Les ventes de voitures électriques dépasseront les ventes d'ICE d'ici 2035.

Voitures électriques : 2025-2045 : technologies, marchés, acteurs, prévisions

Prévisions granulaires sur 20 ans pour les marchés des voitures électriques et les technologies clés, notamment les groupes motopropulseurs (BEV, FCEV, PHEV), les batteries (LFP, NMC, NCA), les moteurs (PMSM, WRSM, ACIM), les régions (États-Unis, UE + Royaume-Uni + AELE, Chine, RoW), l'électronique de puissance.


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Despite market headwinds, battery electric cars are set to dominate the automotive industry. It is a question of when, not if, they overtake internal combustion engine (ICE) sales globally. This report offers a deep dive into the current slowdown in growth in key regions, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the regulations and policies that will shake up the market in 2025 and beyond.
 
The car market is the largest transport sector, with IDTechEx estimating that over 90 million vehicles were sold globally in 2023. This sector also contributes significantly to road transport greenhouse gas emissions, so there is a strong push to decarbonize vehicles. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are the best route to achieving this with zero tailpipe emissions and a well-established market status (over 10 million BEVs were sold in 2023). Electric cars are also a strong driver in the production and development of a host of ancillary products, such as lithium-ion batteries, electric motors, power electronics, and all the advanced and critical materials that go into these supply chains.
 
Comprehensive global coverage
IDTechEx research reveals how BEV and PHEV sales have increased since 2011, although H1 2024 figures are slightly below the same period in 2023. Source: IDTechEx.
 
This IDTechEx research report contains global market analysis based on extensive sales and technical data. This includes analysis of key, best-selling models, average battery capacity, and motor trends. IDTechEx breaks down the 14.4 million plug-in vehicles sold in 2023 to reveal the underlying trends in this fast-evolving market. Key market aspects discussed include:
  • The slow growth of the European EV market, and how much of this can be attributed to a poor economic situation in Germany, the bloc's largest market.
  • The huge success of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) globally, particularly in China, which now firmly holds the largest EV market in the world.
  • The emergence of the electric pickup in the US, and how this sector is growing to emulate the successes of the conventional pickup market.
  • Upcoming major changes in regulations from 2025, particularly in Europe, which mark the beginning of the end for the combustion car.
 
Regulations will drive adoption, and 2025 is a major step towards the 2035 ICE bans
Up until now, the electric car market has primarily been driven by consumer preference and generous government incentives. This has greatly benefitted early adopters, but outside of China EVs have mainly been vehicles in the premium luxury segment. However, the landscape is shifting, particularly in Europe. Governments are withdrawing subsidies, the 'carrot', and replacing them with the 'stick': tougher CO2 regulations. From now on, increasingly large shares of a manufacturer's sales must be zero emission to avoid astronomical fines. For the EU, the next tightening will be in 2025, with a further hike in 2030 before a full ICE ban in 2035. Manufacturers and countries are split on these rules, with some protesting and others acquiescing. In the absence of a major change in regulations, IDTechEx expects that EV sales must be drastically improved next year to avoid billions in fines.
 
IDTechEx has estimated the likely fine in 2025 for major manufacturers if they do not increase their EV share (from a 2023 baseline). Volkswagen stands out as particularly exposed. Source: IDTechEx.
 
Although Europe has the strictest CO2 policies, the USA also has two sets of regulations from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and California Air Resources Board (CARB). These will drive increased electric car sales in the world's second-largest car market.
 
IDTechEx expects China, the world's biggest car market by volume, could reach the extraordinary milestone in 2024 of 50% of new car sales being 'New Energy Vehicles' (NEVs, incl. BEV and PHEV). This has drastically outpaced the government's expectations, forcing them to adjust the dual-credit system to reflect this. China may have reached a critical mass in EV adoption and now no longer needs to rely on a system of regulation. Plug-in hybrids are proving especially popular in China, as unlike other regions they are treated no differently from a subsidy perspective than BEVs despite essentially being ICE cars with an electric motor.
 
Technology takeaways
Electric vehicle technology is primarily driven by the 'big three' - Li-ion batteries, traction motors, and power electronics.
 
