Automotive Radar 2022-2042: IDTechEx

Radar sales to rocket 5-fold by 2035 as autonomous vehicle markets emerge

Automotive Radar 2022-2042

Peak car, levels of autonomy, radar key players, short range (SRR), medium range (MRR) and long range radars (LRR), market shares, start-ups, ADAS adoption, radar frequencies, semiconductors for radar, materials for radar.


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The Importance of Radar
 
Over the past 20 years radar has carved out a firm foothold as a primary automotive sensor. When it first appeared in the market it was reserved for luxury vehicles as a gadget. Nowadays it has become synonymous with safety thanks to the critical ADAS features it enables. Moreover, as the automotive industry looks to further automate vehicles, its strengths over other sensor types makes it a primary candidate to dominate the sensor market. IDTechEx found in this report that the automotive radar market is going to grow rapidly and sustainably at 14% CAGR as autonomous technologies take off and achieve widespread penetration.
 
Compared to other automotive sensors, radar can bring some key sensing benefits to a vehicle. Radars operate at cm to mm wavelengths, which makes them very robust against adverse weather such as fog, rain, dust etc. Other strengths include simultaneous measurement of range and velocity, and outstanding performance in direct sunlight. New emission patterns are unlocking further benefits, for example the digital radar being pushed by start-up Uhnder reduces interference. All these benefits are reached while maintaining a very attractive price point for automakers.
 
Source: IDTechEx
 
IDTechEx's report finds that 41% of new vehicles shipped around the world come with automatic emergency braking as a standard feature, and an additional ~15% will have it as an option. In the vast majority of cases, automatic emergency braking relies on radar's sensing capabilities. The safety benefits that this feature brings is making it increasingly mandated by safety bodies and will be one of the driving factors in the adoption of radars going forward.
 
Radar as a Key Enabler for Autonomous Vehicles
 
IDTechEx's research indicates that more than two thirds of new vehicles are available with SAE level 2 autonomous technologies. Level 3 autonomous vehicles have already hit the road in Japan and will be spreading to more markets in 2022. Level 3 autonomous vehicles overwhelmingly utilise radars, with typically one higher performance long distance radar at the front, and four short range radars providing a 360° sensing cocoon around the vehicle. The requirement of having five units per vehicle for level 3 technologies is a huge driving factor seen in the forecasts of this report.
 
Tesla is very much the exception to this rule, working towards level 3 and level 4 autonomous technologies (regulations permitting) while only utilising one radar on their more premium vehicles, and only cameras on their less expensive models. Tesla have been using a dated radar though, and as this report shows, much more advanced options are now available. Given the new performance on offer perhaps Tesla will re-consider radar in the future.
Radar Market Leaders & Competitive Landscape Analysis (Tier 1s, Tier 2s & Start-ups)
 
The report provides thorough coverage of the radar market supply chain and highlights market share and products from tier 1 radar suppliers including Bosch, Continental, Denso and Hella. Tier 2 transceivers are covered, giving details on different products and suppliers such as Infineon, NXP and STMicroelectronics. These markets are dominated by a small number of players, each with different attitudes towards emerging technologies. In the report IDTechEx has identified which relationships are likely to change and how this will impact the market shares at each level. Given the small number of players dominating, one relationship change can spark large changes in market shares.
 
The radar industry has a fair number of start-ups whose products are gaining traction, with investment pouring in from OEMs, tier 1s and other significant parties. The start-ups have multiple ways to enter the market; some players such as Arbe and Oculii are looking to supply complete radars, while others such as Uhnder, Metawave, Echodyne and Vayyar are focussing on key components.
 
Full data in report. Data sources (both): Public company financials, investor presentations, press releases and IDTechEx interviews.
Radar Performance & Technology Trends
 
Automotive suppliers are currently going through a semiconductor transition which is revolutionising the performance of radar. This report explains the knock-on effects to the packaging and size reduction of radars and how this will be a key enabling factor for further integration into vehicles. The report also explains considerations that should be made when it comes to antenna design, board integration, and materials for antennas, radio-frequency printed circuit boards (RF PCBs) and radomes.
 
