The Quantum Technology Market: Here Today, Growth Tomorrow

The quantum technology market encompasses an exciting range of emerging products and services. New quantum computers, quantum sensors, and quantum communications tools hold promise to revolutionize an array of industries, from chemical and utilities to healthcare and even consumer electronics.

 

In fact, in some instances, quantum technologies not only 'hold promise' but are already here - generating revenue and disrupting established markets. Yet for other sub-sectors, mass adoption isn't anticipated to arrive for many years. In this article, IDTechEx interrogates the state of the quantum technology market today, but then, crucially, how it is expected to evolve for growth across the next ten years.

 

IDTechEx offers an extensive research portfolio of reports spanning the quantum technology market, offering critical market intelligence and ten-year forecasts. More details on the operating principles of quantum computers, sensors, and communications hardware, alongside key applications, can be found at www.IDTechEx.com/Research/Quantum.

 

 

Despite its regular inclusion in the deep-tech category, in many ways, quantum technology research is incredibly established. Early breakthroughs in academic understanding of nano-scale physics date back to the late 1800s. Moreover, some early pieces of quantum kit like atomic clocks and superconducting quantum interference devices (a form of magnetic field sensor) were developed as early as the 1950s and 1960s.

 

 

Following the progression from breakthroughs in quantum theory and experimental realization in the 20th century, in more recent years, the distinction between solutions developed specifically for quantum computing, quantum sensing, and quantum communications has become clearer. United in their use of quantum phenomena to offer highly differentiated performance properties but much more separate in terms of applications, commercial readiness, and medium-term market outlook.

 

 

 

So, given its relatively long history, why so much hype about quantum technology today? In short - investment directed towards commercializing quantum technology has intensified. As the technology readiness level of quantum technologies has increased, so has government interest in leveraging them to boost local economies and bolster national security. This has led to the deployment of many 'quantum national strategies' worldwide. It is estimated that over US$35B in public funding has now been committed towards quantum technology research and development.

 

 

Private investment has also served to help quantum technology bridge the chasm between lab and commercialization, with many start-ups across the quantum computing, sensing, and communications landscape now scaling up their operations using hundreds of millions of dollars in venture funding. The competition between these smaller players and much larger companies who have also moved to enter the space is also facilitating growth and innovation.

 

All of this without mentioning the specific public interest in quantum computers. Of all the technologies being developed, it is surely the emergence of these mysterious machines that has been the greatest fuel for the quantum hype fire.

 

 

The question many stakeholders in quantum technology are asking now is typically some combination of 'so what', 'when', and 'who'. IDTechEx's extensive quantum technology research seeks to answer these questions in more depth. This section shows three key insights from this research regarding what the next ten years will likely hold.

 

 

Over the years, there have regularly been concerns about the inevitability of an oncoming 'quantum talent crisis'. If the industry is to grow to the scale that many expect, there is a huge gap to fill in terms of quantum engineers, algorithm developers, physicists, lawyers, and more. From IDTechEx's perspective, numerous companies have reported to us that quantum talent is already mounting a challenge. Some are finding that their key personnel are being poached by rivals, while others find individuals with the expertise they need are few and far between.

 

In the years ahead, efforts to 'bolster the quantum talent pipeline' are destined to continue. IDTechEx has identified five interrelated approaches to achieving this, as well as some notable companies and instructions already engaged in this mission.

 

 

 

It can be argued that one of the biggest factors limiting the growth of the quantum technology market today is the lack of scalable manufacturing approaches.

 

This certainly applies to quantum computing, where scaling up hardware (e.g., to include greater qubit numbers) while maintaining low loss is a ubiquitous problem across the major modalities (including superconducting, trapped-ion, neutral atom, photonic, silicon spin, diamond, and more).

 

Similarly, quantum sensors, which can offer order of magnitude improvements in sensitivity, are yet to be easily fabricated in small size, weight, and power (SWAP) packages. Without scalable manufacturing solutions, higher volume markets for quantum sensors, such as automotive, will continue to depend on classical sensor solutions.

 

Established sensor manufacturers are already beginning to engage with quantum sensor development, while governments are directing funding toward key component development and fostering supply chains. As a result, the next decade will surely see an increased focus on scalable manufacturing solutions for quantum technology products. Moreover, it is likely that the required intellectual property and state-of-the-art facilities will also increase in value. The quantum factory may be less glamorous than the image of quantum computing's chandeliers - but it will certainly be more pivotal in accelerating the answer to 'when' quantum technology will have a real-world impact.

 

 

With successful commercialization comes further industry interrogation into where the most value is being captured. Until now, surprisingly, few across the ecosystem have meaningfully grappled with this challenge. For example, in the case of quantum computing, hardware developers largely depend on partnerships with known cloud services to gain exposure and reduce system costs. The compromise they, therefore, face is bargaining power. However, as on-premises quantum computing adoption grows in popularity, albeit largely a 'by research for research' market for now, datacenters may have to instead pay the prices set by the developers.

 

For now, end-users and developers need one another to be successful. We are largely still in the era of special deals for early adopters utilizing the tech to build use-cases and, as such, confidence in revenue-generating potential. However, as quantum technology matures and the awareness of its capability grows, value capture will likely rise on the agenda of many more players within the ecosystem.

 

 

To summarize, IDTechEx expects to see the quantum talent line bolstered, scalable manufacturing solutions develop, and value capture dynamics start to shift. This reflects an overall positive outlook for the quantum technology market ahead. Yet, as for how fast we are approaching a significant inflection in growth, patience is still required. If anything, the next decade will lay the groundwork for a true quantum revolution in society in the late 2030s.

 

It is in the twenty-year time frame that comparing where quantum started to where it could go truly becomes compelling. Picture autonomous vehicles no longer dependent on GPS, human machine interfaces and medical devices which use the tiny magnetic fields produced by our bodies, communication networks that are entirely un-hackable, and quantum computers that solve problems today's supercomputers would take millennia to tackle.

 

More information about technologies, players, and trends related to quantum technologies can be found in IDTechEx's Quantum Technology Market report - alongside analysis of other material innovations, including superconductors, silicon photonics, alkali vapors, and more. For more in-depth forecasting on specific verticals of the quantum technology market, see IDTechEx's dedicated reports on Quantum Computing, Quantum Sensing, and Quantum Communications. Downloadable sample pages are available for all IDTechEx reports.

This article is from "Technology Innovations Outlook 2025-2035", a complimentary collection of insights from industry experts highlighting key technology innovation trends shaping the next decade. You can download the full collection here.

IDTechEx provides trusted independent research on emerging technologies and their markets. Since 1999, we have been helping our clients to understand new technologies, their supply chains, market requirements, opportunities and forecasts. For more information, contact research@IDTechEx.com or visit www.IDTechEx.com.