IDTechEx 预测,到 2033 年,二次寿命电动车电池市场规模将达到 70 亿美元。

二次寿命电动车电池 2023-2033


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二次寿命电动车电池市场非常重要,原因有很多。包括为未来的能源基础设施增加价值,为电动车电池创造循环经济,以及提供比新电池更低的平准化储能成本。这份 IDTechEx 报告包含了市场预测,以及对主要再利用商和电池诊断参与者、二次寿命电池的技术经济可行性、法规、电池设计、化学成分和技术趋势的深入分析。
IDTechEx forecasts the second-life EV battery market to reach US$7B by 2033. This report gives a holistic overview of the second-life battery market, players, business models and technologies. It assesses the techno-economic feasibility of remanufacturing EV batteries, regional regulations related to End-of-Life batteries, and trends in battery design, chemistry, and wider technology developments.
The second-life EV battery market is one of great importance for many reasons. These include adding value to future energy infrastructure, creating a circular economy for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, and providing a lower levelized cost of storage compared to new batteries. The bulk of EVs currently use Li-ion battery chemistries, and once their eight-to-ten-year initial lifetime has expired, they are usually unsuitable for future EV use. However, battery second use (B2U) extends the lifetime of the EV battery, though several considerations must be made when repurposing retired EV batteries. This includes assessing the health and degradation of retired EV batteries, to ensure their suitability for second-life applications. Depending on performance characteristics, such as battery State of Health (SOH), second-life batteries can be further utilised in less demanding applications, such as stationary energy storage and lower-power electromobility applications.
Li-ion battery circular economy. Source: IDTechEx
The Li-ion EV battery circular economy comprises multiple important steps, requiring decisions from key stakeholders at any one part. Second-life batteries created through a remanufacturing process offer benefits of maximizing battery value and extending battery life, whereas recycling results in batteries losing this value prematurely. A chapter in the report gives a techno-economic analysis of the remanufacturing process, with operations that remanufacturers must consider such as battery procurement, depth of disassembly, testing/grading, and reassembly procedures. Further considerations assess how these processes impact the final pricing of second-life BESS, to be competitive with new BESS. Some repurposer players choose to integrate second-life BESS at pack-level, bypassing a strict remanufacturing process stream. The report elaborates on the various benefits this creates, as well as the considerations that must be made with such a process, e.g., relying more on battery monitoring software during operation.
Within this young yet competitive market, key players are involved in both second-life battery repurposing and retired EV battery health and performance grading. A growing number of repurposer and battery diagnostician start-ups are starting to establish robust supply chains with automotive OEMs. This is to facilitate the streamlined supply of similarly designed batteries into repurposing and battery performance modeling procedures. For modelers, having a large batch of the same type of battery helps with training a data-driven model. For repurposers, having more batteries of similar designs can help with standardizing complex battery disassembly procedures. These start-ups have, combined, received tens of millions of dollars in funding, to help with scaling up operations and developing technology capabilities. For example, several repurposers are looking to develop larger MWh-scale second-life battery systems suitable for front-of-the-meter (FTM) applications.
The capabilities that a second-life battery repurposer presently provide vary significantly. The report analyses these capabilities, which could range from a repurposer only deploying proof-of-concept second-life BESS projects, through to full-service providers who have extensive End-of-Life battery management capabilities. Extensive capabilities could include extending a battery's life for use in a new EV, battery health grading technologies, through to means of providing battery data traceability and visibility to relevant stakeholders, and potentially any recycling capabilities in-house. Typically, these players, who are described as 'market leaders' in the report, have partnered with automotive OEMs to ensure a streamlined supply of retired EV batteries are fed into their repurposing processes.
Analysis matrix, clustering key players in the second-life EV battery market. Source: IDTechEx
A few start-ups' business model is to solely develop and use their proprietary technologies to assess battery health, but they are in the minority. There are various methods to model battery health, performance, and degradation, though none are perfect. These methods include data-driven methods (e.g., with machine learning), physics-based models, and combinations of approaches. The report analyzes player activity in this sub-market sector, and the underlying technologies used to measure retired EV battery performance.
