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NMC, LFP, silicon, and solid electrolytes will enter both mainstream and niche markets

Advanced Li-ion & Beyond Li-ion Batteries 2018-2028

Better materials, open challenges, niche markets

By Dr Lorenzo Grande and

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Advanced Li-ion battery technologies are being developed all the time, but only a few make it to the mass production stage. Every other week a hot start-up announces a breakthrough technology that will revolutionise the battery industry forever. IDTechEx brings clarity in the energy storage industry with a detailed analysis of advanced Li-ion batteries and other battery technologies.
 
The truth is that battery innovation takes place gradually and long validation cycles are needed before a new material can find its way into the mainstream market. Car companies are extremely cautious when adopting new battery technologies, as they do not want to set the whole industry on a collision course because of battery-related incidents. As an example, the adoption of high-nickel-content cathode materials like NMC622 and NMC811 has long been delayed, however according to recent announcements by LGChem and rumours about the new Nissan LEAF, NMC811 may enter the market as soon as 2018. On the other hand, the Chinese government has issued policy regulations that encourage battery companies in the country to switch from LFP cathodes to others that are more energy-dense, such as NMC and NCA, the one currently found in Tesla's electric cars.
 
Figure 1: different cathode production mix in 2018 and 2028
 
Based on conversations with industry leaders and IDTechEx's own expertise, this report analyses the Li-ion industry with a critical outlook into how it will evolve over the next ten years. The report also leverages on IDTechEx's unique overview of 45 different electric vehicle categories, which include land, water, and air vehicles. These categories are used as the starting point to outline what battery chemistry will be the dominating one in forklifts, AGVs, plug-in hybrids, buses, trucks, two-wheelers, ships, drones, and airplanes. Li-ion batteries and advanced Li-ion batteries are benchmarked and compared to other battery chemistries like lithium sulphur, lithium air, sodium ion, magnesium ion, zinc- carbon, supercapacitors, zinc air, and redox flow batteries. Additional markets like consumer electronics, wearables, and stationary storage are also presented and analysed with forecasts as to which battery chemistry will prevail or establish itself in a given niche.
 
The report is complemented with 12 full company profiles, as well as dozens of case studies from leading Li-ion manufacturers like LGChem and Tesla, or materials suppliers like 3M, Umicore, BASF, SGL, and Solvay. The advanced Li-ion industry is analysed in terms of cathode, anode, and electrolyte innovation, not to mention other key components like electrode binders, current collectors, additives, and conductive agents. A thorough analysis of graphite, both natural and synthetic, as well as silicon-based anodes, lithium titanate, lithium metal; LCO, NMC, LFP, NCA, and sulphur presents advantages and disadvantages of each material from both a technological and a strategic standpoint. The report includes ten year forecasts from 2018 through 2028 that detail the market share of each material over the next decade, answering key questions like:
 
  • What applications will LFP find after new regulations in China?
  • When is it more convenient to use lithium titanate as opposed to graphite?
  • What is the state of development with silicon anodes, and will they be used in silicon-dominant or graphite-dominant blends?
  • Are solid-state batteries ready for commercial development?
 
