Nearly 50% of mining vehicle sales will be EVs in 2044, valued at over US$23 billion.

Electric Vehicles in Mining 2024-2044: Technologies, Players, and Forecasts

Electric mining vehicle markets: haul trucks, dump trucks, underground loaders, mining light vehicles, and more. Technical & cost analysis, key players, lithium ion batteries; 20-year forecasts for unit sales, battery demand, and revenue.


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IDTechEx's report 'Electric Vehicles in Mining 2024-2044: Technologies, Players, and Forecasts' provides a deep and detailed analysis of the fast-growing electric mining vehicle industry. Over 70 vehicles have been analyzed to reveal trends in battery sizing, charging, pricing, and other enabling technologies. These trends and more are explored in detail in this report.
 
The electric mining vehicle market is in its early stages, but more and more major OEMs are increasingly electrifying their products, and mining companies have shown they are willing to adopt EVs. The growth of the industry will also be driven by complementary sectors being at further development stages (e.g., batteries, power electronics, charging), as well as policy drivers, health and safety benefits, and potential savings in total costs of ownership (TCO). This report considers these factors to predict the electric mining vehicle market to grow to over US$23 billion by 2044, representing a 32% CAGR.
 
 
Adoption will largely be driven by TCO and not by regulation
 
The mining industry is responsible for 2-3% of all global CO2 emissions, with 40-50% of this coming from diesel combustion engines of mining vehicles. As mining is a relatively small greenhouse gas contributor - especially compared to on-road vehicles - it is no surprise that it has not seen many policies targeting decarbonization. The limited regulation that has been introduced in regions such as China and Canada does not provide the long-term governmental commitments that would be necessary to encourage an electric transition on its own.
 
Instead, a more potent incentive for adoption will come from total cost of ownership (TCO) savings. Mining machines have a wide range of possible duty cycles, but the most intense of those can require operating 20-hour days on average or even around the clock. These vehicles consume a lot of diesel in the process, which is both more expensive than electricity and subject to considerable price volatility. IDTechEx analysis highlights that a single 150-tonne haul truck will require over US$850,000 per year in fuel, and electrification could save over US$5.5 million in energy costs alone over the vehicle's lifetime. This, combined with the savings achieved through reduced maintenance, will comfortably exceed the additional costs of batteries and other electrical components. Since volumes of electric mining equipment are currently very small, there is lots of room for the premium associated with early electrification to fall. As it does the advantages of electric mining machines over diesel ones will only become more pronounced.
 
Electric haul trucks are coming
Haul trucks are amongst the most critical assets on any mine - as one of the most abundant mining vehicles globally as well as by far the largest, most expensive, and most emitting of all mining vehicles. The current global haul truck population emits 174 megatonnes of CO2 annually. The electrification of haul trucks will be key to achieving meaningful emissions reductions in the industry and assisting mining companies to meet their sustainability objectives.
 
Up to now, much of the effort in haul truck electrification has come from the mining companies themselves as well as independent retrofitters - working together to modify existing diesel machines with battery or fuel cell technology. However, OEMs are increasingly making their way into this space, taking an active part in the production of electric haul trucks by developing EV models of their existing vehicles in-house.
 
The large batteries needed for electric haul trucks are now sufficiently advanced and competitively priced to encourage OEM involvement and EV adoption. These batteries regularly exceed 1 MWh, with the largest ones approaching 2 MWh. The wide range of designs and chemistries battery suppliers are employing to meet the size and performance demands of electric haul trucks are covered in this report.
 
The two largest mining OEMs in the world, Caterpillar and Komatsu, both have electric haul trucks in the testing phase with aims for commercialization before 2030 - the technical details of which are available in this report. Recent partnerships and agreements have shown that, when the technology does eventually reach sufficient maturity for commercialization, there will be ample demand from mining companies to warrant mass production on the part of OEMs.
 
Underground mining EVs are here to stay
The electrification of underground mining vehicles (i.e. electric underground loaders and electric underground trucks) offers a couple of additional benefits on top of those provided by surface vehicles. First and foremost are the reduced ventilation requirements of electric underground vehicles, which can provide massive OPEX savings for mines. Heat, noise, vibrations, and emissions put out by diesel combustion engines are a bigger concern underground than on the surface, and electrification of underground machines can deliver significant improvements to miners' health and safety.
 
