การสกัดลิเธียมโดยตรง 2025-2035: เทคโนโลยี ผู้เล่น ตลาดและการคาดการณ์

The global lithium mining market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.7% between 2025 and 2035. The lithium mining industry plays a pivotal role in supporting the transition towards renewable energy and a low-carbon future. Driven by the soaring demand for Li-ion batteries for energy storage applications and electric vehicles, the demand for critical materials, such as lithium, is increasingly rapidly, necessitating swift and substantial increases in production. Alongside this rapid growth, there is a growing awareness on sustainability throughout the battery value chain. Therefore, advancements in the lithium mining sector are crucial, as they determine how lithium supply can meet the surging demand in an economically and environmentally sustainable manner.

 

This report offers a comprehensive overview of both established and emerging techniques for mining lithium from natural resources. It focuses particularly on a collection of technologies known as direct lithium extraction (DLE), which have the potential to unlock lithium from brine more efficiently, with improved recovery rates and additional environmental, social, and governance (ESG) benefits. These DLE technologies are introduced and discussed in terms of their technological advancements, market dynamics, and future outlook.

 

Lithium is mined through two methods: (i) extraction from hard rock minerals and (ii) extraction from brine resources. However, lithium production from these sources does not scale proportionately to the size of their respective reserves. Although brine resources constitute approximately 60% of global lithium reserves, they only account for about 35% of global lithium production. In contrast, hard rock mining, which has significant environmental impacts and a lower natural occurrence (around 30% of global reserves), contributes to over 60% of global lithium production. The discrepancy in lithium resources versus mined is related to the lithium extraction techniques employed on different lithium resources. Nevertheless, it suggests that there exists significant untapped potential for lithium extraction from brine.

 

Conventional brine mining relies on evaporation ponds, with the lithium extraction process spanning 12-24 months and a yield between 40-60%. The rate and yield at which lithium is produced cannot compete with the hard rock mining method. Additionally, its economic and technical feasibility is restricted to specific geographical locations that possess suitable brine resources, climatic conditions, and necessary land for pond infrastructure. Thus, conventional brine mining has struggled to compete with hard rock mining in an era with rapid growing lithium demand.

 

DLE forms an emerging class of technologies that could overcome many restrictions that conventional brine mining endures while offering additional ESG benefits. Selective lithium extraction from brines can be achieved with DLE to produce lithium more quickly and at higher yields, bypassing the need for evaporation ponds. This also enables utilization of a wider range of brine resources such as geothermal and oilfield brines across different geographical locations which could help to localize the battery supply chain. Finally, regulations on lithium mining are evolving (such as Chile's National Lithium Strategy) to incentivize extraction technologies with low environmental impacts.

 

The benefits of DLE present a compelling investment opportunity, particularly in times where lithium demand is rapidly increasing. However, there are several challenges that increase the risk profile of DLE projects. Firstly, variations in brine compositions and process conditions necessitate the development of diverse DLE technologies. Six classes of DLE technologies have evolved, with each class exhibiting a unique set of strengths and weaknesses. Given that no two brine resources are identical, there is no single universally optimal DLE solution for all brines. This variability necessitates extensive testing to identify the best investment opportunities.

 

 

Currently, the most understood and commercially proven DLE technology is adsorption DLE, which is operated in Argentina and China. This method uses aluminum-based sorbents to capture lithium and water to release lithium salts, typically lithium chloride. The process of releasing the lithium salts is known as desorption, and the solution containing the captured lithium is referred to as eluate. Ion exchange DLE is the second most developed technology, featuring companies like Lilac Solutions and Standard Lithium. This technology uses manganese or titanium-based sorbents to capture lithium and releases lithium salts (lithium chloride or lithium sulfate) by washing with an acid, such as hydrochloric acid. A significant advantage of ion exchange DLE is its ability to extract lithium from lower-grade brines (below 100 mg/L Li) and produce eluate with higher lithium concentrations (typically over 2000 mg/L) without requiring pre- or post-concentration techniques. Consequently, the need for water separation and brine concentration is lower compared to adsorption DLE. However, the use of acids poses challenges, as they must be transported to the sites if not produced on-site, and the long-term performance of ion exchange materials needs monitoring due to potential degradation and dissolution in acid. Several players, including Standard Lithium and Controlled Thermal Resources, have opted for adsorption DLE after evaluating ion exchange DLE. E3 Lithium, who developed its proprietary ion exchange technologies, announced to proceed with an unnamed third party for its first commercial plant. Confidence in ion exchange DLE may improve once the technology is commercially proven.

 

Developments in other classes of DLE have comparatively lagged. Solvent extraction DLE and membrane DLE have reached pilot and demonstration scales, while electrochemical and chemical precipitation DLE remain in laboratory development. Further research is necessary to advance these technologies. It's important to note that DLE is largely unproven without evaporation ponds and has not yet been proven on unconventional resources such as geothermal and oilfield brines. Finally, the economics and sustainability profile of DLE (including metrics such as carbon emission), needs improvement to compete with conventional brine evaporation method.

 

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the DLE sector. It covers lithium extraction and recovery technologies from brine, market activity related to DLE, and sustainability and cost considerations of DLE, benchmarked with conventional brine evaporation and hard rock mining. Additionally, the report covers lithium related regulations and incentives in Boliva, Chile, Argentina, China, USA and Europe. Several business models have evolved in the field, and DLE players can be classified into four categories, each with a unique investment approach outlined by IDTechEx. The report covers a10-year forecast period, offering detailed market predictions and trends. The global lithium mining market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.7% between 2025 and 2035, with brine (DLE) identified as the fastest-growing segment at a CAGR of 19.6%. This high growth rate in the brine (DLE) segment is expected to disrupt the brine mining market. The forecast for the brine (DLE) segment is further broken down by technology, country, and brine resource type, highlighting the distinct attributes of various DLE projects. This detailed segmentation will be of interest to a wide range of industries, including oil & gas, water treatment and desalination.

 

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