By 2045, over 540,000 H2ICE trucks will be on the road.

Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engines 2025-2045: Applications, Technologies, Market Status and Forecasts

In-depth coverage of hydrogen engines, including fuel-injection, air-fuel-ratios, ignition strategies, NOx and tailpipe emissions. Applicability across trucking, cars, off-road, aviation. Player coverage, and H2ICE vehicle forecasts.


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For over a century, internal combustion engines have reigned supreme in the automotive sector. Cars, buses, trucks, excavators, ships, and airplanes have all relied on complex machinery to harness the explosive force of combustion, translating it into motion through a sophisticated interplay of components including pistons, carburetors, camshafts, flywheels, differentials, and wheels. While internal combustion engines (ICEs) have long been the cornerstone of the automotive industry, mounting concerns about their carbon emissions have fueled a push for alternative "emissions-free" solutions.
 
Battery electric is a promising alternative, but brings its own drawbacks.
The battery electric vehicle (BEV) presents a radical shake-up of the industry with its simple yet powerful setup that harnesses electricity from a battery to propel a motor, resulting in superior drivetrain efficiencies and zero tailpipe emissions. The phenomenal growth of BEV sales, especially in the passenger car market, has been aided by governments across the world calling time on ICEs and setting deadlines for the end of their production. However, the BEV is still hampered by issues of limited range, underdeveloped infrastructure, and expensive batteries. These are improving but still present a barrier to adoption, particularly in the most demanding automotive sectors (such as construction and long-haul trucking).
 
Can the industry keep the ICE, but make it carbon-neutral?
Amid growing concerns, the quest for alternative solutions persists, with some industry players optimistic about the potential to sustain the combustion engine. Hydrogen internal combustion engines (H2ICE) operate on gaseous, carbon-free hydrogen instead of traditional fuels, offering nearly zero tailpipe emissions while leveraging existing engine architecture with some essential modifications. Despite its historical roots in the 1800s, interest in hydrogen engines had previously been on the fringe, with sporadic experimental prototypes. The renewed curiosity in this technology begs the question of whether the transport decarbonization efforts will lead to a breakthrough for H2ICE.
 
Big questions ahead for H2ICE.
The IDTechEx report offers a thorough technical examination of hydrogen engine combustion processes, exploring how hydrogen's chemical properties influence injection strategies and engine operation modes, with a focus on the challenge of minimizing nitrogen oxide (NOx) production to maintain zero-emissions integrity. The report provides a comprehensive assessment of the mechanisms and causes of NOx formation in H2ICE, along with treatment options for the exhaust gas. The air-fuel ratio significantly influences thermal NOx production, driving the rise of lean burn trends in H2ICEs. Current exhaust gas after treatment systems (EATS) for modern diesel vehicles are becoming increasingly intricate and advanced to meet stringent NOx emissions standards. IDTechEx has evaluated various EATS options for H2ICE vehicles, including three-way catalytic converters, lean NOx traps, and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) with urea dosing. Real-world case studies offer insight into how effectively these technologies can limit NOx in H2ICE.
 
Hydrogen chemical properties present a challenge to vehicle integration.
While the engine itself may bear a resemblance to a traditional diesel or petrol ICE with some modifications, big differences arise when it comes to storing hydrogen for H2ICE vehicles. Hydrogen is the lightest element in the periodic table, and as such an enormous amount of energy can be contained per kg of weight. However, it is the volumetric energy density that poses a major challenge. At ambient pressure and temperature, diesel contains over 3000 times the energy as an equivalent volume of gaseous hydrogen.
 
 
An H2ICE is also less efficient than an FCEV, so requires more hydrogen per km traveled than a fuel cell vehicle. To achieve a meaningful range for H2ICE vehicles, hydrogen needs to be stored in a more energetically dense format, typically through compression in 350-bar or 700-bar tanks. Additionally, the use of liquid-cooled or cryo-cooled hydrogen is being explored, as it contains more energy per unit volume, although it brings its own significant challenges, such as hydrogen boil-off. Even with liquid hydrogen, the volumetric energy requirements for the fuel alone are greater in liters/km traveled than for H2ICE than a BEV when not considering the tank and cooling equipment required, according to IDTechEx analysis.
 