The level of involvement of any one company in the value chain varies, and it is not yet clear which business model will prove most successful in the long-term.
IDTechEx has observed that the US and Europe are key regions with players making great advancement in deploying second-life BESS. 'Large' second-life BESS deployments in China are unlikely to be seen over the next few years, amid a ban from China's National Energy Administration in 2021. However, there is great demand in China for 'small' second-life batteries to be used for backup energy purposes for telecom towers. As repurposers in the US and Europe look to deploy more second-life BESS, the regional distribution of total second-life battery deployments could shift over the next decade.
IDTechEx has continued to follow trends such as EV battery design, cathode use in EV batteries, and battery pack designs. The report addresses how these trends impact the second-life battery market, such as availability of retired EV LFP batteries, ease of serviceability of batteries, and retired EV battery State of Health. For example, the introduction of more cell-to-pack EV batteries could facilitate a faster disassembly process, reducing remanufacturing costs.
Battery End-of-Life issues are recognised as a key topic for the sustainability of the EV industry. While there are some regulations on the recycling/disposal of batteries in general, few regulations exist that specially address the second use of EV batteries. Realising the importance and the potential value brought by second-life batteries, regions including Europe, China and the US are working on their regulatory frameworks to facilitate B2U. The report discusses EU, Chinese and US legislation, including IDTechEx's views on the soon-to-be-adopted EU Battery Regulation and how introduction of the battery passport could cause shifts in player activity.
Legislative activity by region. Source: IDTechEx
10-year market forecasts until 2033 are provided for the second-life EV battery market in system installations (GWh) by application and region, as well as BEV + PHEV battery availability forecasts for this period.
This report also includes over 20 company profiles in the "Company Profile" section, offering further insights such as technology analysis, business models, finances/funding, competitor outlook, and company SWOT analyses.
This report provides the following information:
Battery design, chemistry, and technology developments:
  • Analysis and suggestions of trends that could impact the second-life battery market, both positively and negatively.
  • Key insights into battery design trends, both for EVs and wider battery systems; includes discussion on EV battery design standardization.
  • Developments in BEV car cathodes, and discussion into which chemistries are likely to be more suitable for second-life battery applications.
  • Developments in advanced BMS.
Techno-economic analysis of the remanufacturing process:
  • An in-depth analysis on the overall remanufacturing process, assessing its techno-economic feasibility for the creation of second-life batteries.
  • Provides discussion on the impacts of depth of disassembly; to pack-, module-, and cell-level, both from time and costs and potential benefits of final system functionality.
  • Further discussion on contribution that battery health and performance testing, procurement and reassembly costs has on overall process techno-economic feasibility.
  • Includes a flowchart for key decisions remanufacturers / repurposers must make through a full disassembly process.
  • Pack-level second-life integration considerations.
Battery performance testing and modeling:
  • An insight into the key and supplementary tests that can be performed to assess retired EV battery suitability for second-life applications. This includes tests relevant for assessing battery health and degradation. Includes discussion of any pros and cons of certain battery performance tests.
  • Discussion on the pros and cons of various methods in which to model battery health and degradation. These include data-driven methods, e.g., machine learning / AI, physics-based models, combinations of approaches, etc.
  • Analysis on key players involved in battery diagnostics, including battery performance modeling and analytics and discussion on players' technologies.
Market landscape:
  • An overview of players that operate in the second-life market. Includes automotive OEM activity, battery performance testers, repurposers / remanufacturers, utility companies, etc.
  • In-depth discussion and analyses of key player activity involved in remanufacturing / repurposing retired EV batteries for second-life applications, including technologies and business models.
  • Includes analysis of clusters of players that can be grouped as market leaders, future market contenders, aspiring companies that require further growth / technology development, and players operating in niche 2LB markets.
