29% CAGR for global swap station deployment from 2022-2032

电动车电池更换 2022-2032:技术、参与者和预测

汽车、两轮车和三轮车以及和商业重型车的电池更换。市场参与者、技术歌剧和详细的 10 年预测

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Battery swapping as an alternative to charging
Traditional cable based charging of EVs is now being complemented by another solution: battery swapping. In theory, the process is quicker and more convenient than a fast charge - 3-5 minutes for a swap as compared to 30-60 minutes on a DC fast charger. A driver drives into a battery swap station (BSS), and an automated system replaces the depleted battery with a fully charged spare without any user intervention or the driver having to leave the vehicle. This is the case for cars and heavy duty segment vehicles including trucks, buses and construction vehicles. From our research, we have found that in the case of cars, the most widespread approach is seen to be a pack swap from under the chassis of the car (as used widely by market leaders Nio and Aulton) whereas in trucks and buses it is often done using robotic cranes that lift battery packs from either above or from the side of the vehicle. In the case of swapping in the two and three-wheeler micromobility segment, a self-service approach is used wherein the user replaces smaller, lightweight battery packs themselves from a vending-machine-like swap station that holds spare batteries. Gogoro, Immotor and Swobbee are some of the key players in this market. As EV ranges get longer and batteries get bigger, fast-charging technology is fighting physics. Cable based charging units alone will not satisfy the market demand as EV sales outpace the installation rate. This is one of the motives in searching for other efficient publicly available solutions, and explains why battery-swapping has gained high attention.
Battery swapping promotes new business models by decoupling the cost of the battery from the vehicle itself. The emergence of battery as a service (BaaS) business models and separate battery asset management companies is a trend we are noticing in the industry. Swapping can also benefit consumers. EV batteries lose range over the years but with a swap system, users can easily upgrade to the latest battery technologies provided their BMS is compatible. Centrally trickle charging batteries in a swap station also eliminates the degradation associated with DC fast charging. The technology will likely be a critical enabler for electrification, not just in cars, but micromobility, rideshare fleets, autonomous vehicles and heavy duty commercial fleets. It may also be one of the most economical ways to build the large stationary energy storage necessary to support the world's growing supplies of renewable energy.
The swapping ecosystem promotes the second life use and recycling of batteries. Source: IDTechEx
Battery swapping is successfully being carried out in population-dense regions of APAC. China is in the lead with around 1300 swap stations by the end of 2021 and pioneering swapping for cars. In neighboring regions, swapping is initially being adopted for electric two-wheelers and three-wheeler segments. Perhaps the biggest barrier to wide-scale adoption is that swapping systems demand standardisation of battery packs across large vehicle ranges to become feasible. This may be a challenge at present when manufacturers are holding their battery pack design as intellectual property and differentiation from one another. CATL being the industry's largest battery supplier has also recently announced its own swapping company which has brought the spotlight back to a once doomed industry. Whether all manufacturers are willing to come together and accept a single or a few types of battery packs to make them swappable is difficult to imagine but we are seeing commercial fleets adopting this technology widely with great success. IDTechEx also sees some promising applications for swapping within the electric heavy trucks (EHTs) and construction vehicles segment where high operational efficiency is achieved by utilising swapping.
The latest report from IDTechEx on Battery Swapping for Electric Vehicles 2022-2032 covers swapping across various vehicle segments and provides information on the technologies, business models and players involved within the industry. Newer technologies including modular battery swaps are also coming into the picture and their uptake is addressed within the market forecasts. The energy storage potential of various segments of swap stations is also presented with an increase in battery demand over the years. We provide a technological and business overview of the major established car battery swapping players including Chinese operators and also smaller players from Europe and the US. Extensive coverage of players within the micromobility swapping segment is also included. A cost comparison to AC/DC charging, total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis and profitability study are some of the highlights of this report.
Summary of report contents and forecasts:
  • Comprehensive overview of various battery swapping players and technologies across various vehicle segments.
  • Analysis of the battery swapping benefits and drawbacks for each segment with feasibility for adoption.
  • A breakdown of the mechanical componentry present inside car swap stations and varying approaches to mounting and locking the battery.
