Lufttaxis: Senkrecht startende und landende elektrische Flugzeuge 2021-2041: IDTechEx

Market for eVTOL Air Taxis to grow to $14.7 billion by 2041

Lufttaxis: Senkrecht startende und landende elektrische Flugzeuge 2021-2041

eVTOL-Akteure, 20-Jahres-Marktprognosen, TCO-Analyse, fortschrittliche Batterien, Elektromotoren, dezentraler Elektroantrieb, Verbundwerkstoffe für die Luftfahrt und Skyport-Infrastruktur für Lufttaxis.


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IDTechEx's new report "Air Taxis: Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing Aircraft 2021-2041" is intended to help companies understand the exciting emerging urban air mobility (UAM) market. Our research provides comprehensive detail, from the basic pros and cons of the different electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft design architectures, through to more nuanced detail on opportunities in key enabling technologies, such as aviation grade batteries, advanced electric motors and propulsion systems, composite materials and eVTOL ground infrastructure. Along with information and insight into the eVTOL air taxi market our report contains IDTechEx's 20-year outlook for eVTOL air taxi sales, market revenue, battery demand and battery market revenue, with a detailed breakdown of our forecasting methodology.
 
The concept of flying taxis is easy to hype. We have all grown up with images of the future that include mass mobility in the air. It is one of the staples of any depiction of advanced societies and a trope of almost every science fiction movie or book (however dystopian). IDTechEx's new report "Air Taxis: Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing Aircraft 2021-2041" is not that hype. Our independent research into eVTOL aircraft for passenger transport reflects the reality of the eVTOL market at this early stage of its development.
 
Our analysis of air taxi / passenger drone operations within Urban Air Mobility (UAM) suggests that there are frequently talked about areas for air taxi deployment which simply do not look viable, offering commuters no perceivable benefit at a greater expense. However, IDTechEx's research also indicates applications where eVTOL aircraft could provide a faster, more direct, and flexible journey, at a lower cost than competing transport modes. It is this potential which has attracted the attention of huge companies both inside and outside the aviation industry and stirred major investment into this nascent market.
 
Source: IDTechEx "Air Taxis: Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing Aircraft 2021-2041"
Indeed, many of the world's largest aerospace and automotive companies are ramping up their interest in eVTOL aircraft, recognising it as a potentially disruptive new transport mode. Incumbent OEMs like Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, and Bell have ongoing eVTOL development programmes. The major aerospace suppliers Raytheon, GE, SAFRAN, Rolls-Royce, and Honeywell, are all investing in eVTOL related technologies including electric and hybrid-electric powertrain components, systems for autonomous flight and advanced air traffic management systems. Furthermore, composite material manufacturers like Toray and Hexcel have been working with OEMs on the advanced lightweight materials required for several facets of eVTOL design. The automotive industry is taking an interest as well, with Toyota, Hyundai, Geely, Stellantis, Daimler, and GM, all funding, collaborating on, or conducting their own eVTOL projects.
 
Toyota invested nearly $400 million in eVTOL start-up Joby Aviation in January 2020, in a $590 million funding round that was joined by private fund manager Baillie Gifford, which famously invested early in Tesla stock at $6 per share. Baillie Gifford have also invested $35 million in German eVTOL OEM Lilium, recognising the long-term potential of this transformative emerging market. Aside from Joby Aviation and Lilium, there are a host of interesting eVTOL start-ups around the world, including Volocopter in Germany, EHang in the China, SkyDrive in Japan, Vertical Aerospace in the UK, and Jaunt Air Mobility and Beta Technologies in the US, who are at various stages on the way to a commercial product. A number are now conducting manned test flights of their eVTOL aircraft. US eVTOL OEM Archer Aviation, who have made very little information public about their aircraft, recently announced their intention to become a publicly traded company via a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). This deal would value Archer at some $3.8 billion. In addition to this news, Archer also announced a $1 billion order by United Airlines for its eVTOL aircraft. As the first eVTOL aircraft get closer to flight certification, interest in the market is certainly on the rise.
 
