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ชุดเครื่องกำเนิดไฟฟ้าดีเซลการพัฒนาในอนาคตและเทคโนโลยีทางเลือก 2019-2029


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The use of diesel generator sets (gensets) has proliferated over the past decade as the primary choice for reliable mobile, stationary or temporary on-site power. Tightening emissions regulations, environmental concerns and plummeting renewable energy costs are putting increased pressure on the diesel genset industry. As manufacturers and suppliers of generator sets look to adapt to a changing energy system, there are a range of key technology developments that will play a crucial role in shaping future use.
The report provides an anatomy of the global diesel genset market, looking at key challenges surrounding genset components including exhaust aftertreatment technologies, engine control systems, load management and battery integration. Different genset operational modes and their use in a number of industries is examined in depth, looking at how future market developments will vary according to application. Due to cheap natural gas supply and lower emissions, alternative fuel gensets are on the rise and the report details the technical and market considerations and insight into both gas and dual-fuel gensets. Over 15 of the leading global genset manufacturers and suppliers are profiled and those with the most future proof strategies are dissected. A patent analysis chapter looks at the genset patent landscape, showing the most active patent assignees, key patent technology areas, patent trends that have evolved over time and some of the most significant IP of recent years.
Alternative renewable energy technologies, both with and without battery storage, including solar, wind, fuel cell, wave and tidal generation are covered in detail. The report evaluates the key characteristics of each technology, including case studies and future developments in the context of generator sets. Hybrid diesel/renewable/storage systems, often in a minigrid context, is identified as an area that will have an increasingly significant influence on future genset use. A hybrid component and system level analysis is presented, looking at design and management considerations relating to the integration of a genset with renewable energy and/or energy storage technologies as well as the most suitable business models and financing options available. Containerized hybrid systems and the potential value benefits that they can offer is also covered.
The report includes ten year market forecasts for diesel generator sets, natural gas and alternative technology market values both globally and regionally. The forecasts are considered against key global megatrends and market drivers to provide valuable insight into future industry direction allowing the reader to understand the short-, medium- and long-term market sizes for each technology. IDTechEx forecasts are built up through a combination of detailed technical know-how, our long standing engagement with the technology community and our in-depth understanding of end-use markets. Cost projections are based upon our in-house bottom-up cost models.
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Table of Contents
1.1.Diesel generator hybridisation presents the greatest potential
1.2.A changing landscape
1.3.Global generator set market forecast ($bn) 2019-2029
1.4.Forecast analysis
1.5.Alternative technologies forecast ($bn) 2019-2029
1.6.Alternative technology forecast analysis
1.7.Alternative technology comparison
1.8.Power generating technology approximate scalability comparison
2.1.News from 2018
2.2.Anatomy of a diesel generator set
2.3.Typical cost breakdown of a generator set system
2.4.Diesel generator set basics
2.5.Diesel generator set operational modes
2.6.Diesel genset market
2.9.Fuel injection
2.10.Diesel particulate filters (DPF)
2.11.Selective catalytic reduction (SCR)
2.12.Diesel oxidation catalysts (DOC)
2.14.Combined aftertreatment system
2.15.Diesel aftertreatment technologies can be expensive
2.16.Control systems
2.17.Diesel technology timeline
2.18.The advantages and limitations of a diesel generator set
2.19.Why does the future of diesel generator sets matter?