  • Market barriers that make breaking into or operating in the second-life battery market troublesome.
Regulatory landscape:
  • An overview of legislative activity in key regions involved in End-of-Life battery management.
  • In-depth discussion and analyses on the regulatory landscapes of EU, China and US.
  • Further discussion and analysis on the EU Battery Passport, and how this may impact company activity.
Market Forecasts & Analysis:
  • 10-year granular market forecasts (2023-2033) for the installation of second-life battery systems. Includes, second-life BESS in Europe, the US and China, and second-life batteries used to provide backup energy for base stations in China.
  • 10-year granular market forecasts for total BEV + PHEV battery availability (2023-2033) and BEV battery availability.
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Table of Contents
1.1.Key market conclusions
1.2.Key technology conclusions
1.3.Retired EV batteries for second life
1.4.Battery second use connects the electric vehicle and battery recycling value chains
1.5.Battery second use collection value chain
1.6.Market developments
1.7.Regulatory landscape overview
1.8.Legislative activity by region
1.9.EPR through the value chain in the EU
1.10.Battery Passport through the value chain in the EU
1.11.Shifts in company activity from passport implementation
1.12.Regulatory trends summary table
1.13.Battery design standardization
1.14.LFP vs NMC for second life batteries
1.15.EV battery design/technology trends summary table
1.16.Li-ion battery circular economy
1.17.Remanufacturing processes [1/2]
1.18.Remanufacturing processes [2/2]
1.19.Battery performance and degradation testing
1.20.Battery performance and degradation modeling
1.21.Key battery testing/grading players
1.22.Comparison of key players in 2LB market [1/3]
1.23.Comparison of key players in 2LB market [2/3]
1.24.Comparison of key players in 2LB market [3/3]
1.25.Player relationships: Market leaders
1.26.Player relationships: Future contenders
1.27.Player relationships: Aspiring companies
1.28.Key player geographic map (by HQ)
1.29.Market barriers
1.30.Market landscape summary
1.31.Annual EV LFP battery availability forecast (GWh) 2023-2033
1.32.Second life market forecast description
1.33.Second-life market forecast (GWh) 2023-2033
1.34.2L market forecast - Batteries deployed by application and region (GWh) 2023-2033
1.35.Second-life market value forecast (US$B) 2023-2033
1.36.Retired EV battery availability vs global stationary storage demand
1.37.Forecast for contribution of 2L BESS to stationary BESS market (GWh) 2023-2033
1.38.Company Profiles (Hyperlinks)
2.1.1.Why and when do batteries fail?
2.1.2.What is the 'second life' of EV batteries?
2.1.3.Clarification of terminologies
2.1.4.Why does battery second use matter?
2.1.5.Battery remanufacturing, first-life extension, or recycling?
2.2.Battery second use (B2U) value chain
2.2.1.Battery second use connects the electric vehicle and battery recycling value chains
2.2.2.Battery second use collection value chain
2.3.Applications and project examples
2.3.1.Second-life battery applications
2.3.2.Different battery sizes for different uses
2.3.3.Second-life stationary battery storage examples
3.1.1.Lack of policy and regulation
3.1.2.Legislative activity by region
3.1.3.Regulatory landscape overview
3.2.EU Regulatory landscape
3.2.1.Europe regulation introduction
3.2.2.EPR through the value chain in the EU
3.2.3.European Commission: The Innovation Deal
3.2.4.EU to review its regulatory framework for battery second use
3.2.5.Key findings from the European ID and Battery Directive changes
3.2.6.Further EU regulation announcements and targets
3.2.7.Battery regulation - Annex VII
3.2.8.EU Battery Passport
3.2.9.EU Battery Passport discussion
3.2.10.Battery Passport through the value chain in the EU
3.2.11.Shifts in company activity from passport implementation
3.3.China regulatory landscape
3.3.1.Battery traceability in China
3.3.2.China's Traceability Management Platform
3.3.3.Other Chinese specifications
3.3.4.Regulatory frameworks for battery second use in China
3.3.5.Ban for large scale 2L ESS
3.4.US regulatory landscape
3.4.1.UL Certifications in the US
3.4.2.Inflation Reduction Act
3.5.Regulatory landscape conclusions
3.5.1.Regulatory landscape conclusions
4.1.Battery developments summary
4.2.Battery design standardization
4.3.Automotive format choices
4.4.Battery pack materials
4.5.Shifts in cell and pack design
4.6.Eliminating the battery module? [1/2]
4.7.Eliminating the battery module? [2/2]
4.8.Will the module be eliminated?
