ตลาดเซลล์แสงอาทิตย์ Perovskite 2025-2035: เทคโนโลยี ผู้เล่น และแนวโน้ม

Solar power is one of the fastest growing renewable energy technologies globally, with total worldwide solar power generation overtaking wind power in recent years. Substantial investments, government initiatives and consistent research developments, all compounded by a rise in decarbonization goals, has enabled the rapid adoption of this technology. Traditional silicon solar is, however, reaching an efficiency limit, alongside this, the rigid, and heavy nature of silicon solar panels means that it cannot be utilized for all applications. Perovskite solar cells have therefore garnered significant scientific and commercial attention for their light weight and flexible nature, relatively low manufacturing price and ability to enhance the efficiency of silicon solar panels at little extra cost.

 

IDTechEx's latest report "Perovskite Photovoltaic Market 2025-2035: Technologies, Players & Trends" comprehensively covers the emerging perovskite photovoltaic (PV) technologies, the major players and the application areas helping to drive their adoption. Data driven benchmarking of the main perovskite PV technologies, including single junction perovskite, perovskite/silicon tandem and all-perovskite tandem solar cells, along with multiple profiles of key market players, helps to outline the entire perovskite PV sector. Critical analysis of the major and emerging application areas including solar farms, residential rooftop, building integrated PV, agrivoltaics and wireless electronics, helps to formulate granular 10-year forecasts for the entire solar market. IDTechEx forecasts that the annual perovskite PV installations will reach a power generation capacity of almost 85 GW by 2035.

 

 

Perovskites in general refer to a family of materials with a specific cubic crystal structure in the form ABX₃, where the A-site ion is at the center of the lattice, surrounded by B-site cations, which are octahedrally coordinated to anions. Perovskites used in photovoltaics are optoelectronically active; the fundamental structure allows for the conversion of light into electricity. Typically, such materials are comprised of lead, large organics and halides. Perovskite solar cells contain a perovskite active layer which can be deposited as a thin-film using solution-based sheet-to-sheet or roll-to-roll compatible processes, making them very attractive from a financial perspective as processing is easily scaled and automated. Along with this, the use of relatively abundant and inexpensive raw materials to synthesize perovskites means they are considered to be significantly cheaper than other thin-film solar technologies including cadmium telluride (CdTe) and copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), as well as silicon.

 

Single junction perovskite solar cells are unlikely to directly replace all silicon solar technology, due to the scale and maturity of the market. They will, however, be preferred for emerging applications where weight limits exist, and flexibility is required.

 

 

Thin film modules can be up to 90% lighter than silicon modules and therefore are very well suited for vertical building integration, since no significant structural modifications are required. Given the significantly greater vertical available space compared to rooftop space, this application could contribute significantly to renewable energy initiatives. The concept of BIPV has existed commercially since the 1990s, however, the use of this technology has remained restricted to relatively niche applications due to the cost, durability and design required for systems. With the upscale and commercialization of low-cost, light-weight and design flexible perovskite PV, this could become a viable application sector. However, concerns over the lifetime of the technology that is required for BIPV limits the current uptake, and the future scale of integration may be volatile.

 

With the emergence of Internet of Things (IoT), perovskite PV could also be a very suitable choice for self-powered smart electronics. These small electronics typically rely on batteries which require replacement every few years at the expense of high material and labor costs. Providing power to these devices using small low-cost PV modules with greater longevity than batteries is a very promising application.

 

Single junction perovskite solar cells, as with all single junction technologies, will approach an efficiency plateau. This plateau is expected since there exists a maximum theoretical efficiency limit of 30% for a single junction device. Instead, to further improve the efficiency of traditional Si-based solar cells, researchers are exploring the integration of perovskite solar cells with silicon solar cells, in a tandem device architecture. These multi-junction cells possess a much greater theoretical efficiency limit of approximately 43%. In June 2024, a record maximum of 34.6% efficiency was achieved in lab, by Longi.

 

Perovskite/silicon tandem solar cells possess similar mechanical properties to single-junction silicon solar and so they will predominately be used for traditional solar applications, including solar farms and residential rooftops. As first-generation solar technologies reach end-of-life around 2030 and beyond, it is likely an increase in uptake of perovskite/silicon tandem solar will be seen, especially as costs lower with economies of scale. Current price forecasts by IDTechEx see perovskite/silicon tandem solar modules to be comparative in price to single junction silicon solar, by 2035. Further details and comparisons of all technology costs can be found in this latest IDTechEx report.

 

Despite significant innovation and opportunities for perovskite PV technology, there may be some skepticism to integration. As a direct competitor, the scale and maturity of the silicon solar market may hinder the widespread adoption of perovskite solar. Deployments of the technology may initially be slow, with consumers typically risk averse and requiring proof of in-field performance before ramp-up of adoption is seen. Along with this, perovskites are known to suffer significant degradation when exposed to moisture, air and UV light. To overcome this, high-quality encapsulation of the perovskite solar cell is required. Advancements in encapsulant materials and fabrication processes are still ongoing, with many companies now claiming 10+ year lifetimes, with the 25-year target in sight.

 

In this report, IDTechEx further explores the growth drivers of the perovskite PV market, and while improvements to the technology's durability are anticipated in the short term, significant market adoption is expected by the end of the decade.

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