~Source: IDTechEx "Air Taxis: Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing Aircraft 2021-2041", Graphics: FEV.com
The new report "Air Taxis: Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing Aircraft 2021-2041" contains detail on the reaction of aerospace and aviation OEMs and suppliers to this developing market, along with background into ongoing eVTOL development projects. We present journey time analysis for various air taxi applications as well as an investigation of total cost of operations for eVTOL air taxi services, with comparison against current helicopter operating costs.
 
eVTOL aircraft present opportunities for companies across numerous technology fields with significant challenges still to be addressed, especially in battery technologies to meet demanding high power, high energy density, and high cycle life requirements. These demands are leading many to look at hybrid powertrain options with either existing turbine and piston engine or fuel cells. The demanding requirements of electric powered flight offer a promising market for developers of many cutting-edge enabling technologies such as lithium metal batteries, advanced composites, and axial flux motors.
 
There are opportunities across the board, with first-mover advantage rewarded due to necessarily slow aviation certification times, to ensure safety requirements are met. Those to market first will have the opportunity to be the face of this electrifying new market as a brand leader at the technological forefront. For any company wondering whether they should investigate this market, the question is why not? The hard work being done over the next decade could pave the way for eVTOL to have a significant role in future mobility.
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.IDTechEx Air Taxis: Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing Aircraft Report
1.2.Flying Cars: The Dream Becoming A Reality
1.3.What Is An eVTOL Aircraft?
1.4.eVTOL Architectures
1.5.Why eVTOL Aircraft?
1.6.eVTOL Getting Off The Ground
1.7.Conclusions on Air Taxi Time Saving
1.8.Huge Companies Are Already Investing In eVTOL
1.9.Exciting Start-Ups Are Attracting Large Funding
1.10.When will the First eVTOL Air Taxis Launch?
1.11.Air Taxi Services
1.12.eVTOL As An Urban Mass Mobility Solution?
1.13.Where Is The eVTOL Air Taxi Advantage?
1.14.The Value of Autonomous Flight
1.15.eVTOL: Summary of Enabling Technologies
1.16.The Need for Component Improvements
1.17.eVTOL Battery Requirements
1.18.Lithium-based Batteries Beyond Li-ion
1.19.Li-ion Chemistry Snapshot: 2020, 2025, 2030
1.20.eVTOL Motor / Powertrain Requirements
1.21.eVTOL Composite Material Requirements
1.22.eVTOL Infrastructure Requirements
1.23.Forecast Summary
1.24.eVTOL Air Taxi Sales Forecast (Units)
1.25.eVTOL Air Taxi Battery Demand Forecast (MWh)
1.26.eVTOL Battery Market Revenue Forecast ($USD million)
1.27.eVTOL Air Taxi Market Revenue Forecast ($USD billion)
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.What is an eVTOL Aircraft?
2.2.Distributed Electric Propulsion
2.3.The Dream of Urban Air Mobility
2.4.Advantages of UAM Networks
2.5.Advanced Air Mobility
2.6.eVTOL Applications
2.7.Air Taxi Services
2.8.Current General Aviation Aircraft
2.9.Why Helicopters are not Suitable for UAM
2.10.Range and Endurance Limitations of eVTOL