  • Business models and company financials of key players.
  • Detailed ten-year market forecast on battery swap station deployments globally and specifically in China. Granular forecasts split by type of swapping and mode of swapping. Infrastructure market value and storage capacity forecasts for the global swapping industry.
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Table of Contents
1.1.Battery swapping: charge it or change it?
1.2.There are many ways to charge your EV - charging modes comparison
1.3.Swap-capable EVs entering the market
1.4.Battery swapping pathways for different types of EVs
1.5.Car swapping process overview
1.6.Battery swapping market for cars in China is getting competitive
1.7.Swapping is more expensive than AC or DC charging
1.8.Swapping station deployment will rise over the next 5 years
1.9.Battery as a Service (BaaS) business model - a disintegrated approach
1.10.Two and three-wheelers use small capacity, self-service swap models
1.11.Two wheeler battery swapping is successfully being carried out in population-dense regions of APAC
1.12.Commercial heavy duty battery swapping is in its early stages
1.13.Battery swapping stations can act as grid support units and enable battery recycling
1.14.Battery swapping SWOT analysis
1.15.Battery swapping benefits and scepticism
1.16.Global cumulative swap station deployment by segment 2021-2032
1.17.Light EVs to remain most prominent segment for swapping, cars to follow
1.18.Battery swapping will impose additional demand on the global battery supply
1.19.Global battery swapping infrastructure market value per year - over $22 billion in 2032
1.20.High level findings
1.21.Access to IDTechEx portal profiles
2.1.Why swap?
2.2.Ditching the cable
2.3.Current bottleneck in charging
2.4.From cable charging to battery swapping
2.5.Swapping vs cable charging
2.6.Battery swapping can serve more cars than superchargers
2.7.EV charging modes comparison
3.1.1.History: a spectacular failure
3.1.2.Major milestones
3.1.3.Technology overview
3.1.4.Challenges and opportunities
3.1.5.Battery swapping scepticism
3.1.6.The cost problem $
3.1.7.Replacement queuing
3.1.8.Swapping industry seeing large investments
3.1.9.Can a swap station make profit?
3.1.10.Profitability analysis
3.1.11.Battery swapping advantages
3.1.12.Trickle/centralised charging enabled by swapping
3.1.13.Battery swapping is taking off in the Chinese EV market
3.1.14.China development phases
3.1.15.China swapping OEMs milestones
3.1.16.Historical swap station deployment in China
3.1.17.Swap stations in Chinese cities was a pivotal year for battery swapping in China
3.1.19.Will it catch on outside of China?
3.1.20.Why battery swapping is ideal for fleets
3.1.21.Swapping value for end user
3.2.Battery Swapping Technologies
3.2.1.Battery swapping station (BSS)
3.2.2.Battery swapping mechanisms
3.2.3.Battery swapping can take various forms
3.2.4.Battery swapping mechanism - base frame type
3.2.5.Battery swapping mechanisms - forklift type
3.2.6.Battery swapping mechanism - gripper type
3.2.7.Above versus below ground swapping
3.2.8.Operation process in the swapping model
3.2.9.Real world BSS usage scenarios
3.2.10.How many excess batteries?
3.2.11.The inventory dilemma
3.2.12.Swapping station footprints and storage capacity
3.2.13.Swapping station footprint per MWh of storage capacity
3.2.14.Battery swap modes
3.2.15.Battery pack universality is hard to achieve
3.2.16.What's inside a BSS and how are they differentiated?
3.2.17.Nio BSS - how it works
3.2.18.Nio BSS components
3.2.19.Nio BSS tech specs
3.2.20.Controlling the BSS
3.2.21.Locking/unlocking the battery: Nio
3.2.22.Nio battery pack options
3.2.23.Nio to offer even more battery capacity
3.2.24.Aulton BSS: how it works
3.2.25.Aulton BSS tech specs
3.2.26.Locking/unlocking the battery: Aulton/BAIC
3.2.27.Botan swapping technology
3.2.28.Botan revives side to side pull out swap
3.2.29.Botan swapping modes
3.2.30.CATL EVOGO swapping technology
3.2.31.Ample swapping technology
3.2.32.Power Swap - swapping technology
3.2.33.Power Swap - automatic swapping unit components
3.2.34.System design for swapping
3.2.35.Comparison of different battery mounting options
3.2.36.Battery-to-grid within the battery swapping model
3.2.37.Safety - what can go wrong while swapping?