It is for these reasons that underground mining vehicles have been the predominant area of focus for mining electrification. The batteries of these vehicles top out at under 500 kWh, making them easier to electrify and commercialize than haul trucks. Electric underground trucks and electric underground loaders have been on the market for over half a decade now and have seen slow but steady adoption within that time. OEMs are now working on expanding their electric vehicle offerings to meet the market demand. This includes the electrification of heavier underground vehicles, with the largest existing models now weighing upwards of 55 tonnes unloaded - approaching the weight of even the heaviest diesel models. IDTechEx analysis shows that orders for electric underground vehicles have steadily increased, and they are expected to continue similarly moving forward.
 
This report brings together all these trends and more, highlighting the sea change that is coming to the global mining industry. The 20-year granular forecasts broken down by region and vehicle type provide critical insight into the key technologies fueling this transformation within the industry.
 
Key aspects
This report provides critical market intelligence about the electric mining vehicle industry in each of the six main vehicle types considered. This includes:
 
Context and technology fueling electrification of mining vehicles
  • Advantages and barriers to mining EVs
  • Major OEMs and key electrification activities
  • Overview of significant trends within the electric mining vehicle space
 
Detailed analysis of major vehicle types
  • Through performance benchmarking (including endurance, energy use, charging, productivity, and more) of existing electric mining vehicle models for each vehicle type
  • Assessment of technical, market, and supply chain factors and their impact on commercialization
  • Review of total costs of ownership for each vehicle type, accounting for fuel savings, battery costs, and maintenance, with considerations made for regional pricing differences
  • Battery sizing for each mining vehicle type, along with key battery technologies, battery chemistry, benchmarking, and battery pack suppliers for mining vehicles
  • A review of enabling technologies for electric mining vehicles, including electric motors, charging & infrastructure, hydrogen, autonomy, and more
 