2.11.GAMA General Aviation Helicopter Sales and Market
2.12.Worldwide Helicopter Fleet
2.13.Helicopter OEMs
2.14.GAMA General Aviation Airplane Sales and Market Size
2.15.Top 5 General Aviation OEMs By Airplane Type
2.16.What is making eVTOL possible?
2.17.Why eVTOL Aircraft?
2.18.eVTOL Air Taxis: Much More Than New Aircraft
2.19.Huge Companies are Investing in eVTOL Development
2.20.eVTOL Start-Up Investment
2.21.Market Outlook
2.22.Significant Challenges
2.23.Numerous Opportunities
2.24.NASA: UAM Challenges and Constraints
2.25.Key Issues for eVTOL Air Taxis
3.AEROSPACE SUPPLIERS EVTOL AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY
3.1.Top 5 Aerospace Suppliers by Revenue
3.2.Raytheon Technologies Corp.
3.3.General Electric
3.4.SAFRAN
3.5.Rolls-Royce
3.6.Honeywell
4.JOURNEY USE-CASES & OPTIMIZATION: WHERE EVTOL HAS AN ADVANTAGE
4.1.Will eVTOL Taxis Reduce Journey Time?
4.2.eVTOL Multicopter vs Robotaxi: 10km Journey
4.3.eVTOL vs Robotaxi: Example 10km Journey
4.4.eVTOL Multicopter vs Robotaxi: 40km Journey
4.5.eVTOL vs Robotaxi: Example 40km Journey
4.6.Multicopter eVTOL vs Robotaxi: 100km Journey
4.7.Vectored Thrust eVTOL vs Robotaxi: 100km Journey
4.8.eVTOL vs Robotaxi: Example 100km Journey
4.9.Important Factors for an Air Taxi Time Advantage
4.10.Conclusions on Air Taxi Time Saving
5.IDTECHEX COST ANALYSIS
5.1.TCO Analysis: eVTOL Taxi $/50km Trip (Base Case)
5.2.eVTOL vs Helicopter Operating Cost
5.3.eVTOL Aircraft Upfront Cost
5.4.eVTOL Operational Fuel Cost Savings
5.5.The Value of Autonomous Flight
5.6.TCO vs Helicopters Uber Air $/mile
5.7.Sensitivity to Battery Cost and Performance
5.8.Sensitivity to Upfront / Infrastructure Cost
5.9.Sensitivity to Average Trip Length
5.10.TCO Analysis: $/15km Trip: Multicopter eVTOL Design
5.11.TCO $/15km Autonomous Trip: Multicopter vs Base case
6.EVTOL ARCHITECTURES
6.1.World eVTOL Aircraft Directory
6.2.Geographical Distribution of eVTOL Projects
6.3.Key Players: eVTOL Air Taxi
6.4.Main eVTOL Architectures
6.5.eVTOL Architecture Choice
6.6.eVTOL Multicopter / Rotorcraft
6.7.Multicopter: Flight Modes
6.8.Multicopter / Rotorcraft: Key Players Specifications
6.9.Benefits / Drawbacks of Multicopters
6.10.eVTOL Lift + Cruise
6.11.Lift + Cruise: Flight Modes
6.12.Lift + Cruise: Key Players Specifications
6.13.Benefits / Drawbacks of Lift + Cruise
6.14.Vectored Thrust eVTOL
6.15.Vectored Thrust: Flight Modes
6.16.eVTOL Vectored Thrust: Tiltwing
6.17.Tiltwing: Key Player Specifications
6.18.Benefits / Drawbacks of Tiltwing
6.19.eVTOL Vectored Thrust: Tiltrotor
6.20.Tiltrotor: Key Player Specifications
6.21.Benefits / Drawbacks of Tiltrotor
6.22.When will the First eVTOL Air Taxis Launch?
6.23.Manned Air Taxi eVTOL Test Flights
6.24.Unmanned Air Taxi eVTOL Model Test Flights
6.25.Range and Cruise Speed: Electric eVTOL Designs
6.26.Hover Lift Efficiency and Disc Loading
6.27.Hover and Cruise Efficiency by eVTOL Architecture
6.28.Complexity, Criticality & Cruise Performance
6.29.Comparison of eVTOL Architectures
7.PROGRAMS SUPPORTING EVTOL DEVELOPMENT
7.1.Uber Elevate - Joby Aviation
7.2.Driving Air Taxi Progress: Uber Elevate
7.3.Uber Elevate: Strategic OEM Vehicle Partnerships
7.4.Uber Air Vehicle Requirements
7.5.Uber Air Mission Profile
7.6.U.S. Airforce eVTOL Support - Agility Prime
7.7.US Airforce - Agility Prime
7.8.Agility Prime: Advance Air Mobility Ecosystem
