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ディーゼル発電機セットの将来展望と代替技術 2019-2029年
ゼロ・エミッション代替技術および市場という観点でのディーゼルおよび天然ガス発電セット
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ディーゼル発電機の将来の役割、その使用が増え続けるか、再生可能エネルギー技術に置き換えられるかについての洞察を提供します。利用可能な代替の再生可能エネルギー生成および貯蔵技術の完全な分析を提供します。
The use of diesel generator sets (gensets) has proliferated over the past decade as the primary choice for reliable mobile, stationary or temporary on-site power. Tightening emissions regulations, environmental concerns and plummeting renewable energy costs are putting increased pressure on the diesel genset industry. As manufacturers and suppliers of generator sets look to adapt to a changing energy system, there are a range of key technology developments that will play a crucial role in shaping future use.
The report provides an anatomy of the global diesel genset market, looking at key challenges surrounding genset components including exhaust aftertreatment technologies, engine control systems, load management and battery integration. Different genset operational modes and their use in a number of industries is examined in depth, looking at how future market developments will vary according to application. Due to cheap natural gas supply and lower emissions, alternative fuel gensets are on the rise and the report details the technical and market considerations and insight into both gas and dual-fuel gensets. Over 15 of the leading global genset manufacturers and suppliers are profiled and those with the most future proof strategies are dissected. A patent analysis chapter looks at the genset patent landscape, showing the most active patent assignees, key patent technology areas, patent trends that have evolved over time and some of the most significant IP of recent years.
Alternative renewable energy technologies, both with and without battery storage, including solar, wind, fuel cell, wave and tidal generation are covered in detail. The report evaluates the key characteristics of each technology, including case studies and future developments in the context of generator sets. Hybrid diesel/renewable/storage systems, often in a minigrid context, is identified as an area that will have an increasingly significant influence on future genset use. A hybrid component and system level analysis is presented, looking at design and management considerations relating to the integration of a genset with renewable energy and/or energy storage technologies as well as the most suitable business models and financing options available. Containerized hybrid systems and the potential value benefits that they can offer is also covered.
The report includes ten year market forecasts for diesel generator sets, natural gas and alternative technology market values both globally and regionally. The forecasts are considered against key global megatrends and market drivers to provide valuable insight into future industry direction allowing the reader to understand the short-, medium- and long-term market sizes for each technology. IDTechEx forecasts are built up through a combination of detailed technical know-how, our long standing engagement with the technology community and our in-depth understanding of end-use markets. Cost projections are based upon our in-house bottom-up cost models.
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担当: 村越美和子 m.murakoshi@idtechex.com
| 1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
| 1.1. | Diesel generator hybridisation presents the greatest potential |
| 1.2. | A changing landscape |
| 1.3. | Global generator set market forecast ($bn) 2019-2029 |
| 1.4. | Forecast analysis |
| 1.5. | Alternative technologies forecast ($bn) 2019-2029 |
| 1.6. | Alternative technology forecast analysis |
| 1.7. | Alternative technology comparison |
| 1.8. | Power generating technology approximate scalability comparison |
| 2. | CURRENT STATE OF PLAY AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS |
| 2.1. | News from 2018 |
| 2.2. | Anatomy of a diesel generator set |
| 2.3. | Typical cost breakdown of a generator set system |
