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1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
1.1. | BEV + PHEV Cars 2015-2040: % of Global Car Market |
1.2. | BEV + PHEV Cars 2020-2040: Market Size ($ trillion) |
1.3. | BEV + PHEV Cars 2015-2040: China, Europe, US, RoW |
1.4. | BEV + PHEV Cars 2015-2040: Battery Demand (GWh) |
1.5. | Electric Car Forecast: COVID-19 Impact |
1.6. | BEV, PHEV, FCEV cars 2015-2040 (cars, millions) |
1.7. | Global Car Market 2020-2040: COVID-19 Impact |
2. | INTRODUCTION |
2.1. | What is an Electric Vehicle? |
2.2. | Electric Vehicles: Basic Principle |
2.3. | Parallel and Series Hybrids: Explained |
2.4. | Electric Cars: Typical Specs |
2.5. | What's Driving the Transition to Electric Vehicles? |
2.6. | What are the Barriers for Electric Vehicles? |
2.7. | Comparison of Popular Electric Car Models |
2.8. | Global Car Sales: the Addressable Market |
2.9. | Differences in Short-term and Long-term 'Peak Car' |
2.10. | Fossil Fuel Bans: Explained |
2.11. | Official or Legislated Fossil Fuel Bans |
2.12. | Unofficial, Drafted or Proposed Fossil Fuel Bans |
2.13. | Debunking EV Myths: Emissions Just Shift to Electricity Generation? |
3. | ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN CHINA |
3.1. | China Electric Car Forecast 2015-2040 (cars, millions) |
3.2. | The Rise of Car Sales in China |
3.3. | Six Reasons for the Fall of Car Sales in China |
3.4. | Summary of Falling Car Sales in China 2018-2020 |
3.5. | What's Driving Electrification in China? |
3.6. | China: Best Selling Plug-in Car Models |
3.7. | 2019-2020 New Energy Vehicle Decline |
3.8. | China EV policy: 2019-2022 |
3.9. | China Purchase Subsidy 2020-2022 |
3.10. | China: Double Credit Policy |
3.11. | China Electric Vehicle Subsidy Multipliers |
3.12. | China EV Policy History: 2010-2015 |
3.13. | China EV Policy History: 2016-2018 |
3.14. | New Energy Vehicle Sales by Month, 2016-2020 |
4. | ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN EUROPE |
4.1. | Europe Electric Car Forecast 2016-2040 (UK, France, Germany, Norway, Netherlands, Denmark, RoE) |
4.2. | Concentration of Electric Car Sales |
4.3. | Europe: Best Selling Plug-in Car Models |
4.4. | Europe Emissions Standards |
4.5. | Europe: Moving from Carrot to Stick |
4.6. | Overview of Supportive Policy in Europe |
4.7. | UK Purchase Subsidy |
4.8. | Germany Purchase Subsidy |
4.9. | France Purchase Subsidy |
4.10. | Austria Purchase Subsidy |
4.11. | Ireland Purchase Subsidy |
4.12. | Belgium Purchase Subsidy (Ended) |
4.13. | Spain Purchase Subsidy (Ended) |
4.14. | Luxembourg Purchase Subsidy |
4.15. | Other European Purchase Subsidies |
5. | ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE US |
5.1. | US Plug-in Car Forecast |
5.2. | US : Best Selling Plug-in Car Models |
5.3. | US: Plug-in Electric Vehicle Tax Credit |
5.4. | US Battery Sizes |
5.5. | Automaker Progress Towards Tax Credits |
5.6. | US State Incentives |
5.7. | Pickup Truck Popularity in the US |
5.8. | US Pickup Trucks: OEM Market Share |
5.9. | Midsize Pickup Trucks (ICE) |
5.10. | Full-Size Pickup Trucks (ICE) |
5.11. | US Pickups Trucks a $132 Billion Dollar Market |
5.12. | Why Electric Pickup Trucks? |
5.13. | Tesla: Cybertruck |
5.14. | Ford: F-150 EV |
5.15. | GMC: Hummer EV Electric Super Truck |
5.16. | Nikola: Badger |
5.17. | Fiat Chrysler: Ram / Jeep pickup electrification? |
5.18. | Rivian: R1T |
5.19. | Rivian: Skateboard Platform |
5.20. | Lordstown Motors: Endurance |
5.21. | Workhorse: W-15 |
5.22. | Bollinger Motors: B2 |
5.23. | Bollinger Motors: Electric Platform |
5.24. | Atlis Motor Vehicles: XT |
5.25. | Hercules Electric Vehicles: Alpha |
5.26. | Karma Automotive |
5.27. | Neuron T.One |
5.28. | Electric Pickups: Conclusions |
6. | PREMIUM CARS: SEGMENT ANALYSIS AND BATTERY DEMAND |
6.1. | Definition of 'Premium' Vehicle |
6.2. | Premium Model Specs |
6.3. | Premium BEV Battery Sizes |
6.4. | Premium BEV Battery Forecast |
6.5. | Premium Battery Demand Estimate |
7. | ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES |
7.1. | Li-ion Batteries |
7.1.1. | What is a Li-ion battery? |
7.1.2. | The Battery Trilemma |
7.1.3. | Electrochemistry Definitions 1 |
7.1.4. | Electrochemistry Definitions 2 |
7.1.5. | Lithium-based Battery Family Tree |
7.1.6. | Battery Wish List |
7.1.7. | More Than One Type of Li-ion battery |
