ยานพาหนะไฟฟ้า: ทางบก ทะเล และทางอากาศ 2022-2042

Electric Vehicles: Land, Sea & Air 2022-2042 is IDTechEx's comprehensive electric vehicle (EV) master report covering eight EV markets broken down with over 90 forecast lines. The scope covers all vehicle volume and platform breakdowns, including battery-electric, fuel cell and hybrid vehicle unit sales, battery demand (GWh) and market revenue generation ($ billion). The report further details emerging technology trends underpinning the transition, from silicon-anode batteries to axial-flux motors and DC fast-charging. Below we summarise findings from the key chapters of this report.

 

Electric car markets will be the largest electric vehicle markets for the next 20 years in terms of battery demand and market revenue generation. Unit sales surged in 2021 to over 6.4 million, despite a lingering chip shortage and price rises in key raw materials. The report provides a long-term market forecast on battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, hybrid and fuel cell car markets from 2022 through 2042. Growth has been consistent across all major auto markets. While China remains the largest electric vehicle market, Europe has been catching up, driven by strong emissions policy as 2021 was the first full year of the new 95g CO2 per km target. In the US, the market continues to be underpinned by Tesla, particularly with the success of the Model Y. The situation is evolving rapidly as Biden as well as traditional automakers have re-energised their electrification targets. Automakers have also announced plans to release and ramp up production of new electric pickup trucks, the most popular passenger car type, in a bid for EV leadership over the next few years. Key examples are Ford's electric F-150 and General Motors' Silverado.

 

As range becomes a key battle ground to sell EVs while battery supply chains face shortages, new powertrain advancements are coming to the forefront. The report details the rise of 800V platforms, silicon carbide (SiC) inverters, more efficient motor systems and DC fast charging capability, all key to maintaining a competitive edge whilst maximising potential for vehicle cost reduction.

 

 

Tier 1 cities in China were the first to adopt electric buses, driving rapid growth between 2012-2016, but now many of these markets are saturated. In 2018, Beijing and Shanghai had 9,368 pure electric buses constituting 55% of the combined fleet, all initially powered by a 50% purchase subsidy. The saturation of Tier 1 cities in China has caused global electric bus sales to decline for the past five years, offset only slightly by growth from Tier 2 and 3 cities in China. Today, subsidies have been greatly reduced.

 

The report finds that future growth in the near term is driven by Europe. The European electric bus market is highly fragmented and over the past few years has relied on Chinese OEMs which still accounted for a quarter of unit sales in 2021 - in fact, BYD and Yutong have consistently been market leaders since 2019. A local supply chain underpinned by European OEMs will be key, and there are signs this is beginning to happen. For example, Mercedes also emerged as a market leader in 2021 with the success of its eCitaro model.

 

 

Astute businesses are recognising that electrifying their light commercial vehicle (LCV) fleets is not only a successful mechanism by which they can demonstrate their green credentials to their customers, but is also, increasingly, a good economic decision. Today the electric LCV market is at a nascent stage, it is much smaller than the electric car market and comparatively few models have been available for purchase. The next few years will see companies conducting large pilot projects to establish that eLCVs meet their operational range, load capacity, payload and reliability requirements. As experience and trust in electric technology grows, widespread replacement of ageing diesel LCVs with eLCVs will begin. Electrification is also driven by increasing demand for freight delivery as the retail industry grows its online sales platforms, and consumers gradually abandon private car ownership for mobility as a service (MaaS) platforms. The IDTechEx report provides a detailed twenty-year outlook for the uptake of electric light commercial vehicles by powertrain - battery electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell.

 

 

Tesla, Daimler, VW and Volvo are all investing heavily in battery electric trucks. A smaller minority, Toyota, Hyundai, and Nikola, have chosen to focus their efforts on fuel cell trucks as the powertrain of the future. Despite issues with the efficiency and cost of hydrogen as a fuel, FCEV remains in the conversation as a technology for long haul trucking applications, where a greater range is required, though the viability of this technology is dependent on the production of low-cost green hydrogen.

 

Today, city trucks in China are predominantly hitting the roads, as Chinese manufacturers leverage their experience in electric buses and battery production. Given the Chinese government's strong support for the entire EV industry it is likely that this is where the most significant deployment of EV trucks will be seen in the following years.