| 2.4. | Diesel generator set basics |
| 2.5. | Diesel generator set operational modes |
| 2.6. | Diesel genset market |
| 2.7. | Emissions |
| 2.8. | Pollutants |
| 2.9. | Fuel injection |
| 2.10. | Diesel particulate filters (DPF) |
| 2.11. | Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) |
| 2.12. | Diesel oxidation catalysts (DOC) |
| 2.13. | 'Dieselgate' |
| 2.14. | Combined aftertreatment system |
| 2.15. | Diesel aftertreatment technologies can be expensive |
| 2.16. | Control systems |
| 2.17. | Diesel technology timeline |
| 2.18. | The advantages and limitations of a diesel generator set |
| 2.19. | Why does the future of diesel generator sets matter? |
| 3. | APPLICATIONS |
| 3.1. | Values benefits of diesel generator sets |
| 3.2. | Telecoms |
| 3.3. | Telecoms changing business models |
| 3.4. | Telecoms |
| 3.5. | Mining |
| 3.6. | Mining industry diesel use |
| 3.7. | Alternative technologies |
| 3.8. | Factors driving change in the mining industry |
| 3.9. | Global mining sites with 1MW+ solar or wind |
| 3.10. | Oil & gas |
| 3.11. | Diesel use in the oil & gas industry |
| 3.12. | Agriculture |
| 3.13. | Irrigation pumps in agriculture |
| 3.14. | Technologies |
| 3.15. | Solar irrigation system design |
| 3.16. | Cost-benefit |
| 3.17. | India leading the way |
| 3.18. | Solar irrigation pumps in India |
| 3.19. | Construction |
| 3.20. | Data centres |
| 3.21. | Data centre current power demand |
| 3.22. | Data centre future power demand |
| 3.23. | The importance of a reliable data centre power supply |
| 3.24. | Military |
| 3.25. | Challenges of military diesel consumption |
| 3.26. | Utility diesel use |
| 3.27. | Diesel generator value benefit to utilities |
| 3.28. | Other industries; maritime, desalination, aquaculture, hospitals |
| 4. | DIESEL GENERATOR ALTERNATIVE TECHNOLOGIES |
| 4.1. | A note on LCOE |
| 4.2. | Alternative fuel generator sets |
| 4.3. | Gas fuel types |
| 4.4. | Natural gas vs diesel |
| 4.5. | Natural gas generator set fuel efficiency |
| 4.6. | Biodiesel |
| 4.7. | CHP |
| 4.8. | Liquid nitrogen / liquid air |
| 4.9. | Replacing diesel generators in transport refrigeration |
| 4.10. | Global generator set market share by fuel type 2017 |
| 4.11. | Solar |
| 4.12. | Solar vs diesel cost analysis |
| 4.13. | Future PV module price prediction |
| 4.14. | Anatomy of a solar + battery system |
| 4.15. | Power electronics |
| 4.16. | Impact on renewable energy systems |
| 4.17. | Main PV options beyond silicon |
| 4.18. | Research-cell efficiencies of different solar technologies |
| 4.19. | Metrics comparison of different PV technologies |
| 4.20. | Which new solar technologies and characteristics will contribute to generator set replacement? |
| 4.21. | Technology development roadmap of alternative PV technologies |
| 4.22. | Mobile solar market penetration; small scale |
| 4.23. | Mobile solar market penetration; small-to-medium scale |
| 4.24. | Mobile market penetration; larger scale |
| 4.25. | Floatovoltaics |
| 4.26. | PV key points |
| 4.27. | Wind |
| 4.28. | Wind Energy Characteristics |
| 4.29. | Wind does not downscale well |
| 4.30. | Horizontal vs vertical axis |
| 4.31. | Wind + storage |
| 4.32. | How to capture the strongest winds |
| 4.33. | Airborne Wind Energy (AWE) |
| 4.34. | Why AWE may be better than a conventional wind turbine |
| 4.35. | Main Airborne Wind Energy options taken seriously |
| 4.36. | Makani-x |
| 4.37. | Wind energy key points |
| 4.38. | Ocean power |
| 4.39. | Wave Power |
| 4.40. | Wave power key technologies |
| 4.41. | Wave power is already reducing island diesel generator dependence |
| 4.42. | Tidal power |
| 4.43. | Choice of open air and water turbines |
| 4.44. | Ocean power characteristics |
| 4.45. | Ocean power key points |
| 4.46. | Fuel Cells |
| 4.47. | Fuel Cell Challenges |
| 4.48. | Fuel Cell Characteristics |
| 4.49. | Fuel Cell Technologies |
| 4.50. | Fuel Cells - ammonia to have big impact for off-grid |
| 4.51. | Fuel cell key points |
