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Global Solar Market Analysis and Forecast to 2024

The most comprehensive top-down and bottom-up analysis of the size of the PV market across 40 application areas, the growth potential and future drivers of demand.

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Introduction
This research report provides characterization and demand for photovoltaic products based on an annual survey of distributors, system integrators, dealers, and government agencies in over 80 countries around the world. It provides granular, quantitive and qualitive analysis of the global market demand for photovoltaic products by:
 
  • application,
  • module size,
  • incentive,
  • system price,
  • region and country (including North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Oceania)
 
The 240 page report, published annually for over thirty-five years, is designed to assist in strategic development by identifying sales volume, application splits and market trends for the multinational markets worldwide and by providing an aggregate analysis of demand by application sector.
 
Insight into local and regional market characteristics serves as a basis for tactical decisions on utilization of corporate marketing and sales resources, market focus, organizational issues such as direct sales staffing versus entry into existing selling channels, advertising and promotional materials required to address target markets, application support required, etc.
 
Through primary survey data and market analysis, the report provides a comprehensive top-down and bottom-up view of the size of the market, the growth potential for national markets and applications, and the trends to anticipate in future years.
 
The report incorporates survey data from over 80 countries to provide a comprehensive sampling of market activity in the six populated continents. The data gathered is compared with supply side data. Over 1000 installers, system integrators, manufacturers and developers have been surveyed as the basis of this report.
Forecast to 2019 for over forty application segments by country and region
A regional and country demand forecast to 2019 is provided. This is provided in terms of MWp as well as market shares which are given by over 40 application categories across five main categories of:
 
  • Remote industrial
  • Remote Habitation
  • Consumer Power
  • Grid Connected Residential, Commercial and Utility owned
  • Consumer Indoor (calculators and watches)
 
A 2024 aggregate forecast is also provided. The full application categories are:
 
Sample: Application Categories Assessed
 
 
Source: IDTechEx and SPV Market Research
Low, conservative and accelerated scenarios
Additionally, application splits are provided by region and country, along with MWp volumes and historic and forecast data using low, conservative and accelerated scenarios.
 
Sample: Historic, Current and Conservative Application Forecast for a Small Set of Applications
 
 
Source: IDTechEx and SPV Market Research
Demand by PV module size and technology, and analysis of selling channels by application
Demand by module size is provided for five ranges of module sizes ranging from <50Wp to >300 Wp.
Additionally, the report addresses the selling channels populated by technology manufacturers, module assemblers, installers, system integrators (large and small), EPC, investors and customers for the main application categories.
Regional data - existing and forecast
Historical, current and forecast regional demand and market share is provided for a wide range of regions including:
 
  • Argentina
  • Australia
  • Brazil
  • Canada
  • Chile
  • China
  • Costa Rica
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Guatemala
  • India
  • Israel
  • Italy
  • Japan
  • Mexico
  • Morocco
  • South Africa
  • Thailand
  • Turkey
  • UK
  • U.S., with overview of different U.S. states
 
Sample: Regional Application Shares
 
 
Source: IDTechEx and SPV Market Research
About IDTechEx and SPV Market Research
This research is brought to you by IDTechEx and SPV Market Research, providing the most complete picture of the PV supply market based on over 20 years of research on the sector. It accompanies research on PV markets and demand and Solar Flare, a quarterly update report. Contact us to subscribe to our PV services for the highest value and analyst-client engagement.
Analyst access from IDTechEx
All report purchases include up to 30 minutes telephone time with an expert analyst who will help you link key findings in the report to the business issues you're addressing. This needs to be used within three months of purchasing the report.
Further information
If you have any questions about this report, please do not hesitate to contact our report team at research@IDTechEx.com or call one of our sales managers:

AMERICAS (USA): +1 617 577 7890
ASIA (Japan and Korea): +81 3 3216 7209
EUROPE (UK) +44 1223 812300
1.INTRODUCTION
1.1.PURPOSE AND SCOPE
1.2.METHODOLOGY
1.3.FORMAT
2.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2.1.OVERVIEW OF PV INDUSTRY ACTIVITY 2004 THROUGH 2014
2.1.OVERVIEW OF LOW FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
2.1.DEPLOYMENT SHARES BY MARKET, 2004, 2009, 2014 & 2015
2.1.1.What to Expect Through 2017
2.1.2.Global Analysis Assumptions
2.2.APPLICATION OVERVIEW
2.2.GLOBAL FORECAST: 2013 THROUGH 2017
2.2.OVERVIEW OF CONSERVATIVE FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
2.2.1.Application Growth through 2024
2.3.REGIONAL OVERVIEW
2.3.OVERVIEW OF ACCELERATED FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
2.3.MARKET SHARES BY MODULE SIZE, 2014
2.4.MAJOR MARKET CATEGORIES AND SALES VOLUME BY CHANNEL
2.5.MAJOR APPLICATION HISTORY, GROWTH, FORECAST & CAGR RATES 2003-2024
2.6.REGIONAL APPLICATION SHARES 2014
2.7.REGIONAL FORECAST 2013 - 2017
2.8.REGIONAL ATTRACTIVENESS 2014
3.APPLICATION FORECAST: 2014-2019
3.1.HISTORICAL & CURRENT SOLAR INDUSTRY APPLICATION GROWTH
3.1.PV INDUSTRY GROWTH 1994 - 2014
3.1.GLOBAL APPLICATION SHARES 2014
3.2.OFF-GRID INDUSTRIAL, HABITATION AND CONSUMER POWER GROWTH: 2009-2014
3.2.APPLICATION TRENDS 1999-2014
3.2.APPLICATION MARKET SHARE AND GROWTH RATES
3.3.PHOTOVOLTAIC REVENUE GROWTH
3.3.GENERIC APPLICATION SEGMENTS
3.3.GRID-CONNECTED APPLICATION GROWTH: 2009-2014
3.4.OFF GRID & GRID CONNECTED APPLICATION GROWTH, 1986-2000
3.4.REGIONAL APPLICATION DEPLOYMENT, 2014*
3.4.SELLING CHANNELS
3.5.SOLAR BUSINESS MODEL OVERVIEW
3.5.REGIONAL DEMAND, INSTALLATIONS AND SHIPMENTS, 2009-2014*
3.5.OFF GRID & GRID CONNECTED APPLICATION GROWTH, 1984-2014
3.6.PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY ACTIVITY: 1976 TO 2014
3.6.REGIONAL/COUNTRY MODULE ASSEMBLY & CRYSTALLINE/THIN FILM MANUFACTURING CAPACITY*
3.6.FORECAST DEMAND VOLUME 2014 - 2019
3.7.MARKET SECTOR ANALYSIS
3.7.AGGREGATE APPLICATION GROWTH 2009-2014*
3.7.PV INDUSTRY INVENTORY, CAPACITY, PRODUCTION, SHIPMENTS, INSTALLATIONS & DEFECTIVE MODULES, 2014
3.7.1.Market Share by Application and Module Size
3.7.2.Remote Industrial Application
3.7.3.Remote Industrial: Communications and Telemetry
3.7.4.Remote Industrial: Cathodic Protection
3.7.5.Remote Industrial: Transportation Signals
3.7.6.Remote Habitation
3.7.7.Remote Habitation: Water Pumping
3.7.8.Remote Habitation: Village Power
3.7.9.Remote Habitation: Outdoor Lighting
3.7.10.Remote Habitation: Other
3.7.11.Consumer Power
3.7.12.Grid-Connected Application
3.7.13.Grid-Residential
3.7.14.Grid-Commercial
3.7.15.Grid- Utility Owned
3.7.16.Consumer Indoor
3.8.APPLICATION FORECAST TO 2024
3.8.PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULE SHIPMENTS, COSTS, ASPS, PRICE/COST DELTA
3.8.MAJOR APPLICATION HISTORY, GROWTH, FORECAST & CAGR RATES 2004-2024
3.9.THREE YEAR APPLICATION FORECAST, 2014 - 2017*
3.9.WORLDWIDE CELL/MODULE REVENUE FORECAST 2004-2019
3.10.WORLDWIDE SYSTEM & APPLICATION REVENUES, 2013 & 2014
3.10.2014 SELLING CHANNELS FOR MAJOR APPLICATIONS BY VOLUME SHARE (1) (2)
3.11.MAJOR PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATION CATEGORIES
3.11.WORLDWIDE SYSTEM & APPLICATION SHARES, 2013 & 2014
3.12.MARKET SHARES BY MODULE SIZE, 2013
