Lidar 2023-2033: Technologien, Akteure, Märkte & Prognosen

The lidar market for automotive applications will grow to US$8.4 billion by 2033. The demand for lidars to be adopted in the automotive industry drives the huge investment and rapid progression of lidars, with the innovations in beam steering technologies, performance improvement, and cost reduction in lidar transceiver components. These efforts can enable lidars to be implemented in a wider application scenario beyond conventional usage and automobiles. IDTechEx leverages its experiences such as in laser physics, semiconductors, optics, sensors, optoelectronics, and transportation, to provide a comprehensive analysis on technologies and products. 10 year market forecasts on lidar units and market value with a focus on automotive have been provided. IDTechEx also tracks the development and activities of 95 global players, with unbiased research and appraisal.

 

Following a period of dedicated research by expert analysts, IDTechEx has published a report that offers unique insights into the global 3D lidar technology landscape and corresponding market. The report contains a comprehensive analysis of 95 players developing 3D lidar for the ADAS and autonomous vehicles market, which includes a detailed assessment of technology innovations and market dynamics. While the market analysis and forecasts focus on the automotive industry, the technology analysis and company profiles also cover lidar for industrial automation, robotics, smart city, security, and mapping. Importantly, the report presents an unbiased analysis of primary data gathered via our interviews with key players, and it builds on our expertise in the transport, electronics and photonics sectors.

 

This research delivers valuable insights for:

*or similar and competing sensors

 

 

 

Lidar, which stands for light detection and ranging, is a ranging technique that has existed for decades, shortly after the invention of laser. Lidar has already been used in applications such as mapping, surveying, military, archaeology, agriculture, and geology. The invention of beam steering technologies enables lidar to reach 3D space for extended use scenarios.

 

3D lidar is an optical perception technology that enables machines to see the world, make decisions and navigate. At present, machines using lidar range from small service robots to large autonomous vehicles. The rapidly evolving lidar technologies and markets leave many uncertain questions to answer. The technology landscape is cluttered with numerous options for every component in a lidar system. IDTechEx identified four important technology choices that every lidar player and lidar user must make: measurement process, laser, beam steering mechanism, and photodetector. The beam steering mechanism is the most complicated and critical choice, while the emitter and receiver play an important role in future lidar cost reduction and further performance enhancement.

 

 

With numerous technological choices for the key components and measurement methods, various technology combinations can be generated, making players working in this space distinctive to each other. Each one of the 95 players that IDTechEx is tracking claims to offer a unique, next-generation product that is superior to competing technologies.

 

However, the options are not unlimited. Certain components may work better with a particular technology, such as vertical cavity surface emitting laser (VCSEL) is a more popular choice for 3D flash lidar compared with edge emitting laser (EEL). There are also fewer common combinations such as MEMS with FMCW due to more technical challenges.

 

With the experience in laser physics, semiconductor physics, optoelectronics, in addition to experience in advising multi-billion-dollar corporations on business growth and technology strategy, IDTechEx has built expertise in transport, electronics and photonics sectors and can provide comprehensive technological analysis and benchmarking.

 

The technology choices made today will have immense consequences for performance, price, and scalability of lidar in the future. The present state of the lidar market is unsustainable because winning technologies and players will inevitably emerge, consolidating the technology and business landscapes.

 

 

As a representative company, Tesla stands by the vision-only camp, while the majority of automotive OEMs pursue sensor fusion with lidar included as their future answer. The demand of redundancy and increasing requirement for 3D information make lidar more and more attractive. The battle in automotive ADAS and the autonomous vehicle market helps to provide an opportunity for lidar to be accepted by other application markets with reducing price and increasing reliability. The efforts through the lidar supply chain, from materials suppliers to automotive OEMs, not only offers opportunities for conventional material and component companies, but also enables new lifestyles for the consumer with upcoming innovations.

 

 

 

IDTechEx has focused on players who position themselves as automotive Tier 2 suppliers, with a coverage of component suppliers and automotive OEMs. The report explores how innovations in lidar technology affect the growth of lidar market segments. In the technical analysis chapters, IDTechEx uses its experience in physics research to explain novel technical concepts to a non-specialist audience. Market forecasts are based on the extensive analysis of primary and secondary data, combined with careful consideration of market drivers, restraints, and key player activities. The technology adoption roadmaps for six types of lidar in four types of level 3+ autonomous vehicles are evaluated to provide a balanced outlook on market opportunities.

 

IDTechEx's model of the lidar market considers how the following variables evolve during the forecast period for each beam steering technology segment: technology readiness level of lidar, lidar unit price, vehicle production volume; autonomous vehicle technology adoption; lidar technology adoption; lidar market share per autonomous vehicle segment.

 

Our report answers important questions such as:

 

The global market for 3D lidar in automotive will grow to US$8.4 billion by 2033.

 

 

Technology analysis & trends

Market Analysis & Forecasts:

Supply chain

Player analysis

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