Key radar performance trends are identified through the established radar market and 17 players are profiled including 9 primary interviews. Key performance metrics considered include range, field of view and angular resolution. Besides performance trends this report also gives a comprehensive overview of technology trends such as the transition from 24GHz to 77GHz, the emergence of high channel count transceivers and the move from SiGE BiCMOS based transceivers to Si CMOS transceivers.
 
The performance available in radar sensors is growing rapidly, over the past decade the imaging performance of radars has improved by an order of magnitude. Attributes that previously hinder radar adoption, such as poor resolution are fading, and radar is becoming a key enabling sensor for high levels of autonomy. Start-ups are starting to promise radars with resolution that can compete with LiDAR, all while maintaining long ranges and incredible robustness to adverse weather, poor lighting and interference. LiDAR prices are starting to come down and radar start-ups are starting to creep up the prices of their products, usually justified by the premium performance. While today all players say that both sensors are needed, IDTechEx expects a clash is on the horizon. Why would OEMs use both sensors if they have the same performance? Radar certainly has the head start here, already being well established in the market, and likely to see strong growth in the short term due to the boost to safety that these radars are bringing. Meanwhile, the industry is still waiting for the price reductions promised by LiDAR, and it has not seen widespread adoption yet.
 
Source: IDTechEx
Long Term 20-Year Forecasting
 
The automotive industry moves slowly. New vehicles have a typical lifespan of ~15 years, and automakers usually take around 10 years to make significant updates to their models: a long-term view of the industry is essential to predict uptake of new radar technologies.
 
Moreover, our long-term forecasts enable us to reveal the opportunities for radar with the rise of autonomous vehicles. While robotaxis are growing in maturity, they are very much still in the testing phases today. IDTechEx predicts that their emergence will have a profound impact on the automotive market, even causing a peak and decline. However, these important changes are not likely to happen for another 10-20 years. The long-term changes to the automotive market, and the resultant impact that robotaxis will have on the automotive radar market are captured by our 20-year forecasts.
 
Key Topics Covered:
 
