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Organic Electronics Forecasts, Players & Opportunities
Detailed 20 year forecasts across the full breadth of applications of organic semiconductors
Updated October 2006
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This report has now been replaced by the new Organic & Printed Inorganic Electronics Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2007-2027
Organic electronics involves thin film transistors and displays for electronic products, where the key component is organic and all parts are expected to be organic in due course. It cannot be understood on this narrow basis, however, because we now have organic lasers, fuel cells, batteries, photodetectors and much more besides, with every prospect that they will be co-deposited using similar inks at high speeds on similar, or the same, equipment. That means lower cost electronics and electrics, with greater reliability due to fewer interconnects and improved tolerance of damage. But the big picture also involves the replacement of most lighting with slimmer, flexible organic alternatives with lower costs and better environmental credentials.
The global market for organic electronics 2005-2025 $ billion
Source:IDTechEx
The big picture has to involve a twenty year timeframe because some of this will take a long time. Uniquely, this report encompasses all applications and that vital, long timeframe. Developers of inks, printing equipment and processes can now see the full scope of their opportunity.
The potential annual global sales of each type by 2020
Source: IDTechEx
IDTechEx finds that organic electronics will be a $30 billion business in 2015 mainly due to logic, displays and lighting. It will be a $250 billion business in 2025, with at least ten billion dollars sales from logic/ memory, OLED displays for electronic products, OLED billboard, signage etc, non-emissive organic displays, OLED lighting, batteries and photovoltaics, with sensors almost at that level. And almost all of these products will be printed, flexible, laminar constructions using the same or similar processes. Important other products such as laminar organic fuel cells and organic electrostatic and RF protection are also in the forecasts. The report also analyzes territorial trends and partnerships.
The market for organic electronics by territory in $ billion
Source:IDTechEx
Contrary to popular opinion, IDTechEx also finds that much of the new organic market will be newly created and not replacing anything electronic. Where existing electronic and electric products are impacted, the extent will be varied. Examples of needs by different industries and case studies are given.
IDTechEx believes that there are few other technologies that will have such an impact on industry in the next twenty years. Organic electronics in the form of smart packaging, electronic billboards, posters, signage and electronic books will impact the conventional printing and publishing industry. Organic lighting will severely dent sales of both incandescent and fluorescent lighting in the second decade from now.
IDTechEx sees a big mismatch between evolving market need and potential suppliers and their progress. IDTechEx spots the problems that are opportunities and summarises the thrust of a large number of today's participants in the organic electronic scene and, given the fact that the industry is drowning in jargon, the report incorporates the IDTechEx A to Z of Printed & Disposable Electronics.
Feedback from customers
"The IDTechEx team has once again done a stunning job in providing a wonderful overview of our new industry. For the first time, we get to see all the different market segments presented and analysed in a single report. What's more, it covers the near term through 2010 as organic electronics becomes a multibillion dollar opportunity and then looks out ten-twenty years when industry revenues will be measured in the hundreds of billions"
Stuart Evans is CEO of Plastic Logic, one of the leading young companies in organic electronics. He is also a pioneer in RFID, having been founding CEO of Cotag International over 20 years ago.
