Plant-based and Cultured Meat 2020-2030

In its current form, the meat industry is unsustainable. It is an inefficient way to produce food that may soon be unable to adequately feed the growing global population, which could reach 10 billion by the year 2050. Meat production is damaging to the environment too, contributing to climate change, dwindling water supplies and environmental pollution. Despite this, global meat consumption is still growing and people are eating more meat than ever. It's unlikely the global population will turn vegan. Realistic and affordable replacements for meat will be necessary before a significant shift away from the conventional meat industry is likely to happen. Could advances in agtech be the answer?

 

Artificial meat products created from plant proteins and through culture of animal cells are fast-growing areas that have generated much excitement over the last few years, with sales of plant-based meat products skyrocketing and investments surging. In its first three months after going public, Beyond Meat's share price increased by 500%, with investors and consumers inspired by its realistic meat-like products. Beyond Meat's and Impossible Foods' products are now available in fast food restaurants throughout the USA. In a recent KFC trial release in Atlanta, Beyond Meat's fried chicken analogues sold out in less than 5 hours. When Burger King released the Impossible Whopper in St. Louis, Missouri in April 2019, sales outperformed the company's national average by 18.5%, despite St. Louis being better known for barbecue than veganism. The reason for this surge in sales? Nowadays, plant-based meat is not just for vegetarians and vegans. Better product quality, perceptions of plant-based meat as a healthy alternative and megatrends towards conscious consumption are causing meat eaters to buy more and more plant-based meat alternatives.

 

Unlike plant-based meat analogues such as the Impossible Burger, cellular agriculture has the potential to produce meat products identical to those produced through animal slaughter far more efficiently at a fraction of the environmental cost. Dutch start-up Mosa Meat claims that a single cell sample can create up to 10,000 kg of cultured meat, with the production process requiring 99% less land and 96% less water than traditional livestock agriculture. Cultured cells double in number every few days, meaning that cultured meat could also be produced far quicker than conventional meat - Israeli start-up Aleph Farms claims that it can produce a batch of cultured steaks within three weeks, a much shorter timeframe than the two years it takes to grow a cow. Investors are optimistic about cultured meat (also known as "cell-based meat" or "clean meat"). Cultured meat start-ups have raised over $125 million since 2015 and investment grew by 85% between 2017 and 2018. High profile backers include Bill Gates, Richard Branson and Google co-founder Sergey Brin, who helped fund the first synthetic meat burger grown in 2013.

 

 

 

Despite the current optimism, both industries still have a long way to go before they can threaten the global meat industry. Despite rapid growth, plant-based meat still has less than 1% market share of the US meat industry and struggles to replicate meat products beyond unstructured products such as burgers, nuggets and ground beef. Plant-based meat producers have struggled with scale up and price parity with meat remains out of reach.

 

Cultured meat also faces some serious challenges with cost reduction, scale-up and regulatory approval, with no cultured meat product having yet reached the market. Despite the major the challenges the industry is facing, some cultured meat start-ups remain optimistic. Josh Tetrick, CEO of JUST, has claimed that the company's cell-based chicken nuggets have been ready for market since 2018, despite still costing around $50 per nugget, and could be released as early as late 2019, pending regulatory approval. Other companies are more conservative. Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats, has emphasised the importance of taking time to get the release right, rather than risking a PR disaster similar to that seen with genetically-modified products. Consumers are notoriously sceptical of biotechnology, especially within food, and a "frankenfoods" label could take decades to shake off.

 

This report introduces both plant-based meat substitutes and cultured meat products. It provides an in-depth discussion of the cost and technical considerations involved in producing either product, as well as insight into consumer attitudes, market drivers and restraints and an exploration of the futures of both industries. Note - "plant-based meat" refers specifically to plant-based meat analogues, i.e. plant-based substitutes designed to taste exactly like meat, rather than tofu or conventional veggie burgers.

 

• Why is the global meat industry unsustainable?

• How are plant-based and cultured meat made?

• Will plant-based meat live up to the hype?

• When will cultured meat products be on the market?

• What are the main technological hurdles in cultured meat development?

• Will consumers eat a cultured meat product?

• Who are the main players in either field?

• Where are the opportunities in the ecosystems of plant-based and cultured meat?

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