LFP continues its comeback driven by the low-cost segment and the Chinese market.
Not all lithium-ion batteries are the same, although they leverage the same basic chemical principles. Technology diversification has emerged as a key strategy for dealing with supply chain volatility and shortages. EV manufacturers have long been searching for greater vehicle ranges, and many settled on nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) type batteries due to their high energy density. However, NMC has shown itself to rely on vulnerable supply chains due to the concentrations of nickel, cobalt, and manganese. These materials are also higher cost, resulting in higher cost batteries. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) has seen a resurgence in recent years. Initially disregarded for electric car use due to its relatively low energy density, the cathode has seen increased popularity due to a variety of reasons. These include cell-to-pack innovations that allow for a higher pack energy density (offsetting the low cell energy density). Demand for low-cost models, with a smaller required driving range, also presents a positive outlook for LFP batteries.
Global cathode market shares. Since 2019 LFP has seen an increase in relative share, whilst NMC-type batteries have moved to higher nickel contents. The report splits these out by key region, illuminating the differences in the deployment of cathodes.
 
 
Market Forecasts
This report contains granular 20-year forecasts & analysis, including:
  • Electric car sales by powertrain (BEV, PHEV, FCEV).
  • Electric car sales by region (USA, China, Europe, RoW).
  • Average battery pack capacities, both historic and forecast
  • Li-ion cathode forecasts
  • Battery demand forecast for electric cars (GWh)
  • Electric car market value (US$)
This report provides critical market intelligence across the electric car markets containing data up to H1 2024.
 
Market analysis, both global and regional
  • Global BEV, PHEV, and FCEV sales figures up to H1 2024. Regional breakdowns across Europe, USA, and China. Market growth and penetration rates of electric cars, and sales by manufacturer.
  • Major OEMs EV sales and approach.
  • Current and upcoming regulations that will affect the adoption of EVs (such as the EUs CO2 limits, EPA and CARB rules, and the dual-credit system).
  • IDTechEx assessment of the impact of these regulations on EV sales in 2025 and beyond.
  • Granular 20-year forecasts for global car sales by powertrain.
 
Technology trends
  • Coverage of the 'big 3' in EVs; batteries, motors, and power electronics.
  • Li-ion battery market by cathode chemistry. Outlook for Li-ion batteries, including solid-state batteries.
  • Traction motor types, including current market analysis and IDTechEx outlook.
  • Power electronics, including the emergence of 800 Volt architecture, silicon carbide (SiC), gallium nitride (GaN).
  • Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs),sales performance by regions and IDTechEx market outlook.
 