Through primary research, technology insights, and an impressive resource base, IDTechEx has put together a unique report that details all of the above, together with our signature ten-year market forecasts and a worldwide, comprehensive overview of the battery industry of the future.
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND FORECASTS
1.1.Li-ion batteries revolutionise energy availability
1.2.Why does battery innovation matter?
1.3.LIB cell cost ($/kWh) forecasts according to IDTechEx
1.4.Materials, processes, and markets for Advanced Li-ion
1.5.LIB standard chemistries in 2018, 2023, and 2028
1.6.Beyond Li-ion: new battery chemistries
1.7.Non-commercial new battery technologies
1.8.Forecasts ($B)
1.9.List of industry events mentioned in this report
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.What's the big deal with batteries?
2.1.1.What's the big deal with batteries?
2.1.2.What is energy storage and why does it matter?
2.1.3.LIB evolution over the last quarter of century
2.1.4.Prospects for Li-ion batteries
2.1.5.Challenges ahead
2.1.6.Li-ion batteries in the news
2.1.7.Better, cheaper Li-ion batteries
2.2.More than Li-ion
3.BATTERY BASICS
3.1.What is a battery?
3.1.1.What is a battery?
3.1.2.Redox reactions
3.1.3.Electrochemical reactions based on electron transfer
3.1.4.Primary (non-rechargeable) vs. secondary (rechargeable) batteries
3.1.5.Electrochemistry definitions
3.1.6.Useful charts for performance comparison
3.1.7.What does 1 kilowatthour (kWh) look like?
3.2.Energy Density
3.2.1.Energy density in context
3.2.2.Electrochemical inactive components reduce energy density
3.3.What is a Li-ion battery?
3.3.1.What is a Li-ion battery (LIB)?
3.3.2.There is more than one type of LIB
3.3.3.How can LIBs be improved?
3.3.4.Push and pull factors in Li-ion research
3.3.5.The battery trilemma
3.3.6.A quote from Thomas Edison on batteries
3.3.7.Performance goes up, cost goes down
3.3.8.General Motors' view on battery prices
3.4.Safety
3.4.1.Safety
3.4.2.Samsung's Firegate
3.4.3.The risks of a battery-intensive future
4.ADVANCED LI-ION BATTERIES
4.1.Batteries and thermodynamics
4.2.Lithium is not the only element in Li-ion batteries
4.2.1.The elements used in Li-ion batteries
4.3.Conventional Li-ion vs. Advanced Li-ion
4.3.1.Conventional Li-ion vs. Advanced Li-ion - what is the difference?
4.3.2.Summary of Advanced Li-ion technologies
4.3.3.Better batteries with a wider cell voltage
4.3.4.Better batteries with a higher electrode capacity
4.3.5.LGChem keynote at Interbattery 2017 in Seoul
4.4.Ways to get above 250 Wh/kg
5.LI-ION ELECTRODE MATERIALS
5.1.A family tree of batteries - Lithium-based
5.1.1.A peek into the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 - LIB teardown
5.1.2.A peek into Tesla's 18650 batteries - LIB teardown
5.2.Anode materials
5.2.1.Anode materials - Battery-grade graphite
5.2.2.Synthetic graphite
5.2.3.Anode alternatives - energy density vs. specific energy
5.2.4.Anode alternatives - lithium metal and LTO
5.2.5.Lithium metal - Hydro-Quebec
5.2.6.Li metal strategies - Tadiran, Polyplus, Solidenergy
5.2.7.Lithium metal needs to be handled in a dry room
5.2.8.The cost of using lithium metal
5.2.9.LTO - Toshiba
5.2.10.LTO - Nippon Chemicon
5.2.11.Anode alternatives - other carbon materials
5.2.12.Hard carbon as additive for LIBs - Kuraray
5.2.13.Anode alternatives - silicon, tin and alloying materials
5.2.14.Pure silicon, silicon-dominant, silicon-rich, graphite-dominant anode materials
5.2.15.Silicon manufacturing - Paraclete Energy
5.2.16.Graphite-dominant silicon anodes - SiLion and Black Diamond
5.2.17.Graphite-dominant silicon anodes - Nexeon
5.2.18.Silicon-dominant anodes - Fraunhofer ISE
5.2.19.Silicon-dominant anodes - 3M
5.2.20.Silicon-dominant anodes - 3M
