Moteurs électriques pour véhicules électriques 2022-2032: IDTechEx

Over 100 million electric vehicle motors required per year by 2032

Moteurs électriques pour véhicules électriques 2022-2032

Marché mondial des moteurs de véhicules électriques. Technologie des moteurs, flux axial, roue intégrée et benchmarking. Prévisions régionales granulaires. Voitures, deux-roues, bus, camionnettes et camions.


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The rapidly growing electric vehicle market puts a huge demand on electric motors across several global regions and different vehicle categories. Within this market, we are seeing trends around motor technology and topology, power and torque density, materials utilisation and thermal management. This report addresses these trends within the markets for battery-electric or hybrid cars, vans, trucks, buses and two-wheelers with OEM use-cases, benchmarking and granular market forecasts.
Electric motors truly are the driving force behind electric vehicles (EVs). In addition to the batteries and power electronics, the electric motor is a critical component within the drivetrain. Despite electric traction motors originally being developed in the 1800s, the market is still evolving today with new designs, improving power and torque density and more considerations around the materials used. These aren't just incremental improvements either with developments such as axial flux motors and various OEMs eliminating rare-earths altogether.
 
The latest report from IDTechEx on Electric Vehicle Motors 2022-2032 details OEM strategies, trends and emerging technologies within the motor market for EVs. An extensive model database of over 250 EV models sold between 2015-2020 in several geographic regions aids in a granular market analysis of motor type, performance, thermal management and market shares. Technologies and strategies of major OEMs are considered for cars, two-wheelers, light commercial vehicles (vans), trucks and buses along with several use-cases and benchmarking of several motor units. Emerging technologies are also addressed with market forecasts through to 2032 such as axial flux and in-wheel motors.
 
IDTechEx analyses key parameters of motors in BEVs and emerging alternatives. Source: Electric Vehicle Motors
Axial Flux and Other Emerging Options
A key emerging motor technology is that of axial flux. The magnetic flux is parallel to the axis of rotation in an axial flux motor (compared to perpendicular in radial flux machines). Whilst almost the entire EV market is using a form of radial flux motor, axial flux motors present several benefits. These include increased power and torque density and a pancake form factor ideal for integration in various scenarios. Despite the previous lack of adoption, the technology has evolved to the state where we have seen significant interest. Daimler acquired key players YASA to use their motors in the upcoming AMG electric platform and Renault has partnered with WHYLOT to use axial flux motors in their hybrids starting in 2025. The axial flux market in automotive EVs is very small today but IDTechEx expects a huge increase in demand over the next 10 years, with first applications in high-performance vehicles and certain hybrid applications. IDTechEx also sees some promising applications for other alternatives to typical EV motors such as in-wheel motors and switched reluctance motors.
 
IDTechEx forecast a large increase in demand for automotive axial flux motors. Source: Electric Vehicle Motors
Materials and Rare-earths
A key consideration for the EV motor market is that of magnetic materials. From 2015-2020 the share of permanent magnet (PM) motors in the electric car market remained consistently above 75%. The magnets used in these motors are typically rich in rare-earths, mainly neodymium, but also often contain a series of heavy rare-earth such as dysprosium. These PM motors present excellent power density and efficiency. However, rare-earths have concerns around mining and waste in addition to a supply chain largely confined to China. In 2011, China restricted exports of these materials resulting in a massive price spike with prices reaching approximately 5 times that of the previous year. These factors combined resulted in several OEMs designing motors without rare-earths such as Renault's wound rotor design in the Zoe and Audi's induction motor in the e-tron. Whilst Renault were the main OEM using a wound rotor design, BMW has adopted similar for their 5th generation drive. However, the price of rare-earths has settled and remained fairly consistent and we have seen others switch to PM designs such as Tesla and Audi's next-generation models. The price of neodymium has risen drastically again in the first half of 2021, once again creating uncertainty in this market. Despite these concerns, IDTechEx expects PM designs to remain the dominant form of electric motor going into the future albeit with a focus on rare-earth and especially heavy rare-earth reductions.
 