| 4.52. | Alternative technology comparison |
| 4.53. | Power generating technology approximate scalability comparison |
| 5. | HYBRID SYSTEMS |
| 5.1. | Energy storage |
| 5.2. | The increasingly important role of stationary storage |
| 5.3. | Performance comparison of energy storage technologies |
| 5.4. | The battery trilemma |
| 5.5. | Li-ion batteries |
| 5.6. | Battery storage cost reductions |
| 5.7. | Redox flow batteries |
| 5.8. | Other storage technologies |
| 5.9. | Scope for battery elimination |
| 5.10. | Flywheels |
| 5.11. | Vehicle Integration |
| 5.12. | The importance of hybrid systems |
| 5.13. | Rental business models are key |
| 5.14. | Hybridization of a genset system |
| 5.15. | Diesel + storage |
| 5.16. | Diesel + storage system design |
| 5.17. | Diesel + battery storage system operating mode |
| 5.18. | Diesel + battery storage commercial example |
| 5.19. | Solar/wind + diesel |
| 5.20. | Cost efficient solar/wind + diesel |
| 5.21. | Solar + diesel system design |
| 5.22. | Solar + diesel system components |
| 5.23. | Solar + diesel system operating conditions |
| 5.24. | Solar + diesel + storage system design |
| 5.25. | Solar + diesel case study |
| 5.26. | Battery suitability |
| 5.27. | Hybrid system operational scenarios case study |
| 5.28. | Hybrid system scenarios case study analysis |
| 5.29. | Hybrid system scenarios case study savings |
| 5.30. | Typical hybrid system savings |
| 5.31. | The key players recognise hybridisation is coming |
| 5.32. | Those that embrace hybridisation will be the first to benefit from it |
| 5.33. | Hybrid micro/mini grids |
| 5.34. | Off-grid categories |
| 5.35. | Hybrid micro/mini grids advantages |
| 5.36. | Third party or mixed ownership and financing |
| 5.37. | Hybrid microgrid system design |
| 5.38. | ABB containerized microgrid |
| 5.39. | Schneider Electric portable microgrid |
| 5.40. | GE renewable hybrid power solution |
| 5.41. | Hybrid microgrid island case study |
| 5.42. | Hybrid microgrid commercial & industrial case study |
| 5.43. | Microgrid-as-a-service case study |
| 5.44. | Hybrid system key points |
| 6. | MARKET ANALYSIS |
| 6.1. | Global Megatrends |
| 6.2. | Population growth |
| 6.3. | Economic growth |
| 6.4. | GDP growth |
| 6.5. | Climate Change |
| 6.6. | Urbanisation |
| 6.7. | Global power demand |
| 6.8. | Market Drivers |
| 6.9. | Commodity prices |
| 6.10. | Fuel Economy |
| 6.11. | A changing energy system |
| 6.12. | Regulations |
| 6.13. | Regulatory timeline |
| 6.14. | Emissions reductions |
| 6.15. | Environmental awareness |
| 6.16. | Conflicting market drivers and restraints |
| 7. | PATENT ANALYSIS |
| 7.1. | Generator set patent analysis |
| 7.2. | Generator set patent landscape overview |
| 7.3. | Generator set patent assignee analysis |
| 7.4. | Aftertreatment technology patent analysis |
| 7.5. | Aftertreatment technology patent assignee analysis |
| 7.6. | Hybrid system patent analysis |
| 7.7. | Caterpillar - recent key patent analysis |
| 7.8. | Cummins - recent key patent analysis |
| 8. | MARKET FORECASTS |
| 8.1. | Global generator set market forecast ($bn) 2019-2029 |
| 8.2. | Diesel and gas generator set market forecast ($bn) 2019-2029 |
| 8.3. | Generator set rental market forecast 2018 |
| 8.4. | Forecast assumptions & analysis |
| 8.5. | Diesel generator set market forecast by region ($bn) 2019-2029 |
| 8.6. | Regional forecast analysis |
| 8.7. | Decline in Africa despite increased power demand |
| 8.8. | Generator set alternatives forecast ($bn) 2019-2029 |
| 8.9. | Alternative technologies forecast ($bn) 2019-2029 |
| 8.10. | Alternative technology forecast analysis |
| 9. | COMPANY PROFILES |
| 9.1. | Generator sets: |
| 9.1.1. | ABB |
| 9.1.2. | Aggreko |
| 9.1.3. | Atlas Copco |
| 9.1.4. | Caterpillar |
| 9.1.5. | Cummins |
| 9.1.6. | Dearman |
| 9.1.7. | FG Wilson |
| 9.1.8. | Generac |
| 9.1.9. | GE Power |
| 9.1.10. | Himoinsa |
| 9.1.11. | JCB |
| 9.1.12. | Kohler |
| 9.1.13. | Mahindra Powerol |
| 9.1.14. | Mistubishi Heavy Industries |
| 9.1.15. | MTU Onsite Power |