5.2.21.Silicon-dominant anodes - Enevate
5.2.22.Silicon-dominant anodes - Amprius
5.2.23.Pure silicon anodes - Enovix
5.2.24.Pure silicon anodes - Leyden Jar
5.2.25.Silicon alloy anodes - BioSolar
5.2.26.Silicon oxide anodes - Shin-Etsu
5.2.27.The silicon anode value chain
5.2.28.IP uncertainty in silicon anodes
5.2.29.Graphene's role in silicon anodes
5.2.30.Graphene and silicon - SiNode Systems
5.2.31.Benchmark comparison of 11 Silicon-based battery companies
5.3.Cathode materials
5.3.1.Standard cathode materials - LCO and LFP
5.3.2.Cathode alternatives - NCA
5.3.3.Cathode alternatives - LNMO, NMC, V2O5
5.3.4.LMO - ZSW Ulm
5.3.5.Li-ion battery cathode recap
5.3.6.Ultra-high energy NMC - Kokam
5.3.7.Future NMC/NCM - From 111 to 622 and 811
5.3.8.NMC Cathode materials at Interbattery 2017
5.3.9.Future NMC/NCM - Hanyang University
5.3.10.Future NMC/NCM - BASF
5.3.11.Future NMC/NCM - Umicore
5.3.12.Patent litigation over NMC/NCM - Umicore vs. BASF
5.3.13.Patent litigation - the positive example of LFP
5.3.14.New cathode materials - FDK Corporation
6.INACTIVE MATERIALS
6.1.Separators
6.1.1.Separators - polyolefins
6.1.2.Separator manufacturing
6.1.3.Polyolefin separators - Celgard
6.1.4.Ceramic separators - Sion Power's Licerion
6.1.5.Ceramic coatings - Litarion, Optodot, Nabaltec
6.1.6.Ceramic coatings
6.1.7.Cellulose separators - Uppsala university
6.1.8.New battery separators - Dreamweaver
6.2.Current collectors
6.2.1.Current collectors - aluminium and copper
6.2.2.Current collectors - copper from LS Mtron
6.2.3.New current collectors - Dreamweaver
6.2.4.Porous current collectors - Nano-Nouvelle
6.3.Binders
6.3.1.Binders - aqueous vs. non-aqueous
6.3.2.Binder processing
6.3.3.Better binders - Solvay
6.3.4.Replacing toxic NMP - PPG
6.3.5.Better binders - Zeon
6.3.6.Better binders - Ashland
6.4.Solvents
6.4.1.NMP vs. aqueous processing
6.5.Conductive additives
6.5.1.Conductive agents
6.5.2.Conductive agents - Imerys
6.5.3.Conductive agents - Orion Engineered Carbons
6.5.4.Conductive agents - OCSiAl
6.6.Electrolytes, salts, and additives
6.6.1.Electrolytes - the solvents
6.6.2.Electrolytes - Ionic liquids
6.6.3.Electrolytes - conducting salts
6.6.4.Electrolyte additives
6.7.Solid-state electrolytes
6.7.1.Solid-state batteries - after the 2016 hype
6.7.2.Lithium-ion batteries vs. Solid-State batteries
6.7.3.Comparison between inorganic and polymer electrolytes
6.7.4.Inorganic electrolytes
6.7.5.Difference between inorganic and polymer electrolytes
6.7.6.Critical aspects of solid electrolytes
6.7.7.Solid electrolytes - Toyota Motors
6.7.8.Solid electrolytes - Solvay
6.7.9.Solid electrolytes - Solvay
6.7.10.Electrolytes - Solid Power
6.7.11.Solid electrolytes - Solidenergy
6.7.12.Solid electrolytes - US Army Research Lab
6.7.13.Solid-state Electrolyte Technology evaluation
7.CURRENT LI-ION VS. FUTURE LI-ION
7.1.Future Li-ion according to BMW
7.2.LGChem's view of future batteries
7.3.Battery Projects
7.3.1.ARPA-E Battery 500 Project
7.3.2.ARPA-E Battery 500 Project
7.3.3.Approved projects
7.3.4.Approved projects
7.3.5.Approved projects
8.BEYOND LI-ION TECHNOLOGIES
8.1.Is Li-ion the silver bullet of batteries?
8.1.1.Is Li-ion the silver bullet of batteries?
8.1.2.Is Li-ion the silver bullet of batteries?
8.1.3.The innovation cycle
8.1.4.Li-ion vs. future Li-ion vs. beyond Li-ion
8.1.5.There are several avenues to better batteries
8.1.6.What is the future battery technology?
8.1.7.Cathodes for post-Li-ion
9.LITHIUM-SULPHUR
9.1.Motivation - Why Lithium Sulphur batteries?
9.1.1.Operating principle of lithium-sulphur batteries
9.1.2.Advantages of LSBs
9.1.3.Challenges for LSBs
9.1.4.Challenges for LSBs - Polysulphide solubility issue
9.1.5.Challenges for LSBs - Sulphur conductivity
9.1.6.Challenges for LSBs - Anode protection