4.9.Serviceable batteries (Aceleron)
4.10.Aceleron: Future considerations
4.11.Aceleron: SWOT Analysis
4.12.Li-ion technology diversification
4.13.LFP vs NMC for second life batteries
4.14.Cathode demand for BEV cars (GWh)
4.15.BMS developments
4.16.EV battery design/technology trends summary table
5.1.1.Li-ion battery circular economy
5.2.Bottlenecks in the remanufacturing process
5.2.1.Bottlenecks in the process (1/2)
5.2.2.Bottlenecks in the process (2/2)
5.3.Overview of the remanufacturing process
5.3.1.Disassembly process
5.3.2.Costs and time for the disassembly process
5.3.3.Costs and considerations of level of disassembly
5.3.4.Disassembly costs vs end-user price of 2LB systems
5.3.5.Disassembly and reassembly costs vs end-user price of 2LB systems
5.3.6.Reassembly costs continued
5.3.7.Battery procurement costs discussion
5.3.8.Summary of remanufacturing considerations
5.3.9.Integrating 2LB at pack-level
5.3.10.Pack-level repurposer technologies
5.4.Remanufacturing summary and conclusions
5.4.1.Advantages and disadvantages to depth of disassembly and reconfiguration
5.4.2.Battery remanufacturing decision flow diagram
5.4.3.Charts for remanufacturing times and costs
5.4.4.Remanufacturing costs and times summary table
5.4.5.Techno-economic feasibility conclusions [1/2]
5.4.6.Techno-economic feasibility conclusions [2/2]
6.1.1.Introduction: EOL and battery tests
6.1.2.Battery and testing definitions
6.2.Key tests for second life battery testing
6.2.1.State of Charge (SOC)
6.2.2.Battery Capacity
6.2.3.State of Health (SOH)
6.2.4.Electrochemical impedance
6.3.Supplementary tests for second life battery testing
6.3.1.Pulse charging and discharging
6.3.2.Cycle testing
6.3.3.State of Power
6.3.5.SEI formation and growth
6.3.6.Capturing SEI layer with XPS
6.3.7.Capturing porosity of SEI layer with TEM
6.3.8.Summary table of battery performance tests
7.1.Introduction: Remaining Useful Life
7.2.Flowcharts for determining RUL
7.3.Flowcharts for determining RUL via machine-learning (ML)
7.4.What is measured to determine RUL from a data-driven approach?
7.5.Data-driven approaches continued
7.6.Physics-based modeling [1/3]
7.7.Physics-based modeling [2/3]
7.8.Physics-based modeling [3/3]
7.9.Four key approaches to modeling battery degradation
8.1.ReJoule's BattScan technology
8.2.ReJoule's model development
8.3.ReJoule future technology developments
8.4.Oorja Energy's hybrid modeling approach
8.5.Silver Power Systems
8.6.Ultrasound to measure battery performance?