  • Sensor suites for private level 2, 3 and 4 vehicles
  • Sensor suites for level 4 robotaxis
  • Regulatory changes and outlook that impact the emergence of automated vehicles
  • Tier 1, tier 2 and start up products and key performance metrics
  • Tier 1, tier 2 market shares, supplier relations and technology outlooks
  • Radar performance trends
  • Radar technology overviews including waveforms, antennas, frequency, radomes.
  • Semiconductor changes, outlook and opportunities.
  • Materials for radar
  • Regional breakdowns in analysis and forecasts: US, China, Europe, RoW
  • Forecasts broken down by radar type, frequency, number of virtual channels, transceiver semiconductor.
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Radars Are Now Common on Private Vehicles
1.2.Functions of Autonomous Driving at Different Levels
1.3.Future Vehicles and Radar
1.4.Adoption of ADAS
1.5.Radar Has a Key Place in Automotive Sensors
1.6.Front Radar Applications
1.7.The Role of Side Radars
1.8.Radar Performance Trends
1.9.Radar Trilemma
1.10.Radar Anatomy
1.11.Automotive Radars: Frequency Trends
1.12.Trends in Transceivers
1.13.Multiple Inputs, Multiple Outputs
1.14.Radar Board Trends
1.15.Radar Suppliers: Tier 1s and Start Ups
1.16.Leading players - tier 1 suppliers
1.17.Transceiver suppliers
1.18.Supply chain
1.19.Autonomy Automotive Leaders
1.20.Car Sales Forecast Broken Down by SAE Level
1.21.Radar Unit Sales by Application Forecast 2015-2042
1.22.Radar Revenue by Region Forecast 2015-2042
1.23.Radar Frequency Forecast 2015-2042
1.24.Radar Semiconductor Forecast 2015-2042
1.25.Radar Forecast by No. Virtual Channels 2015-2042
1.26.Transceiver Demand for Radar Forecast 2015-2042
1.27.Materials for Radar Forecast 2015-2042
1.28.17 IDTechEx Portal Profiles
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Overview
2.1.1.Radar
2.1.2.Typical Sensor Suite for Autonomous Cars
2.1.3.Sensors and their Purpose
2.1.4.Where does Radar Sit in the Sensor Trifactor
2.1.5.Radar - Radio Detection And Ranging
2.1.6.Functions of Autonomous Driving at Different Levels
2.1.7.Adoption of ADAS
2.1.8.SAE Levels of Automation in Cars
2.1.9.Why Automate Cars?
2.1.10.Privately Owned Autonomous Vehicles
2.1.11.Safety Mandated Features Driving Wider Radar Adoption.
2.1.12.The Impact of COVID-19
2.1.13.Evolution of Sensor Suite from Level 1 to Level 4
2.1.14.Quantity per car - Level 2
2.1.15.Sensors per vehicle: level 3 and above
2.1.16.Front Radar Applications
2.1.17.Side Radars
2.1.18.No More Medium Range Radar (MRR)
2.1.19.Occupant Detection
2.1.20.Radar Anatomy
2.1.21.Radar Key Components
2.1.22.Primary Radar Components - The Antenna
2.1.23.Primary Radar Components - the RF Transceiver
2.1.24.Primary Radar Components - MCU
2.1.25.Primary Radar Components - Frequency
2.2.Regulatory & Legislative Progress Enabling Autonomy Adoption
2.2.1.EU Mandating Level 2 Autonomy from July 2022
2.2.2.Privately Owned Autonomous Vehicles
2.2.3.Legislation and Autonomy
2.2.4.Level 3, Legislation, UK, Europe and Japan
2.2.5.Level 3, Legislation, UK, Europe and Japan
2.2.6.The European Commission's Roadmap to Autonomy
2.2.7.Level 3, Legislation, US
2.2.8.Level 3, Legislation, China
2.2.9.The Autonomous Legal Race
2.3.Example Sensor Suites
2.3.1.Emerging Level 2+ Terminology.
2.3.2.Sensor Suite Disclaimer
2.4.Privately Owned Vehicles
2.4.1.Audi A8 - Sensor suite
2.4.2.Honda Legend - Sensor suite
2.4.3.Tesla Autopilot - Sensor Suite
2.4.4.Tesla's Relationship with Sensors
2.4.5.Cadillac Escalade - Sensor suite
2.4.6.Mercedes S-class - Sensor Suite
2.4.7.BMW iX - Sensor Suite.
2.4.8.Volkswagen ID.Buzz - Sensor Suite
2.4.9.Lexus LS and Toyota Mirai
2.4.10.Nissan ProPilot 2.0 - Sensor Suite
2.4.11.PSA's self driving sensor suite
2.4.12.Arcfox Alpha S - Sensor suite
2.4.13.Xpeng P5 - Sensor suite
