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Veicoli elettrici in Cina 2019-2029

Mercati, tecnologia, prospettive di esportazione/importazione

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The important new IDTechEx report, "Electric Vehicles in China 2019-2029" finds that the market penetration in China of electric buses is more impressive than electric cars. However, it cautions that, even here, two or more diesel buses are still made for every electric one in China. There has never been support to electrify one million polluting old school buses but IDTechEx predicts when their up front price in electric form meets conventional and sales take off. The statement that China has 400,000 large pure electric buses and that is 99% of the number in the world is true but not the whole story. Performance comparisons, battery specifications and suppliers - it is all summarised in information-packed pages.
Understand why electric bus exports but not car or truck exports are impressive but e-trucks will become a huge business in China. Learn how Chinese companies, often with Chinese government backing are continuing to buy brands, routes to market and advanced technology. Some new Chinese technologies are impressive but it eagerly seeks others. Which? The new data IDTechEx has gathered, using its multi-lingual PhD level analysts, make it optimistic about solar road and drone, hub motor and supercapacitor vehicle leadership for example. Discover which type of EV will sell from China at three times the volume of electric bikes.
China is catching up in robot shuttles and software-controlled fleets and updates. It needs to do better in power electronic, high energy density supercapacitors, structural electronics and other identified aspects. With EV batteries becoming smaller soon due to top up charging at speed and other innovations, some Chinese gigafactories may become stranded assets. When? Understand how Chinese EV components will succeed hugely abroad and damage the business of traditional western Tier One suppliers insufficiently investing in R&D.
The 155 page "Electric Vehicles in China 2019-2029" embraces 51 companies. The 34 page "Executive summary and conclusions" reveals of new infograms, tables and graphs and detailed forecasts. They give rapid insight into good and bad EV sectors in China, largest manufacturers, export and import gaps in the market, technology trends and tools for prediction. Emphasis is on distilled information with many conclusions and predictions.
The Introduction to the report then examines pollution, congestion, vehicle specifications and evolving capability in China and why certain vehicles are favoured by the government. Regulatory, reuse, recycling and traceability in China are covered.
Chapter 3 concerns small EVs in China - 2 and 3 wheel and car-like vehicles. It embraces market slowdowns, restrictions and growth opportunities. Chapter 5 summarises the electric car situation in China with examples of sales and technology leadership by company.
Chapter 4 is more detailed on the large activity in buses and, in future, trucks and their batteries, the largest cost for now. Here you find costing and powertrain evolution. Learn of the fuel cell vehicle strategy and initiatives and supercapacitor buses and trucks eliminating traction batteries. See negligence and innovation with buses and trucks. Chapter 6 profiles leaders BYD and Yutong in a critical but balanced manner. IDTechEx describes them as successful opposites both having big challenges and opportunities ahead.
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Table of Contents
1.1.Terminology in China
1.2.Purpose of this report and primary conclusions
1.2.1.Purpose and methodology
1.2.2.Primary conclusions
1.3.Control economy
1.3.1.How the government controls and protects industry
1.3.2.Subsidy changes for NEVs in 2018
1.3.3."Double credit" policy: CAFC + NEV
1.4.Peak in overall car sales then peak in electric car sales k globally - goodbye to many things...
1.5.Chinese auto companies well diversified beyond cars
1.6.Why China is leapfrogging to pure electric
1.7.Pure electric vehicle adoption: small vehicles cost effective first
1.8.Ambitious China: new models, acquisitions, global leadership
1.8.1.Examples of new models 2015-2019
1.8.2.Buying brands, routes to market, innovation: example Geely
1.8.3.EV Sectors where China is leading in output yellow or technology green
1.9.Foreign participation in the Chinese market: Gao Feng view with IDTechEx comment
1.10.Market projections
1.10.1.Global EV demand $ billion 2019-2029
1.10.2.New energy vehicle monthly sales 2016-2018 Chinese NEV sales breakdown Chinese NEV sales breakdown (Jan-Aug)
