2025-2045年乘用车ADAS市场：技术、市场分析和预测

乘用车自动驾驶辅助系统（ADAS）在SAE级别的覆盖范围

2020年至2023年私家车上ADAS功能和传感器的采用率

L2+ADAS乘用车性能、销售和传感器套件分析

关键技术和发展

私家车ADAS车辆销售和功能销售的20年预测

 

1. 执行摘要

2. 简介

3. ADAS技术摘要

4. ADAS自动化趋势和法规

5. ADAS汽车市场分析

6. 启用技术：LiDAR、雷达、摄像头、红外、高清地图、远程操作、5G和V2X

7. 预测摘要

 

Over the past few years, Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have become a core competitive factor in the passenger vehicles market. In particular, "Level 2+" has emerged as a term describing advanced Level 2 ADAS with more sophisticated capabilities, such as Highway navigate on Pilot and City navigate on Pilot. IDTechEx projects that the global market for L2+ functionalities could reach US$17.98 billion by 2045, driven by both premium and mass-market adoption and the rise of hands-free driving features.

 

 

For many years, "Level 2+" has described well-refined driving assistance that goes beyond conventional Level 2. The "plus" indicates that drivers can briefly remove their hands from the wheel while keeping their eyes on the road (eyes-on). Beyond typical highway scenarios, the Operational Design Domain (ODD) for L2+ is now expanding to highway NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) and urban NOA, serving as a vital steppingstone toward Level 3 autonomy.

The private car market has seen a major surge in hands-free driving adoption in recent years. General Motors (GM) introduced early Super Cruise systems in 2017, establishing a foundation for hands-off ADAS. By 2024, GM have over 20 models equipped with Super Cruise and extended mapped roads to 750,000 miles. Ford has also reached a notable milestone by bringing BlueCruise (L2+) to Europe, making it the first OEM to cover the region with hands-free driving capabilities. Meanwhile, the Chinese market has witnessed leading EV makers roll out NOA features at scale since 2023. Li Auto, Huawei, XPeng, and NIO have each deployed their own L2+ NOA features, despite regulations in China that have not yet formally allowed true hands-free driving. By 2024, Li Auto achieved annual L2+ vehicle sales of over 500,000 units and accumulated 2.93 billion km in L2+ driving mileage by users, claiming more than 90% coverage of urban NOA cities through mapless Automated Driving System (ADS) in China.

 

 

 

The key difference between level 2+ and level 3 is that eyes-on becomes eyes-off. This effectively means that the OEM becomes liable for anything that happens while the vehicle is reporting that it is operating at level 3. So far, the only OEMs happy to accept this have been Mercedes and BMW, the forming having certified level 3 driving in Germany, California, and Nevada, and the latter only having the technology in Germany.

 

Level 3 has been allowed on the roads since 2021, with a very small deployment from Honda in Japan. Following that Mercedes certified its system in Germany in 2022, then in the US in 2023. Since then BMW has certified in Germany and Mercedes has announced intentions to raise its maximum operating speed from 60kph (~40mph) to 95kph (~60mph). By the end of 2024, IDTechEx had expected to see more regions getting level 3 certification and more companies, especially GM and Ford, certifying their technologies. Progress has been much slower than initially thought, something that is reflected in IDTechEx's forecasts. IDTechEx now sees level 2+ as a more significant avenue of development, with level 3 likely to pick up in a few years' time.

 

Given the slow start that level 3 vehicles have had, IDTechEx now anticipates their deployment and adoption will be much slower than initially predicted. See the full report for the technologies available on these vehicles, all the rules surrounding level 3 deployment, and IDTechEx's forecasts for how level 3 technologies will spread.

 

One of the major reasons behind China's swift L2+ adoption is its robust supply chain integration across OEMs, software solution providers, and hardware suppliers. Companies like Momenta, Apollo, and WeRide deliver AD software stacks for rapid OEM integration. Huawei, Mobileye, Bosch, Horizon Robotics, and Black Sesame offer combined hardware-software solutions that further shorten the time to market for traditional automakers. Some OEMs also adopt in-house ADS architecture, supported by in-house cloud computing centers, end-to-end algorithm design, and in-house LiDAR, radar, or domain controller development. IDTechEx conducted a case study on leading Chinese OEMs' Sales Volume and Break-even Point, factoring in R&D team costs, cloud computing expenses, and L2+ penetration rates in different models. This provides insight into how quickly large investments in advanced ADAS might turn profitable.

 

Rising global safety mandates have led to rapid growth of active safety functions such as AEB (Automatic Emergency Braking), which in turn drives increased deployment of cameras, radars, LiDARs, and domain controllers. AEB may initially rely on a forward camera, but accuracy often improves when fused with forward-facing radar. Lane Change Assist might call for side radars or ultrasonic sensors, while 360° surround view requires at least four cameras to stitch together a panoramic image. IDTechEx has identified 14 major L1-L2+/L3 ADAS features in passenger vehicles and provides a 20-year forecast of their adoption by region (the US, Europe, China, Japan). By analyzing sensor costs, SoC prices, and software license fees, this report provides revenue projections for each ADAS feature, offering insights into the market development surrounding SAE L0-L2+.

 

This report offers a comprehensive overview of automakers' progress in basic L0-L1 safety ADAS features, L2 luxury functionality, and Level 2+ (hands-off, eyes-on) deployments, including the total miles of roads covered and the regulatory challenges encountered in different regions. It also examines the range of sensor arrays employed in L2+ solutions, from pure vision to LiDAR-dependent fusion algorithms, explaining how different cost structures align with distinct vehicle segments. Additionally, it includes a list of currently available L2+ models, their sensor configurations, prices, and market analyses.

 

Coverage of passenger ADAS vehicles at SAE levels

 

Uptake of ADAS features and sensors on private cars, adoption percentages from vehicles sold in 2020 to 2023 for

 

L2+ADAS Passenger Vehicle Performance, Sale and Sensor Suites Analysis

 

Enabling technologies and key developments therein

 

20-year forecast of private ADAS vehicle sales, and Features sales in:

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