3.1.Values benefits of diesel generator sets
3.3.Telecoms changing business models
3.6.Mining industry diesel use
3.7.Alternative technologies
3.8.Factors driving change in the mining industry
3.9.Global mining sites with 1MW+ solar or wind
3.10.Oil & gas
3.11.Diesel use in the oil & gas industry
3.13.Irrigation pumps in agriculture
3.15.Solar irrigation system design
3.17.India leading the way
3.18.Solar irrigation pumps in India
3.20.Data centres
3.21.Data centre current power demand
3.22.Data centre future power demand
3.23.The importance of a reliable data centre power supply
3.25.Challenges of military diesel consumption
3.26.Utility diesel use
3.27.Diesel generator value benefit to utilities
3.28.Other industries; maritime, desalination, aquaculture, hospitals
4.1.A note on LCOE
4.2.Alternative fuel generator sets
4.3.Gas fuel types
4.4.Natural gas vs diesel
4.5.Natural gas generator set fuel efficiency
4.8.Liquid nitrogen / liquid air
4.9.Replacing diesel generators in transport refrigeration
4.10.Global generator set market share by fuel type 2017
4.12.Solar vs diesel cost analysis
4.13.Future PV module price prediction
4.14.Anatomy of a solar + battery system
4.15.Power electronics
4.16.Impact on renewable energy systems
4.17.Main PV options beyond silicon
4.18.Research-cell efficiencies of different solar technologies
4.19.Metrics comparison of different PV technologies
4.20.Which new solar technologies and characteristics will contribute to generator set replacement?
4.21.Technology development roadmap of alternative PV technologies
4.22.Mobile solar market penetration; small scale
4.23.Mobile solar market penetration; small-to-medium scale
4.24.Mobile market penetration; larger scale
4.26.PV key points
4.28.Wind Energy Characteristics
4.29.Wind does not downscale well
4.30.Horizontal vs vertical axis
4.31.Wind + storage
4.32.How to capture the strongest winds
4.33.Airborne Wind Energy (AWE)
4.34.Why AWE may be better than a conventional wind turbine
4.35.Main Airborne Wind Energy options taken seriously
4.37.Wind energy key points
4.38.Ocean power
4.39.Wave Power
4.40.Wave power key technologies
4.41.Wave power is already reducing island diesel generator dependence
4.42.Tidal power
4.43.Choice of open air and water turbines
4.44.Ocean power characteristics
4.45.Ocean power key points
4.46.Fuel Cells
4.47.Fuel Cell Challenges
4.48.Fuel Cell Characteristics
4.49.Fuel Cell Technologies
4.50.Fuel Cells - ammonia to have big impact for off-grid
4.51.Fuel cell key points
4.52.Alternative technology comparison
4.53.Power generating technology approximate scalability comparison
5.1.Energy storage
5.2.The increasingly important role of stationary storage
5.3.Performance comparison of energy storage technologies
5.4.The battery trilemma
5.5.Li-ion batteries
5.6.Battery storage cost reductions
5.7.Redox flow batteries
5.8.Other storage technologies
5.9.Scope for battery elimination
5.11.Vehicle Integration
5.12.The importance of hybrid systems
5.13.Rental business models are key
5.14.Hybridization of a genset system
5.15.Diesel + storage
5.16.Diesel + storage system design
5.17.Diesel + battery storage system operating mode
5.18.Diesel + battery storage commercial example
5.19.Solar/wind + diesel
5.20.Cost efficient solar/wind + diesel
5.21.Solar + diesel system design
5.22.Solar + diesel system components
5.23.Solar + diesel system operating conditions
5.24.Solar + diesel + storage system design
5.25.Solar + diesel case study
5.26.Battery suitability
5.27.Hybrid system operational scenarios case study
5.28.Hybrid system scenarios case study analysis
5.29.Hybrid system scenarios case study savings
5.30.Typical hybrid system savings
5.31.The key players recognise hybridisation is coming
5.32.Those that embrace hybridisation will be the first to benefit from it
5.33.Hybrid micro/mini grids
5.34.Off-grid categories
5.35.Hybrid micro/mini grids advantages
5.36.Third party or mixed ownership and financing
5.37.Hybrid microgrid system design
5.38.ABB containerized microgrid
