
2.4.Transducer power range of the main technical options for HPEH transducer technologies Source IDTechEx
2.5.Potential for improving energy harvesting efficiency
2.6.Typical power needs increasingly addressed by high power energy harvesting
2.7.Power density provided by different forms of HPEH with exceptionally useful superlatives in yellow. Other parameters are optimal at different levels depending on system design.
2.8.Good features and challenges of the four most important EH technologies in order of importance
3.1.Some modes of high power, 10 watts or more, electrodynamic energy harvesting with related processes highlighted in green
3.2.Examples of actual high power electrodynamic harvesting by type, sub type and manufacturer with comment. Those in volume production now are in yellow, within five years in grey, those with much development but no volume production
FIGURES
1.1.Most advanced wind turbines by year
1.2.Weak and strong business cases within the two main AWE addressable markets.
1.3.Conventional wind turbine compared to AWE.
1.4.Competitive position of AWE against other energy sources. Illustrative and contentious.
1.5.Spider diagram for the attributes of 30-150kW off-grid AWES bought singly, when its key challenges are overcome, compared with diesel gensets, conventional wind turbines and photovoltaics producing similar power.
1.6.Spider diagram for the attributes of 1-5 MW off-grid AWES bought in wind farms, when its key challenges are overcome, compared with conventional wind turbines, tidal and wave power and photovoltaics producing similar power. LCoE =
1.7.How a mobile AWE generator can double as solar in sea container format. We understand that a French company is developing such an AWE=solar sea container but details are as yet secret.
1.8.Typical wind speed vs altitude - some AWE dilemmas
1.9.Average power density at 400ft top and 2000ft bottom where it particularly benefits the large communities in North America central and eastern, Europe and east to Moscow and Ukraine, East Asia central and, less populated, South Am
1.10.On-grid vs off-grid AWE opportunity by power of unit
1.11.Ground-gen a) vs fly-gen b)
1.12.Generation a) and recovery b)
1.13.Scalability, safety and autonomy challenges by type of AWE shown green and conventional wind turbine shown blue.
1.14.Some of the organisations that have been involved in airborne wind energy
1.15.AWE technology by altitude flown/ soon to be flown and trajectory showing figure of eight YoYo pumping action is favourite but some have moved from this to helical or circular. Cloth kites are only a minority now with semi-rigid w
1.16.Investment timeline
1.17.IDTechEx forecast of global sales of AWE systems 2017-2027 number
1.18.IDTechEx forecast of global sales of AWE systems 2017-2027 showing average unit price increasing due to size and power increase
1.19.IDTechEx forecast of global sales of AWE systems 2017-2027 market value
1.20.US average levelized costs for plants entering service in 2018 with IDTechEx indication of AWE targets and diesel generation cost in remote regions shown as blue arrow.
1.21.Conventional wind turbine sales MW yearly 1991-2007. In 2027, expressed in GW, AWE sales may reach conventional wind turbine annual sales of 1998-9.
1.22.Renewable share in Remap 2030 model
1.23.Location of almost all large wind turbines in Ukraine with wind map at ground level.
1.24.Wind turbine at Kiev International Airport
2.1.Proliferation of actual and potential energy harvesting in marine vehicles
2.2.Ship pollution in car equivalents
2.3.Examples of applications being developed 10W-100kW
2.4.EH system diagram
2.5.Forms of multi-mode energy harvesting
2.6.Multiple energy harvesting
2.7.Examples of multiple harvesting
2.8.HPP structure
2.9.Envisaged marine application of HPP also applicable to AWE kites etc. to harvest wind and rain while creating propulsion.
2.10.Powerweave
2.11.HPEH including battery systems related to other off-grid and to on-grid harvesting market values with example of AWE in remote power microgrid. Market figures are approximate for 2016.
2.12.Global installed renewable energy GW cumulative, off-grid and on-grid by source
2.13.Annual share of annual variable renewable power generation on-grid and off-grid 2014 and 2030 if all Remap options are implemented
3.1.Background to PV for energy independent vehicles
3.2.One dream: Solar road/ AWE dynamic vehicle charging.
4.1.AWE conference
4.2.Twind and tumbling wing aerostat concepts top and blimp version and system below.
4.3.Principle of U kite generator
4.4.Passive tether configurations
4.5.Early options for the flying device
4.6.Early Ground-Gen examples of parameters
4.7.View of AWE risks
4.8.ABB assessment
4.9.Tether drag solution
4.10.Main options still taken seriously with examples of developers
5.1.Altaeros presentation
5.2.Altaeros BAT airborne wind turbine compared
5.3.Ampyx Power business plan presented to IDTechEx 2017
5.4.Ampyx Power slides from 2015 - examples
5.5.Ampyx Power staff
5.6.Kite Power 2
5.7.E-Kite system
5.8.e-Kite system
5.9.E-kite ground station
5.10.EnerKite presentation
5.11.Functional components of the 20 kW technology demonstrator developed at Delft University of Technology
5.12.The 20 kW kite power system of TU Delft in operation at the former naval airbase Valkenburg, The Netherlands
5.13.Kite Power Kite
5.14.Laddermill cycle simulation and the maximum instantaneous power chart
5.15.Kiteplane
5.16.eWind system
5.17.e-Wind proposition hiring land from farmers
5.18.Two kite system.
5.19.KiteGen kite providing supplementary power to a ship
5.20.Parameters compared
5.21.Kitemill presentation 2015
5.22.Aircraft, winch and operating station
5.23.Typical vertical wind profiles above boundary layer
5.24.Production and return
5.25.Output power vs wind speed.
5.26.Global development of LCoE for solar and wind compared to the scenario for Airborne Wind.
5.27.Ground generator and kite
5.28.Kitenergy technology
5.29.Operating Data
5.30.Kite-X laboratory
5.31.Makani AWES in action
5.32.Evidence cited by Makani
5.33.Power profile
5.34.Circular trajectory with parameters vs conventional wind turbine.
5.35.600 kW energy kite
5.36.Future models envisaged
5.37.Google patented ideas
5.38.Regions where conventional wind turbines and Makani can operate
5.39.Rotating reeling
5.40.Rotating tether spinning kite collapses for retrieval before next power run.
5.41.Images from assessment
5.42.Skysails system
5.43.Superturbine ™
5.44.TwingTec USP
5.45.W&I kite systems
5.46.PowerPlane
6.1.Guangdong HAWP
6.2.Joby system
6.3.Magenn air rotor system
6.4.Basis of EC FP7 HAWE program headed by Omnidea
7.1.Torqeedo 50kW outboard
7.2.SoelCat

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