3.12.PV INDUSTRY APPLICATION GROWTH* 1989-2014
3.13.CONSERVATIVE APPLICATION FORECAST, 2009-2019*
3.13.MARKET SHARES BY MODULE SIZE, 2014
3.14.REMOTE INDUSTRIAL REGIONAL MARKET SHARES, 2014
3.14.ACCELERATED APPLICATION FORECAST, 2009-2019*
3.15.APPLICATION CATEGORIES
3.15.REMOTE HABITATION REGIONAL MARKET SHARES, 2014
3.16.CONSUMER POWER REGIONAL MARKET SHARES, 2013
3.16.HISTORIC MARKET SHARE BY APPLICATION & MODULE SIZE
3.17.2014 MARKET SHARE BY APPLICATION & MODULE SIZE
3.17.GRID RESIDENTIAL, COMMERCIAL AND UTILITY REGIONAL MARKET SHARES, 2014
3.18.GRID-CONNECTED HISTORY & FORECAST, 2014-2018
3.18.COMMUNICATIONS & TELEMETRY, MWP & % OF CATEGORY 2009-2019
3.19.CATHODIC PROTECTION APPLICATIONS MWP & % OF CATEGORY, 2009-2019
3.19.GRID-RESIDENTIAL HISTORY & FORECAST, 2009-2019
3.20.GRID-COMMERCIAL HISTORY & FORECAST, 2009-2019
3.20.TRANSPORTATION SIGNALS APPLICATIONS MWP & % OF CATEGORY, 2009-2019
3.21.WATER PUMPING MWP & % OF CATEGORY, 2009-2019
3.21.GRID-COMMERCIAL OFF ROOF VERSUS ON ROOF & TRACKING VERSUS NON TRACKING
3.22.GRID-UTILITY OWNED HISTORY & FORECAST, 2009-2019
3.22.VILLAGE POWER APPLICATIONS MWP & % OF CATEGORY, 2009-2019
3.23.OUTDOOR LIGHTING APPLICATIONS MWP & % OF CATEGORY, 2009-2019
3.23.CONSUMER INDOOR REGIONAL MARKET SHARES, 2014
3.24.LONG-TERM PHOTOVOLTAIC FORECAST, MWP 2004-2024
3.24.OTHER APPLICATIONS MWP & % OF CATEGORY, 2009-2019
3.25.CONSUMER POWER APPLICATIONS MWP & % OF CATEGORY 2009-2019
3.25.PRICE HISTORY & FORECAST ALL ASP CATEGORIES, 1994-2024 (2014 CONSTANT DOLLARS)
3.26.GRID-CONNECTED APPLICATION GROWTH 1994-2014
3.27.GRID CONNECTED APPLICATIONS MWP & % OF CATEGORY, 2009-2019
3.28.SUMMARY OF END USER CONCERNS*
3.29.AVERAGE SYSTEM PRICES
3.30.RESIDENTIAL BUSINESS MODELS*
3.31.CONSUMER INDOOR MWP & % OF CATEGORY, 2009-2019
4.NORTH AMERICA: US AND CANADA
4.1.UNITED STATES
4.1.NORTH AMERICA REGIONAL FORECAST 2013 - 2017*
4.1.NORTH AMERICA MOST LIKELY FORECAST 2013-2017
4.1.1.U.S. Market Description
4.1.2.Examples of US Business Models
4.1.3.Examples of US Incentives
4.1.4.4Overview of U.S. States
4.2.CANADA
4.2.NORTH AMERICA APPLICATION SPLIT 2014
4.2.NORTH AMERICA DEMAND GROWTH* LOW, CONSERVATIVE & ACCELERATED, 2013-2017
4.3.NORTH AMERICA APPLICATION % OF TOTAL* 2012, 2013, 2014
4.3.US PV APPLICATION SHARES 2014
4.4.US PV APPLICATION CONTRIBUTION 2001-2014
4.4.US AND CANADA REGIONAL ATTRACTIVENESS 2015
4.5.US ELECTRICITY PRICES IN CENTS/KWH BY SEGMENT & REGION MID-2015
4.5.US PV COMMERCIAL APPLICATION % CONTRIBUTION BY SYSTEM SIZE, 2009-2014
4.6.US % ELECTRICITY NET GENERATION BY SECTOR (MILLION KWH) 2014
4.6.US ELECTRICITY PRICES IN CENTS/KWH BY SEGMENT & SELECT STATE MID-2015
4.7.2014 US SYSTEM METRICS
4.7.US DEMAND/SUPPLY PROFILE, 2009-2014
4.8.US SUPPLY SIDE METRICS 2015
4.8.US FORECAST BY APPLICATION SEGMENT, 2014-2019*
4.9.US STATE MARKET ATTRACTIVENESS OVERVIEW, 2015
4.9.TOP TEN US STATES FOR SOLAR DEPLOYMENT, 2014
4.10.CANADA APPLICATION SHARES, 2014
4.10.ONTARIO-HYDRO TIME OF USE RATES IN CANADIAN DOLLARS
4.11.HISTORIC ONTARIO-HYDRO RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY RATES AND Y/Y CHANGE
4.12.ONTARIO POWER AUTHORITY FIT/MICROFIT PRICE SCHEDULE AS OF JANUARY 1, 2015
4.13.ONTARIO POWER AUTHORITY FIT PRICE ADDERS
5.LATIN AMERICA
5.1.MEXICO
5.1.LATIN AMERICA REGIONAL FORECAST 2013 - 2017*
5.1.LATIN AMERICA MOST LIKELY FORECAST 2013-2017