Forecasts
  • 20 year forecasts by powertrain (BEV, PHEV, FCEV), regions (USA, Europe, China, RoW), battery demand (GWh), and market value.
Report MetricsDetails
Historic Data2011 - 2024
CAGRThe electric car market will reach US$ 2.83 trillion by 2045. This represents a CAGR of 7.6%.
Forecast Period2025 - 2045
Forecast UnitsUnits, US$, GWh.
Regions CoveredWorldwide, Europe, North America (USA + Canada), China
Segments CoveredPlug-in electric cars. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, fuel cell electric vehicles.
Analyst access from IDTechEx
All report purchases include up to 30 minutes telephone time with an expert analyst who will help you link key findings in the report to the business issues you're addressing. This needs to be used within three months of purchasing the report.
Further information
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Report Introduction
1.2.Electric Vehicle Definitions
1.3.Global EV Sales, 2011 - H1 2024
1.4.Electric Car Sales 2015-2045: BEV, PHEV, FCEV, ICE
1.5.Peak Car - Global Car Sales 2015-2045
1.6.Plug-in Car Forecasts: US, China, Europe, and RoW
1.7.Regional Snapshot - China
1.8.Regional Snapshot - EU + UK + EFTA
1.9.Regional Snapshot - USA
2.GLOBAL TRENDS & MARKET DRIVERS
2.1.Electric Vehicle Definitions
2.2.Global EV Sales, 2011 - H1 2024
2.3.A Temporary Slowdown in Growth or Longer-term Issues
2.4.BYD and Tesla Remain Biggest EV Sellers
2.5.OEM EV Profitability Varies Significantly
2.6.Automaker EV Targets
2.7.Automotive OEM Targets - Key Adjustments (1)
2.8.Automotive OEM Targets - Key Adjustments (2)
2.9.Global Plug-in Car Forecasts (1)
2.10.Global Plug-in Car Forecasts (2)
2.11.Global Electric Car Market Value by Powertrain
2.12.Electric Car Motor Trends
2.13.Global Battery Chemistry
2.14.Average Battery Capacity Forecast
2.15.Global Electric Car Battery Demand
2.16.Overview of charging levels
2.17.Six key market trends in EV charging
2.18.General points about the EV charging market
2.19.Global charging infrastructure installations
2.20.Japan - Low Electrification Rates
2.21.South Korea
3.USA: POLICY, MARKETS, FORECASTS
3.1.USA - Sales, Policy and Players Overview
3.2.USA - H1 2024 Sales
3.3.US EV Market Shares
3.4.US EV Market - Battery Trends
3.5.US Federal Tax Credit
3.6.US Federal Tax Credit - IRA Update
3.7.US Tariffs Tax Credit - Eligible Vehicles
3.8.US - SUVs and Crossovers Gain Traction
3.9.Electric Pickups Sales Grow
3.10.Pickup Energy Consumption
3.11.Electric Pickup Benchmarking
3.12.Average Range and Battery Capacity US
3.13.US Car Pricing
3.14.US Vehicle Pricing Forecasts
3.15.Li-ion Pack Price and Average EV Car Price
3.16.Growth of EV charging infrastructure in US
3.17.USA EPA Regulations Overview
3.18.EPA Fleet Emissions - 2022 Data Assessment
3.19.2022 OEM CO2 Results - USA
3.20.ICE Bans Beyond 2035
3.21.Total Vehicle Sales - USA
4.EUROPE + UK + EFTA: POLICY, MARKETS, FORECASTS
4.1.Europe Summary
4.2.Regional Trends: EU + UK + EFTA
4.3.Europe - H1 2024 Sales Data
4.4.European EV Car Market by Country
4.5.BEV vs Car Market Growth - Regional Disparity
4.6.Germany - Abrupt Subsidy Cancellation Causes Downturn
4.7.Europe Regulations - Overview
4.8.EU Passenger Car Emissions
4.9.Supercar Manufacturers Dodge ICE Ban in Europe
4.10.Impact of Regulations on Supercar Manufacturers
4.11.OEM Specific Target Calculation
4.12.EU OEM Pools
4.13.EU - OEM Targets
4.14.2023 CO2 Emissions Performance by OEM - Europe
4.15.2025 Potential OEM Emissions Fines
4.16.Pathways to Compliance
4.17.Plug-in Hybrid Outlook - Europe
4.18.Can Pooling Alone Meet Targets?
4.19.OEM Compliance BEV Share Forecasts
4.20.European EV Market by Brand
4.21.European Battery Chemistry Market
4.22.EU China BEV Trade Tariffs
4.23.EU - Anti-Subsidy Tariffs
4.24.EU China Trade Figures
4.25.Automotive Reactions to Tariffs
4.26.The state of EV charging infrastructure in Europe
4.27.Growth of EV charging infrastructure in EU
4.28.Private and public charging penetration in Europe
