Drones 2018-2038: Components, Technologies, Roadmaps, Market Forecasts
Sept 21, 2018
The new report from IDTechEx Research, Drones 2018-2038: Components, Technologies, Roadmaps, Market Forecasts, provides a comprehensive analysis of the drone market, considering components, technologies, application roadmaps and markets. This report takes short-, medium- and long-term views. More specifically it provides the following:
Business trends in the drone industry: Here, we consider annual investment in 120 drone hardware and/or software companies. We clearly show that investment rose rapidly then peaked, consistent with the hype curve. We also clearly show that the composition of the investment shifted, emphasising software/service at the expense of the commoditized hardware. We explore the impact of the price wars in the drone business landscape. Here, we show that the leading suppliers effectively forced an industry consolidation, leaving others with no choice but to give up their hardware play and/or to rethink their strategies to find a differentiated offering in a specific commercial drone and/or software/service space. We offer insights into how future dynamics are likely to unfold.
Drone technology/components: We quantitively analyse the existing drone technology. Here, we analyse more than 60 drones to understand trends in drone prices, drone sizes, battery chemistries/capacities, flight times and ranges, body material compositions, various navigational or applicational sensors, electric motor capacity, electronic speed controllers and so on. This chapter provides a quantitative understanding of the drone technology as it is today both at the drone and the drone component levels.
Sensors in drones: We cover sensors in drones. Here, we consider two key trends. The first is the evolution towards full beyond-line-of-sight autonomous navigation. The second is the evolution of drones well beyond just flying photography cameras. For the first trend, we develop a roadmap showing how the on-board sensors and the supporting infrastructure need to evolve to achieve full autonomy. To this end, we will consider IMUs, GPS, camera, infrared, ultrasound, radar and LIDAR sensors. For the second trend we will consider sensors such as thermal, multispectral, hyperspectral, gas and other sensors.
Software and analytics: Software and analytics are key to drones. In this study, we consider three tiers of software: flight control, mission planning & management, and data analytics. For each tier, we consider the evolution of capability, covering the past, the present and the future. For example, for flight control we examine how the capability is evolving from basic remote-control towards full autonomous flight via see-avoid/track etc. We then explore the roadmap of software for each application sector. Here too we assess the past, the present, and the future, outlining the software capabilities today and those of the future. The timelines involved reflect out understanding of the technology and its challenges. Furthermore, we consider the impact of open source and examine the recent partnerships in this landscape.
Regulation: We provide a brief overview of the past and the present of regulation in key territories before offering insights into how the regulations might and should be evolved. Regulations currently impose many constraints on drones, shaping their potential market in various applications.
Furthermore, technology capability is currently pushing ahead of regulation therefore legislators worldwide have difficult calls to make to ensure the right balance between commercial interest, public safety and personal privacy.
Applications: We consider more than 12 drone commercial applications including agricultural, research & rescue, inspection, delivery/logistics, real estate, construction, people-carrying, etc. We analyse the readiness and hype level of each application. We assess the drone's value proposition and challenges in each application. Furthermore, we provide a roadmap, outlining the status of drones in each sector today and considering its short-, medium- and long-term futures. This analysis feeds into the timelines which we use in our market forecasts. Market forecasts (application-level): We provide short, medium- and long-term forecasts, in value and unit numbers, for the following sectors:
- Agriculture (hardware and software)
- Real estate
- Inspection (hardware and software)
- Construction software
- People carrying
To develop our forecasts, we carefully assess the technology adoption curve of drones in each market. Our insight and research enable us to estimate the size and position of drones in the technology adoption of each industry. We also build in reasonable replacement cycles in our models. All this enables us to build our forecast models, providing short-, medium- and long-term forecasts for drones in unit numbers and value.
Market forecasts (component level): We provide short, medium- and long-term forecasts in value and unit numbers for the following drone components:
- Electronic speed control (low-, mid- and high-rate)
- Electric motor (low-, mid-, and high-power)
- Navigation Sensors
- Camera (Navigation)
- Camera (FPV)
- Camera (Filming)
- Thermal Camera
- Multispectral Camera
Company profiles: Our research is based upon extensive primary and secondary research. We interview many companies in the business. In this report, we provide full profiles for around 30 drone companies including Agribotix, Deadalean, TwingTec, Yuneec, UniFly, UAV Factory, Precision Hawk, Aerovironment, Autel Robotics, Ehang, Exyn technologies, Flyability, Parrot, DJI, Airware, 3D Robotics, Aeryon Lab, DroneShield, vHive, Hoversurf, Nightingale Security, Sky-Futures, OPTELOS, SiteAware, Kray Technologies, DelairTech, Mothership Aero.
Unit numbers forecasts for drones in various applications including, in no particular order, consumer, agriculture, real estate, inspection, emergency, construction, delivery/logistic, people-carrying drones, etc We are also including historical data/estimates. For more details and exact numbers see Drones 2018-2038: Components, Technologies, Roadmaps, Market Forecasts. Market forecasts in value is included in the report. Source: IDTechEx Research
Market for various components in drones. The legends are ordered alphabetically and do not correspond to the figure. For more details and exact numbers see Drones 2018-2038: Components, Technologies, Roadmaps, Market Forecasts. Source: IDTechEx Research
Top image: Wikipedia