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Printed and Chipless RFID Forecasts, Technologies & Players 2009-2019
Updated in Q1 2010
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The biggest opportunity for RFID
The biggest opportunity for RFID is the item level tagging of all things. This ultimately calls for a very low cost tag, something that printed and chipless RFID technologies have already demonstrated or have the potential to achieve this. Interestingly, few of the biggest chip RFID suppliers are working on these technologies. Instead, printers, packagers and electronics companies are leading development, some seeing the ultra low cost RFID tag as just the beginning - with integrated ultra low cost components such as displays, sensors and power to come. This is the only report to cover the technologies, players, opportunities and challenges of what will be the most widely used RFID technologies. Detailed forecasts are given and global progress assessed.
Ten year forecasts
RFID tags that do not contain a silicon chip are called chipless tags - some of which can be printed. The primary potential benefit of the most promising chipless tags is that eventually they could be printed directly on products and packaging for 0.1 cents and replace ten trillion barcodes yearly with something far more versatile and reliable.
The next ten years will see a rapid gain in market share of mainstream printed and chipless RFID tags. The numbers sold globally will rise from 40 million in 2009 to 624 billion in 2019. By value, printed and chipless versions will rise from less than $5 million in 2009 to $3.93 billion in 2019, one third of all income from RFID tags in 2019 because most of the increase in penetration will be by price advantage. In 2019, the average price of an item level tag will be 1 cent but chipless versions will be less - particularly so when printed directly onto packaging. However, only a small proportion will be directly printed onto packaging by 2019. Chip versions will be about 4 cents for highest volumes in 2019 and chipless versions about 0.4 cents.
This report gives the penetration of printed and chipless RFID into many different market verticals over the next ten years. It gives assessment of the different technology options and profiles of the main companies developing these.
Number (in millions) of passive tags by application 2009-2019
Source: IDTechEx
Forecasts by technology type
For the lowest cost technologies, we consider how the cost structure will probably not be on a per tag basis, where the value of the tags in hundreds of billions is only a few million dollars, but those involved will make money on licensing the technology, readers, data management etc.
Sales in millions of the main types of chipless tag 2009-2019
Source: IDTechEx
What you will learn
- The world's only in depth report covering printed and chipless RFID technologies and companies
- Detailed market forecasts by printed and chipless technology from 2009 to 2019 available only from IDTechEx
- Analysis of the technologies being implemented today
- Detailed case histories and company profiles of the many trials and sales successes of printed and chipless RFID
- Sales leads and opportunities
- Unbiased assessment of who will be the winners and losers in the shakeout and what the future will bring
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| EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS | |
| 1. | INTRODUCTION |
| 1.1. | Roadmap for RFID 2009-2019 |
| 1.1. | Malaysian project for Ubiquitous Sensor Networks etc |
| 1.1. | Results achieved in studies of both cost reduction and increase in sales achievable with item level RFID in the supermarket. |
| 1.2. | The main impediments to highest volume RFID |