4.29.European EV Forecast - Market Shares
4.30.European EV Forecast - Annual Sales
5.CHINA: POLICY, MARKETS, FORECASTS
5.1.China - Sales, Policy and Players Overview
5.2.New energy vehicles
5.3.China - NEV Market Continues to Grow
5.4.Chinese EV Market by OEM
5.5.NEV Market - BEV vs PHEV Price Decreases
5.6.OEMs Show Continued Interest in PHEVs
5.7.PHEV and BEV Price Forecasts
5.8.NEV Pricing in China
5.9.China Purchase Subsidies Extended
5.10.The Dual-Credit System
5.11.Increased NEV Sales Triggers Revision of Credit System
5.12.Dual-Credit Adjustments
5.13.Battery Chemistry Trends China - LFP Increasingly Dominant
5.14.The status of public charging in China
5.15.Public charging installations in China by province and municipalities
5.16.Electric Car Forecast by Powertrain in China
6.TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
6.1.The 'Big Three' in EV
7.BATTERIES
7.1.Batteries for Electric Cars
7.2.What is a Li-ion battery?
7.3.Lithium battery chemistries
7.4.Types of lithium battery
7.5.Key technology developments
7.6.Li-ion performance and technology timeline
7.7.Readiness level snapshot
7.8.Are there alternatives to Li-ion?
7.9.Liquid vs. Solid-state Batteries
7.10.MG and SAIC to Reveal Solid-State Model in 2025
7.11.The reality of silicon
7.12.Current silicon use
7.13.Cathode materials - LCO and LFP
7.14.Cathode materials - NMC, NCA and LMO
7.15.Cathode comparisons
7.16.Energy density by cathode
7.17.LFP adoption in electric vehicles
7.18.Cell Manufacturer Market Shares
7.19.Electric Car Battery Manufacturer Market
7.20.Shifts in cell and pack design
7.21.Modular pack designs
7.22.What is Cell-to-pack?
7.23.Drivers and Challenges for Cell-to-pack
7.24.What is cell-to-chassis/body?
7.25.Gravimetric Energy Density and Cell-to-pack Ratio
7.26.BYD Blade Battery
7.27.CATL cell to pack
7.28.Average Battery Capacity Forecast
7.29.Cathode Market Share in Li-ion For EVs
7.30.Global Electric Car Battery Demand
8.ELECTRIC MOTORS
8.1.Summary of Traction Motor Types
8.2.Convergence on PM Motors by Major Automakers
8.3.Motor Type Market Share Forecast
8.4.Commentary on Electric Traction Motor Trends in Cars
8.5.OEM & Tier 1 Approaches to Eliminate Rare Earths
8.6.BEV Power Density Benchmarking
9.POWER ELECTRONICS
9.1.Power Electronics in Electric Vehicles
9.2.What is Power Electronics?
9.3.Benchmarking Silicon, Silicon Carbide & Gallium Nitride Semiconductors
9.4.Automotive GaN Device Suppliers are Growing
9.5.GaN vs SiC potential in the Inverter
9.6.Inverter Power Density Increases Over Time
9.7.SiC Drives 800V Platforms
9.8.GMC Hummer: 800V charging without 800V architecture
9.9.Other Split Battery Pack Vehicles: Tesla, Porsche, Ford
9.10.Tesla Cybertruck: Split Battery with 800V Architecture
9.11.Porsche Taycan: Boost Converter
9.12.800V Adoption 2023
9.13.800V Model Announcements in China (2022-2024)
9.14.800V For & Against
10.FUEL CELL ELECTRIC VEHICLES
10.1.What is a Fuel Cell Vehicle?
10.2.Outlook for Fuel Cell Passenger Cars
10.3.Attraction of Fuel Cell Vehicles
10.4.Deployment Barriers for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles
10.5.The Hydrogen Economy
10.6.The Colors of Hydrogen
10.7.System Efficiency Between BEVs and FCEVs
10.8.Attitude to FCEV Cars by Company
10.9.Price and Range Comparison of BEV and FCEV Cars
10.10.Outlook for Fuel Cell Passenger Cars
11.FORECASTS
11.1.Forecast Assumptions
11.2.Global Car Forecasts, Region and Powertrain (1)
11.3.Global Car Forecasts, Region and Powertrain (2)
11.4.Global Car Forecasts, Region and Powertrain (3)
11.5.EV Pricing, 2020-2045
11.6.Global Electric Car Market Value by Powertrain
11.7.Average Battery Capacity Forecast
11.8.Cathode Market Share in Li-ion For EVs
11.9.Global Electric Car Battery Demand
11.10.Battery Demand for Plug-in Vehicles by Drivetrain
 

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Report Statistics

Slides 188
Forecasts to 2045
Published Oct 2024
ISBN 9781835700716
 

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