Market analysis
  • Reviews and analysis of over 70 electric mining vehicles over a wide range of OEMs
  • Market forecasts from 2024-2044 covering unit sales, battery demand (GWh), and revenue (US$ Billion)
Report MetricsDetails
Historic Data2021 - 2023
CAGRThe electric mining vehicle market will grow to US$23 billion by 2044, at a CAGR of 32%.
Forecast Period2024 - 2044
Forecast UnitsUnit sales, Revenue (US$), Battery demand (GWh)
Regions CoveredChina, United States, Europe, Worldwide
Segments CoveredHaul Trucks, Dump Trucks, Wheel Loaders, Underground Loaders, Underground Trucks, Mining Light Vehicles, Other Mining Vehicles
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Key Report Findings
1.2.Mining Vehicles
1.3.Key Mining Vehicle Types for Electrification
1.4.Key Mining OEMs
1.5.Mining OEMs Electrifying
1.6.Advantages to Electrification
1.7.Barriers to Electrification
1.8.EV Haul Truck Runtime Estimates
1.9.EV Haul Truck TCO
1.10.Battery Replacements for EV Haul Trucks
1.11.Energy Price Impact on TCO
1.12.Power-Agnostic Haul Trucks
1.13.Charging and Ventilation Costs
1.14.EV Underground Loader TCO
1.15.EV Underground Loader: Impact of Vehicle Lifetimes
1.16.Battery Sizing by Vehicle Type
1.17.Battery Chemistry by Vehicle Type
1.18.Battery Chemistry by Region
1.19.Options for Meeting Duty Cycle Demands
1.20.OEMs Charging vs. Battery Swapping
1.21.EV Mining Vehicle Sales Forecast by Region
1.22.EV Mining Vehicle Sales Forecast by Vehicle Type
1.23.EV Mining Vehicle Battery Demand Forecast by Vehicle Type (GWh)
1.24.EV Mining Vehicle Market Size Forecast by Vehicle Type (US$ Billions)
1.25.Company Profiles
2.INTRODUCTION TO THE MINING INDUSTRY
2.1.Overview
2.1.1.Types of Mining Vehicles
2.1.2.Surface Mining Vehicles
2.1.3.Underground Vehicles and Mining Light Vehicles
2.1.4.Top 15 Mining Industry Players
2.1.5.Major Mining OEMs by Region
2.2.Drivers for Mining Vehicle Electrification
2.2.1.CO₂ Emission Contribution of Mining Vehicles
2.2.2.Emissions Targets of Mining Industry Companies
2.2.3.Canada Incentivizing Decarbonization of Mining Vehicles
2.2.4.China National Double-Carbon Strategy
2.2.5.Mine Site Air Quality
2.2.6.Ventilation of Underground Mines
2.2.7.Miner Safety Considerations
2.2.8.Fuel Price Volatility
2.2.9.Maintenance Savings
2.2.10.Productivity Benefits of Electric Vehicles
2.2.11.Expectations of Mining EVs
2.2.12.Where Might Mining EVs be Adopted?
3.ELECTRIC HAUL TRUCKS
3.1.Overview
3.1.1.Haul Trucks Overview
3.1.2.Status of Haul Truck Electrification
3.1.3.Summary of Electric Haul Truck Models
3.1.4.Operational Runtime Estimates
3.1.5.Effects of Battery Life and Charging on Haul Truck Productivity
3.1.6.Diesel Electric Driveline Haul Trucks
3.1.7.Diesel-Electric Drive
3.1.8.Energy Costs for Diesel vs Electric Haul Trucks
3.1.9.Electric Haul Truck Retrofit TCO
3.1.10.ICE and Battery Lifetime
3.1.11.Effect of Battery and Engine Replacements on Haul Truck TCO
3.1.12.Replacement Rates Effect on Breakeven Times
3.1.13.Energy Price Sensitivity
3.2.Models & Case Studies
3.2.1.XEMC SF31904
3.2.2.BelAZ 7558E Prototype
3.2.3.Caterpillar & Komatsu: Industry Leaders Electrifying Haul Trucks
3.2.4.WAE 1.4MWh Haul Truck Battery Pack
3.2.5.Battery-Fuel Cell Haul Trucks Development
3.2.6.BEV-FCEV Haul Trucks
3.2.7.Development of Power-Agnostic Haul Trucks
4.ELECTRIC DUMP TRUCKS
4.1.Overview
4.1.1.Dump Trucks Overview
4.1.2.OEMs Involved in Dump Truck Electrification
4.1.3.Summary of Electric Dump Truck Models
4.1.4.Estimating Battery Capacity Requirements
4.1.5.Operational Runtime Estimates
4.1.6.Electric Dump Truck TCO
4.1.7.TCO vs. Battery Replacement Rate