| 1.2. | What is USN in Korea? |
| 1.2. | What are printed and chipless RFID tags? |
| 1.3. | Why are they needed in supply chains? |
| 1.3. | The attributes of the main types of chipless tag compared with silicon chip alternatives |
| 1.3. | Ultimate potential annual global sales by 2025 of some of the most promising tagged things that have potential for up to one billion tags used yearly. |
| 1.3.1. | Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) |
| 1.3.2. | Pharmaceuticals |
| 1.4. | Where else will chipless RFID be needed? |
| 1.4. | Ultimate potential annual global sales by 2025 for some of the most promising tagged things with potential of over one billion tags yearly. |
| 1.4. | Layers of logistic units |
| 1.4.1. | Ubiquitous Sensor Networks |
| 1.4.2. | Transit |
| 1.4.3. | Self adjusting use by date |
| 1.4.4. | Assets |
| 1.4.5. | Laundry and rented garments |
| 1.4.6. | Books at manufacture |
| 1.4.7. | Postal items |
| 1.4.8. | Conveyances, logistics, traffic management |
| 1.5. | Silicon chips and EPCglobal |
| 1.5.1. | Shortcomings of silicon chip RFID |
| 1.5.2. | Shortcomings of Gen2 EPC - universality by tag complexity |
| 1.5.3. | Robustness of the layered approach backed by EPCglobal |
| 1.5.4. | Implications |
| 1.6. | Constraints on market growth |
| 1.6. | The adoption curve 2004-2018 |
| 1.6.1. | Impediments to highest volume RFID |
| 1.7. | Ultimate potential |
| 1.7.1. | Potential for different applications |
| 1.7.2. | Tag price sensitivity at highest volumes |
| 1.7.3. | Price sensitivity curve for RFID (adoption curve) |
| 1.8. | The overall price-volume sensitivity envelope |
| 2. | PRINTED AND CHIPLESS RFID TECHNOLOGIES |
| 2.1. | Principle of a SAW tag |
| 2.1. | Ten different types of chipless RFID technology |
| 2.2. | The ten types of first generation chipless RFID technologies compared. |
| 2.2. | SAW tag system |
| 2.2. | Comparison - first generation |
| 2.3. | Commercial successes |
| 2.3. | CTR heavy duty SAW RFID tag |
| 2.3. | Advantages and disadvantages of RFSAW devices |
| 2.3.1. | Acoustomagnetic tags - error prevention |
| 2.3.2. | SAW tags - X-CYTE, MicroDesign, iRay Technologies, Thoronics, CTR |
| 2.4. | HID Barkhausen cards - secure access |
| 2.5. | Lessons from the limited success or failure of other approaches |
| 2.6. | Electromagnetic - Flying Null, Link-Sure, Confirm Technologies, REMOSO, Holotag, Zebra Technologies, Scipher TSSI, MXT, Fuji Electric, Unitika |
| 2.7. | Swept RF LC array - Miyake, Lintec, CWOSRFID, Navitas, Checkpoint, Tagsense, RFCode |
| 3. | SECOND GENERATION CHIPLESS RFID - POTENTIALLY OPEN SYSTEMS |
| 3.1. | The main contenders compared |
| 3.1. | Comparison of the main contenders |
| 3.1. | Layout of the ACREO ink stripe RFID |
| 3.2. | Main Features of the M-real/ VTT technology HidE chipless RFID and IDTechEx portrayal of a typical format for conductive ink stripes on this product and the ACREO product about 1centimeter by six centimeters. |
| 3.2. | Detailed comparison of second generation chipless options |
| 3.2. | Electromagnetic conductive ink stripe RFID - Mreal, VTT, Panipol, ACREO, Somark Innovations, Menippos, Printed Systems |
| 3.2.1. | New ink stripe format |
| 3.2.2. | Potential advantages and disadvantages vs silicon |
| 3.2.3. | Market thrust |
| 3.2.4. | Technical development |
| 3.2.5. | The Somark Innovations product |
| 3.2.6. | The Mreal/ VTT Technologies/ Panipol product |
| 3.2.7. | ACREO |
| 3.2.8. | Menippos |
| 3.3. | Printed radar arrays, InkSure, Nicanti and Vubiq |
| 3.3. | Conductance in ohms per square for the different printable conductive materials compared with bulk metal |
| 3.3. | HidE hidden Electronic Product Code production roadmap |
| 3.3.1. | Inksure |
| 3.3.2. | Nicanti |