2.4.14.BYD Han - Sensor suite
2.4.15.Geely Xing Yue L - Sensor suite
2.4.16.Changan UNI-T - Sensor suite
2.4.17.Autonomy Automotive Leaders
2.4.18.Leaders
2.4.19.Sensor suit meta-data
2.5.Mobility as a Service (MaaS)
2.5.1.Waymo Sensor Suite
2.5.2.Cruise Sensor Suite.
2.5.3.AutoX Sensor Suite
2.5.4.Baidu/Apollo Sensor Suite
2.5.5.Pony.ai Sensor Suite
2.5.6.WeRide Sensor Suite
2.5.7.DiDi Sensor Suite
2.5.8.Aurora Sensor Suite
2.5.9.Zoox Sensor Suite
2.5.10.Motional & Aptiv Sensor Suite
2.5.11.MaaS Sensor Analysis
2.5.12.MaaS Sensor Suite Analysis.
2.6.ADAS Control Units
2.6.1.ADAS Control units, Distributed vs Centralised
2.6.2.Distributed Examples - Radar + ACC ECU
2.6.3.Distributed Example - Camera + Lane Departure ECU
2.6.4.Distributed ADAS from Tier 1 perspective
2.6.5.Quantity per car
2.6.6.Leading players
2.6.7.Connectivity info - radar
2.6.8.Connectivity info - ADAS controller
3.TIER 1 RADARS, START-UP RADARS & TIER 2 TRANSCEIVERS
3.1.Overview
3.1.1.Radar Key Performance Indicators
3.1.2.Texas Instruments - CMOS Transceiver with AOP
3.1.3.Texas Instruments Range of Integration
3.1.4.NXP - CMOS Transceiver
3.1.5.STMicroelectronics - SiGe Transceiver
3.1.6.Infineon - SiGe Transceiver, CMOS coming
3.1.7.Analogue Devices
3.1.8.Global Foundries - CMOS Partnership with Bosch
3.1.9.Continental ARS540 - Product
3.1.10.Continental
3.1.11.Bosch
3.1.12.Denso
3.1.13.Toyota moving away from Denso to ZF/Mobileye
3.1.14.Hella
3.1.15.ZF - Future
3.1.16.Magna fails to acquire Veoneer, But Supplies Next Gen. Radar to Fisker
3.1.17.Other Tier 1s
3.1.18.Tier 1 Leaders and Laggards
3.1.19.Mobileye
3.1.20.Oculii
3.1.21.Oculii and its Investors
3.1.22.Arbe
3.1.23.Arbe and its Investors
3.1.24.Metawave
3.1.25.Metawave and its Investors
3.1.26.Zadar
3.1.27.Smart Radar System (SRS)
3.1.28.Vayyar - Chip Manufacturer
3.1.29.Lunewave - Chip Manufacturer
3.1.30.Others
3.1.31.Key Player Revenues and Key Start Up Fundings
3.1.32.Supply Chain Changes
3.1.33.Financial Void and Massive Hurdles
4.BROAD TRENDS IN RADAR
4.1.Overview
4.1.1.IDTechEx Radar Trends Primary Research Method
4.1.2.Radar Trends: Volume and Footprint
4.1.3.Radar Trends: Packaging and Performance
4.1.4.Radar Trends: Increasing Range
4.1.5.Radar Trends: Field of View
4.1.6.Radar Trends: Angular Resolution (lower is better)
4.1.7.Radar Trends: Virtual Channel Count
4.1.8.Radar Trends: Virtual Channels and Resolution
4.1.9.Radars Limited Resolution
4.1.10.Two Approaches to Larger Channel Counts
4.1.11.Board Trends
4.1.12.Radar Trilemma
4.2.Radar in Localisation
4.2.1.Localisation
4.2.2.What is Localisation?
4.2.3.Localization: Absolute vs Relative
4.2.4.Radar Mapping
4.2.5.Radar Localisation: Navtech
4.2.6.Radar Localisation: GPR (previously WaveSense)
4.3.Waveforms and MIMO
4.3.1.Introduction to Waveforms
4.3.2.Typical performance using FMCW (single Tx/Rx)
4.3.3.Typical performance using FMCW (single Tx/Rx)
4.3.4.Multiple Inputs, Multiple Outputs
4.3.5.Scaling up of MIMO
4.3.6.Oculii
4.3.7.Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing
4.3.8.Multiple Frequency Shift Key
4.3.9.Random/Noise/Digital Code Modulation
4.3.10.Unhder - Chip Developer
4.4.Frequency trends
4.4.1.Which Way is Frequency Going?
4.4.2.Applications of different frequencies.
4.4.3.Applications of different frequencies
4.4.4.Automotive Radars: Frequency Trends
4.4.5.Radar: Which Parameters Limit the Achievable KPIs
4.4.6.The significance of frequency and angular resolution
4.4.7.Impact of Frequency and Bandwidth on Angular Resolution
4.4.8.Packaging Benefits
4.4.9.Ranging
4.4.10.Surface Ice Detection
4.4.11.A Future Generation Radar?
4.4.12.Adoption Path of High Frequency Radars
4.4.13.Challenges and Hurdles for High Frequency Radar
4.4.14.Regulation
4.5.Transceivers, Semiconductors and Cascading
4.5.1.The trend towards smaller transistors.