 

As the increasing numbers of cities and nations around the world phasing out of diesel and petrol fuelled vehicles by 2030 and the cost benefit and ability of the technology to deliver the required daily duty cycles are demonstrated, the electrification of truck fleets is likely to happen rapidly. The report contains 18 forecast lines for trucks through 2042, for battery electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell trucks across medium-duty and heavy-duty variants.

 

 

Sales of electric two-wheelers have long been dominated by the approximately 25-30 million annual unit sales of low powered lead-acid battery electric two-wheelers in China, but this is a saturated market. Historic growth outside of China is driven by Europe and India, markets affected by the covid-19 pandemic in 2020 but which recovered sharply in 2021. Often, two-wheelers are the low-hanging fruit when it comes to electrification. With small batteries typically under 4kWh (compared to over 50kWh for a BEV car), they have a relatively low upfront cost to consumers and lend themselves to innovative business models such as battery swapping. The report finds that electrification of two-wheeler markets, for example of the 15 million annual motorcycle sales in India, is key to reducing pollution in countries where the car is not the dominant transportation mode.

 

 

The electric boating market has tripled since covid-19 emerged as more time away from the office has led to increased interest and free time for leisure boating. The industry also saw the first market entry from an incumbent outboard maker, Mercury Marine, which will further drive growth and promote the industry. While low power outboard categories are typically two times more expensive than petrol equivalents, from a total cost of ownership standpoint alongside other advantages (quiet, clean etc.) the business case is strong. Despite this, in higher power outboard or inboard categories, high battery prices remain a barrier, and unlike the automotive market the industry lacks governmental policy drivers, which have remained largely unchanged for a decade.

 

For larger commercial electric and hybrid vessels, since 2016 the market has started to follow an exponential trajectory as the industry is less price sensitive and maritime battery prices halved. A strong economic driver emerged in downsizing oversized engines using batteries to power peak loads in short-sea vessels such as OSVs. Ferries are the most common electric vessel as the low hanging fruit which can opportunity charge and travel shorter and consistent routes. A decline in commissioned vessels in 2021 occurred due to the long development cycles and a delayed impact from covid-19, but with a large pipeline of orders in 2022, the IDTechEx report shows growth will resume quickly. The report provides forecasts for electric leisure boats, short sea commercial vessels and deep-sea commercial vessels.

 

 

The report finds there are few strong market drivers for electric vehicles in construction when compared to on-road EV markets. Broader commitments to climate change are spurring some countries, like Norway and Holland, or companies, like Volvo, to set their own targets. Health and safety concerns like the impact of diesel particulate exhaust emissions on construction worker health and noise could be equally important drivers. Yet, much of the early electric construction vehicle development has been through retrofitting, a necessary development phase but not a sustainable strategy in the long term. OEMs need to design large EVs from scratch and manufacture at volume to realise economy of scale savings. The report forecasts that electric construction vehicles will be a market worth approximately $100 billion by 2042, made up of a low volume of high individual value vehicles. The report explains that the largest construction machine market sectors in twenty years are Mini-Excavators, Excavators and Loaders, but electrification development is initially focused on smaller compact machines (mini-excavators/compact loaders), that have comparatively short operating hours and low energy consumption. Overall, most emissions are generated by the heavy excavator segment, this is therefore an important sector to electrify. The report provides granular forecasts broken down by five vehicle types - excavators, mini excavators, backhoe loaders, mobile cranes and telescopic handlers.

 

 

From IDTechEx's review of the most promising eVTOL companies, 21 have presented timeline information about when they are looking to begin commercial eVTOL production. These timelines are highly dependent on the final flight certification process in each geographical market. As developmental projects, these timelines should be treated somewhat sceptically; a number of companies have said they are a couple of years into what they think will be a five-year certification process, however the certification standards are not yet fully in place and for many companies there are still significant technological and funding issues that will need to be addressed before a production eVTOL can be launched. Most eVTOL manufacturers are targeting 2023 for the start of commercial operations; the report provides forecasts in unit sales and battery demand through 2042.