| 3.3.3. | Vubiq |
| 3.4. | Surface Acoustic Wave - RFSAW, Thoronics |
| 3.4. | Potential applications of HidE ink stripe RFID |
| 3.4. | Comparison of performance of conductive layers for RFID antennas in ohms per square meter |
| 3.4.1. | Potential advantages and disadvantages vs silicon |
| 3.4.2. | Market thrust |
| 3.4.3. | Technical development |
| 3.4.4. | SAW Standards EPCglobal |
| 3.4.5. | Companies seeking SAW open systems - RFSAW, IBM Global Services, Thoronics |
| 3.4.6. | Case study: Highway non-stop tolling USA - RFSAW |
| 3.4.7. | Case study: SAW tags in space on the International Space Station |
| 3.5. | Thin Film Transistor Circuits (TFTCs) |
| 3.5. | Examples of ink suppliers progressing printed RFID antennas etc |
| 3.5. | Strengths and weaknesses of HidE chipless RFID |
| 3.6. | Planned miniature SAW tag with 2.45 GHz dipole antenna |
| 3.6. | Some companies progressing ink jettable conductors |
| 3.6. | Other |
| 3.6.1. | How to Eat RFID |
| 3.7. | Lowest cost antenna design |
| 3.7. | Comparison of metal etch (e.g. copper and aluminium) conductor choices |
| 3.7. | Options for interconnect, antenna and electrode materials to make high speed transistor circuits |
| 3.7.1. | Choice of electrodes and interconnects |
| 3.8. | Inorganic conductors |
| 3.8. | InkTec soluble silver inks. Left: Transparent Electronic Ink. Right: Transparent Inkjet Inks |
| 3.8. | Electroless metal plate - Additive print process with weakly conductive ink (e.g. plastics or carbon) followed by wet metal plating |
| 3.8.2. | Comparison of metal options |
| 3.8.3. | Polymer - metal suspensions |
| 3.8.4. | Silver solution |
| 3.9. | Progress with new conductive ink chemistries and cure processes |
| 3.9. | Electro metal plate - Additive print process with weakly conductive ink (e.g. plastics or carbon) followed by dry metal plating |
| 3.9. | Patterning using InkTec ink |
| 3.10. | Typical SEM images of CU flake C1 6000F. Copper flake |
| 3.10. | Printable metallic conductors cure at LT e.g. silver based ink |
| 3.11. | A typical process cost comparison for RFID antennas |
| 3.12. | Possibilities for various new printed conductors. |
| 4. | THIN FILM TRANSISTOR CIRCUITS (TFTCS) |
| 4.1. | Potential advantages and disadvantages vs silicon |
| 4.1. | Envisaged benefits of TFTCs in RFID and other low-cost applications when compared with envisaged silicon chips |
| 4.1. | Coplanar electrode thin film transistor |
| 4.2. | Options for high speed, low-cost printing of TFTCs |
| 4.2. | Typical features demanded of high volume RFID tags |
| 4.2. | Technical development - geometry, carrier mobility, substrate |
| 4.2.1. | Transistor geometry or mobility? |
| 4.2.2. | The compromises in choosing substrates |
| 4.2.3. | TFTCs best suited for non-RFID applications in the short term? |
| 4.2.4. | A key limitation is frequency |
| 4.2.5. | Low cost not guaranteed |
| 4.3. | Why TFTCs will be the biggest breakthrough in electronic smart packaging |
| 4.3. | Probable value split of the global passive RFID market, by value and numbers as a function of frequency, in 2014 |
| 4.3. | Evolving level of difficulty of substrates in creating low-cost TFTCs |
| 4.4. | Experimental PolyIC (formerly Siemens) 32-bit RFID smart label using printed polymer semiconductors |
| 4.4. | Benefits of the best TFTCs versus very small silicon chips |
| 4.4. | Thin film silicon vs organics or inorganics |
| 4.4.1. | First came thin film silicon |
| 4.4.2. | Organic semiconductors - two choices |
| 4.4.3. | PolyIC developments |
| 4.4.4. | Dai Nippon Printing semiconductor development |
| 4.4.5. | OrganicID, Weyerhauser |
| 4.4.6. | Power conservation - CMOS |
| 4.4.7. | Progress towards flexible/biodegradable substrates for organic TFTs |