The vast majority of the car market is using permanent magnet motors. Source: Electric Vehicle Motors
Key Report Content
Analysis of the electric motor markets in BEVs, PHEVs and HEVs across cars, two-wheelers, light commercial vehicles (vans), trucks and buses including:
  • Benchmarking different motor types/topologies
  • OEM strategies
  • EV industry trends and the impact on electric motors
  • Trends in motor design
  • Emerging motor technologies and benchmarking: axial flux, in-wheel and switched reluctance
  • Materials utilization: magnets (including rare earths) and windings (round or hairpin)
  • Thermal management of electric motors
  • EV use-cases and benchmarking
  • Company profiles including interviews
 
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Electric Motors
1.2.Electric Traction Motor Types
1.3.Benchmarking Electric Traction Motors
1.4.Overview of Electric Motor Type Market Share (2020)
1.5.Total Motors Forecast by Vehicle and Drivetrain
1.6.Total Motor Power Forecast by Vehicle and Drivetrain
1.7.Total Motor Market Size Forecast by Vehicle and Drivetrain
1.8.Forecast Commentary
1.9.Automotive Electric Motor Forecast (Motor Type)
1.10.Commentary on Electric Traction Motor Tech Trends
1.11.Automotive Electric Motor Forecast (Regional)
1.12.Automotive Electric Motor Forecast (Drivetrain)
1.13.Automotive Electric Motor Value $ Forecast (Drivetrain)
1.14.Electric Two-wheelers: Power Classes
1.15.Electric Two-wheelers Motor Forecast by Power Class
1.16.Motor Number, Type and Power Trends: Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV)
1.17.LCV Electric Motor Forecast (Drivetrain)
1.18.Truck Motor Type Market Share and Power Output Requirements
1.19.Truck Electric Motor Forecast (Drivetrain & Category)
1.20.Electric Bus Motors
1.21.Bus Electric Motor Forecast (Drivetrain)
1.22.HEV Car Manufacturer Market Share
1.23.Global HEV Car Motor-Generator Demand Forecast
1.24.Axial Flux Motors
1.25.Benchmark of Commercial Axial Flux Motors
1.26.Automotive Axial Flux Motor Forecast
1.27.In-wheel Motors
1.28.In-wheel Motors Forecast
1.29.Axial Flux and In-wheel Benchmark against BEVs
1.30.Magnet Price Increase Risk
1.31.Round vs Bar Windings: OEMs
1.32.Cooling Technology: OEM Strategies
1.33.BEV Power Density Benchmarking
1.34.Average Motor Power 2021 by Vehicle Category (kWp)
1.35.Materials in Motor Magnets Forecast (tonnes)
1.36.Copper and Aluminium Winding Forecast (tonnes)
1.37.Access to 10 IDTechEx Portal Profiles
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Electric Vehicles: Basic Principle
2.2.Parallel and Series Hybrids: Explained
2.3.Electric Vehicles: Typical Specs
2.4.Industry Terms
2.5.Electric Motors: Continued Developments
2.6.The Impact of COVID-19 on the Electric Motor Industry
3.TYPES OF ELECTRIC TRACTION MOTOR AND BENCHMARKING
3.1.1.Electric Traction Motor Types
3.1.2.Benchmarking Electric Traction Motors
3.1.3.Peak vs Continuous Properties
3.1.4.Efficiency
3.1.5.Brushless DC Motors (BLDC): Working Principle
3.1.6.BLDC Motors: Advantages, Disadvantages
3.1.7.BLDC Motors: Benchmarking Scores
3.1.8.Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSM): Working Principle
