Research Articles

Given the rapid increase in forecast demand for Li-ion batteries, there has been significant growth in the number of gigafactories being planned and announced over the past 2-3 years. IDTechEx analysis shows that current plans and announcements for new cell production capacity will reach 3 TWh by 2030.

IDTechEx forecast the Li-ion market to grow to over US$430 billion by 2033, driven by demand for electric vehicles. Electric vehicles (EVs) remain the key driver behind the Li-ion market, and electric cars will be the largest market for Li-ion batteries over the next ten years.

Rapid growth in the Li-ion market is expected over the next ten years. IDTechEx forecast the Li-ion battery market will reach over US$430 billion by 2033. Electric vehicles (EV) and transportation will represent the largest market. By 2033, battery electric cars will constitute over 90% of Li-ion demand, by GWh, by 2030.

The current iteration of Li-ion batteries, which are based on graphite anodes, liquid electrolytes, and cathode materials such as NMC and LFP, are generally considered to be reaching their performance limits. However, from cell materials to battery designs, there are still several routes that can lead to further improvements in performance and cost.

Announcements of developments to alternative, next-generation, non-lithium battery chemistries, including redox flow, metal-air, or sodium-ion batteries, are now a regular occurrence. Despite interest in these alternatives, Li-ion batteries remain the dominant choice for consumer devices, electric vehicles, and stationary storage. However, the importance of non-lithium battery chemistries is expected to grow considerably over the next 10 years, especially in the stationary energy storage sector. By 2025, IDTechEx forecast that >10% of the stationary market will be accounted for by non-lithium chemistries, up from <5% in 2021.

Li-ion batteries are beginning to hit their performance ceiling, especially with regards to energy density. However, a shift in the anode materials used, namely to silicon or lithium-metal anodes, could provide a stepwise improvement to energy density. Their promise can be highlighted by looking at the high number of early-stage companies primarily developing anode materials, most being focussed on silicon, compared to other areas of Li-ion development.

Commercial interest in silicon anodes and investments into start-up companies has continued through 2021 - IDTechEx estimates that $1.9B of funding has now made its way into silicon anode start-ups. Beyond investments, there has also been greater activity regarding companies beginning to license technologies, enter into supply relationships or commercialize technologies in early adopter markets, highlighting that the promise of silicon anode technology may soon be realized.

To date, Li-ion batteries have been the go-to technology for vehicle electrification and new stationary energy storage systems. However, the supply chain for Li-ion production is coming under increasing scrutiny with bottlenecks feasible during the second half of the 2020s, creating a potential opportunity for alternative battery chemistries not reliant on lithium, cobalt, or nickel.

Energy storage technologies are undergoing a challenging transformation, vital in an emerging climate that increasingly necessitates renewable energies and recyclable hardware. Covering a wide portfolio of energy storage technologies, their history, and their outlook for the future, IDTechEx looks at how the energy storage sector has fared over the past year, and where it is headed for the next.

With the growing momentum behind the electric vehicle market comes an added importance of understanding the Li-ion batteries that power them, the variety of design choices available, and trends in their implementation.

The resilience of global electric vehicle (EV) sales during 2020 provided some optimism as to the maturing state of the electric vehicle market. However, sales are still primarily underpinned by government policy, and improvements in cost and performance to Li-ion cells and packs, not to forget other aspects of the vehicle or grid infrastructure, are needed for widespread adoption.

Limits on the amount of bioethanol and biodiesel that can be blended with conventional fossil fuels mean growth in the consumption of certain biofuels has slowed considerably over the past 5 years. However, with CO2 targets becoming increasingly stringent, and some sectors being difficult to electrify, alternative fuels are likely to still be needed over the coming years.