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| EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS | |
| 1. | INTRODUCTION |
| 1.1. | Global semiconductor shipments monthly and three month average 1983 to 2005 |
| 1.1. | 20 year forecasts of unusual breadth |
| 1.1. | Global GDP and electronics growth % by value 2003 and 2004 |
| 1.2. | GDP growth % by territory |
| 1.2. | The global electronics industry and GDP |
| 1.2. | Fujitsu eight chip stacked package |
| 1.3. | Typical price breaks for high volume electronics and examples of potential advances. |
| 1.3. | Geographical differences |
| 1.3. | Global electronics industry by application |
| 1.4. | Global cellphone sales 1997 to 2005 in millions |
| 1.4. | Importance of China |
| 1.5. | The electronics industry |
| 1.5. | Global camera phone sales in millions 2002 to 2005 |
| 1.6. | Some of today’s disposable electronics and why inorganic technology is needed to make it more saleable and useful |
| 1.6. | Scope for organic electronics and electrics |
| 1.7. | There is a bigger picture |
| 1.7. | Some of the technical constraints of organic electronics and the exciting recent history of breakthroughs that give credibility to more being overcome in the next few years |
| 1.8. | Examples of formidable competition for organic electronics that is emerging. |
| 1.8. | Displays are the main sector for now |
| 1.9. | Surprisingly poor progress with low cost electronics so far |
| 1.9. | Categories and assumptions used in our forecasts |
| 1.10. | Primary assumptions of organic electronics in full production 2005 to 2025 |
| 1.10. | Silicon chips hit the buffers, organics has a clear run? |
| 1.11. | Organics for smart packaging |
| 1.12. | Driving forces for disposable electronics |
| 1.13. | Balance of reporting on printed and organic electronics |
| 1.14. | Inorganic patterning shows the way |
| 1.15. | Great uncertainty |
| 1.16. | Categories breaking down |
| 1.17. | Challenging conventional electronics |
| 1.18. | Formidable new competition for organic electronics |
| 1.19. | Assumptions for our forecasts |
| 2. | LOGIC AND MEMORY |
| 2.1. | Experimental gigabit level organic ferroelectric non-volatile memory on a flexible substrate from Thin Film Electronics of Sweden. |
| 2.1. | Market by region 2005-2025 |
| 2.1. | Global market for organic logic and memory 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 2.2. | North America market for organic logic and memory 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 2.2. | Impact on silicon |
| 2.2. | Potential, in billions yearly, for global sales of RFID labels and circuits printed directly onto products or packaging. Item level is shown in red. These are examples. |
| 2.3. | Chipless RFID benefits and potential benefits |
| 2.3. | Memory |
| 2.3. | Europe market for organic logic and memory 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 2.4. | Asia Pacific market for organic logic and memory 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 2.4. | RFID |
| 2.4. | Chipless RFID technologies – limitations |
| 2.4.1. | Market for RFID |
| 2.4.2. | Ultimate potential for highest volume RFID |
| 2.4.3. | Penetration of chipless RFID |
| 2.5. | The Plastic Logic preproduction line for organic thin film transistor circuits, new mid 2005 |
| 2.5. | Plastic Logic prototype line |
| 2.5. | Rest of World market for organic logic and memory 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 2.6. | Scope for organic TFTCs to create new markets or replace silicon chips |
| 2.7. | Volume sales of tags by application 2005-2015 |
| 2.8. | Total value of tags in billions of US dollars per application 2005-2015 |
| 2.9. | Prototype 13.56 MHz RFID smart labels from reel to reel production of organic TFTCs by PolyIC |
| 2.10. | Choices of digital chipless RFID technologies |
| 2.11. | Percentage penetration of chipless technologies into the RFID tag business by numbers of tags sold globally. |
| 3. | DISPLAYS |
| 3.1. | OLEDs as displays for electronic products |
| 3.1. | A Sony OLED display illustrating its remarkable thinness |
| 3.1. | Global market for OLED displays for electronic products 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 3.1.1. | Market by region 2005-2025 |
| 3.1.2. | Market drivers |
| 3.1.3. | Considerable optimism |
| 3.1.4. | Importance of flexible OLED displays |
| 3.1.5. | Profitable sales in 2007? |
| 3.1.6. | Examples |
| 3.1.7. | Main uses |
| 3.1.8. | Monochrome dying |
| 3.2. | Global market for OLED displays for electronic products 2005-2025 in numbers of units, million |
