Volume forecasts by electric vehicle type
IDTechEx find that pure electric car sales in 2013 will be just 70,000 vehicles rising to 2 million in 2023, versus 2 million hybrid vehicles this year rising to 7.6 million in 2023. Of course, the big unit numbers come at the small end - most of the unit volume in 2013 will be for two wheeled vehicles - 32 million vehicles in 2013 rising to 94 million in 2023, albeit at far lower average price points. The number of electric vehicles sold by type in 2013 is shown below.
Number of electric vehicles sold in 2013 by vehicle type, based on IDTechEx Research findings
Forecasts by value by electric vehicle type
If we look at the figures by the value of each sector - including industrial, marine, buses and others - we sales as below for 2013.
Value of electric vehicles sold in 2013 by vehicle type, based on IDTechEx Research findings
IDTechEx Research also find that hybrid and pure electric cars will be almost half the total value of all electric vehicles in 2023 as shown below.
Ex-factory value of EV sales in 2023, percentage by applicational sector
Cars are glamorous but are not as important as they seem
Although cars are the largest value sector, much more will be spent on other types of electric vehicle, taken together, over the coming decade. Indeed, cars will represent well under 10% of the profit made in EV manufacture in the next ten years and only 8% of the number of EVs made in 2023.
Electric vehicle trends by territory
Of the major sectors in 2023, Europe will still be the dominant market for EVs in the categories Heavy Industrial and Mobility for the Disabled. China will still be the main purchaser of e-bikes and e-buses but China, the Philippines and India will take most of the newly major category of car-like micro EV/quadricycles. On the other hand, the USA will still buy most Military EVs, so EV adoption will be far from a uniform global phenomenon even in a decade from now. And no, Toyota
will not be deposed from the top slot at any time over the coming decade. The followers are too far behind.
Electric vehicles are one business whether on- or off-road, on or underwater or in the air, from airships to robot insects, including manned and unmanned versions. This can be proved with the usual economic tests. For example, component and materials suppliers serve all these sectors and the market-leading vehicle makers all serve more than one applicational sector and many are expanding into yet more sectors.
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