2025年-2035年固定式储能电池：市场、预测、参与者和技术

本报告提供以下信息：

• 电池储能技术、趋势和比较，包括锂离子电池、钠离子电池（Na-ion）、氧化还原流电池（RFB）、金属空气电池、铅酸电池、热电池。提供技术的优缺点。进一步分析和讨论锂离子电池（LFP、NMC）化学趋势、正极材料价格趋势和长时储能（LDES）。

• 对"零退化"储能系统（BESS）的关键讨论和分析，例如CATL TENER 6.25 MWh储能系统。

• 深入探讨锂离子储能系统的安全性，包括储能系统火灾事件的案例研究、电池故障和热失控的根本原因解释、化学成分和形状对储能系统安全性的影响、钠离子电池的安全性、减轻电池火灾、爆炸和危险事件的系统和材料，包括主要储能系统集成商的示例。额外讨论电池火灾测试和法规，以及电池安全测试改革的潜在需求。

• 进一步分析和讨论储能系统的热管理；强制空气冷却与液体冷却，该领域的技术和参与者，优缺点——成本、能量密度、噪音、操作和维护、安装时间等。

• 解释和讨论前置电表和后置电表应用中的储能系统，并对套利波动和负电价进行评论。

• 全面覆盖电池储能整个价值链中从制造、项目开发到电池运营的商业模式和收入来源。解释通过价格套利、提供辅助服务和赢得容量市场合同获得的收入。讨论其他收入生成机制，例如购电协议（PPA）、灵活性优化PPA、收入叠加、虚拟电厂（VPP）等。

• 对全球住宅电池储能市场进行详细分析和讨论。包括主要参与者活动的最新动态、市场驱动因素、2016-2035年期间按国家划分的住宅电池储能市场预测。对2023年和2022年按地区安装的住宅电池储能进行详细数据分析，按收入生成和部署的住宅储能系统（GWh）划分的市场份额，以及住宅电池储能化学趋势。收集了约50家参与者技术的数据分析，包括电池容量、设计模块化、能量密度、循环寿命和保修。

• 对部署公用事业规模（FTM）和商业及工业规模（C&I）锂离子储能系统的参与者进行全面和详细的分析，即锂离子储能系统集成商、储能系统制造商和锂离子电池供应商。对锂离子储能系统成本、集成商在2021-2023年安装的储能系统（GWh）数量、主要储能系统集成商未来项目管道按GWh、年份和地区划分的关键分析，参与者活动和市场动态趋势。

• 领先的锂离子储能系统制造商的电网规模技术基准、业务发展和主要参与者活动，包括储能项目、制造发展、电池供应商、客户、合作伙伴和战略决策。

• 对全球储能市场领先国家的区域分析，包括中国、美国、英国、意大利、德国、澳大利亚、印度、智利，以及韩国、日本和非洲。包括详细覆盖、讨论和分析能源供应结构、锂离子电池在长时储能（LDES）中的出现、区域政策发展和静态电池储能激励措施（例如《通胀削减法案》）、招标公告、计划、可再生能源（RES）和电池及能源储存目标、终端用户电力成本、容量市场和降额因素，以及显著的GWh级储能项目。

• 详细的10年锂离子储能系统市场预测，按国家（GWh）、按部门（电网规模、商业及工业、住宅）和前置电表与后置电表划分，以及2016-2035年期间的价值（十亿美元）。还提供2016-2035年期间的锂离子储能系统化学展望。

• 超过20家公司的简介，包括锂离子储能系统集成商和制造商，以及锂离子电池供应商。

 

本报告涵盖的主要内容：

• 执行摘要

• 介绍

• 电池储能技术

• 锂离子储能系统的安全性和热管理

• 静态储能的驱动因素、商业模式和收入来源

• 住宅电池储能市场和技术

• 前置电表和商业及工业储能系统市场

• 区域分析：中国、美国、英国、意大利、德国、澳大利亚、印度、智利、韩国、日本、非洲

• 10年锂离子储能系统市场预测，按国家、部门（电网规模、商业及工业、住宅）和价值（十亿美元）

• 超过20家公司简介

 

Battery demand for stationary energy storage (ES) is set to grow as the volume of renewable energy sources (RES) penetrating electricity grids increases. Governments and states are also announcing incentives and schemes, and implementing targets, to promote the growth of battery storage. IDTechEx forecasts that by 2035, the Li-ion battery energy storage system (BESS) market will reach US$109B in value, and that by 2035, over 4.4 TWh of Li-ion BESS will be installed cumulatively worldwide.