9.1.7.Solutions to LSB challenges  electrode structure approach
9.1.8.Solutions to LSB challenges  electrode structure approach
9.1.9.Solutions to LSB challenges  Electrolyte approaches
9.2.Lithium-sulphur batteries
9.2.1.Lithium-sulphur batteries - Polyplus
9.2.2.Lithium-sulphur batteries - Sion Power
9.2.3.Lithium-sulphur batteries - Oxis Energy
9.2.4.Silicon/sulphur battery - GIST University
9.2.5.LSB Electrolytes - TU Dresden
9.2.6.Lithium-sulphur - Daimler
9.3.Lithium sulphur battery applications
9.3.1.Lithium sulphur battery applications - Defense
9.3.2.Li sulphur battery applications - autonomous vehicles
9.4.Lithium Sulphur value chain
10.LITHIUM-AIR
10.1.The Holy Grail of batteries - lithium-air batteries
10.2.Types of Lithium-air batteries
10.3.Aqueous LABs
10.3.1.Aqueous LABs - Polyplus
10.3.2.Aqueous LABs - Ohara Corp.
10.3.3.Aqueous LABs - Energie De France (EDF)
10.4.Non-aqueous LABs
10.4.1.Non-aqueous LABs - Oxford University
10.4.2.Non-aqueous LABs - Toyota
10.5.Technical challenges for LABs
10.5.1.Technical challenges for LABs
11.OTHER LI-BASED BATTERIES
11.1.Lithium/thionyl chloride (Li-SOCl2)
11.2.Lithium/iodine (Li-I2)
11.3.Lithium/sulphur dioxide - Seoul National University
12.SODIUM-ION
12.1.Sodium-ion batteries as a drop-in technology
12.2.Working principle of sodium-ion batteries
12.3.Sodium-ion vs. Lithium-ion
12.4.Life cycle assessment of Na-ion vs. Li-ion
12.5.Sodium-ion - Laboratories
12.5.1.Sodium-ion - Sharp Laboratories of Europe
12.5.2.Sodium-ion - Faradion
12.5.3.Sodium-ion - NEI Corporation
12.5.4.Sodium-ion - Broadbit Batteries
12.5.5.Aqueous sodium-ion - Alveo Energy
12.5.6.Aqueous sodium-ion - Juline-Titans (former Aquion Energy)
12.6.The cost of sodium-ion batteries - CIC Energigune
12.7.New cathodes for sodium-ion - Seoul National University
13.REDOX FLOW BATTERIES
13.1.Catholytes and anolytes
13.2.Exploded view of an RFB and polarisation curve
13.3.The case for RFBs
13.3.1.The case for RFBs
13.3.2.The case for RFBs
13.4.Types of RFBs
13.4.1.RFB chemistries: Iron/Chromium
13.4.2.RFB chemistries: PSB flow batteries
13.4.3.RFB chemistries: Vanadium/Bromine
13.4.4.RFB chemistries: all Vanadium (VRFB)
13.4.5.Hybrid RFBs: Zinc/Bromine
13.4.6.Hybrid RFBs: Hydrogen/Bromine
13.4.7.Hybrid RFBs: all Iron
13.4.8.Other RFBs: organic
13.4.9.Other RFBs: non-aqueous
13.4.10.Lab-scale flow battery projects
13.4.11.Microflow batteries?
13.5.Other RFB configurations
13.6.Redox Flow Battery Technology Recap
13.7.Hype Curve® for RFB technologies
13.8.Comparison with fuel cells and conventional batteries
13.9.Redox Flow Batteries
13.9.1.Redox Flow Batteries - Sumitomo Electric
13.9.2.Redox Flow Batteries - ThyssenKrupp
14.SUPERCAPACITORS AND LITHIUM-ION CAPACITORS
14.1.Operating principle of supercapacitors
14.2.Types of capacitor
14.3.Principles - capacitance
14.4.Principles - supercapacitance
14.4.1.Principles - supercapacitance
14.4.2.Principles - supercapacitance
14.5.Supercapacitors: victims of the wrong performance metric?
14.5.1.Supercapacitors: victims of the wrong performance metric?
14.5.2.Supercapacitors: victims of the wrong performance metric?
14.6.Forklifts may not be the same again
14.6.1.Forklifts may not be the same again
14.6.2.Forklifts may not be the same again
14.7.Lithium-ion capacitors (LIC)
14.8.Supercapacitors and Lithium-ion capacitors
14.9.LICs for EV fast charging infrastructures - ZapGo
15.MAGNESIUM-ION
15.1.Magnesium-ion batteries
15.2.Magnesium-ion - Ljubljana University
15.3.Magnesium-ion - ZSW Ulm
16.SODIUM-SULPHUR
16.1.Sodium-sulphur batteries
16.2.Sodium-sulphur batteries - NGK Insulators
17.ZINC-AIR
17.1.Zinc-air batteries - operating principle
17.2.The problem of making Zn-air high-power
17.3.Zn-air batteries - EMW Energy
17.4.Zn-air batteries - Fluidic Energy