3.3.Battery Swapping Market
3.3.1.Market entrants
3.3.2.Location matters
3.3.4.Tesla and Better Place swapping business models
3.3.5.Business model of Chinese enterprises
3.3.6.Battery as a Service (BaaS) business model - a disintegrated approach
3.3.7.Why BaaS will be a popular model
3.3.8.Nio sets up separate battery asset company
3.3.9.BaaS has low TCO in the short term
3.3.10.Nio lets users opt out of BaaS plan
3.3.11.Who owns the battery?
3.3.12.Battery swapping is becoming big business
3.3.13.Cost comparison
3.3.14.Fire risks and recalls in swapping
3.3.15.Swap enabled EV models
3.3.16.Passenger battery swapping EV models
3.3.17.Growing market for swap enabled EVs for private users
3.3.18.Commercial battery swapping EV models
3.3.19.Swap-enabled EVs to station ratio - not enough swap stations?
3.3.20.Multi aspect analysis of battery swapping ecosystem
3.4.Battery Swapping Players
3.4.1.Chinese swapping players overview
3.4.2.Battery swapping partnerships
3.4.3.Nio aka Weilai
3.4.4.Nio financials and company factsheet
3.4.5.Nio sales picking up and production ramping up
3.4.6.Nio - Sinopec partnership
3.4.7.Nio and local counterparts
3.4.8.Nio's Europe expansion
3.4.9.Nio swap stations in Europe to use Technotrans cooling solution
3.4.10.Nio swap station deployment
3.4.11.Nio station to vehicle ratio
3.4.12.BAIC BJEV
3.4.13.BAIC BJEV - Blue Park Smart Energy
3.4.14.Blue Park Smart Energy - SKI Innovation partnership
3.4.15.Blue Park Smart Energy - Bosch - Mitsubishi partnership
3.4.16.Aulton aka Aodong
3.4.17.Aulton's commercial approach vs Nio's private approach
3.4.18.Aulton partnerships - a brand neutral swapping experience
3.4.19.Infradianba: Chinese-German battery swapping venture
3.4.20.Hangzhou First Technology Co. aka Botan
3.4.21.Botan partnerships
3.4.22.Geely: ambitious latecomer
3.4.23.Geely and Lifan JV - Ruilan
3.4.24.CATL EVOGO - need based battery rental
3.4.25.CATL's entry into the swapping business
3.4.26.GAC Aion - latest Chinese market entrant
3.4.28.Power Swap - European swapping player
3.4.29.Battswap - compact van swapping
3.4.30.Ample - swapping in the US
3.4.31.Adaptive City Mobility (ACM)
4.1.1.Electric Two-wheelers: Power Classes
4.1.2.The rise of electric two and three-wheelers
4.1.3.Electric two-wheelers (E2W) in India
4.1.4.Electric three-wheelers (E3W) in India
4.1.5.Electric two and three-wheelers dominate EV sales in India
4.1.6.India moto market forecast
4.1.7.India: Historic E2W Market Growth
4.1.8.Rise of Li-ion in India
4.1.9.E2W by Power Class and Battery Type 2015-2041
4.1.10.Gigafactories in India
4.1.11.List of EV Startups in India
4.1.12.How swapping for two and three-wheelers differs from four-wheelers
4.1.13.The proposition for electric two-wheeler swapping
4.1.14.The light electric vehicle interchangeable battery consortium
4.1.15.Benefits and challenges for two and three-wheeler swapping
4.2.Two and three wheeler swapping technology
4.2.1.Self-service swapping process
4.2.2.Two and three wheeler swapping architectures
4.2.3.Gogoro swapping technology
4.2.4.Sun Mobility technology (2 & 3-wheeler solution)
4.2.5.Piaggio's e3W using Sun Mobility swapping architecture
4.2.6.Standalone model - a distributed architecture
4.2.7.Hub and spoke model - a centralised architecture
4.2.8.Defining specifications for swapping architecture in India
4.2.9.Centralised and closed loop management of batteries
4.3.Two and three wheeler swapping players
4.3.2.Gogoro business model