5.39.Schneider Electric portable microgrid
5.40.GE renewable hybrid power solution
5.41.Hybrid microgrid island case study
5.42.Hybrid microgrid commercial & industrial case study
5.43.Microgrid-as-a-service case study
5.44.Hybrid system key points
6.1.Global Megatrends
6.2.Population growth
6.3.Economic growth
6.4.GDP growth
6.5.Climate Change
6.7.Global power demand
6.8.Market Drivers
6.9.Commodity prices
6.10.Fuel Economy
6.11.A changing energy system
6.13.Regulatory timeline
6.14.Emissions reductions
6.15.Environmental awareness
6.16.Conflicting market drivers and restraints
7.1.Generator set patent analysis
7.2.Generator set patent landscape overview
7.3.Generator set patent assignee analysis
7.4.Aftertreatment technology patent analysis
7.5.Aftertreatment technology patent assignee analysis
7.6.Hybrid system patent analysis
7.7.Caterpillar - recent key patent analysis
7.8.Cummins - recent key patent analysis
8.1.Global generator set market forecast ($bn) 2019-2029
8.2.Diesel and gas generator set market forecast ($bn) 2019-2029
8.3.Generator set rental market forecast 2018
8.4.Forecast assumptions & analysis
8.5.Diesel generator set market forecast by region ($bn) 2019-2029
8.6.Regional forecast analysis
8.7.Decline in Africa despite increased power demand
8.8.Generator set alternatives forecast ($bn) 2019-2029
8.9.Alternative technologies forecast ($bn) 2019-2029
8.10.Alternative technology forecast analysis
9.1.Generator sets:
9.1.3.Atlas Copco
9.1.7.FG Wilson
9.1.9.GE Power
9.1.13.Mahindra Powerol
9.1.14.Mistubishi Heavy Industries
9.1.15.MTU Onsite Power
9.3.2.Alta Devices
9.3.4.Fraunhofer ISE
9.3.6.Oxford Photovoltaics
9.4.Fuel Cell
9.5.Ocean Power
9.5.1.Carnegie Wave Energy
9.5.2.Corpower Ocean
9.5.3.Eco Wave Power
9.5.5.Wello Sweden
9.6.3.Kite power Systems
9.7.Energy Storage
9.7.1.AES Energy Storage
9.7.3.Primus Power
9.7.7.UniEnergy Technologies
10.1.Exec Summary:
10.1.1.Global generator set market forecast ($bn) 2019 - 2029
10.1.2.Alternative technologies forecast ($bn) 2019-2029
10.1.3.Alternative technology performance comparison
10.1.4.Alternative technology scalability comparison
10.2.Current state of play and future developments:
10.2.1.Anatomy of a diesel generator set
10.2.2.Typical cost breakdown of a generator set system
10.2.3.Diesel genset market structure overview
10.2.4.Emission compositions
10.2.5.Diesel particulate filters
10.2.6.Selective catalytic reduction
10.2.7.Diesel oxidation catalysts
10.2.8.Combined aftertreatment system
10.2.9.Cost analysis of aftertreatment technologies
10.2.10.Diesel technology development timeline
10.2.11.Advantages and limitations of a diesel generator set
10.2.12.Global carbon footprint of diesel combustion
10.2.13.Global air pollution deaths
10.3.1.Value benefits of diesel generator sets
10.3.2.Global off grid telecoms towers
10.3.3.Global telecom towers ownership models
10.3.4.Comparison of solar and/or battery cost compared to diesel generator at a telecom base station
10.3.5.Renewable energy installations at global mining sites
10.3.6.Solar irrigation system design
10.3.7.Solar irrigation pumps in India
10.3.8.Data centre future power demand
10.3.9.The importance of a reliable data centre power supply
10.3.10.Image of a military diesel power station
10.3.11.Diesel generator value benefit to utilities
10.4.Diesel generator alternative technologies:
10.4.1.Levelised cost of electricity comparison
10.4.2.Generator set gas fuel types
10.4.3.Diesel vs gas fueled generators, cost and carbon comparison
10.4.4.Combined heat and power generator set
10.4.5.Liquid nitrogen fueled generator set
10.4.6.Liquid nitrogen fueled generator set for transport refrigeration
10.4.7.Global generator set market share by fuel type 2017
10.4.8.Solar vs diesel genset performance comparison table
10.4.9.Solar vs diesel cost analysis
10.4.10.Future PV module price prediction
10.4.11.Anatomy of a solar + battery system
10.4.12.Power electronics performance comparison
10.4.13.Power electronics system cost comparison
10.4.14.Research cell efficiencies of different solar technologies
