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Electric Buses 2020-2030: 2nd Edition

Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Company Assessment


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For ten years, our electric bus report has been the reference document of the industry. We have never rewritten it twice in one year but very major developments have now led us to do just that. This second edition of "Electric Buses 2020-2030" interprets many dramatic developments.
 
Busworld has taken place in Belgium with 37,500 delegates left in no doubt that several of the giants of the industry are still primarily promoting diesel buses and rapidly losing share as a consequence. There was a bus that parked sideways and two Chinese robot shuttles - pure electric of course. Some buses had four wheel vectored traction and the conference reported nearly half of electric bus deployments now employ gantry charging. Our interviews revealed some gantry charging leading to batteries of one quarter the cost and size. This new edition majors on these new developments including successful sales of Chinese robot shuttles, buses sold with in-wheel motors and Solaris and the Chinese rapidly gaining market share by selling latest technology, value engineered.
 
The new edition has much more besides as even the traditional motor and other parts suppliers are now being rapidly usurped. New global interviews and study uniquely analyse the changing situation
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1.Purpose of this report
1.2.Why adopt buses?
1.3.Why buy a pure electric bus?
1.4.Challenges
1.5.Types of bus currently on sale
1.6.Primary conclusions: bus statistics and markets by region
1.6.1.Global and regional sales trends: overview
1.6.2.Bus population worldwide by types 2020
1.7.Drivers and timing of bus electrification
1.8.Primary conclusions: manufacturers
1.9.Primary conclusions: vested interests
1.10.Primary conclusions: technology
1.11.Electric bus leadership: focus on pure electric now but some delay and difficulty
1.11.1.Recent action and experiences
1.11.2.C40 Green and Healthy Streets Declaration tested against orders
1.12.China buses go global: cost advantages
1.13.Timelines
1.13.1.Bus technology timeline 2020-2040
1.13.2.What do latest electric bus orders tell us?
1.13.3.Predicting the electric bus killer blow of lower up-front price 2020-2040
1.14.Bus as a train
1.15.Electric bus market forecasts worldwide
1.15.1.Electric bus market forecast 2019-2030 number (thousand)
1.15.2.Electric bus market forecast 2019-2030 unit price $k
1.15.3.Electric bus market forecast 2019-2030 $ billion market value
1.15.4.Pure electric bus number by region 2030
1.16.Background statistics
1.16.1.Global automotive production 2000-2018
1.17.The German bus industry is being destroyed
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Electric buses today
2.1.1.Background statistics and initiatives
2.1.2.Example of excellence: Hess TOSA BRT
2.1.3.MAN, Bolloré, CRRC, HIGER, Rosero contrasted
2.1.4.Mellor, eCrafter, APTIS
2.1.5.Large choice of regular sized electric buses
2.1.6.CRRC of China makes its own state-of-the-art electric bus components
2.1.7.Robot buses from China
2.2.Bus technology and component suppliers
2.2.1.Overview
2.2.2.Powertrain choices
2.2.3.Voltage trends
2.2.4.In-wheel motors
2.2.5.Batteries, axial flux and external rotor motors
2.2.6.Fuel cell and other hybrids
2.2.7.Range extenders - solar
2.2.8.Gantry charging
2.3.Cummins reinvented
2.4.Allison Transmission reinvented
2.5.How nine key enabling technologies are improving to serve the primary needs
3.CHINA ELECTRIC TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE
3.1.History of buses in China
3.2.Yutong fights BYD for global leadership
3.2.1.Yutong
3.2.2.BYD
3.2.3.BYD financials
4.INDIA TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE
4.1.Overview
4.1.1.Background: commercial vehicles
4.1.2.Electric bus overview
4.2.FAME India, Olectra-BYD, Ashok Leyland, Kinetic, TVS
5.LATIN AMERICA TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE
5.1.Latin America - large numbers
6.NORTH AMERICA TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE
6.1.USA: Unique mix
6.2.BYD, New Flyer, IndyGo, Alexander Dennis, BYD
6.3.Example of pure electric bus leadership: Proterra
7.EUROPE TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE
7.1.Overview
7.2.France
7.3.Germany compared to Poland
7.4.Netherlands
7.5.Nordics
7.6.United Kingdom
7.7.Spain and Luxembourg
8.AUTONOMOUS SHUTTLE COMPANY PROFILES
8.1.Navya
8.2.EasyMile
8.3.Autonomous shuttles' public service in Australia
8.4.2getthere
8.5.Baidu Apolong
8.6.May Mobility
8.7.Local Motors
8.8.Sensible 4
8.9.GACHA
8.10.Ohmio Automation
8.11.Yutong
9.SCHOOL BUSES
9.1.North America
9.1.1.Overview
9.1.2.School buses choking children to death, unnecessary fires
9.1.3.US school bus statistics 2018
9.1.4.Commentary
9.1.5.Autonomy needed: driver shortages and cost escalation
9.1.6.Pure electric powertrains needed: longer life, much less maintenance compared to current diesel shown below
9.1.7.US leading school bus manufacturers
9.2.China: big potential, not much happening yet
9.3.School buses: USA and China compared
9.4.School buses: V2G trials, launches and initiatives
10.FUTURE ELECTRIC BUS TECHNOLOGY
10.1.Toyota REE chassis: huge advances
10.2.Robot buses changing radically: all sizes, smart materials
10.2.1.NTU Singapore and Volvo: first full size, autonomous electric bus
10.2.2.Future robot shuttle
10.2.3.Protean 360 degree wheel: sideways parking for robot vehicles
10.2.4.Multifunctional smart windows coming for robot vehicles
10.2.5.Triple action window by NREL
10.2.6.Airport shuttle bus thin-film PV roof system
10.2.7.IBM Olli robot bus: 3D printed multifunctional
10.3.Self-healing supercapacitor bodywork, supercapacitor buses, future battery
10.3.1.Self healing supercapacitor body
10.3.2.Traction supercapacitors in buses
10.3.3.Battery type, performance, future
10.4.Autonomy technology and hardware trends
10.4.1.Hardware
10.4.2.Hardware replaced by software & content
10.5.Charger standardisation: bus/truck commonality
10.6.Energy Independent Electric Vehicles EIEV
10.6.1.Disruptive
10.6.2.Towards energy independence: increasing bus range
10.6.3.Energy independent electric bus: NFH-H microbus China
10.6.4.Energy positive buses will come
11.90 HYBRID BUS MANUFACTURERS
12.120 PURE ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS, RETROFITTERS, DESIGNERS
 

Report Statistics

Slides 207
Forecasts to 2030
 
 
 
 

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