แบตเตอรี่สำหรับการจัดเก็บพลังงานแบบอยู่กับที่ 2025-2035: ตลาด การคาดการณ์ ผู้เล่น และเทคโนโลยี

Battery demand for stationary energy storage (ES) is set to grow as the volume of renewable energy sources (RES) penetrating electricity grids increases. Governments and states are also announcing incentives and schemes, and implementing targets, to promote the growth of battery storage. IDTechEx forecasts that by 2035, the Li-ion battery energy storage system (BESS) market will reach US$109B in value, and that by 2035, over 4.4 TWh of Li-ion BESS will be installed cumulatively worldwide.

 

Li-ion batteries (LIBs) are the dominant BESS technology in the current market, accounting for over 90% of global installations of electrochemical ES. Their high performance and relatively fast cost reductions over the past decade have been key to their successful growth. This has been facilitated by increasing demand for LIBs in the electric vehicles (EV) sector. To illustrate this, Li-ion battery demand across EV, energy storage system (ESS), and consumer electronics sectors reached ~960 GWh in 2023; a significant increase from ~400 GWh in 2021. Indeed, the EV sector still dominates total demand, but Li-ion demand for ESS has continued to grow in volume, and increased its share of demand by sector, up to 10% in 2023.

 

 

Other BESS technologies in future could look to take increasing market share from Li-ion BESS. Potential future material constraints for LIBs could make other BESS technologies, which use more widely abundant materials, more cost competitive. This could include Na-ion batteries, redox flow batteries (RFB), metal-air batteries, thermal batteries, etc. Moreover, some of these technologies can benefit from decoupled energy and power, which means that at longer durations of storage, on a $/kWh basis, they could promise lower costs than Li-ion. However, and ultimately, IDTechEx expect LIBs to continue dominating the stationary BESS market in the medium term. Other potential benefits of these alternative BESS technologies could include more easily recyclable materials, and the omission of flammable electrolytes, bringing safety advantages.

 

Li-ion BESS safety remains a key area of importance in the market. Root causes of BESS failure can be due to poor installations, design, manufacturing, or the BESS performing outside of its specifications. LFP has often also been regarded as a safer chemistry than NMC, though this is not always clear-cut. LFP cells generally have greater thermal stability and thus lower risk of entering thermal runaway, though they pose a greater hazardous risk once they enter thermal runaway. Different materials and sub-systems can be implemented to reduce risk of thermal runaway, or the spreading of fires in the case of a hazardous event occurring. However, BESS safety remains an area for innovation. This report provides discussion and analysis on root causes of BESS failures, thermal runaway and the impact of cell chemistry and form factor, players' safety designs, thermal management technologies (i.e., forced air versus liquid cooling) and players, battery fire tests and regulations.

 

As well as potentially facilitating safer systems, LFP cells also facilitate Li-ion BESS with lower costs and longer cycle life. LFP is now the dominant chemistry in the Li-ion BESS market for these reasons. However, BESS using LFP cells exhibit lower system-level energy densities than those using NMC cells. To counter this effect, many Chinese players have launched BESS technologies using larger cell formats, giving rise to 'containerized' BESS with 5 MWh capacities or greater. Larger cells typically exhibit higher energy densities, and utilize more of the space within BESS containers, increasing the system-level volumetric energy density. This therefore results in fewer BESS being needed for a given project capacity, meaning projects can be installed over smaller spatial footprints (kWh/m²), and with reduced installation times and project costs. While energy density is not as crucial in the grid-scale BESS sector as it is in the EV sector, the shift to and growing dominance of LFP will mean that offering LFP BESS with higher energy densities will be one of the key methods for BESS integrators to differentiate themselves. This IDTechEx report provides granular analysis on Li-ion BESS technology trends and benchmarks key BESS manufacturers' Li-ion technologies.

 

As well as Chinese players launching BESS with greater energy densities, several have also shown increasing signs of participating more in overseas markets. The price war on Li-ion BESS in China has made it increasingly difficult for these players to offer BESS at costs low enough to remain competitive, yet profitable. Therefore, integrators in other markets are likely to expect increasing competition from Chinese players. However, some players in the US are starting to announce plans to construct cell manufacturing and BESS manufacturing facilities in the US to take advantage of tax credits being introduced under the US Inflation Reduction Act. Ultimately, building up of localized supply chains should help US BESS manufacturers to reduce their production costs, allowing them to provide systems at lower and more competitive costs. This IDTechEx report provides a deep dive into Li-ion BESS integrators' projects, BESS installation volumes, project pipelines, supply and strategic agreements, and insights to drivers and dynamics in grid-scale and residential BESS markets.

 

China and the US remain global leaders, responsible for a combined 71% of the 92.3 GWh of global Li-ion BESS deployments made in 2023, acting as a key reason for the 4x growth compared to global deployments made in 2021. However, other countries are expected to show strong growth over the next decade, including the UK, Italy, Germany, Australia, Italy, and Chile. Incentives and schemes such as the Capacity Investment Scheme in Australia, and Viability Gap Funding to be provided for up to 4 GWh of BESS deployment in India will be key in driving growth in these countries. This IDTechEx report provides granular analysis and discussion on various incentives, schemes and renewables and battery storage targets being announced by governments in key countries.

 

 

This IDTechEx report also provides 10-year market forecasts on the Li-ion BESS market for the period 2016 - 2035, in both capacity (GWh) and market value (US$B). Capacity forecasts are provided by both country and sector (grid-scale, C&I, and residential). Countries include China, US, the UK, Germany, Italy, Australia, India, and Chile.

 

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