What are the prospects for H2ICE?
In view of these challenges, IDTechEx thoroughly evaluates the potential and likelihood of success for H2ICE across various sectors, encompassing passenger cars, aviation, non-road mobile machinery, and goods transportation, each of which poses unique obstacles for decarbonization. The report seeks to provide an insightful analysis of hydrogen ICE, addressing emissions, technical and economic hurdles (including green hydrogen production and distribution costs), and comparisons with established drivetrains such as BEV and FCEV. Additionally, it includes market forecasts for sectors poised for H2ICE vehicle growth and offers commentary on the limited future of hydrogen in other sectors.
 
Key Aspects
This report provides a critical and realistic assessment of the performance and applicability of hydrogen internal combustion engines. This includes:
 
Introduction and Outlook by Sector
  • History and context of H2ICE as an alternative means to decarbonize transportation.
  • Current and past projects as well as recent technical developments.
  • Applicability by key sectors including trucking, construction, agriculture, mining, cars, and aviation.
  • Attitudes towards H2ICE of major OEMs and suppliers.
 
Technical Aspects of H2ICE
  • Key physical differences between hydrogen and a hydrocarbon fuel, and how these manifest into different combustion characteristics.
  • Air-fuel-ratios and injection strategies for hydrogen engines.
 
Tailpipe Emissions
  • Production mechanisms for thermal NOx in H2ICE.
  • Effect of engine parameters on NOx formation.
  • Aftertreatment systems to mitigate NOx in the exhaust, including exhaust gas recirculation, selective catalytic reductions and lean NOx traps.
  • Assessment of NOx performance for real-world H2ICE vehicles in the context of current and upcoming regulations.
 
Hydrogen as Fuel
  • Production methods for hydrogen including green H2 electrolysers.
  • Production, distribution and dispensing costs including comparison to conventional fuels.
  • Distribution technologies and current status of hydrogen refueling stations (HRS's) worldwide.
  • Options for onboard vehicle storage, including 350 bar, 700 bar, liquid cooled and cryocooled.
  • Performance of storage methods, including range achievable with a given volume of storage space.
  • Assessment of real-world vehicles hydrogen fuel consumption, including comparison with fuel-cell electric vehicles.
  • Well-to-wheel energy intensity of H2ICE compared with FCEV and BEVs.
 