17.5.Zn-air batteries - EOS Energy Storage
18.ZINC-CARBON
18.1.Zinc-carbon batteries
18.2.Zinc-carbon batteries - Medical applications
18.3.Zinc-carbon batteries - Cosmetic skin patches
18.4.Zinc-carbon - FlexEL LLC
18.5.Zinc-carbon - Zinergy Power
19.BENCHMARK OF LI-ION VS. OTHER TECHNOLOGIES
19.1.A family tree of batteries - Li-ion
19.2.A family tree of batteries - Non-Li-ion
19.3.Benchmarking of theoretical battery performance
19.4.Benchmarking of practical battery performance
19.5.Battery technology benchmark - Comparison chart
19.6.Battery technology benchmark - open challenges
20.ADDRESSABLE MARKETS
20.1.Electric vehicles
20.1.1.Electric vehicles as a catch-all term
20.1.2.Electric vehicles - Volkswagen
20.1.3.Electric buses - Toshiba
20.1.4.Electric aircraft - UBER Elevate
20.2.Consumer electronics
20.2.1.Battery technologies for consumer electronics
20.3.Wearables
20.3.1.Battery technologies for wearables
20.3.2.Wearables suffer from bulky batteries
20.4.Stationary storage (BESS)
20.4.1.The increasingly important role of stationary storage
20.4.2.Li-ion is capturing market share at the expense of lead-acid
20.4.3.Stationary storage battery choice in 2017
20.5.Internet of Things (IoT)
20.5.1.Battery choices for the Internet of Things
21.MARKET FORECASTS
21.1.Cathode materials forecasts 2018 - 2028
21.1.1.LIB market by cathode material - GWh
21.1.2.LIB markets by cathode material - $B
21.1.3.LIB-based EV market share - $B
21.1.4.LIB cathode production, 2018 vs. 2028
21.1.5.Cathode market forecasts - a detailed analysis
21.1.6.EV battery tech market share - $B
21.1.7.Lead acid and NiMH battery markets in electric vehicles 2018 - 2028 ($M)
21.1.8.Selected EV markets and cathode/battery type market share
21.1.9.Different technologies will dominate different EV segments
21.1.10.PHEV vs. HEV markets by battery choice ($B)
21.1.11.PHEV vs. HEV markets by battery choice - analysis
21.1.12.Pure electric vehicle markets by battery choice ($B)
21.1.13.48V mild hybrid and micro-EV markets by battery choice ($B)
21.1.14.Pure EV and 48V mild hybrid markets by battery choice - analysis
21.2.Anode materials forecasts 2018 - 2028
21.2.1.LIB market by anode material - GWh
21.2.2.LIB market by anode material - 2018 vs. 2028
21.2.3.LIB market by anode material - $B
21.2.4.LIB-based EV market share - $B
21.2.5.Selected EV markets and anode type market share
21.2.6.Pure electric vehicle markets and market share by anode
21.2.7.Pure electric vehicles and anode markets - analysis
21.2.8.Other passenger EV anode markets
21.2.9.Other passenger EV anode markets - analysis
21.3.Li-ion electrolyte forecasts 2018 - 2028
21.3.1.Electrolyte technology market share (GWh)
21.3.2.Electrolyte technology market share ($B)
21.3.3.Electric vehicle electrolyte market share (%)
21.3.4.Electrolyte market - analysis
21.4.Battery forecasts for drones and electric aircraft, 2018 - 2028
21.4.1.Drones and electric aircraft - can lithium-sulphur make it?
21.4.2.Drone market share by anode ($M)
21.5.Battery forecasts for marine EVs, 2018 - 2028
21.5.1.Battery technologies for the marine sector
21.6.Battery forecasts for consumer electronics, 2018 - 2028
21.6.1.Consumer electronics cathode and anode choice ($B)
21.7.Battery forecasts for stationary storage (BESS), 2018 - 2028
21.7.1.Stationary storage battery choice ($B)
21.8.Disruptive potential vs. rate of innovation
21.9.Summary tables - cathode, anode, electrolyte ($B)
22.COMPANY PROFILES
22.1.SiNode Systems
22.2.Broadbit Batteries
22.3.Unienergy Technology
22.4.NGK
22.5.24M
22.6.Johnson Battery Technology
22.7.Nano Nouvelle
22.8.US Army Research Lab
22.9.Voltaiq
22.10.PARC
22.11.Energous
22.12.Tanktwo
23.APPENDIX
23.1.List of abbreviations
 

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