10.4.15.Metrics comparison of different solar technologies
10.4.16.Technology development roadmap of alternative PV technologies
10.4.17.Mobile solar market penetration; small scale
10.4.18.Mobile solar market penetration; small-to-medium scale
10.4.19.Mobile solar market penetration; larger scale
10.4.20.Floating photovoltaics
10.4.21.Wind power vs diesel genset performance comparison table
10.4.22.Horizontal vs vertical wind turbines
10.4.23.Evolution of wind turbine heights and output
10.4.24.Airborne wind energy generation profile
10.4.25.Airborne wind energy technology options
10.4.26.Airborne wind example
10.4.27.Wave power technology comparison
10.4.28.Wave power example
10.4.29.Choice of tidal turbines
10.4.30.Wave & tidal power vs diesel genset performance comparison table
10.4.31.Map of where ocean power is both strongest and closest to population
10.4.32.Fuel cell operational design
10.4.33.Fuel cell vs diesel genset performance comparison table
10.4.34.Different fuel cell technology comparison table
10.4.35.Alternative technology performance comparison table
10.4.36.Alternative technology scalability comparison
10.5.Hybrid Systems
10.5.1.Application comparison of energy storage technologies
10.5.2.Performance comparison of energy storage technologies
10.5.3.The battery trilemma
10.5.4.Li-ion battery price forecast
10.5.5.Energy storage technology power and energy comparison
10.5.6.Flywheel system design
10.5.7.Hybrid system components
10.5.8.Hybrid system applications
10.5.9.Rental business models
10.5.10.Hybridization of a genset system
10.5.11.Diesel + battery storage system operating mode 1
10.5.12.Diesel + battery storage system operating mode 2
10.5.13.Diesel + battery storage system operating mode 3
10.5.14.Diesel + battery storage commercial example
10.5.15.Solar and wind life cycle costs
10.5.16.Solar + diesel system components
10.5.17.Solar + diesel operating conditions
10.5.18.Solar + diesel case study
10.5.19.Battery suitability comparison
10.5.20.Hybrid system operational scenarios case study
10.5.21.Hybrid system operational scenarios cost efficiency comparison
10.5.22.Typical hybrid system savings
10.5.23.Key players embracing hybridisation
10.5.24.Hybrid system business model benefits
10.5.25.Off grid categories; pico, micro, minigrid
10.5.26.Changing ownership and financing
10.5.27.Hybrid microgrid system design
10.5.28.ABB containerized microgrid
10.5.29.Schneider Electric portable microgrid
10.5.30.GE renewable hybrid power solution
10.5.31.Hybrid minigrid island case study
10.5.32.Hybrid minigrid commercial & industrial case study
10.5.33.Microgrid-as-a-service case study
10.5.34.Hybrid system key points
10.6.Market analysis
10.6.1.Global megratrends
10.6.2.Global population growth
10.6.3.Urbanisation factors
10.6.4.Global power demand
10.6.5.Market drivers
10.6.6.Commodity price correlation with genset market
10.6.7.Fuel economy correlation with genset market
10.6.8.Changing energy system factors
10.6.9.Regulatory timeline for diesel emissions
10.6.10.Change in emission reductions over time
10.6.11.Conflicting market drivers and constraints
10.7.Patent analysis
10.7.1.Generator set patents by fuel type
10.7.2.Generator set patents by patent family classification
10.7.3.Generator set patents by assignee
10.7.4.Aftertreatment technology patent analysis
10.7.5.Aftertreatment technology patents by assignee
10.7.6.Hybrid systems patent analysis
10.7.7.Caterpillar recent key patent analysis
10.7.8.Cummins recent key patent analysis
10.8.Market forecasts
10.8.1.Global generator set market forecast ($bn) 2019-2029
10.8.2.Diesel and gas generator set market forecast ($bn) 2019-2029
10.8.3.Generator set rental market forecast 2018
10.8.4.Diesel generator set market forecast by region ($bn) 2019 - 2029
10.8.5.Decline in Africa despite increased power demand
10.8.6.Generator set alternatives forecast ($bn) 2019-2029
10.8.7.Alternative technologies forecast ($bn) 2019-2029

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