Market Forecasts
  • IDTechEx assessment of H2ICEs prospects across key sectors, including forecasts in vehicle units and market value.
Report MetricsDetails
Historic Data2007 - 2023
CAGRThere will be 63,000 hydrogen internal combustion powered trucks sold annually by 2045. This represents a CAGR of 38%.
Forecast Period2025 - 2045
Forecast UnitsUnits, US$
Regions CoveredWorldwide, Europe, North America (USA + Canada), China
Segments CoveredHydrogen internal combustion powered vehicles.
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Report Overview
1.2.Executive Summary (1) - Key Market Takeaways
1.3.Executive Summary (2) - Key Technical Findings
1.4.Hydrogen Combustion Engines - Older Than the Diesel Engine
1.5.H2ICE for Hard to Abate Sectors
1.6.H2ICE, Why Now?
1.7.H2ICE Offers Continuity With Current Drivetrains
1.8.The Messy Middle - a Period of Great Change
1.9.Overview of Powertrain Options
1.10.Chemical Reaction - Gasoline, Hydrogen & Fuel Cells
1.11.Key Technical Differences Between Petrol and Hydrogen ICEs
1.12.Hydrogen Combustion is Not Zero Emissions
1.13.NOx Formation Mechanisms - a Summary
1.14.Strategies to Reduce NOx in Hydrogen Engines
1.15.Real World H2ICE NOx Performance
1.16.Energy Density of Hydrogen
1.17.Options for Onboard Hydrogen Storage
1.18.FCEV and H2ICE Range Comparisons
1.19.Fuel Volume and Mass Requirements
1.20.Volumetric Density of Fuels - Comparison
1.21.Costs at the Pump - Hydrogen Has a Premium
1.22.System Efficiency - BEV, FCEV & H2ICE
1.23.Industry Landscape - H2ICE
1.24.Suppliers Hedge Their Bets
1.25.Is H2ICE a Fast-to-Market Solution?
1.26.H2ICE Contradiction
1.27.Hydrogen Combustion Engine, ZEV (Zero-emission Vehicle) or Not?
1.28.H2-ICE, BEV and FCEV Summary Table
1.29.H2ICE Drivers & Barriers to Adoption
1.30.Forecast Summary - Sector Split
1.31.H2ICE Forecasts - Market Shares
1.32.HD Truck Market by Drivetrains, 2025-2045
1.33.H2ICE Forecasts - Market Value
2.INTRODUCTION TO HYDROGEN COMBUSTION
2.1.Hydrogen Combustion Engines - Older Than the Diesel Engine
2.2.H2ICE, Why Now?
2.3.H2ICE for Hard to Abate Sectors
2.4.H2ICE, Why Now?
2.5.H2ICE Offers Continuity With Current Drivetrains
2.6.Overview of Powertrain Options
2.7.The Messy Middle - a Period of Great Change
2.8.Hydrogen Combustion Engine, ZEV (Zero-emission Vehicle) or Not?
2.9.Industry Landscape - H2ICE
2.10.Selection of OEMs and Tier-1s with H2ICE Projects
2.11.Is H2-ICE a Fast-to-Market Solution?
2.12.H2ICE Contradiction
2.13.H2-ICE, BEV and FCEV Summary Table
2.14.Hydrogen Combustion System Layouts
2.15.H2ICE CAPEX Advantage - Industry Figures
2.16.Is there a TCO case for H2ICE? - (1)
2.17.Is there a TCO case for H2ICE - (2)
2.18.Li-ion Cost Improvements
3.H2ICE OUTLOOK BY SECTOR
3.1.H2ICE Sector Commentary
3.1.1.Commercial Segment Emerges as the Key Opportunity for H2ICE
3.1.2.H2ICE Prototypes - Genuine Interest or Ploy for Funding
3.2.Trucking
3.2.1.Commercial Segments with H2ICE Draw - Trucking
3.2.2.Long Haul Trucking - H2ICE Solves Many Pain Points
3.2.3.MAN - Limited H2ICE Production Run
3.2.4.Mercedez Truck - H2 Powered Unimog
3.2.5.KEYOU
3.2.6.DAF BEV, H2-ICE, and FCEV
3.2.7.Southwest Research Institute Consortium
3.2.8.SwRI - a Converted H2 Class-8 Truck
3.2.9.Tata Motors H2-ICE Truck
3.2.10.Cummins Inc. - Fuel Agnostic Engine Lineup
3.2.11.Cummins H2-ICE Approach
