Electric Vehicles: The Melodrama Of The Coming 20 Years (Electric Vehicles: Everything is Changing. USA 2016)

On IDTechEx analysis, the next twenty years will see massive bankruptcies in the automotive sector and multi-billion dollar businesses rapidly created making new types of vehicle and component. The very definition of vehicle and electric vehicle will be redefined. Most conventional four wheel vehicles will become illegal under 2025 and 2030 carbon dioxide emissions legislation. This and the race for better fuel economy and performance will make most manufacturers with conventional production lines adapt them to make 48V mild hybrids as the easiest and lowest cost way of staying legal. Those that jump the gun and go 48V hybrid from 2017 onwards will delight their customers with better performance and fuel economy. Those that are first to abandon the 12V lead acid battery and go entirely 48V lithium-ion may gain advantage. B category cars and below may conform without 48V systems or they may use them with low cost advanced lead-acid 48V batteries but the anti-lead movement is growing. Local emission constraints can only get tougher.

There is a rapid move to two or more motors or motor generators in vehicles for many good reasons. The profusion of power electronics for these and for new multiple regeneration, multiple harvesting and multiple vehicle inputs and outputs will make it more important and a far greater percentage of the cost than the currently hyped autonomy systems. However, it will involve a lot of SiC, GaN, maybe supercapacitor variants, GaN photovoltaics, triboelectrics and so on. Eventually, post-lithium batteries will find market success, enabling long haul pure electric flight.

Components for all vehicles will merge as electric/electronic/ mechanical "structural electronics" as they become a materials play. However, the end game is no longer externally charged electric vehicles: it is energy independent electric vehicles. And what about the very definition of electric vehicle? Dyson, the leading vacuum cleaner manufacturer with a robot version that is an electric vehicle has bought an advanced lithium battery company to go into electric cars. Those in cars are going into aircraft: later personal versions of aircraft will partly replace cars. Mobile robotics, manned electric aircraft, drones, autonomous underwater vehicles .....it is all one business now but everything - yes - everything about them is changing. We give some predictions of the profound impact on individuals, companies and countries in the two decades ahead.

Dr Peter Harrop PhD, FIEE is Chairman of IDTechEx Ltd. He was previously Director of Technology of Plessey Capacitors Scotland and Chief Executive of Mars Electronics, a start-up he took to $260 million gross sales value with highly automated factories built in US and UK, without acquisitions. He was a board member of $1.5 bn Mars UK, a division of Mars Inc. Mars Electronics was sold for $500 million after he left, generating an excellent return.

 

He has been Chairman of 15 high tech companies over a period of years including turnrounds on behalf of venture capitalists such as Computer Security International. The largest was Pinacl plc in Wales, made profitable and grown to $100 million in fiber optic manufacture and multimillion dollar structural networks.

 

Peter lectures and consults internationally on electric vehicles, energy storage, energy harvesting and regeneration. He writes a minimum of five openly published techno-marketing reports yearly at IDTechEx. p.harrop@idtechex.com

IDTechEx provides independent market research, business intelligence and events on emerging technologies to companies across the value chain. Our clients use our insights to help make strategic business decisions and grow their organizations.

 

IDTechEx business and technology experts provide international perspective in a diverse range of emerging technologies including 3D printing, electric vehicles, energy harvesting, energy storage, life sciences, printed electronics, IoT and many other topics.

 

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