Li-ion batteries (LIBs) are the dominant BESS technology in the current market, accounting for over 90% of global installations of electrochemical ES. Their high performance and relatively fast cost reductions over the past decade have been key to their successful growth. This has been facilitated by increasing demand for LIBs in the electric vehicles (EV) sector. To illustrate this, Li-ion battery demand across EV, energy storage system (ESS), and consumer electronics sectors reached ~960 GWh in 2023; a significant increase from ~400 GWh in 2021. Indeed, the EV sector still dominates total demand, but Li-ion demand for ESS has continued to grow in volume, and increased its share of demand by sector, up to 10% in 2023.

 

 

Other BESS technologies in future could look to take increasing market share from Li-ion BESS. Potential future material constraints for LIBs could make other BESS technologies, which use more widely abundant materials, more cost competitive. This could include Na-ion batteries, redox flow batteries (RFB), metal-air batteries, thermal batteries, etc. Moreover, some of these technologies can benefit from decoupled energy and power, which means that at longer durations of storage, on a $/kWh basis, they could promise lower costs than Li-ion. However, and ultimately, IDTechEx expect LIBs to continue dominating the stationary BESS market in the medium term. Other potential benefits of these alternative BESS technologies could include more easily recyclable materials, and the omission of flammable electrolytes, bringing safety advantages.

 

Li-ion BESS safety remains a key area of importance in the market. Root causes of BESS failure can be due to poor installations, design, manufacturing, or the BESS performing outside of its specifications. LFP has often also been regarded as a safer chemistry than NMC, though this is not always clear-cut. LFP cells generally have greater thermal stability and thus lower risk of entering thermal runaway, though they pose a greater hazardous risk once they enter thermal runaway. Different materials and sub-systems can be implemented to reduce risk of thermal runaway, or the spreading of fires in the case of a hazardous event occurring. However, BESS safety remains an area for innovation. This report provides discussion and analysis on root causes of BESS failures, thermal runaway and the impact of cell chemistry and form factor, players' safety designs, thermal management technologies (i.e., forced air versus liquid cooling) and players, battery fire tests and regulations.

 

As well as potentially facilitating safer systems, LFP cells also facilitate Li-ion BESS with lower costs and longer cycle life. LFP is now the dominant chemistry in the Li-ion BESS market for these reasons. However, BESS using LFP cells exhibit lower system-level energy densities than those using NMC cells. To counter this effect, many Chinese players have launched BESS technologies using larger cell formats, giving rise to 'containerized' BESS with 5 MWh capacities or greater. Larger cells typically exhibit higher energy densities, and utilize more of the space within BESS containers, increasing the system-level volumetric energy density. This therefore results in fewer BESS being needed for a given project capacity, meaning projects can be installed over smaller spatial footprints (kWh/m²), and with reduced installation times and project costs. While energy density is not as crucial in the grid-scale BESS sector as it is in the EV sector, the shift to and growing dominance of LFP will mean that offering LFP BESS with higher energy densities will be one of the key methods for BESS integrators to differentiate themselves. This IDTechEx report provides granular analysis on Li-ion BESS technology trends and benchmarks key BESS manufacturers' Li-ion technologies.

 

As well as Chinese players launching BESS with greater energy densities, several have also shown increasing signs of participating more in overseas markets. The price war on Li-ion BESS in China has made it increasingly difficult for these players to offer BESS at costs low enough to remain competitive, yet profitable. Therefore, integrators in other markets are likely to expect increasing competition from Chinese players. However, some players in the US are starting to announce plans to construct cell manufacturing and BESS manufacturing facilities in the US to take advantage of tax credits being introduced under the US Inflation Reduction Act. Ultimately, building up of localized supply chains should help US BESS manufacturers to reduce their production costs, allowing them to provide systems at lower and more competitive costs. This IDTechEx report provides a deep dive into Li-ion BESS integrators' projects, BESS installation volumes, project pipelines, supply and strategic agreements, and insights to drivers and dynamics in grid-scale and residential BESS markets.

 

China and the US remain global leaders, responsible for a combined 71% of the 92.3 GWh of global Li-ion BESS deployments made in 2023, acting as a key reason for the 4x growth compared to global deployments made in 2021. However, other countries are expected to show strong growth over the next decade, including the UK, Italy, Germany, Australia, Italy, and Chile. Incentives and schemes such as the Capacity Investment Scheme in Australia, and Viability Gap Funding to be provided for up to 4 GWh of BESS deployment in India will be key in driving growth in these countries. This IDTechEx report provides granular analysis and discussion on various incentives, schemes and renewables and battery storage targets being announced by governments in key countries.

 

 

This IDTechEx report also provides 10-year market forecasts on the Li-ion BESS market for the period 2016 - 2035, in both capacity (GWh) and market value (US$B). Capacity forecasts are provided by both country and sector (grid-scale, C&I, and residential). Countries include China, US, the UK, Germany, Italy, Australia, India, and Chile.

 

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