7.1.8. | NMC: from 111 to 811 |
7.1.9. | Cobalt: Price Volatility |
7.1.10. | Cathode Performance Comparison |
7.1.11. | EV Models with NMC 811 |
7.1.12. | 811 Commercialisation Examples |
7.1.13. | Commercial Anodes: Graphite |
7.1.14. | The Promise of Silicon-based Anodes |
7.1.15. | The Reality of Silicon |
7.1.16. | Silicon: Incremental Steps |
7.1.17. | What is in a Cell? |
7.1.18. | Inactive Materials Negatively Affect Energy Density |
7.1.19. | Commercial Battery Packaging Technologies |
7.1.20. | Comparison of Commercial Cell Geometries |
7.1.21. | Cell Geometry Choices: Reason or Random? |
7.1.22. | What is NCMA? |
7.1.23. | Historic Li-ion Technology Mix, 2015-2019 (Plug-in Cars) |
7.1.24. | LFP: Second Coming? |
7.1.25. | Lithium-based Batteries Beyond Li-ion |
7.1.26. | Li-ion Chemistry Snapshot: 2020, 2025, 2030 |
7.1.27. | Problems with Batteries |
7.1.28. | Hyundai Kona Takes out a Roof in Canada |
7.1.29. | Battery Reduction |
7.2. | Fuel Cell Cars |
7.2.1. | Historic Growth of Fuel Cell Cars |
7.2.2. | BEV, PHEV, FCEV Cars 2015-2040 (cars, millions) |
7.2.3. | Models overview |
7.2.4. | BMW Fuel Cell Car |
7.2.5. | Long-haul Trucking Opportunity? |
7.2.6. | Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells: Tech Overview |
7.2.7. | Tech Recap: Fuel Cell Inefficiency and Cooling Methods |
7.2.8. | Diminishing Opportunity for Fuel Cells in EVs? |
7.2.9. | Barriers for Fuel Cells |
7.2.10. | Fuel cost comparison per kWh of propulsion in Norway |
7.2.11. | Alternative fuels generation - 2030 vs. 2050 |
7.3. | Electric Traction Motors |
7.3.1. | Electric Traction Motors: Introduction |
7.3.2. | Brushless DC Motors (BLDC): Working Principle |
7.3.3. | BLDC Motors: Advantages, Disadvantages |
7.3.4. | BLDC Motors: Benchmarking Scores |
7.3.5. | Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSM): Working Principle |
7.3.6. | PMSM: Advantages, Disadvantages |
7.3.7. | PMSM: Benchmarking Scores |
7.3.8. | Differences Between PMSM and BLDC |
7.3.9. | Wound Rotor Synchronous Motor (WRSM): Working Principle |
7.3.10. | WRSM Motors: Benchmarking Scores |
7.3.11. | WRSM: Advantages, Disadvantages |
7.3.12. | AC Induction Motors (ACIM): Working Principle |
7.3.13. | AC Induction Motor (ACIM) |
7.3.14. | AC Induction Motors: Benchmarking Scores |
7.3.15. | AC Induction Motor: Advantages, Disadvantages |
7.3.16. | Reluctance Motors |
7.3.17. | Reluctance Motor: Working Principle |
7.3.18. | Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM) |
7.3.19. | Switched Reluctance Motors: Benchmarking Scores |
7.3.20. | Permanent Magnet Switched Reluctance (PMSR) |
7.3.21. | PMSR Motors: Benchmarking Scores |
7.4. | Electric Traction Motors: Summary and Benchmarking Results |
7.4.1. | Benchmarking Electric Traction Motors |
7.4.2. | Motor Efficiency Comparison |
7.4.3. | Magnet Price Increase? |
7.4.4. | Multiple Motors: Explained |
7.4.5. | Lucid Motors: Dual PMSM? |
7.4.6. | Motor per Vehicle and kWp per Vehicle Assumptions |
7.4.7. | Electric Traction Motor Technology Forecast 2020-2030 |
7.5. | High Voltage Electric Cars: Models & Commentary |
7.5.1. | What is 'Power Electronics' in an Electric Vehicle |
7.5.2. | High Voltage: The Basics |
7.5.3. | Lucid Motors |
7.5.4. | Tesla vs Lucid |
7.5.5. | Tesla vs VW Group |
7.5.6. | SiC Inverters: The Transition so Far |
8. | AUTONOMOUS CARS |
8.1. | Why Autonomous Cars? |
8.2. | Levels of Automation |
8.3. | Future Mobility Scenarios |
8.4. | Autonomous Driving Testing Race |
8.5. | Evolution of Sensor Suite: Level 1 to Level 5 |
8.6. | Autonomous Vehicle = Electric Vehicle? |
8.7. | Lidar Versus Camera |
8.8. | Lidar Costs |
8.9. | Lidar, Radar, Camera & Ultrasonic Sensor Comparison |
8.10. | How Many Cameras Needed: Level 1 - Level 5 |
9. | FORECASTS & ASSUMPTIONS |
9.1. | Global Car Sales: the Addressable Market |
9.2. | Global Car Sales Forecast 2020-2040: Methodology |
9.3. | Short-term Forecast Methodology (Cars) |
9.4. | Electric Car Forecasts |
9.5. | Cars Battery Assumptions and Demand |
9.6. | Forecast Assumptions |
9.7. | Autonomous Vehicle Assumptions and Uncertainty |
9.8. | Battery Shortage Assumptions |
9.9. | Li-ion Cell and Pack Price Assumptions 2020-2030 |
9.10. | Assumptions: Upfront Price Parity |
Slides | 211 |
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Forecasts to | 2040 |