| 3.2. | Concept of apparel that illuminates with flexible OLED displays |
| 3.2. | OLEDs for billboard, poster, signage |
| 3.2.1. | Market by region 2005-2025 |
| 3.2.2. | Areas of signage etc |
| 3.2.3. | Main investment in East Asia |
| 3.2.4. | Unique problems mean delayed takeoff |
| 3.2.5. | Different competition vs electronic displays |
| 3.2.6. | Challenges outdoors |
| 3.2.7. | Market forecast for dynamic signage |
| 3.3. | North America market for OLED displays for electric products 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 3.3. | Non-emissive displays for all purposes |
| 3.3. | An OLED display in a Kodak camera |
| 3.3.1. | Market by region 2005-2025 |
| 3.3.2. | Electrophoretic |
| 3.3.3. | Aveso forecasts of the market opportunity for low cost displays |
| 3.3.4. | Unusually broad applicability |
| 3.3.5. | Packaging and other disposables |
| 3.4. | Europe market for OLED displays for electric products 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 3.4. | Concepts of OLED street signage and advertising |
| 3.5. | A concept of “wallpaper television” based on OLEDs. |
| 3.5. | Asia Pacific market for OLED displays for electric products 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 3.6. | Rest of World market for OLED displays for electric products 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 3.6. | US outdoor advertising spend 1993 – 2004 |
| 3.7. | Outdoor advertising split by four major product categories |
| 3.7. | Optimism about OLED displays expressed by industry |
| 3.8. | Global market for OLED billboard, poster, signage 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 3.8. | Breakdown of locations of outdoor advertising. |
| 3.9. | Large area display units 2002-2009 |
| 3.9. | North America market for OLED billboard, poster, signage 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 3.10. | Europe market for OLED billboard, poster, signage 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 3.10. | Gyricon electrically reprogrammable black and white signage |
| 3.11. | The potential for low cost printed displays i.e. below the costs obtainable with emissive technology. |
| 3.11. | Asia Pacific market for OLED billboard, poster, signage 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 3.12. | Rest of World market for OLED billboard, poster, signage 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 3.12. | Aveso alphanumeric displays can be produced in millions at low cost |
| 3.13. | Aveso low cost flexible displays with silicon chip drive circuits |
| 3.13. | Comparison of the features of various technologies for advertising and signage |
| 3.14. | Global market for organic non-emissive displays 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 3.15. | North America market for non-emissive displays 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 3.16. | Europe market for non-emissive displays 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 3.17. | Asia Pacific market for non-emissive displays 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 3.18. | Rest of World market for non-emissive displays 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 4. | LIGHTING |
| 4.1. | A small OLED light |
| 4.1. | Global market for OLED lighting 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 4.1. | Market by region 2005-2025 |
| 4.2. | General illumination market |
| 4.2. | North America market for OLED lighting 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 4.2. | The space saving of OLED lights and their exceptional colour tunability |
| 4.3. | Europe market for OLED lighting 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 4.3. | Examples |
| 4.4. | Stand alone equipment |
| 4.4. | Asia Pacific market for OLED lighting 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 4.5. | Rest of World market for OLED lighting 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 4.5. | Significance of OLEDs and challenges |
| 4.6. | Primary categories of lighting compared with emerging OLED capability |
| 4.6. | Incandescent, fluorescent, inorganic LED and the potential performance of OLED lighting compared |
| 4.7. | Historical and projected sales of inorganic LED lighting 2002-2008 in billions of units |
| 4.7. | LEDs |
| 4.8. | Where OLED lighting will be used – building and vehicle statistics |
| 4.8. | Dwelling stock: stock and housebuilding, European Union, 2002 |
| 4.9. | Global population of vehicles 1997, 2005, 2030 in millions |
| 5. | ELECTROSTATIC AND RF SHIELDING |
| 5.1. | Panipol polyaniline-based electrostatic shielding |