 

 

Li-ion batteries based on graphite anodes and layered oxide cathodes (NMC, NCA) have been ubiquitous in consumer electronics for over a decade and have come to dominate large parts of electric vehicle markets. However, as they start to reach their performance limits and as environmental and supply risks are highlighted, improvements and alternatives to Li-ion batteries will become increasingly important. This report summarises trends and developments in advanced battery technologies, including to Li-ion cell designs, silicon anodes and solid-state batteries.

 

Advanced Li-ion refers to silicon and Li-metal anodes, solid-electrolytes, high-Ni cathodes as well as various cell design factors. Given the importance of the EV market, specifically battery electric cars, on determining battery demand, Li-ion is forecast to maintain its dominant position. Cathode and anode choices, cell design improvements, whether rate of energy density improvement will continue and how high energy density can go are questions addressed in this report.

 

Also discussed are pack level trends. Several different materials are required in order to assemble a battery pack, including TIMs, adhesives, gaskets, impregnation, potting, fillers and more. A general trend towards larger cell form factors and non-modular, cell-to-pack battery designs is discussed, a trend expected to reduce the number of connections, busbars, and cables between cells and modules.

 

 

In automotive power electronics (inverters, onboard chargers, DC-DC converters), key advancements are being made to improve powertrain efficiency, allowing for either battery pack capacity reduction or improved range. One of the key avenues to achieving greater efficiencies is the transition to silicon carbide MOSFETs and high voltage vehicle platforms at or above 800V. A trend which has been increasing in pace in 2021 as Renault, BYD, GM and Hyundai all announced new 800V vehicle platforms which will adopt silicon carbide MOSFETs in their power electronics through 2025. Moreover, with the Mach E release in late 2021, Ford joined the likes of Tesla (all models), BYD (Han) and Toyota (Mirai) in having an electric car model containing silicon carbide power electronics available on the market.

 

The transition is presenting fresh challenges for power module package materials, as higher switching frequencies, increased power densities and increased operational temperatures are demanded all whilst maintaining a 15-year service life. The report shows technology outlooks for 800V platform voltages and adoption of SiC inverters. It further discusses how, as the power density of semiconductor chips has been increasing exponentially over the past decade, new double-sided cooling designs, copper wirebonds and lead frames have emerged as the enabler.

 

 

Electric motors truly are the driving force behind electric vehicles (EVs). In addition to the batteries and power electronics, the electric motor is a critical component within the drivetrain. Despite electric traction motors originally being developed in the 1800s, the market is still evolving today with new designs, improving power and torque density and more considerations around the materials used. These aren't just incremental improvements either with developments such as axial flux motors and various OEMs eliminating rare-earths altogether.

 

There are several key performance metrics for electric motors. Power and torque density enables improved driving dynamics in a smaller and lighter package, with weight and space being at a premium in EVs. Another critical area is efficiency. Improving efficiency means that less of the precious energy stored in the battery is wasted when accelerating the vehicle, leading to improved range from the same battery capacity. Due to the many different considerations in motor design, the EV market has adopted several different solutions including permanent magnet, induction, and wound-rotor motors. In many cases, a combination of options may be used to give the best overall solution. Each has its own pros and cons in terms of performance but also in terms of materials costs and supply, with permanent magnet motors relying on rare earths with volatile pricing and a geographically constrained supply chain.

 

The report reveals trends around motor technology and topology, power and torque density and materials utilisation. This report addresses these trends within the markets for battery-electric cars with OEM use-cases and a technology outlook by motor type - permanent magnet (PM), induction, wound-rotor, in-wheel PM, axial-flux PM.

 

 

Managing the potential incremental energy demand that EV charging could put on the grid is crucial. Expert assessments vary on how much electricity demand will increase with widespread EV use. The US Department of Energy predicts a 38% increase in electricity consumption by 2050, mostly due to a high penetration of electric vehicles.

 

At IDTechEx, we believe the electric vehicle industry will not be derailed and will continue with its staggering momentum. Over the coming decade, demand for charging infrastructure will be driven by millions of BEV + PHEV vehicles in-use globally including passenger cars, buses, trucks, and vans. The benefits of the electric vehicle transition are at least an order of magnitude greater than charging infrastructure costs, making charging infrastructure a modest down payment to decarbonize the transport sector. The report shows historic data of public charging outlets by region and provides an outlook for AC and DC Fast Charging outlets broken down by power level.

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