3.2.12.Industry Converges on Standards for H2ICE Trucks
3.3.Non-Road Mobile Machinery
3.3.1.Commercial Segments with H2ICE Draw - NRMM
3.3.2.Options for NRMM
3.3.3.Diverse Strategy from Many OEMs
3.3.4.JCB - "Powertrain Selection for Net Zero Construction Equipment"
3.3.5.CAM Drivetrain Suitability
3.4.Cars
3.4.1.Passenger Cars
3.4.2.Toyota - BEV Reluctance Continues in H2-ICE
3.4.3.FAW - Hydrogen Engine Tests
3.4.4.Supercars & Hypercars - Low Volume High Performance Segment
3.4.5.Supercar Manufacturers Dodge ICE Ban in Europe
3.4.6.Impact of Regulations on Supercar Manufacturers
3.4.7.Supercars at the Forefront of Innovation
3.4.8.Performance Oriented H2ICE
3.5.Aviation
3.5.1.Aviation
3.5.2.Power Requirements for Green Hydrogen in Aviation
4.TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF HYDROGEN INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES
4.1.Introduction to Combustion Engines
4.2.Combustion Chamber For a Four-Stroke Spark Ignition Engine
4.3.Chemical Properties of H2
4.4.Key Technical Differences Between Petrol and Hydrogen ICEs
4.5.Chemical Reaction - Gasoline, Hydrogen & Fuel Cells
4.6.Air to Fuel Ratio - an Overview
4.7.Air to Fuel Ratio for Hydrogen vs Petrol
4.8.Rich, Stochiometric or Lean for Hydrogen Engines
4.9.Ignition Energy
4.10.Auto-ignition Temperature
4.11.Flame Speed
4.12.Diffusivity
4.13.Quenching Distance
4.14.Injection Strategies
5.TAILPIPE EMISSIONS OF A HYDROGEN COMBUSTION ENGINE
5.1.Tailpipe Emissions - Overview
5.2.H2ICE- Motor Oil Emissions Assessment
5.3.Hydrogen Combustion is Not Zero Emissions
5.4.NOx - the Big Question for Hydrogen Emissions
5.5.Hydrogen Combustion and NOx Formation
5.6.NOx Formation Mechanisms - a Summary
5.7.Engine Speed and NOx
5.8.NOx Emissions in H2ICE - Academic Studies
5.9.NOx in Diesel/Hydrogen Dual Fuel
5.10.Studies Produce Conflicting Results for Dual-Fuel
5.11.NOx in Gasoline Dual Fuel - Effect of Lambda
5.12.Approaches to Limiting NOx in Current Vehicles
5.13.Overview of Catalytic Converters
5.14.Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR)
5.15.Lean NOx Trap
5.16.Selective Catalytic Reduction
5.17.Strategies to Reduce NOx in Hydrogen Engines
5.18.Three-Way Catalysts for Hydrogen Engines
5.19.LNT for Hydrogen Engines
5.20.SCR for Hydrogen Engines
5.21.Toyota Explores Direct Water Cooling
5.22.EGR for Hydrogen Engines
5.23.NOx Emissions for Passenger Vehicles
5.24.NOx Emissions for Heavy Duty Vehicles
5.25.Real World H2ICE NOx Performance
5.26.NOx Emissions - Aviation
5.27.Contrail Emissions - Aviation
6.HYDROGEN AS A FUEL
6.1.Hydrogen Overview
6.1.1.IDTechEx's Hydrogen Research Portfolio
6.1.2.Hydrogen as Fuel - Overview
6.1.3.Energy Density of Hydrogen
6.1.4.Hydrogen as Fuel - Overview
6.1.5.Hydrogen as a Fuel
6.1.6.The Hydrogen Economy
6.2.Production and Costs of Hydrogen
6.2.1.Hydrogen: Emissions & Cost Issues
6.2.2.The Colours of Hydrogen
6.2.3.The colors of hydrogen
6.2.4.State of the hydrogen industry - Green Hydrogen is a Small Fraction
6.2.5.Traditional hydrogen production
6.2.6.Removing CO₂ emissions from hydrogen production
6.2.7.Main electrolyzer technologies
6.2.8.Future trend of the electrolyzer market
6.2.9.Important competing factors for the green H2 market
6.2.10.Green Hydrogen Production Costs
6.2.11.H2 Fuel Price More than Production Cost
6.2.12.On-site H2 Production in Europe
6.2.13.Passenger Car CO₂ Emissions - H2ICE, FCEV, BEV & Fossil Fuels