| 9.1.16. | Wartsila |
| 9.2. | Alternatives: |
| 9.3. | PV |
| 9.3.1. | 5B |
| 9.3.2. | Alta Devices |
| 9.3.3. | ECLIPS |
| 9.3.4. | Fraunhofer ISE |
| 9.3.5. | Heliatek |
| 9.3.6. | Oxford Photovoltaics |
| 9.3.7. | PWRstation |
| 9.3.8. | Renovagen |
| 9.4. | Fuel Cell |
| 9.4.1. | Ballard |
| 9.4.2. | Gencell |
| 9.4.3. | Hydrogenics |
| 9.5. | Ocean Power |
| 9.5.1. | Carnegie Wave Energy |
| 9.5.2. | Corpower Ocean |
| 9.5.3. | Eco Wave Power |
| 9.5.4. | Seabased |
| 9.5.5. | Wello Sweden |
| 9.6. | Wind |
| 9.6.1. | Ampyx |
| 9.6.2. | Inergys |
| 9.6.3. | Kite power Systems |
| 9.6.4. | Makani |
| 9.6.5. | TwingTec |
| 9.6.6. | Windlift |
| 9.7. | Energy Storage |
| 9.7.1. | AES Energy Storage |
| 9.7.2. | Faradion |
| 9.7.3. | Primus Power |
| 9.7.4. | RedT |
| 9.7.5. | SonnenBatteries |
| 9.7.6. | Tesla |
| 9.7.7. | UniEnergy Technologies |
| 10. | FIGURES: |
| 10.1. | Exec Summary: |
| 10.1.1. | Global generator set market forecast ($bn) 2019 - 2029 |
| 10.1.2. | Alternative technologies forecast ($bn) 2019-2029 |
| 10.1.3. | Alternative technology performance comparison |
| 10.1.4. | Alternative technology scalability comparison |
| 10.2. | Current state of play and future developments: |
| 10.2.1. | Anatomy of a diesel generator set |
| 10.2.2. | Typical cost breakdown of a generator set system |
| 10.2.3. | Diesel genset market structure overview |
| 10.2.4. | Emission compositions |
| 10.2.5. | Diesel particulate filters |
| 10.2.6. | Selective catalytic reduction |
| 10.2.7. | Diesel oxidation catalysts |
| 10.2.8. | Combined aftertreatment system |
| 10.2.9. | Cost analysis of aftertreatment technologies |
| 10.2.10. | Diesel technology development timeline |
| 10.2.11. | Advantages and limitations of a diesel generator set |
| 10.2.12. | Global carbon footprint of diesel combustion |
| 10.2.13. | Global air pollution deaths |
| 10.3. | Applications: |
| 10.3.1. | Value benefits of diesel generator sets |
| 10.3.2. | Global off grid telecoms towers |
| 10.3.3. | Global telecom towers ownership models |
| 10.3.4. | Comparison of solar and/or battery cost compared to diesel generator at a telecom base station |
| 10.3.5. | Renewable energy installations at global mining sites |
| 10.3.6. | Solar irrigation system design |
| 10.3.7. | Solar irrigation pumps in India |
| 10.3.8. | Data centre future power demand |
| 10.3.9. | The importance of a reliable data centre power supply |
| 10.3.10. | Image of a military diesel power station |
| 10.3.11. | Diesel generator value benefit to utilities |
| 10.4. | Diesel generator alternative technologies: |
| 10.4.1. | Levelised cost of electricity comparison |
| 10.4.2. | Generator set gas fuel types |
| 10.4.3. | Diesel vs gas fueled generators, cost and carbon comparison |
| 10.4.4. | Combined heat and power generator set |
| 10.4.5. | Liquid nitrogen fueled generator set |
| 10.4.6. | Liquid nitrogen fueled generator set for transport refrigeration |
| 10.4.7. | Global generator set market share by fuel type 2017 |
| 10.4.8. | Solar vs diesel genset performance comparison table |
| 10.4.9. | Solar vs diesel cost analysis |
| 10.4.10. | Future PV module price prediction |
| 10.4.11. | Anatomy of a solar + battery system |
| 10.4.12. | Power electronics performance comparison |
| 10.4.13. | Power electronics system cost comparison |
| 10.4.14. | Research cell efficiencies of different solar technologies |
| 10.4.15. | Metrics comparison of different solar technologies |
| 10.4.16. | Technology development roadmap of alternative PV technologies |
| 10.4.17. | Mobile solar market penetration; small scale |
| 10.4.18. | Mobile solar market penetration; small-to-medium scale |
| 10.4.19. | Mobile solar market penetration; larger scale |
| 10.4.20. | Floating photovoltaics |
| 10.4.21. | Wind power vs diesel genset performance comparison table |
| 10.4.22. | Horizontal vs vertical wind turbines |
| 10.4.23. | Evolution of wind turbine heights and output |
| 10.4.24. | Airborne wind energy generation profile |
| 10.4.25. | Airborne wind energy technology options |