3.1.9.PMSM: Advantages, Disadvantages
3.1.10.PMSM: Benchmarking Scores
3.1.11.Differences Between PMSM and BLDC
3.1.12.Wound Rotor Synchronous Motor (WRSM): Working Principle
3.1.13.Renault's Magnet Free Motor
3.1.14.WRSM Motors: Benchmarking Scores
3.1.15.WRSM: Advantages, Disadvantages
3.1.16.AC Induction Motors (ACIM): Working Principle
3.1.17.AC Induction Motor (ACIM)
3.1.18.AC Induction Motors: Benchmarking Scores
3.1.19.AC Induction Motor: Advantages, Disadvantages
3.1.20.Reluctance Motors
3.1.21.Reluctance Motor: Working Principle
3.1.22.Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM)
3.1.23.Switched Reluctance Motors: Benchmarking Scores
3.1.24.Permanent Magnet Assisted Reluctance (PMAR)
3.1.25.PMAR Motors: Benchmarking Scores
3.1.26.Regeneration
3.2.Electric Traction Motors: Summary and Benchmarking Results
3.2.1.Comparison of Traction Motor Construction and Merits
3.2.2.Motor Efficiency Comparison
3.2.3.Benchmarking Electric Traction Motors
3.2.4.Multiple Motors: Explained
4.MOTOR MARKET IN ELECTRIC CARS
4.1.BEV and PHEV Motor Type Market Share by Region
4.2.Convergence on PMSM by Major Automakers
4.3.Motor Type Market Share Forecast
4.4.Commentary on Electric Traction Motor Trends in Cars
4.5.Automotive Electric Motor Forecast (Regional)
4.6.Automotive Electric Motor Forecast (Drivetrain)
4.7.Automotive Electric Motor Value $ Forecast (Drivetrain)
4.8.Automotive Electric Motor Power Forecast (Regional)
4.9.Automotive Electric Motor Power Forecast (Drivetrain)
4.10.Automotive Electric Motor Value $ Forecast (Drivetrain)
4.11.Electric Car Research
5.ELECTRIC TWO-WHEELERS
5.1.The Importance of Electric Two-wheelers
5.2.Electric Two-wheelers: Power Classes
5.3.Electric Two-wheeler Voltage Characteristics
5.4.Electric Motorcycle Performance
5.5.Motorcycles Have Unique Requirements
5.6.Motor Technologies in Two-wheelers
5.7.Component Developers for Electric Two Wheelers
5.8.Electric Motorcycles
5.9.Magalec: Electric Motors for Racing Bikes
5.10.Harley-Davidson LiveWire
5.11.Zero Motorcycles
5.12.Electric Two-wheelers Motor Forecast by Power Class
5.13.Electric Two-wheeler Research
6.ELECTRIC LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLES (ELCV)
6.1.Introduction
6.2.LCV Definition
6.3.eLCV Market Drivers
6.4.Regional Summary
6.5.Motors Used in eLCVs
6.6.Motor Number, Type and Power Trends: LCV
6.7.LCV Electric Motor Forecast (Drivetrain)
6.8.Light Commercial Vehicle Research
7.ELECTRIC TRUCKS
7.1.Electric Trucks: Drivers and Barriers
7.2.Truck Classifications
7.3.Range of Zero Emission Medium and Heavy Trucks
7.4.Volvo
7.5.Meritor supplies Hyliion, Volta Trucks, Lion Electric and Autocar Trucks
7.6.Truck Motor Type Market Share and Power Output Requirements
7.7.Truck Electric Motor Forecast (Drivetrain & Category)
7.8.Electric Truck Research
8.ELECTRIC BUSES
8.1.Bus Types
8.2.Challenges for Electric Bus Adoption
8.3.Drivers and Timing of Bus Electrification
8.4.Dana TM4
8.5.Equipmake
8.6.ZF
8.7.Traktionssysteme Austria (TSA)
8.8.Electric Bus Motors
8.9.Bus Electric Motor Forecast (Drivetrain)
8.10.Electric Bus Research
9.HEV DRIVE TECHNOLOGY
9.1.HEV Car Manufacturer Market Share
9.2.Hybrid Synergy Drive/ Toyota Hybrid System