7.9.Agility Prime: Advance Air Mobility Ecosystem
7.10.NASA: Advanced Air Mobility National Campaign
7.11.Groupe ADP eVTOL Test Area
7.12.China's Unmanned Civil Aviation Zones
7.13.UK's Future Flight Challenge
7.14.Varon Vehicles: UAM in Latin America
8.OEM MARKET PLAYERS
8.1.Airbus
8.2.Airbus A3 (Acubed): Vahana
8.3.Vahana Controls and Redundancy
8.4.Airbus Helicopters: CityAirbus
8.5.Airbus eVTOL Projects
8.6.Archer Aviation
8.7.Bell Textron
8.8.Bell Textron: Nexus
8.9.Bell Textron: Experimental eVTOL Concepts
8.10.Bell Textron
8.11.Bell Textron - Key eVTOL Partnerships
8.12.BETA Technologies
8.13.EHang 216
8.14.EHang
8.15.Embraer: Eve (EmbraerX)
8.16.Hyundai: S-A1
8.17.Jaunt Air Mobility: Journey Air Taxi
8.18.Jaunt Air Mobility
8.19.Jaunt Air Mobility - Key Partners
8.20.Joby Aviation
8.21.Lilium
8.22.Moog: SureFly
8.23.SkyDrive: SD-XX
8.24.Volocopter: VoloCity
8.25.Volocopter
8.26.IDTechEx Portal Company Profiles - OEM
9.BATTERIES FOR EVTOL
9.1.What is a Li-ion Battery?
9.2.Electrochemistry Definitions
9.3.The Battery Trilemma
9.4.Battery Wish List for an eVTOL
9.5.More Than One Type of Li-ion Battery
9.6.eVTOL Battery Requirements
9.7.Airbus Minimum Battery Requirement
9.8.eVTOL Battery Range Calculation
9.9.Aerospace Battery Pack Sizing
9.10.Importance of Battery Pack Energy Density
9.11.Importance of eVTOL Lift/Drag to Range
9.12.Uber Air Proposed Battery Requirements
9.13.Battery Size
9.14.Batteries Packs: More than Just Cells
9.15.Eliminating the Battery Module
9.16.eVTOL Batteries: Specific Energy Vs Discharge Rates
9.17.Battery500
9.18.E-One Moli Energy Corp.
9.19.Electric Power Systems (EPS): Li-ion Batteries
9.20.Electric Power Systems (EPS)
9.21.Amprius Inc: Silicon Anode
9.22.Leclanche Energy Density Targets
9.23.Moving on from Li-ion?
9.24.Lithium-based Batteries Beyond Li-ion
9.25.Li-ion Chemistry Snapshot: 2020, 2025, 2030
9.26.Lithium-Sulfur Batteries (Li-S)
9.27.Advantages of LSBs
9.28.Li-sulfur energy density
9.29.OXIS Energy: Lithium-Sulfur Batteries
9.30.Lithium-Metal and Solid-State Batteries (SSB)
9.31.Solid Energy Systems - Solid State Batteries
9.32.Sion Power Corporation: Lithium-Metal Battery
9.33.Sion Power Corporation: Lithium-Metal Battery
9.34.Cuberg: Lithium-Metal Batteries
9.35.Battery Chemistry Comparison for eVTOL
9.36.Battery Fast Charging
9.37.Battery Swapping
9.38.Distributed Battery Modules
9.39.eVTOL Battery Cost
9.40.Development Focus for eVTOL Batteries
10.FUEL CELL EVTOL
10.1.Fuel Cell eVTOL
10.2.Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells
10.3.Grey Hydrogen
10.4.Conclusions for Hydrogen Fuel Cell eVTOL
11.HYBRID EVTOL
11.1.Electric Propulsion System
11.2.Conventional Propulsion Systems
11.3.Hybrid Propulsion Systems
11.4.Hybrid Systems Optimisation
11.5.All-Electric Range vs Fuel Cell and Hybrid Powertrains
11.6.Hybrid Propulsion: Turbines and Piston Engines
11.7.Conclusions for Hybrid eVTOL
12.ELECTRIC MOTORS
12.1.eVTOL Motor / Powertrain Requirements
12.2.eVTOL Aircraft Motor Power Sizing
12.3.eVTOL Power Requirement: kW Estimate
12.4.eVTOL Power Requirement
12.5.eVTOL Power Requirement: kW Estimate
12.6.Electric Motors and Distributed Electric Propulsion
12.7.eVTOL Number of Electric Motors
12.8.Motor Sizing
12.9.Electric Motors Designs
12.10.Comparison of Motor Construction and Merits