4.1.8.Dump Truck Breakeven Time
4.1.9.TCO Sensitivity to Battery Pricing
4.2.Models & Case Studies
4.2.1.Kuhn Schweiz - Lithium System eDumper (Komatsu)
4.2.2.XCMG XDR80TE
4.2.3.Tonly TLE Series
4.2.4.Zoomlion Battery and Fuel Cell Dump Trucks
5.ELECTRIC WHEEL LOADERS
5.1.Overview
5.1.1.Wheel Loaders Overview
5.1.2.Status of Wheel Loader Electrification
5.1.3.Summary of Electric Wheel Loader Models
5.1.4.Wheel Loader Battery Requirements
5.1.5.Electric Wheel Loader Runtimes
5.1.6.Wheel Loader Battery Endurance
5.1.7.Electric Wheel Loader TCO
5.1.8.Energy Prices for Wheel Loader TCO
5.1.9.Electric Wheel Loader Breakeven
5.2.Models & Case Studies
5.2.1.Caterpillar 950 GC Electric Prototype
5.2.2.Volvo L120H Electric
5.2.3.SANY SW956E
5.2.4.LiuGong 856H-E Max
5.2.5.Batt Mobile Equipment: BIT210 and BME220
6.ELECTRIC UNDERGROUND LOADERS
6.1.Overview
6.1.1.Underground Loaders Overview
6.1.2.Status of Underground Loader Electrification
6.1.3.Summary of Electric Underground Loader Models
6.1.4.Summary of Electric Underground Loader Models (2)
6.1.5.Underground Loader Performance Benchmarking
6.1.6.Underground Vehicle Lifetime and Maintenance
6.1.7.Charging vs. Ventilation
6.1.8.Electric Underground Loader TCO
6.1.9.TCO Over Variable Vehicle Lifetimes
6.1.10.Fuel Price Effect on Underground Loader TCO
6.1.11.Underground Loader Breakeven Time
6.1.12.How Much Will OEMs Charge for Battery-Swapping?
6.1.13.TCO with Battery-Swapping
6.2.Models & Case Studies
6.2.1.Sandvik: Toro and Artisan Models
6.2.2.Epiroc Scooptram Series
6.2.3.Caterpillar R1700XE
6.2.4.RDH Scharf Electric Series
6.2.5.Cable-Electric Loaders
6.2.6.Komatsu WX18H & WX22H
6.2.7.Sandvik & Epiroc Electric Drive Underground Loaders
7.ELECTRIC UNDERGROUND TRUCKS
7.1.Overview
7.1.1.Underground Trucks Overview
7.1.2.Status of Underground Truck Electrification
7.1.3.Summary of Electric Underground Truck Models
7.1.4.Performance Benchmarking
7.1.5.Electric Underground Truck TCO
7.1.6.Effect of Lifetime Years and Diesel Price on TCO
7.1.7.Diesel Pricing Effects on Underground Truck TCO
7.2.Models & Case Studies
7.2.1.Artisan - Sandvik Z Series
7.2.2.Sandvik TH550B and TH665B
7.2.3.Epiroc Minetruck MT42 SG
7.2.4.RDH Scharf BEV Trucks
7.2.5.Komatsu Joy Battery Haulers
8.ELECTRIC MINING LIGHT VEHICLES
8.1.Overview
8.1.1.Mining Light Vehicles Overview
8.1.2.Status of Mining Light Vehicle Electrification
8.1.3.Summary of Electric Mining Light Vehicle Models (1)
8.1.4.Summary of Electric Mining Light Vehicle Models (2)
8.1.5.Light Vehicle Benchmarking
8.1.6.Electric Mining Light Vehicle Retrofit TCO
8.1.7.Electric Mining Light Vehicle OEM TCO
8.1.8.Market Demand for EV Mining Light Vehicles
8.1.9.Mining Light Vehicle Operational Demands and Economics
8.1.10.Incentives for Mining Light Vehicles
8.1.11.Energy Price Effects
8.1.12.Breakeven Times of Mining Light Vehicles
8.2.Models & Case Studies
8.2.1.Rokion EV Personnel Carriers
8.2.2.MEVCO Hilux Retrofitting
8.2.3.Paus - Danfoss MinCa 5.1
8.2.4.Kovatera KT200e
9.OTHER ELECTRIC MINING VEHICLES
9.1.Excavators in Mining
9.2.Electrification of Excavators
9.3.Electric Excavator Examples: Volvo and Caterpillar
9.4.Cable-Electric Hydraulic Excavators
9.5.Electric Drilling Jumbos and Bolting Rigs
9.6.BEV Electric Rigs Examples
9.7.Surface Drills
9.8.Shantui SD17E-X Electric Bulldozer
9.9.Other Underground Mining Vehicles
9.10.MacLean Engineering
9.11.Normet
9.12.Rokion R700 and R710
10.LI-ION BATTERY TECHNOLOGY AND SUPPLIERS FOR MINING VEHICLES
10.1.Overview
10.1.1.Battery Chemistry of Mining Vehicles
10.1.2.Battery Chemistry by Vehicle
10.1.3.Regional Battery Chemistries
10.1.4.Key Performance Indicators For Mining Battery Systems