9.3.Hybrid Synergy Drive/ Toyota Hybrid System
9.4.Honda
9.5.Honda Sport Hybrid Systems
9.6.Honda's 2 Motor Hybrid System
9.7.Nissan Note e-POWER
9.8.Hyundai Sonata Hybrid
9.9.Toyota Prius Drive Motor: 2004-2010
9.10.Toyota Prius Drive Motor: 2004-2017
9.11.Comparison of Hybrid MGs
9.12.Global HEV Car Motor/Generator Trends
9.13.HEV Car MGs Trends and Assumptions
9.14.Global HEV Car MG Demand Forecast
9.15.High Voltage Hybrid Electric Vehicle Research
10.EMERGING MOTOR TECHNOLOGIES
10.1.1.Tesla's Carbon Wrapped Motor
10.1.2.Equipmake: The Most Power Dense Motor?
10.1.3.AVL Hummingbird
10.1.4.Renault's Potential Next Generation Motor
10.2.Axial Flux Motors
10.2.1.Radial Flux Motors
10.2.2.Axial Flux Motors
10.2.3.Radial Flux vs Axial Flux Motors
10.2.4.Yoked vs Yokeless Axial Flux
10.2.5.Axial Flux Motors: Interesting Players
10.2.6.List of Axial Flux Motor Players
10.2.7.Axial Flux Motors in Aircraft
10.2.8.Siemens
10.2.9.AVID EVO at 10 kW/kg
10.2.10.AVID Landing Large Orders
10.2.11.EMRAX
10.2.12.Magnax
10.2.13.Magelec Propulsion
10.2.14.Saietta
10.2.15.WHYLOT
10.2.16.WHYLOT and Renault
10.2.17.YASA Axial Flux Motors
10.2.18.YASA and Koenigsegg
10.2.19.YASA and Ferrari
10.2.20.YASA Supplies Makani Drone
10.2.21.Daimler Acquires YASA
10.2.22.Benchmark of Commercial Axial Flux Motors
10.2.23.Automotive Axial Flux Motor Forecast
10.3.In-wheel Motors
10.3.1.In-wheel Motors
10.3.2.Risks and Opportunities for In-wheel Motors
10.3.3.Elaphe
10.3.4.Gem Motors
10.3.5.Nidec
10.3.6.Protean Electric
10.3.7.Examples of Vehicles with In-wheel Motors
10.3.8.Axial Flux for In-wheel Motors
10.3.9.In-wheel Motors Forecast
10.4.Axial Flux and In-wheel Motors Benchmarking Against BEV Motors
10.4.1.Axial Flux and In-wheel Benchmark against BEVs
10.4.2.Axial Flux and In-wheel Benchmark against BEVs
10.4.3.Axial Flux and In-wheel Benchmark against Traditional
10.5.Emergence of Switched Reluctance Motors?
10.5.1.Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM)
10.5.2.No Permanent Magnets for SRMs
10.5.3.Advanced Electric Machines (AEM)
10.5.4.AEM and Bentley
10.5.5.RETORQ Motors
10.5.6.Turntide Technologies
11.MATERIALS FOR ELECTRIC MOTORS
11.1.1.Which Materials are Required for Electric Motors?
11.2.Magnetic Materials
11.2.1.Magnetic Material Distribution in Rotors
11.2.2.ID4 vs Leaf vs Model 3 Rotors
11.2.3.Magnet Composition for Motors
11.2.4.Mining of Rare-Earth Metals
11.2.5.China's Control of Rare-Earths
11.2.6.Magnet Price Increase Risk
11.2.7.Reducing Rare-Earth Usage in Electric Motors
11.2.8.Reducing Rare-Earth Usage in Electric Motors
11.2.9.Volvo Funding Niron for Rare-earth Free Magnets
11.2.10.OEM Approaches
11.2.11.Materials in Motor Magnets Forecast (tonnes)
11.3.Rotor and Stator Windings
11.3.1.Aluminium vs Copper in Rotors
11.3.2.Round Wire vs Hairpins for Copper in Stators
11.3.3.MG Motors (SAIC)
11.3.4.VW's MEB
11.3.5.Round vs Bar Windings: OEMs
11.3.6.Hairpin Winding Regional Market Shares
11.3.7.Aluminium vs Copper Windings
11.3.8.Example: SRMs with Aluminium Windings?
11.3.9.Copper and Aluminium Winding Forecast (tonnes)
11.3.10.Summary and Outlook
12.THERMAL MANAGEMENT OF ELECTRIC MOTORS