4.3.3.Gogoro swap station network
4.3.4.Gogoro partnerships
4.3.5.Gogoro expansion plans
4.3.6.Gogoro's swappable solid state battery prototype
4.3.9.Kymco - Ionex Recharge
4.3.11.MBI - mbigo
4.3.12.Mbigo Sharing Battery Station (SBS) specification
4.3.15.Sun Mobility - swapping in Indian EV ecosystem
4.3.16.Sun Mobility partnerships
4.3.17.Hero brand clarity
4.3.20.Battery Smart
4.3.24.Lithion Power
4.3.27.Two and three wheeler swapping players summary
4.3.28.IDTechEx opinion on the state of swapping in India
5.1.1.Electric heavy vehicles in China
5.1.2.Electric truck OEMs in China
5.1.3.Mounting swappable batteries in trucks
5.1.4.Chinese battery swapping electric heavy trucks (EHTs)
5.1.5.Technical parameters for battery swapping EHT models
5.1.6.Battery-swapping truck market share in China
5.1.7.Heavy-duty truck swapping stations in China
5.1.8.Major Chinese players in the battery swapping supply chain
5.1.9.Challenges of battery swapping for electric trucks
5.1.10.Advantages of battery swapping for electric trucks
5.1.11.Swapping promotes safer battery management and higher battery lifecycle value
5.1.12.Ecosystem for battery swapping in electric trucks
5.1.13.Battery swapping for electric buses
5.1.14.Bus stations to battery swap stations?
5.1.15.Side to side swapping for electric buses
5.1.16.Side to side swapping in practice
5.1.17.Battery swapping feasibility for heavy duty applications
5.2.CAM and commercial heavy duty battery swapping players
5.2.1.Komatsu / Honda micro electric excavators
5.2.2.Gehl electric skid steer with battery swap
5.2.3.Hyundai excavator HX260AL electric
5.2.4.Doosan DX300LC electric
5.2.5.Limach E88.1 excavator
5.2.6.PV-E crane 100% electric crawler cranes
5.2.7.Chinese OEMs electric mixer trucks
5.2.8.Sany's battery swapping station debut
5.2.9.Chinese battery swapping dump trucks
5.2.10.Etrucks swapping range
5.2.11.Janus Electric
5.2.12.Edison Motors buses
5.2.13.Foton C10/C12 EV
5.2.14.Ashok Leyland Circuit S
5.2.15.Sun Mobility technology (bus solution)
5.2.16.Project eHaul to test robotic battery swapping for trucks
5.2.17.Route Charge - Battery changing system for medium distances commercial vehicles
6.1.International swap standards: an overview
6.2.IEC 62840
6.3.Comparison between swap standards
6.4.National policies aid swapping and provide tailwinds
6.5.Policies - China
6.6.Policies - India
6.7.Indian state level policies
7.1.Forecast methodology and assumptions
7.2.Global cumulative swap station deployment by segment 2021-2032
7.3.Global new swap station deployment by segment 2021-2032
7.4.Car swap stations by region 2021-2032
7.5.Total number of swap stations in China 2021-2032
7.6.New car swap stations in China
7.7.Car swap stations by swapping mode 2021-2032
7.8.Car swap stations by swapping type 2021-2032
7.9.Total two and three wheeler swap stations 2021-2032
7.10.New two and three wheeler swap stations 2021-2032
7.11.Total commercial heavy duty swap stations 2021-2032
7.12.New commercial heavy duty swap stations 2021-2032
7.13.Global swap station storage capacity per year
7.14.Car swap station storage capacity 2021-2032
7.15.Two and three wheeler swap station storage capacity 2021-2032
7.16.Commercial heavy duty swap station storage capacity 2021-2032
7.17.Global battery swapping infrastructure market value per year

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幻灯片 273
预测 2032
ISBN 9781913899998


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