| 4.4.8. | Move to inorganic semiconductors |
| 4.4.9. | Kovio - inorganic semiconductors |
| 4.4.10. | Carbon Nanotubes |
| 4.5. | The main options for the printed semiconductor |
| 4.5. | Overall choices of semiconductor |
| 4.5. | Basic setup and issues |
| 4.5.2. | Do organic transistors have a future? |
| 4.5.3. | RFID printed directly on products and packaging |
| 4.6. | Opportunities for active TFTC RFID |
| 4.6. | Chemical structure of polymer FET |
| 4.6. | Typical carrier mobility in different potential TFTC semiconductors (actual and envisaged) vs higher mobility silicon, not printable. |
| 4.6.1. | Company strategy and value chain |
| 4.7. | TFTC players compared |
| 4.7. | Comparison of some of the main options for the semiconductors in printed and potentially printed transistors |
| 4.7. | PolyIC integrated rectifier |
| 4.8. | Development of continuous printing methods by PolyIC |
| 4.8. | Objectives and challenges of organisations developing printed and potentially printed transistor and/ or memory circuits and/or their materials |
| 4.8. | Printed memory for RFID- HP, Ricoh, Matsushita, Thin Film Electronics, Motorola, Fuji Film and others |
| 4.9. | Some of the small group of contestants for large capacity printed memory. |
| 4.9. | Slides from PolyIC show their progress with printed TFTCs for RFID. |
| 4.10. | Printable organic semiconductors - the compromise. |
| 4.11. | Performance of Kovio's ink versus others by mobility |
| 4.12. | Road map |
| 4.13. | Transistors - first significant commercial product in 2009 |
| 4.14. | Requirements of organic electronics to the process |
| 4.15. | Requirements of organic electronics to the substrate |
| 4.16. | Comparison of PET - Surfaces |
| 4.17. | Possible film substrates |
| 4.18. | More possible film substrates |
| 4.19. | Paper as a substrate for organic electronics |
| 4.20. | Value chain for TFTCs and examples of migration of activity for players |
| 4.21. | An all-organic permanent memory transistor |
| 4.22. | TFE memory compared with the much more complex DRAM in silicon |
| 4.23. | Structure of TFE memory |
| 4.24. | TFE priorities for commercialisation of mega memory |
| 5. | DISPLAYS AND SENSORS FOR PRINTED RFID |
| 5.1. | Choice of displays |
| 5.1. | Experimental printed flexible polymer OLED by Dai Nippon Printing |
| 5.1. | Qualities of the various display options for printed RFID |
| 5.1.2. | Thermochromic |
| 5.1.3. | Electrochromic |
| 5.1.4. | Electrophoretic |
| 5.1.5. | Applications of E-paper displays |
| 5.2. | Choice of sensors |
| 5.2. | Advantages and disadvantages of electrophoretic displays |
| 5.2. | Duracell battery tester |
| 5.3. | Interactive game on a beer package by VTT Technologies in Finland |
| 5.3. | Comparison between OLEDs and E-Ink of various parameters |
| 5.4. | Electrochromic display on a Valentine's card sold by Marks and Spencer in the UK in 2004 and electrochromic display with drive circuits in a laminate for smart cards. |
| 5.5. | Principle of operation of electrophoretic displays |
| 5.6. | E-paper displays on a magazine sold in the US in October 2008 |
| 5.7. | Retail Shelf Edge Labels from UPM |
| 5.8. | Amazon Kindle 2, launched in the US in February 2009 |
| 5.9. | Electrophoretic display on a commercially sold financial card |
| 5.10. | Electrophoretic display combined with a UHF RFID tag (silicon chip tag) |
| 6. | MARKETS FOR CHIPLESS RFID 2009-2019 |
| 6.1. | Historical sales of chipless tags |
| 6.1. | An AstraZeneca syringe with chipless RFID tag |
| 6.1. | Historical sales of chipless RFID tags |
| 6.1.2. | Cumulative sales chip vs chipless |
| 6.2. | Chipless share of RFID market by numbers 2009-2019 |
| 6.2. | Cumulative global sales of RFID tags chip vs chipless/printed to end of 2008 in millions |