12.1.Electric Motors: Permanent Magnet vs Alternatives
12.2.Cooling Electric Motors
12.3.Current OEM Strategies: Air Cooling
12.4.Current OEM Strategies: Oil Cooling
12.5.Ricardo's New 48V Motor
12.6.Current OEM Strategies: Water-glycol Cooling
12.7.Electric Motor Thermal Management Overview
12.8.Cooling Technology: OEM Strategies
12.9.Motor Cooling Technology Market Share and Outlook
12.10.Motor Cooling Strategy by Power Output
12.11.Recent Advancements in Liquid Cooling
12.12.Punch Powertrain
12.13.Emerging Technologies: Immersion Cooling
12.14.Emerging Technologies: Refrigerant Cooling
12.15.Emerging Technologies: Phase Change Materials
12.16.Potting & Encapsulation
12.17.Choosing the Right Motor Insulation
12.18.Potting & Encapsulation: Players
13.EV MOTORS: OEM USE-CASES AND SUPPLY PARTNERSHIPS
13.1.Aisin Seiki, DENSO and Toyota Motor form BluE Nexus
13.2.Audi e-tron
13.3.Audi e-tron
13.4.Audi Q4 e-tron
13.5.BorgWarner Acquires Delphi
13.6.BMW i3 2016
13.7.BMW 5th Gen Drive
13.8.Chevrolet Bolt Onwards (LG)
13.9.FCA and Dana
13.10.FCA and Delta
13.11.FCA and Continental
13.12.Fiat 500 Electric (GKN)
13.13.Ford Mustang Mach-E (BorgWarner and Magna)
13.14.Ford and Schaeffler
13.15.GM Ultium Drive
13.16.Hyundai E-GMP (BorgWarner)
13.17.Jaguar I-PACE (AAM)
13.18.LG Electronics and Magna
13.19.Lordstown Motors (Elaphe)
13.20.Nidec: Foxconn Talks
13.21.Nissan Leaf
13.22.Opel/Peugeot and Vitesco
13.23.Porsche Taycan
13.24.Stellantis Shared Platform (Npe)
13.25.Tesla Induction Motor
13.26.Tesla Model S
13.27.Tesla PM Motor
13.28.Tesla Model 3
13.29.Toyota Prius 2004 to 2010
13.30.Toyota Prius
13.31.VW ID3/ID4
13.32.Yamaha
13.33.Other Motor Manufacturer Predictions/Targets
14.EV MOTORS: OEM BENCHMARKING
14.1.BEV Motor Specification Summary
14.2.BEV Power Density Benchmarking
14.3.BEV Power Density Benchmarking
14.4.BEV Power and Torque Density Benchmark
15.FORECASTS AND ASSUMPTIONS
15.1.Forecast Methodology & Assumptions
15.2.Motor Price Forecast and Assumptions
15.3.Motor per Vehicle and kWp per Vehicle Assumptions
15.4.Total Motors Forecast by Vehicle and Drivetrain
15.5.Total Motor Power Forecast by Vehicle and Drivetrain
15.6.Total Motor Market Size Forecast by Vehicle and Drivetrain
15.7.Automotive Electric Motor Forecast (Regional)
15.8.Automotive Electric Motor Forecast (Drivetrain)
15.9.Automotive Electric Motor Forecast (Motor Type)
15.10.Automotive Electric Motor Power Forecast (Regional)
15.11.Automotive Electric Motor Power Forecast (Drivetrain)
15.12.Automotive Electric Motor Value $ Forecast (Drivetrain)
15.13.Electric Two-wheelers Motor Forecast by Power Class
15.14.LCV Electric Motor Forecast (Drivetrain)
15.15.Truck Electric Motor Forecast (Drivetrain & Category)
15.16.Bus Electric Motor Forecast (Drivetrain)
15.17.Global HEV Car MG Demand Forecast
15.18.Automotive Axial Flux Motor Forecast
15.19.In-wheel Motors Forecast
15.20.Materials in Motor Magnets Forecast (tonnes)
15.21.Copper and Aluminium Winding Forecast (tonnes)
 

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Report Statistics

Slides 321
Forecasts to 2032
Published Sep 2021
ISBN 9781913899769
 

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