4.5.2.Transceivers Semiconductor Trends: Power and Noise
4.5.3.Transceivers Semiconductor Trends: Virtual Channels
4.5.4.SiGe BiCMOS
4.5.5.CMOS
4.5.6.FD-SOI
4.5.7.The Future
4.5.8.Timeline
4.5.9.Radar Players and Technologies
4.6.Key properties of semiconductors utilized in RF front end (RFFE) in 5G applications
4.6.1.Key semiconductor properties
4.7.Choice of semiconductor for amplifiers in different types of base stations
4.7.1.Power vs frequency map of power amplifier technologies
4.7.2.The choice of the semiconductor technology for power amplifiers
4.7.3.GaN to win in sub-6 GHz 5G (for macro and microcell (> 5W))
4.8.Company profiles of RF amplifiers suppliers
4.8.1.Skyworks Solutions
4.8.2.Ampleon
4.8.3.Analog Devices
4.8.4.Cree-Wolfspeed
4.8.5.Wolfspeed GaN-on-SiC adoption
4.8.6.Infineon
4.8.7.MACOM
4.8.8.Mitsubishi Electric
4.8.9.Mitsubishi Electric
4.8.10.Northrop Grumman
4.8.11.NXP Semiconductor
4.8.12.Qorvo
4.8.13.Qorvo sub-6 GHz products
4.8.14.Qorvo mmWave products
4.8.15.RFHIC
4.8.16.Sumitomo Electric
4.9.Radomes, Antennas, Materials and Board Trends.
4.9.1.Importance of the Radome
4.9.2.Radome and range
4.9.3.Ideal Radome Properties
4.9.4.Radome Shape Considerations
4.9.5.Preperm
4.9.6.DuPont - Crastin & Laird (a DuPont company)
4.9.7.Radar Aesthetics, Form and Function
4.9.8.Other material considerations
4.9.9.Key Material Suppliers
4.9.10.Dielectric constant: benchmarking different substrate technologies
4.9.11.Dielectric constant: stability vs frequency for different organic substrates (PI, PTFE, LCP, thermosets, etc.)
4.9.12.Dielectric constant: stability vs frequency for different inorganic substrates (LTCC, glass)
4.9.13.Loss tangent: benchmarking different substrate technologies
4.9.14.Loss tangent: stability vs frequency for different substrates
4.9.15.Dielectric constant and loss tangent stability: behaviour at mmwave frequencies and higher
4.9.16.Temperature stability of dielectric constant: benchmarking organic substrates
4.9.17.Moisture uptake: benchmarking different substrate technologies
4.9.18.Antenna Design
4.9.19.Patch Array Design
4.9.20.Patch Array in Practice
4.9.21.Phased Array Antennas
4.9.22.Metawave - analogue beamforming/beam steering
4.9.23.Echodyne
4.9.24.Lunewave - 3D printed antenna
4.9.25.Antenna Miniaturisation
4.9.26.Board Trends
5.RADAR MARKET, SUPPLIERS, SHARES, STRUCTURE, CHANGES
5.1.Availability of ADAS
5.2.Adoption of ADAS Driving Radar Growth
5.3.Leading players - tier 1 suppliers
5.4.Side and Front Radar Shares
5.5.Leading Tier 1s by Revenue
5.6.Geographical Market Share
5.7.Transceiver suppliers
5.8.Supplier relations (transceivers)
5.9.Mixed supply chain
5.10.Consolidation of Tier 2 products
5.11.Emerging players/Start ups
6.FORECASTS
6.1.MaaS market entry by region
6.2.Method: Growth seed and addressable market
6.3.Global MaaS adoption forecast 2022-2042
6.4.Car Sales Forecast 2015-2042, Peak Car
6.5.Car Sales by Region Forecast 2015-2042
6.6.Forecasting adoption of level 3 and level 4 technology
6.7.Car Sales Forecast by SAE Level, 2015-2042
6.8.Car Sales Forecast by SAE Level, 2022-2042
6.9.Forecasting Method and Assumptions
6.10.Radar Unit Sales by Application Forecast 2015-2042
6.11.Radar Revenue by Application Forecast 2017-2042
6.12.Radar Revenue by Region Forecast 2015-2042
6.13.Radar Frequency Forecast 2015-2042
6.14.Radar Semiconductor Forecast 2015-2042
6.15.Transceiver Virtual Channel Forecast 2015-2042
6.16.Radar Forecast by No. Virtual Channels 2015-2042
6.17.Transceiver Demand for Radar Forecast Method
6.18.Transceiver Demand for Radar Forecast 2015-2042
6.19.Materials for Radar Forecast Method
6.20.Materials for Radar Forecast 2015-2042
 

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报告统计信息

幻灯片 296
预测 2042
已发表 Nov 2021
ISBN 9781913899820
 

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