Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks 2025-2045: Technologies, Markets, Forecasts

This report provides an analysis of the electric truck market, including battery electric trucks, plug-in hybrid trucks, and fuel cell trucks. Furthermore, coverage on batteries (LFP and NMC) at the cell, module, and pack level, as well as charging infrastructure, electric motors, and hydrogen internal combustion engines, is provided. IDTechEx provides 20-year forecast lines on trucks split by powertrain, region, battery demand, in units, and market size US$.

 

The market for electric trucks is transitioning into the mainstream at different rates, whether that be battery-electric trucks, fuel-cell trucks, hydrogen internal combustion engines (which can be considered zero-emissions) or plug-in hybrids. Adoption varies between the key regions Europe, China, and the US, and additionally in the rest of the world, fueled by the large addressable markets in India and Brazil.

 

IDTechEx's report "Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks 2025-2045: Markets, Forecasts, Technologies", analyzes the medium and heavy-duty electric truck market, segmented by powertrain technology and region, as well as accompanying battery demand. This includes analysis of battery technologies, charging infrastructure, and the effect of other solutions, such as natural gas and hydrogen internal combustion engines. Medium and heavy-duty trucks were responsible for 1.8 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions in 2022, which is approximately 25% of the emissions of the transport sector globally. Despite their relatively low number compared to the global vehicle fleet, the overwhelming majority of trucks use heavy-duty diesel engines, with most (85% in the US) driving over 100 miles/160km a day, significantly more than a passenger vehicle.

 

As a result, governments have introduced and updated emissions standards specifically for truck manufacturers, as part of the broader target to hit net-zero emissions. For example, the EU has recently updated its target for emissions of trucks, extending the scope of vehicles covered, and increasing the emissions reduction from the 2019 baseline to 45% by 2030, when it was originally 30%. The US has specific targets for emission reductions of trucks also, which could result in up to 60% zero-emissions vehicle sales share by 2032 for certain vehicle segments. The US lags behind the EU and China in zero-emission truck sales, so it remains to be seen whether these targets will require further incentives nationally, to accompany regulations by local governments, such as the Advanced Clean Trucks regulation originally adopted by California, now including Oregon, Colorado, and New Jersey among others.

 

Chinese OEMs continue to dominate the global electric truck market, with offerings in all vehicle segments, as well as the continued success of battery-swappable models in the domestic market. Sales are dominated by the likes of SANY, Dongfeng, SCMG, Sinotruk, and many others in a competitive market, with over 34,000 heavy-duty electric truck sales in 2023. This is likely to be surpassed by the end of 2024. While all three major markets saw significant growth, only 0.1% of new truck sales in the US were electric. In Europe, Volvo Group (including Volvo Trucks and Renault Trucks) claimed approximately 70% of the heavy-duty battery electric truck market share, while MAN Truck and Bus, Mercedes, and Scania have all announced new models to enter series production in 2024.

 

Challenges remain due to the long duty cycles and high payload requirements of trucks (and commercial vehicles generally) compared to passenger vehicles: battery electric trucks average 80-90% the payload of diesel equivalents, and longer charging times and shorter ranges compared to diesel trucks continue to be a concern for fleet operators, which will be remedied by the introduction of more charging stations and MW charging standards. On the other hand, although electric trucks can cost up to double the amount of a diesel truck, they continue to gain ground from a total cost of ownership (TCO) standpoint, especially with voucher initiatives such as those provided by the California Hybrid and Zero Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project (HVIP), and emissions-based tolling, which yields a penalty for operating a diesel truck in multiple EU states.

 

Fuel cell trucks solve some of the issues that battery-electric trucks continue to struggle with. Hydrogen tanks weigh much less than the battery packs required for electric trucks, which are hundreds of kg, and refueling a fuel cell truck should take less than ten minutes. Generally, fuel cell trucks possess a range approximately 150km greater than a battery electric truck (although this varies greatly by individual model and application). Nikola made its first deliveries of its TRE fuel cell truck, with 88 being taken by customers in Q3 2024.

 

The Hyundai Xcient has also seen a limited number of deployments, mostly in South Korea and Switzerland. Other OEMs such as Toyota, Mercedes, and Volvo all have running trials or prototypes.

 

Fuel cell truck uptake will be limited by TCO considerations and sparse hydrogen infrastructure. Furthermore, currently most hydrogen is grey hydrogen, which is very emissions heavy, and more comparable to diesel trucks than battery-electric. Ideally, green hydrogen is used, but supply is still extremely limited. With the global energy grid shifting more to renewables, the argument arises that this electricity should be used for battery-electric trucks over green hydrogen production, where 75% of the energy produced reaches the wheels, compared to just 25% in fuel-cell trucks. For H₂ICE, this is only 15%. However, with over 90% universality in parts to a traditional diesel engine, and the ability to use lower-purity hydrogen, there is a short-term market opportunity for H₂ICE trucks. However, the market is still in its nascent stages, led by MAN Truck & Bus, which is looking to produce 200 H₂ICE trucks in 2025. IDTechEx considers the potential of all these technologies, along with plug-in hybrid trucks, to forecast yearly unit sales and market size of battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell trucks.

 

 

 

IDTechEx's report, "Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks 2025-2045: Markets, Forecasts, Technologies", provides additional coverage on emissions, batteries, motors, and charging, providing a holistic insight into the electric truck landscape for any business across the truck sector. This is combined with 80 forecast lines, giving a twenty-year outlook for truck sales, battery demand, fuel cell demand, and market value, with separate forecasts for both the medium and heavy-duty truck markets.

 

This report provides technical and commercial analysis on medium and heavy-duty electric trucks, including:

 

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