1.10.5.NEV sales China Nov 2017 - Nov 2018
1.10.6.Pure electric vehicle sales China to 2014-2018
1.10.7.Forecast numbers for selected sectors heavily involving demand in China 2019-2029
1.10.8.Forecast unit value for selected sectors heavily involving demand in China 2019-2029
1.10.9.Forecast market value for selected sectors heavily involving demand in China 2019-2029
1.11.Bloomberg electric car forecast
1.12.EV charging infrastructure development in China
1.13.National plan for xEV battery in China
2.1.Population rises, cities dominate, parking and emissions unsustainable
2.2.Emissions cause much more injury than previously realised
2.3.Pollution in China
2.3.2.Global warming and China
2.3.3.Local emissions: complex battle continues
2.3.4.River and sea pollution
2.3.5.Lead poisoning from the wrong electric vehicles
2.3.6.Congestion in China
2.3.7.Turning a blind eye to some solutions
2.4.Powertrain and advanced charging options
2.4.1.Cost projections in selected countries for various powertrains
2.4.2.Powertrain cost comparison in China
2.5.Pure electric vehicle viability vs energy storage kWh in bus/truck 2010-2040
2.6.Less battery: supercapacitor, fuel cell combinations
2.7.Battery parameters in pure electric buses and trucks in China 2019
2.8.Regulatory framework for EV battery reuse and recycling
2.8.1.The EV battery recycling and traceability management platform
2.8.2.Nalon Battery, Shenzhen
3.1.Micro EVs, e-Bikes, e-Scooters, e-Motorbikes, Mobility for Disabled
3.2.E-Bike Classifications and Regulations
3.3.Statistics: electric bike collapse in China
3.3.1.Market drivers, sales, exports
3.3.2.Top electric bike manufacturers in China
3.3.3.Bans of e-bikes in China
3.4.Scenario 2019-2029
3.5.Many types of micro EV and two wheeler
3.6.Drivers for growth in Chinese production of up-market two and three wheelers
4.2.Artificial demand
4.3.Top sales of electric cars in China by manufacturer
4.4.World-beating car innovation sometimes: Hanergy EIEV cars in 2020 with GaAs photovoltaics
4.5.Fuel cell cars
4.6.Tesla begins sales of cheaper Model 3 in China - February 2019
4.7.Great Wall Motor ORA R1 - world's cheapest electric car?
5.2.Types of truck and bus
5.3.Types of electrified bus
5.4.China cost advantage
5.5.Key emerging technology for electric buses and trucks; top up charging
5.6.China's strategy for fuel cell vehicles
5.6.1.Emergence of fuel cell commercial vehicles
5.6.2.Some medium sized fleets of fuel cell vehicles deployed
5.7.Solar buses in China
5.7.1.Large buses
5.7.2.Energy independent electric bus: NFH-H microbus China
5.8.Chinese supercapacitor vehicles spreading worldwide
5.8.1.Battery replacement: supercapacitor viability vs capacity kWh 2010-2040
5.9.Other key enabling technology
5.10.Heavy duty transit buses worldwide 2022
5.11.Mapping: Top electric bus manufacturers and Li-ion battery pack suppliers
5.12.Examples of top electric buses, battery type and performance
5.13.One million school buses neglected
5.13.1.School bus innovation
5.14.Trucks in China
5.14.1.Some of the top truck manufacturers
5.14.2.Trucks in China
5.14.3.Short haul Class 8 pure electric trucks
5.14.4.Foreign collaboration: TEVA / JAC hybrid truck
5.14.5.Supercapacitor trucks
5.14.6.Fuel cell-battery hybrid systems
7.2.Growing population and growing demand for food
7.3.Major crop yields are plateauing
7.4.Employment in agriculture
7.5.Global evolution of employment in agriculture
7.6.Aging farmer population
7.7.Trends in minimum wages globally
7.8.Towards ultra precision agriculture via the variable rate technology route
7.9.Ultra Precision farming will cause upheaval in the farming value chain
7.10.Agricultural robotics and ultra precision agriculture will cause upheaval in agriculture's value chain
7.11.Agriculture is one the last major industries to digitize: a look a investment in data analytics/ management firms in agricultural and dairy farming
7.12.The battle of business models between RaaS and equipment sales
7.13.Transition towards swarms of small, slow, cheap and unmanned robots
7.14.Market and technology readiness by agricultural activity
7.15.Technology progression towards driverless autonomous large-sized tractors
7.16.Technology progression towards autonomous, ultra precision de-weeding
7.17.Technology and market progression roadmap for robotic fresh fruit harvesting
7.18.20-year market forecasts (2018-2038) for agricultural robots and drones segmented by 16 technologies
7.19.Drones: dominant designs begin to emerge
7.20.Drones: global geographical spread of companies
7.21.Ten-year market forecasts for agricultural drones

Report Statistics

Slides 156
Forecasts to 2029

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