| 6.2. | Dropping prices for RFID tags |
| 6.3. | Projections for Real Time Locating Systems 2007-2010 |
| 6.3. | Deliveries of chipless/printed tags to date by company |
| 6.3. | Chipless RFID by technology 2009-2019 |
| 6.4. | Unit price trends by chipless technology 2009-2019 |
| 6.4. | Overall global RFID market by numbers 2009-2019 with chipless and chip share |
| 6.5. | Sales in billions of the main types of chipless tag 2009-2019 |
| 6.5. | Chipless share of total RFID market value 2009-2019 |
| 6.6. | Chipless vs chip share of total RFID market by value 2009-2019 |
| 6.6. | Unit price in cents of the various types of chipless RFID 2009-2019 |
| 6.7. | Market value of global sales of chipless tags by technology in millions of dollars 2009-2019 |
| 6.7. | RFID market by system component 2009-2019 |
| 6.8. | RFID market by location of tag 2009-2019 and chipless targets |
| 6.8. | Chipless and chip share of the total global market for RFID tags 2009-2019 |
| 6.9. | Total global RFID market 2009-2019 by value of tags, interrogators and other |
| 6.9. | Move of markets to East Asia 2009, 2014, 2019 |
| 6.10. | Market for EPC and other interrogators 2009-2019 |
| 6.10. | Number (in millions) of tags by application 2009-2019 |
| 6.11. | Average tag price per application in US cents 2009-2019 |
| 6.11. | Ultra low cost RFID labels - market size |
| 6.12. | RFID printed directly onto products and packaging - market size |
| 6.12. | Value of tags by application 2009-2019 (US Dollar Millions) |
| 6.13. | Total spend on RFID systems, service and tags 2009, 2014, 2019 by territory |
| 6.13. | Low cost active RFID - market size |
| 6.14. | Radiation tolerant RFID - market size |
| 6.14. | Market for RFID interrogators by application, US dollars billions |
| 6.15. | Fault tolerant RFID - market size |
| 6.16. | Ultra thin low cost RFID - market size |
| 6.17. | Real Time Locating Systems (RTLS) - market size |
| 7. | TIMELINES FOR PRINTED AND CHIPLESS/PRINTED RFID MARKET PENETRATION |
| 7.1. | Timelines for developments in second generation chipless RFID |
| 7.1. | Timelines for developments in second generation chipless RFID |
| 7.1. | PolyIC roadmap for printed RFID |
| 7.2. | PolyIC roadmap to success for printed organic RFID |
| 7.2. | Timeline for printed RFID |
| 7.3. | Timeline for printed organic electronics |
| 7.3. | DNP roadmap for plastic electronics |
| 7.4. | Timeline for direct printing of chipless RFID onto products and packaging |
| 8. | SUPPLIER AND DEVELOPER PROFILES |
| 8.1. | 3M, USA |
| 8.1. | Printed Flexible Circuits from Soligie |
| 8.2. | Capabilities of Soligie |
| 8.2. | ACREO, Sweden |
| 8.3. | BASF |
| 8.3. | Printed electronics from Soligie |
| 8.4. | Printing presses used for printing electronics at Soligie |
| 8.4. | Dai Nippon Printing |
| 8.5. | IBM, USA |
| 8.5. | An e-label from Soligie |
| 8.6. | A flexible display sample |
| 8.6. | Inksure, Israel and USA |
| 8.7. | Kovio USA |
| 8.7. | Printed electronics samples |
| 8.8. | M-real, Sweden |
| 8.9. | OrganicID, USA |
| 8.10. | Panipol, Finland |
| 8.11. | Philips |
| 8.12. | PolyIC, Germany |
| 8.13. | RFSAW, USA |
| 8.14. | Soligie |
| 8.15. | Toppan Forms |
| 8.16. | Toppan Printing |
| 8.17. | VTT Technology, Finland |
| 8.18. | VubiQ, USA |
| APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY | |
| APPENDIX 2: PRINCIPLES OF OPERATION OF FIRST GENERATION CHIPLESS RFID | |
| APPENDIX 3 THE ASTRAZENECA - SCIENTIFIC GENERICS SUCCESS | |
| APPENDIX 4 GLOSSARY | |
| TABLES | |
| FIGURES |
The biggest opportunity for RFID is the item level tagging of all things.
报告统计信息
| Pages | 286 |
|---|---|
| Tables | 60 |
| Figures | 105 |
| Companies | 30 |
| 预测 | 2019 |
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