12.11.Brushless DC Motors (BLDC)
12.12.BLDC Motors: Advantages, Disadvantages
12.13.BLDC: Benchmarking
12.14.Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSM)
12.15.PMSM: Advantages, Disadvantages
12.16.PMSM: Benchmarking
12.17.Axial Flux Motors
12.18.Why Axial Flux Motors in eVTOL?
12.19.Yoked or Yokeless Axial Flux
12.20.Axial Flux Motors - Interesting Players
12.21.List of Axial Flux Motor Players
12.22.YASA
12.23.Rolls-Royce / Siemens
12.24.EMRAX
12.25.ePropelled
12.26.H3X
12.27.MAGicALL
12.28.Magnix
12.29.MGM COMPRO
12.30.SAFRAN
12.31.Case-studies
13.COMPOSITE MATERIALS & LIGHTWEIGHTING
13.1.Composite Materials - Lightweighting
13.2.What is Lightweighting?
13.3.Lightweight Material Drivers
13.4.Comparison of Lightweight Materials
13.5.Lightweight Material Candidates
13.6.Introduction to Composites
13.7.Introduction to Composite Materials
13.8.Comparison of Relative Fiber Properties
13.9.Cost Adjusted Fiber Properties
13.10.Supply Chain for Composite Manufacturers
13.11.Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer (CFRP)
13.12.Glass Fibres
13.13.FRP/PMC Introduction
13.14.Resins - Overview and Property Comparison
13.15.Thermoplastics for Composites - Overview
13.16.Thermosetting Resins - Key Resins
13.17.Key Challenges for Composites
13.18.CFRP Automation Case Study
13.19.eVTOL Composite Material Requirements
13.20.Composite Materials - Toray / Joby Aviation
13.21.Composite Materials - Toray / Lilium
13.22.Composite Materials - BFT / Beta
13.23.Composite Materials - Triumph / Jaunt
13.24.Composite Materials - Aria Group / Hyundai
13.25.Composite Materials - GKN Aerospace / Bell
13.26.Composite Materials - Hexcel
14.REGULATION
14.1.eVTOL Certification
14.2.eVTOL Regulation
14.3.European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA)
14.4.EASA Special Condition: SC-VTOL
14.5.EASA Certification Categories
14.6.EASA EUROCAE Working Groups
14.7.European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA)
14.8.U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
14.9.Civil Aviation Authority of China (CAAC)
15.VERTIPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR EVTOL
15.1.eVTOL Infrastructure Requirements
15.2.Skyport / Vertiports
15.3.Vertiport Nodal Network
15.4.CORGAN
15.5.CORGAN: Meeting Operational Demand
15.6.CORGAN: Stacked Skyports
15.7.CORGAN's Mega Skyport
15.8.CORGAN Uber Skyport Mobility Hub
15.9.MVRDV
15.10.Hyundai Future Mobility Vision
15.11.Groupe ADP
15.12.Lilium Scalable Vertiports
15.13.Skyports
15.14.VoloPort
15.15.Beta Technologies Recharge Pad
15.16.EHang E-Port
15.17.Uber Air Mega Skyport Concepts 2018
15.18.Uber Air Skyport Mobility Hub Concepts 2019
15.19.eVTOL Urban Air Traffic Management (UATM)
15.20.UAM Traffic Management
16.FORECASTS
16.1.Forecast Summary
16.2.Global eVTOL Sales Forecast 2021-2041: Methodology
16.3.Global eVTOL Sales Forecast 2021-2041: Methodology
16.4.eVTOL Air Taxi Sales Forecast (Units)
16.5.eVTOL Air Taxi Sales Forecast by World Bank Country Wealth Definition and Economy Size (Units)
16.6.eVTOL Air Taxi Battery Demand Forecast (MWh)
16.7.eVTOL Battery Market Revenue Forecast ($USD million)
16.8.eVTOL forecast: Average eVTOL Battery Size 2018-2041
16.9.eVTOL Air Taxi Market Revenue Forecast ($USD billion)
16.10.eVTOL forecast: Average eVTOL Price 2018-2041
 

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