| 10.4.26. | Airborne wind example |
| 10.4.27. | Wave power technology comparison |
| 10.4.28. | Wave power example |
| 10.4.29. | Choice of tidal turbines |
| 10.4.30. | Wave & tidal power vs diesel genset performance comparison table |
| 10.4.31. | Map of where ocean power is both strongest and closest to population |
| 10.4.32. | Fuel cell operational design |
| 10.4.33. | Fuel cell vs diesel genset performance comparison table |
| 10.4.34. | Different fuel cell technology comparison table |
| 10.4.35. | Alternative technology performance comparison table |
| 10.4.36. | Alternative technology scalability comparison |
| 10.5. | Hybrid Systems |
| 10.5.1. | Application comparison of energy storage technologies |
| 10.5.2. | Performance comparison of energy storage technologies |
| 10.5.3. | The battery trilemma |
| 10.5.4. | Li-ion battery price forecast |
| 10.5.5. | Energy storage technology power and energy comparison |
| 10.5.6. | Flywheel system design |
| 10.5.7. | Hybrid system components |
| 10.5.8. | Hybrid system applications |
| 10.5.9. | Rental business models |
| 10.5.10. | Hybridization of a genset system |
| 10.5.11. | Diesel + battery storage system operating mode 1 |
| 10.5.12. | Diesel + battery storage system operating mode 2 |
| 10.5.13. | Diesel + battery storage system operating mode 3 |
| 10.5.14. | Diesel + battery storage commercial example |
| 10.5.15. | Solar and wind life cycle costs |
| 10.5.16. | Solar + diesel system components |
| 10.5.17. | Solar + diesel operating conditions |
| 10.5.18. | Solar + diesel case study |
| 10.5.19. | Battery suitability comparison |
| 10.5.20. | Hybrid system operational scenarios case study |
| 10.5.21. | Hybrid system operational scenarios cost efficiency comparison |
| 10.5.22. | Typical hybrid system savings |
| 10.5.23. | Key players embracing hybridisation |
| 10.5.24. | Hybrid system business model benefits |
| 10.5.25. | Off grid categories; pico, micro, minigrid |
| 10.5.26. | Changing ownership and financing |
| 10.5.27. | Hybrid microgrid system design |
| 10.5.28. | ABB containerized microgrid |
| 10.5.29. | Schneider Electric portable microgrid |
| 10.5.30. | GE renewable hybrid power solution |
| 10.5.31. | Hybrid minigrid island case study |
| 10.5.32. | Hybrid minigrid commercial & industrial case study |
| 10.5.33. | Microgrid-as-a-service case study |
| 10.5.34. | Hybrid system key points |
| 10.6. | Market analysis |
| 10.6.1. | Global megratrends |
| 10.6.2. | Global population growth |
| 10.6.3. | Urbanisation factors |
| 10.6.4. | Global power demand |
| 10.6.5. | Market drivers |
| 10.6.6. | Commodity price correlation with genset market |
| 10.6.7. | Fuel economy correlation with genset market |
| 10.6.8. | Changing energy system factors |
| 10.6.9. | Regulatory timeline for diesel emissions |
| 10.6.10. | Change in emission reductions over time |
| 10.6.11. | Conflicting market drivers and constraints |
| 10.7. | Patent analysis |
| 10.7.1. | Generator set patents by fuel type |
| 10.7.2. | Generator set patents by patent family classification |
| 10.7.3. | Generator set patents by assignee |
| 10.7.4. | Aftertreatment technology patent analysis |
| 10.7.5. | Aftertreatment technology patents by assignee |
| 10.7.6. | Hybrid systems patent analysis |
| 10.7.7. | Caterpillar recent key patent analysis |
| 10.7.8. | Cummins recent key patent analysis |
| 10.8. | Market forecasts |
| 10.8.1. | Global generator set market forecast ($bn) 2019-2029 |
| 10.8.2. | Diesel and gas generator set market forecast ($bn) 2019-2029 |
| 10.8.3. | Generator set rental market forecast 2018 |
| 10.8.4. | Diesel generator set market forecast by region ($bn) 2019 - 2029 |
| 10.8.5. | Decline in Africa despite increased power demand |
| 10.8.6. | Generator set alternatives forecast ($bn) 2019-2029 |
| 10.8.7. | Alternative technologies forecast ($bn) 2019-2029 |
ディーゼル発電機の代替技術の世界市場は2029年までに48億ドルに達すると予測されます
レポート概要
| スライド | 360 |
|---|---|
| 企業数 | 45 |
| フォーキャスト | 2029 |
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