| 5.1. | Global market for organic electrostatic and RF shielding 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 5.1. | Market by region 2005-2025 |
| 5.2. | Market drivers and examples |
| 5.2. | North America market for electrostatic and RF shielding 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 5.3. | Europe market for electrostatic and RF shielding 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 5.3. | Technologies |
| 5.4. | Asia Pacific market for electrostatic and RF shielding 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 5.5. | Rest of World market for electrostatic and RF shielding 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 6. | POWER |
| 6.1. | Structure of an organic battery suitable for fast reel to reel assembly |
| 6.1. | Global market for laminar batteries that use organic electrolytes 2005-2025 $ billion |
| 6.1. | Batteries |
| 6.1.1. | Market by region 2005-2025 |
| 6.1.2. | Importance of laminar batteries |
| 6.1.3. | Competition from inorganics |
| 6.1.4. | Example - VoltaFlex |
| 6.2. | Photovoltaics and thermovoltaics |
| 6.2. | North America market for laminar batteries 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 6.2. | Voltaflex organic polymer lithium battery |
| 6.2.1. | Market by region 2005-2025 |
| 6.2.2. | Thermolife |
| 6.2.3. | Applications |
| 6.2.4. | Construction |
| 6.2.5. | Structure of the market by technology |
| 6.2.6. | Historical market growth |
| 6.3. | Fuel cell and other |
| 6.3. | Europe market for laminar batteries that use organic electrolytes 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 6.3. | Inorganic solid state lithium miniature batteries a few centimeters across. |
| 6.3.1. | Market by region 2005-2025 |
| 6.3.2. | The Ceres and Toshiba laminar fuel cells |
| 6.4. | Asia Pacific market for laminar batteries that use organic electrolytes 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 6.4. | Infinite Power Solutions lithium batteries a few millimeters across |
| 6.5. | The flexible organic solar cells |
| 6.5. | Rest of World market for laminar batteries that use organic electrolytes 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 6.6. | Market for complete active RFID tags 2005-2025 $ million |
| 6.6. | The Ceres UK laminar fuel cell |
| 6.7. | Construction of Ceres UK fuel cell |
| 6.7. | RFID market for printed organic batteries 2005-2025 $ million |
| 6.8. | Global market for organic photovoltaics 2005-2025 $ billion |
| 6.8. | A Toshiba Japan fuel cell for MP3 players etc being refuelled with methanol |
| 6.9. | Miniature aluminium air fuel cell |
| 6.9. | North America market for organic photovoltaics 2005-2025 $ billion |
| 6.10. | Europe market for organic photovoltaics 2005-2025 $ billion |
| 6.11. | Asia Pacific market for organic photovoltaics 2005-2025 $ billion |
| 6.12. | Rest of World market for organic photovoltaics 2005-2025 $ billion |
| 6.13. | US spend on camping, hiking, backpacking 2002 $ billion |
| 6.14. | Structure of the global photovoltaic market by technology in 2005 and the potential for organic photovoltaics |
| 6.15. | The global photovoltaic market in megawatts 1994 and 2002 |
| 6.16. | Market for organic photovoltaics by application 2005-2025 $ million |
| 6.17. | Global market for organic fuel cells and other forms of organic power 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 6.18. | North America market for organic fuel cells and other forms of organic power 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 6.19. | Europe market for organic fuel cells and other forms of organic power 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 6.20. | Asia Pacific market for organic fuel cells and other forms of organic power 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 6.21. | Rest of World market for organic fuel cells and other forms of organic power 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 7. | SENSORS AND OTHER ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS |
| 7.1. | The main options for organic sensors |
| 7.1. | Global market for organic sensors and other components 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 7.1. | Market by region 2005-2025 |
| 7.2. | Sensors |
| 7.2. | North America market for organic sensors and other components 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 7.2. | Dependent elderly as a percent of population for Italy, Japan, France, Sweden, UK and US 1970 to 2040 |
| 7.3. | Bioett of Sweden electronic label consisting of a printed organic biosensor, capacitor and inductor used for monitoring the temperature history of food. |