6.2.14.Cost of Hydrogen at the Pump (1/2)
6.2.15.Cost of Hydrogen at the Pump (2/2)
6.2.16.Costs at the Pump - Hydrogen Has a Premium
6.2.17.Required Hydrogen Price for Gasoline Parity
6.3.Distribution & Refueling Infrastructure
6.3.1.Distribution & Refueling Overview
6.3.2.H2-ICE & FCEV - an Opportunity for Parallel Infrastructure Rollout?
6.3.3.Overview of distribution methods
6.3.4.Hydrogen distribution methods by stage of development
6.3.5.Transporting Hydrogen Requires More Trailers
6.3.6.Hydrogen refueling stations (HRS)
6.3.7.HRS Sizing Depends on Usage
6.3.8.Toyotas HRS Approach
6.3.9.Alternative hydrogen refueling concepts
6.3.10.Available Hydrogen Infrastructure by Region
6.3.11.State of hydrogen refueling infrastructure worldwide (1/2)
6.3.12.State of hydrogen refueling infrastructure worldwide (2/2)
6.3.13.Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure - Europe
6.3.14.Europe TEN-T Core Network
6.3.15.H2ICE Contradiction
6.3.16.HRS in the USA Limited to California
6.3.17.The Clean Energy Partnership
6.3.18.LIFTE H2: higher pressure transportation is needed
6.3.19.LIFTE H2: Mobile H2 refuelers are more competitive
6.3.20.Infrastructure Costs - BEV vs Hydrogen
6.4.Onboard Storage
6.4.1.Options for Onboard Hydrogen Storage
6.4.2.Hydrogen storage methods by stage of development
6.4.3.Options for Physical Hydrogen Storage
6.4.4.Compressed hydrogen storage
6.4.5.Geometries and Limitations of Storage Methods
6.4.6.Compressed storage vessel classification
6.4.7.Reduction in compressed cylinder weight
6.4.8.Compressed Hydrogen in HDVs
6.4.9.Compressed Hydrogen in LDVs
6.4.10.Forvia - Major Tier 1 Explores Rectangular Tanks
6.4.11.FCEV onboard hydrogen tanks
6.4.12.Liquid hydrogen (LH2)
6.4.13.Cryo-compressed hydrogen storage (CcH2)
6.4.14.BMW'S Cryo-compressed storage tank
6.4.15.Chemical Storage
6.4.16.Hydrogen Safety
6.5.Hydrogen Fuel Consumption & Range
6.5.1.Hydrogen Combustion Powered Vehicles
6.5.2.H2-ICE Efficiency vs FCEV
6.5.3.Real World Range Comparisons - H2ICE and FCEVs
6.5.4.Fuel Consumption
6.5.5.FCEV Range Improvements
6.5.6.Hydrogen Consumption Comparisons - FCEV and H2ICE
6.5.7.BEV, FCEV and H2ICE Comparisons
6.5.8.FCEV and H2ICE Range Comparisons.
6.5.9.H2 Storage Required for Parity - Racecar
6.5.10.Volumetric and Gravimetric Requirements for 1km
6.5.11.Volume Required for 1km Travelled
6.5.12.Volume and Weight Required - Tank Considerations
6.5.13.System Efficiency - BEV, FCEV & H2ICE
6.5.14.Well-to-Wheel Consumption
7.HYDROGEN EMBRITTLEMENT
7.1.Hydrogen embrittlement & mechanisms
7.2.Types of hydrogen embrittlement
7.3.Factors influencing H2 embrittlement
7.4.Effect of impurities on H2 embrittlement
7.5.Hydrogen embrittlement & compatible metal alloys
8.FORECASTS
8.1.H2ICE Drivers & Barriers to Adoption
8.2.Forecast Summary - Drivetrain Comparisons
8.3.Forecast Summary - Sector Split
8.4.Forecast Assumptions
8.5.H2ICE Forecasts - Unit Sales 2025-2045 (1)
8.6.H2ICE Forecasts - Unit Sales 2025-2045 (2)
8.7.H2ICE Forecasts - Regional Analysis
8.8.H2ICE Forecasts - Market Shares
8.9.HD Truck Market by Drivetrains, 2025-2045
8.10.H2ICE Forecasts - Market Value
 

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Report Statistics

Slides 235
Forecasts to 2045
Published Aug 2024
ISBN 9781835700587
 

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