10.1.5.Battery Reliability
10.1.6.Battery Chemistry Benchmarking
10.1.7.LFP vs. NMC Comparison
10.1.8.LTO Battery Cell Technology
10.1.9.LTO Batteries for Haul Trucks
10.1.10.Introduction To Sodium-ion Batteries
10.1.11.Na-ion vs. Other Chemistries
10.1.12.Na-ion Batteries in Mining
10.1.13.Battery Transport
10.1.14.Battery Manufacturing Global Distribution
10.1.15.Distribution of Expected Battery Demand for Mining
10.2.Battery Pack Suppliers
10.2.1.ABB
10.2.2.Northvolt
10.2.3.3ME Technology
10.2.4.WAE
10.2.5.Enertech and Kreisel Electric
10.2.6.Chinese Battery Manufacturers: CATL and CALB
10.2.7.OEMs Acquiring Battery Pack Manufacturers
11.MOTORS FOR ELECTRIC MINING VEHICLES
11.1.Summary of Traction Motor Types
11.2.Motor Types Comparison
11.3.Danfoss Editron
11.4.ABB
11.5.Dana e-Axles
11.6.Fast Gear 4E300
11.7.Yiwei Dump Truck Motors
11.8.Caterpillar
11.9.RDH Scharf Vehicle Motors
11.10.Electrically Powered Hydraulic Systems
12.CHARGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR MINING VEHICLES
12.1.Options for Meeting Duty Cycle Demands
12.2.Challenges for Charging in Mines
12.3.Microgrids
12.4.Hydrogen for Charging
12.5.Tritium
12.6.L-Charge
12.7.ABB FastCharge
12.8.Could slower charging be better for mines?
12.9.Battery-Swapping
12.10.Swapping Stations
12.11.Benefits and Drawbacks of Battery-Swapping
12.12.Battery-as-a-Service
12.13.BaaS Pricing
12.14.Trolley-Assisted Haul Trucks
12.15.Challenges for Trolley Systems
12.16.eMine Trolley Pilot Tests
12.17.OEM Trolley Systems
12.18.Dynamic Catenary Charging
12.19.BluVein
13.HYDROGEN POWERED MINING VEHICLES
13.1.Overview
13.1.1.Attraction of Fuel Cell Vehicles
13.1.2.Deployment Barriers of Fuel Cell Vehicles
13.1.3.Colors of Hydrogen
13.1.4.Fuel Cells for Green Machines Need Green Hydrogen
13.1.5.BEV vs. FCEV efficiency
13.1.6.Green Hydrogen Cost Reduction
13.1.7.Hydrogen Fuel vs. Diesel Costs
13.1.8.Hydrogen Combustion Engines (HICE)
13.1.9.BEV, FCEV, and HICE Comparison
13.2.Models & Case Studies
13.2.1.Komatsu - GM Fuel Cell 930E
13.2.2.Cat C13D Hydrogen-Hybrid Engine
13.2.3.Fortescue Hydrogen Powered Excavator
13.2.4.Mining Companies Turning Away from FCEVs
14.AUTONOMOUS MINING VEHICLES
14.1.Why Automate Mining Vehicles?
14.2.Automation Benefits for Mining Companies
14.3.Suitability of Mining to Automation
14.4.Challenges for Mining AVs
14.5.Primary Sensor Types
14.6.Adverse Weather Operation
14.7.Companies Driving Automation
14.8.OEM Activity Examples
14.9.Big 3 Chinese AHS Companies
14.10.Drivers for Automation in China
14.11.Big 3 Activity
14.12.Further Applications of Sensors in Mining
14.13.PreAct Technologies
14.14.Other LiDAR Providers in Mining
15.FORECASTS
15.1.Forecast Methodology (1)
15.2.Forecast Methodology (2)
15.3.Forecast Methodology (3)
15.4.Forecast Assumptions
15.5.EV Mining Vehicle Sales Forecast by Region
15.6.Global EV Mining Vehicle Sales Forecast by Vehicle Type
15.7.China EV Mining Vehicle Sales Forecast by Vehicle Type
15.8.US EV Mining Vehicle Sales Forecast by Vehicle Type
15.9.Europe EV Mining Vehicle Sales Forecast by Vehicle Type
15.10.RoW EV Mining Vehicle Sales Forecast by Vehicle Type
15.11.EV Mining Vehicle Battery Demand Forecast by Region (GWh)
15.12.EV Mining Vehicle Battery Demand Forecast by Vehicle Type (GWh)
15.13.EV Mining Vehicle Market Size Forecast by Region (US$ Billions)
15.14.EV Mining Vehicle Market Size Forecast by Vehicle Type (US$ Billions)
 

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Report Statistics

Slides 283
Forecasts to 2044
Published Mar 2024
ISBN 9781835700228
 

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