Baterías de iones de litio y sistemas de gestión de baterías para vehículos eléctricos 2026-2036: tecnologías, previsiones y actores

The market for Li-ion batteries in electric vehicles (EVs) is set to grow from US$170 billion in 2026 to US$320 billion in 2036, representing a CAGR of 6.5%. China remains ahead of the curve in terms of new electric vehicle sales, with more than 50% of new car sales in 2025 being battery electric or plug-in hybrid. Europe is set to catch up during the next decade, with increasing EV adoption driven by regulatory efforts. Meanwhile, the US has fallen somewhat behind due to the expiry of tax credits for new EVs and removal of carbon emissions mandates, although it is expected that growth will resume in the medium-term. Cars are the largest market segment, but electric commercial vehicles are expected to see higher growth rates due to enabling lower total cost of ownership (TCO). In total, electric vehicle Li-ion demand is expected to exceed 4500 GWh in 2036.

 

 

One of the major drivers of electric vehicle adoption, and therefore the EV battery materials market, is regulation. Tax credits and government subsidies/investment were significant factors in the rapid development of the electric vehicle market in China, for example. Meanwhile, in Europe the focus has been on gradual increasing of carbon emissions regulations, which will drive regulation in the medium-term. Expiry of a consumer tax credit and tailpipe emissions mandates in the US has also resulted in slowdown in EV sales in the short-term, though in IDTechEx's assessment in the medium and long term, EV demand is expected to pick back up in the US. Coverage on regulatory trends and industry action to localize supply chains in the US are provided in this report.

 

There are a large range of cell chemistries that fall under the Li-ion umbrella, offering different electrochemical profiles. Chemistry and form factor choices are highly dependent on application area.

 

Electric cars, the largest EV segment, have shifted towards LFP, due to the dominance of Chinese cell suppliers on the market, and the low cost and high cycle life of LFP cells. However, LFP has more limited energy density compared to ternary oxide cells (e.g. NMC and NCA), especially volumetrically. To counteract this, the industry has shifted largely towards prismatic LFP cells for mass-market BEV cars, as the prismatic form factor offers greater packing efficiency, improving pack-level volumetric energy density. IDTechEx anticipates a trend towards higher energy density in both the mass-market LFP and premium NMC/NCA market, with deployment of LMFP beginning in 2026, Li-Mn-rich in 2027/2028 through GM, and a trend towards higher nickel content in NMC and NCA.

 

 

Beyond passenger cars, both chemistry and form factor choices are more diverse. NMC offers higher power and gravimetric energy density which is important for heavy-duty applications and off-highway. Cylindrical and pouch cells tend to offer higher gravimetric energy density than prismatic cells, which also makes them better suited to heavy duty applications. However, cycle life is especially important for commercial vehicles. In cars, a cycle life of ~1000 cycles is generally acceptable, however for commercial vehicles, 3000-5000 cycles are required. This allows mid-nickel NMC to maintain a niche even as it is phased out in the car market.

 

An updated price analysis of key cathode chemistries including LFP and NMC is included in this IDTechEx report, reflecting increasing prices in 2026, relative to a five-year low in 2025. Also included is benchmarking of next-generation cell chemistries and cell designs, including silicon anode, solid-state and lithium-metal, which will begin to see deployment in premium cars in the next few years, and will allow for energy densities exceeding 350 Wh/kg and 800 Wh/L.

 

At the pack-level, batteries for electric cars are almost entirely assembled in-house by automotive OEMs, to reduce costs and provide greater control over the final product. Pack design considerations can help to improve vehicle range in premium and mass-market electric cars. This includes utilization of cell-to-pack (CTP) or cell-to-body (CTB) technology, which has become increasingly common in China. By minimizing non-cell materials in the pack, e.g. by removing module casings and reducing wiring, the overall energy density of the vehicle can be significantly increased, improving range.

 

Meanwhile, non-car segments outside of micro-vehicles are still primarily served by independent turnkey pack manufacturers, such as Microvast, Forsee Power, the BMZ Group, Webasto, Proventia and BorgWarner. This is because the volume of sales is sufficiently low that the up-front cost to the automotive OEM of developing in-house battery assembly is not justified. There is a trend towards increasing vertical integration for turnkey pack manufacturers, whether by developing cells in house or developing thermal management systems in-house. This is primarily to increase profit margins and increase control over the final product. However, the market remains fraught with several major acquisitions, liquidations and bankruptcies since 2020, as reported by IDTechEx.

 

Improvements to battery management systems (BMS) can enable improved battery pack safety, faster charging and longer lifetimes. This can include improvements to BMS hardware (e.g. sensors, integrated circuits (ICs), control boards) or to software. The newly conducted BMS patent analysis in this IDTechEx report has found that software is an increasing focus for battery and automotive suppliers over the last decade.

 

Key active areas for BMS improvement also include improving state (SoX) estimation, remaining useful lifetime estimation and diagnostics, developing fast charging protocols, providing cell-level control, developing wireless BMS and providing cloud analytics, all of which are comprehensively covered in this report.

 

This report offers ten-year forecasts of the Li-ion battery market for electric vehicles, including GWh demand and US$B value for BEV cars, PHEV cars, buses, heavy-duty trucks, medium-duty trucks, light commercial vehicles and micro-EVs. Battery cell and pack prices for BEV cars and forecasts by cell chemistry (GWh) are also included.

 

This report offers access to 23 company profiles across electric vehicle cell suppliers, pack assemblers and battery management system developers.

Analysis of the automotive market:

 

Analysis of trends in Li-ion cells:

 

Analysis of trends in battery packs:

 

Analysis of trends in battery management systems:

 

Evaluation and benchmarking of North American and European turnkey battery packs:

 

Overview of electric vehicle market sectors and battery requirements for different applications:

 

10 Year Market Forecasts & Analysis:

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