5.2.LATIN AMERICA REGION APPLICATION SHARE 2014
5.2.LATIN AMERICA REGIONAL GROWTH, 2013-2017
5.2.CHILE
5.3.CENTRAL AMERICA
5.3.LATIN AMERICA REGIONAL APPLICATION SHARES 2014*
5.3.MEXICO APPLICATION SHARES 2014
5.4.CHILE APPLICATION SHARES 2014
5.4.LATIN AMERICA MARKET ATTRACTIVENESS OVERVIEW, 2015
5.4.SOUTH AMERICA
5.5.CARIBBEAN
5.5.CENTRAL AMERICA APPLICATION SHARES 2014
5.6.SOUTH AMERICA APPLICATION SHARES 2014
5.7.CARIBBEAN APPLICATION SHARES 2014
6.ASIA PACIFIC & OCEANIA
6.1.WEST ASIA
6.1.ASIA-PACIFIC/OCEANIA APPLICATION SHARES, 2014
6.1.ASIA PACIFIC & OCEANIA REGIONAL FORECAST 2013 - 2017*
6.1.1.India
6.2.ASIA
6.2.ASIA-PACIFIC-OCEANIA GROWTH 2013-2017 MWP
6.2.ASIA-PACIFIC/OCEANIA APPLICATION SHARES, 2014
6.2.1.China
6.2.2.Japan
6.3.SOUTHEAST ASIA
6.3.FIGURE 6.3 GLOBAL MODULE ASSEMBLY CAPACITY, 2014
6.3.ASIA-PACIFIC-OCEANIA REGIONAL APPLICATION BREAKDOWN % 2014
6.3.1.Thailand
6.4.OCEANIA
6.4.ASIA-PACIFIC-OCEANIA REGIONAL ATTRACTIVENESS 2015
6.4.EXAMPLES OF REGIONAL SHIPMENTS, 2014
6.4.1.Australia
6.5.WEST ASIA APPLICATION SHARES, 2014
6.5.INDIA COMMISSIONING STATUS OF GRID CONNECTED SOLAR VARIOUS SCHEMES
6.6.INDIA COMMISSIONING STATUS OF GRID CONNECTED SOLAR VARIOUS SCHEMES*
6.6.INDIA APPLICATION SHARES, 2014
6.7.ASIA APPLICATION SHARES 2014
6.7.INDIA COMMISSIONING STATUS OF GRID CONNECTED SOLAR PROJECTS
6.8.JAPAN FISCAL 2015 FEED IN TARIFF
6.8.JAPAN/CHINA SUPPLY/DEMAND 2009-2014
6.9.CHINA APPLICATION SHARES, 2014
6.9.THAILAND FEED IN TARIFF
6.10.AUSTRALIA SMALL SCALE TECHNOLOGY CERTIFICATE PROGRAM
6.10.JAPAN APPLICATION SHARES, 2014
6.11.SOUTH EAST ASIA APPLICATION SHARES, 2014
6.12.THAILAND APPLICATION SHARES, 2014
6.13.OCEANIA APPLICATION SHARES, 2014
6.14.AUSTRALIA APPLICATION SHARES, 2014
7.EUROPE
7.1.EUROPE GENERAL OVERVIEW
7.1.EUROPE SHIPMENTS AND DEMAND GROWTH 2004-2014
7.1.EUROPE REGIONAL FORECAST 2013 - 2017
7.2.EUROPE GROWTH 2013-2017 MWP
7.2.EUROPE MOST LIKELY FORECAST 2015-2017
7.2.SUMMARIES OF GREECE, FRANCE, SPAIN AND ITALY
7.3.GERMANY
7.3.EUROPE APPLICATION SHARES 2014
7.3.EUROPE APPLICATION SHARES 2013
7.4.EUROPE ATTRACTIVENESS 2015
7.4.GERMANY APPLICATION SHARES 2014
7.4.UK
7.5.UK APPLICATION SHARES 2014
7.5.GERMANY MARKET PREMIUM FIT
7.6.GERMANY FIXED FIT
7.7.UK SOLAR FIT RATES PART 1
7.8.UK SOLAR FIT RATES PART 2
8.AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST
8.1.AFRICA
8.1.1.Republic of South Africa
9.MIDDLE EAST
9.1.AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST REGIONAL FORECAST 2013 - 2017
9.1.AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST MOST LIKELY FORECAST 2015-2017
9.1.1.Israel
9.1.2.Turkey
9.2.AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST APPLICATION SHARES 2014
9.2.AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST APPLICATION SHARES, 2014
9.3.AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST REGIONAL GROWTH 2013-2017
9.3.AFRICA APPLICATION SHARES 2014
9.4.REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA APPLICATION SHARES 2014
9.4.AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST SELECT MARKET ATTRACTIVENESS 2015
9.5.MIDDLE EAST APPLICATION SHARES 2014
9.6.ISRAEL APPLICATION SHARES 2014
9.7.TURKEY APPLICATION SHARES 2014
TABLES
FIGURES
 

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Figures 71
 

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