| 7.3. | Europe market for organic sensors and other components 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 7.3. | A very broad subject – market drivers |
| 7.4. | Food supply chains |
| 7.4. | Asia Pacific market for organic sensors and other components 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 7.4. | An inorganic ac electroluminescent smart window that reveals a pattern on sensing sunlight |
| 7.5. | Cypak intelligent package showing printed graphite sensors and the silicon microchip. |
| 7.5. | Rest of World market for organic sensors and other components 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 7.5. | Other components |
| 7.6. | Conductors/ interconnects |
| 7.6. | Main applications of conductive inks and some major suppliers today |
| 7.6.1. | Sensing intrusion |
| 7.6.2. | Main applications |
| 7.6.3. | Market size for laminar conductors |
| 7.7. | Market size for polymer thick film inks and ceramic thick film inks |
| 7.8. | Market share by application of metallic/carbon Polymer Thick Film PTF ink |
| 7.9. | Market size for carbon conductive inks |
| 8. | GLOBAL MARKETS AND TIMELINES |
| 8.1. | The potential annual global sales of each type by 2020 |
| 8.1. | Possible breakdown of the market for organic electronics in 2025 by numbers and value. |
| 8.1. | Market by applicational sector |
| 8.1.1. | Vision of 2020 and 2025 |
| 8.1.2. | Varied impacts |
| 8.1.3. | Typical products incorporating organic electronics |
| 8.1.4. | Global market for organic electronics 2005-2025 |
| 8.2. | Examples of organic electronics and electrics tackling different technologies and applications. |
| 8.2. | Markets by region |
| 8.2. | Some constituents of the market for organic electronics in 2015 by numbers and value. |
| 8.2.1. | North America |
| 8.2.2. | Europe |
| 8.2.3. | Asia Pacific |
| 8.2.4. | Rest of World |
| 8.3. | Value of barcode and RFID labels sales 1970 to 2025 and the growth of sale of electronic inks for the direct printing of organic RFID circuits onto products and packaging |
| 8.3. | Global market for organic electronics 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 8.3. | Market by technology |
| 8.4. | Timelines 2005-2025 |
| 8.4. | Markets by technology in North America $ billions |
| 8.4. | OLED display roadmap |
| 8.4.1. | Logic and memory for RFID |
| 8.4.2. | Logic for backplane display drivers |
| 8.4.3. | OLED displays |
| 8.4.4. | OLED lighting |
| 8.5. | Probable timeline for a closed system based on organic sensors. |
| 8.5. | Markets by technology in Europe $ billions |
| 8.5. | Sensor driven closed systems |
| 8.6. | Conductive patterns |
| 8.6. | Markets by technology in Asia Pacific $ billions |
| 8.6. | Actual and potential choices of conductive patterning technology with some dates for production |
| 8.6.1. | Conductive plastics |
| 8.6.2. | Applicability of organic conductors |
| 8.6.3. | Participants in the organic electronics business |
| 8.7. | Markets by technology in the Rest of The World $ billions |
| 8.8. | Global market for organic electronics and the OLED part 2005-2025 in billions of dollars |
| 8.9. | Percentage of the organic electronics and electrics market represented by OLEDs by value 2005 to 2025 |
| 8.10. | Organic TFTC timelines as display drivers |
| 8.11. | Timelines for OLED active matrix displays |
| 8.12. | Some timelines for OLED lighting |
| 8.13. | Progress in the conductance and therefore the usefulness of organic conductive patterns 2005, 2015, 2025 |
| 8.14. | The most popular printing equipment for production of conductive patterns as electrodes, interconnects etc 2005, 2008, 2025 |
| 8.15. | Examples of companies developing organic logic and/or memory and their main emphasis |
| 8.16. | Examples of companies developing organic logic and/or memory and their main emphasis |
| 8.17. | Examples of companies developing organic non-emitting displays and their main emphasis |
| 8.18. | Companies developing organic electrostatic and RF protection |
| 8.19. | Examples of companies developing organic laminar batteries and their main emphasis |
| 8.20. | Examples of companies developing organic photovoltaics and their main emphasis |
| 8.21. | Examples of companies developing organic laminar fuel cells and their main emphasis |
| 8.22. | Examples of companies developing organic sensors and other components and their main emphasis |
| TABLES | |
| FIGURES |
报告统计信息
| Pages | 220 |
|---|---|
| Tables | 105 |
| Figures | 69 |
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