Research Articles

In this article, IDTechEx Research Director Dr Alex Holland takes a look at the falling battery costs and how this will affect the Li-ion battery market long term.

While there has been strong growth in the stationary battery sector, electric vehicles remain the key driver behind the Li-ion market, and electric cars will be the largest market for Li-ion batteries over the next 10 years. Although there are some regional concerns over the rate of EV adoption in 2024, sales of electric vehicles grew rapidly in 2022 and 2023, and the medium-long-term outlook for EV adoption remains strong.

Improving the performance and reducing the cost of Li-ion batteries have been primary concerns for the Li-ion battery industry over the past 10-15 years. The environmental and societal implications of Li-ion battery production and deployment have come under increasing scrutiny, along with concerns regarding supply chain concentration.

Maximizing energy density has been one key area of focus in electric vehicle battery development. Optimizations in cell and battery pack designs, alongside the use of higher nickel NMC and NCA cathodes, have led to steady improvement in battery energy density over the past 10-15 years.

IDTechEx forecast the market for lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery cells to be worth US$380 billion by 2034, driven by advancements in technology and rapidly growing demand. While Li-ion batteries have been the dominant technology for electronic devices, electric vehicles (EV), and stationary energy storage systems, alternative battery technologies and chemistries continue to garner interest.

The electrification of cars has undeniably been at the forefront of the transition towards electric vehicles (EVs) and the growth in demand for Li-ion batteries, but the electric revolution extends far beyond passenger cars. Huge opportunities exist in other transport applications, which play a vital role in ongoing decarbonization efforts.

IDTechEx forecast the Li-ion battery market for electric vehicles to reach US$380 billion by 2034. With this huge increase in value, the safe and reliable operation of these (sometimes combustible) assets while maximizing the performance extracted from them becomes critical. The battery management system (BMS) plays a central role in the safe and reliable operation of Li-ion batteries but is somewhat overlooked with regard to its potential for also moving battery performance forward.

The global market for Li-ion batteries in electric vehicles is forecast to reach over US$380 billion by 2034, driven primarily by demand for battery electric cars but with rapid growth to other sectors too, including electric vans, trucks, buses, 2-wheelers, and off-road vehicles. Electrification and emissions targets, improving battery performance, and an increasingly attractive total cost of ownership for some vehicle segments are driving this growth in demand for battery electric vehicles (EV).

There continues to be lots of excitement regarding new Li-ion anode technologies. The next generation of silicon anode materials are inching closer to commercialization with the promise of improved energy density and rate capability.

The clean hydrogen market is poised for growth, driven by decarbonization efforts and concerns around energy security. A number of ambitious targets and roadmaps are being set out by different governments and regions. Clean hydrogen can refer to a number of routes for producing hydrogen, but the primary among them are green and blue hydrogen.

IDTechEx forecast that the water electrolyzer market will grow to over US$120B by 2033. There has been renewed interest in the development of clean and green hydrogen industries.

Given the rapid increase in forecast demand for Li-ion batteries, there has been significant growth in the number of gigafactories being planned and announced over the past 2-3 years. IDTechEx analysis shows that current plans and announcements for new cell production capacity will reach 3 TWh by 2030.