8.7.TITAN AES technology
8.8.Relectrify technology
8.9.Relectrify business model
8.10.ACCURE's battery intelligence cloud platform
8.11.TWAICE's battery analytics platform
8.12.Qnovo's battery management software
8.14.Key battery testing/grading players
8.15.Market barriers and benefits for modelers
8.16.Concluding remarks: Battery testing/modeling
9.1.1.Executive Summary
9.1.2.Introduction to second life EV batteries
9.2.Overview of players
9.2.1.Overview of key services offered by companies
9.2.2.Key automotive OEM activity [1/2]
9.2.3.Key automotive OEM activity [2/2]
9.2.4.Automotive OEM developments [1/2]
9.2.5.Automotive OEM developments [2/2]
9.2.6.Key diagnostic / remanufacturing players
9.2.7.Key players with wider service capabilities
9.2.8.Key energy companies / full service providers
9.2.9.Key player geographic map (by HQ)
9.3.Key players in the second life EV battery market
9.3.1.Comparison of key players in 2LB market [1/3]
9.3.2.Comparison of key players in 2LB market [2/3]
9.3.3.Comparison of key players in 2LB market [3/3]
9.3.4.IDTechEx index for companies
9.3.5.Player relationships: Market leaders
9.3.6.Player relationships: Future contenders
9.3.7.Player relationships: Aspiring companies
9.3.8.Funding between companies
9.4.Market leaders
9.4.1.Spiers New Technologies
9.4.2.Spiers New Technologies: SWOT Analysis
9.4.3.ECO STOR AS overview
9.4.4.ECO STOR AS technologies
9.4.5.ECO STOR AS business model
9.4.6.ECO STOR AS partners
9.4.7.ECO STOR AS: SWOT Analysis
9.4.8.Connected Energy overview
9.4.9.Connected Energy technologies [1/2]
9.4.10.Connected Energy technologies [2/2]
9.4.11.Connected Energy supply and logistics
9.4.12.Connected Energy: Battery Storage as a Service
9.4.13.Connected Energy regional activity
9.4.14.Connected Energy: SWOT Analysis
9.5.Future contenders
9.5.1.Smartville Inc.
9.5.2.Smartville Inc.: SWOT Analysis
9.5.3.B2U Storage Solutions
9.5.4.B2U Storage Solutions: SWOT Analysis
9.5.5.Brill Power
9.5.6.Brill Power: SWOT Analysis
9.6.Aspiring contenders
9.6.1.RePurpose Energy
9.6.2.RePurpose Energy: SWOT Analysis
9.6.3.BeePlanet Factory
9.6.4.BeePlanet Factory technology specifications
9.6.5.BeePlanet Factory: SWOT Analysis
9.6.7.ReJoule technology
9.6.8.ReJoule: SWOT Analysis
9.6.9.AceOn Group
9.6.10.AceOn Group: SWOT Analysis
9.7.Niche 2LB players Batteries Batteries technologies Batteries: SWOT Analysis Life Battery LLC Life Battery LLC: SWOT Analysis
10.1.Market barriers [1/3]
10.2.Market barriers [2/3]
10.3.Market barriers [3/3]
11.1.Concluding remarks [1/3]
11.2.Concluding remarks [2/3]
11.3.Concluding remarks [3/3]
12.1.Forecasts introduction
12.2.Forecast assumptions and methodology [1/2]
12.3.Forecast assumptions and methodology [2/2]
12.4.Forecast calculations explanation
12.5.Annual EV battery availability forecast (GWh) 2023-2033
12.6.Availability forecast (excluding car BEV) (GWh) 2023-2033
12.7.Li-ion technology diversification
12.8.LFP vs NMC for second life batteries
12.9.Cathode demand for BEV cars (GWh)
12.10.Annual EV LFP battery availability forecast (GWh) 2023-2033
12.11.Second-life market forecast and assumptions [1/2]
12.12.Second-life market forecast and assumptions [2/2]
12.13.Second-life market forecast (GWh) 2023-2033
12.14.2L market forecast - batteries deployed by application and region (GWh) 2023-2033
12.15.Second-life market value forecast (US$B) 2023-2033
12.16.Retired EV battery availability vs global stationary storage demand
12.17.Forecast for contribution of 2L BESS to stationary BESS market (GWh) 2023-2033
13.1.2ndLife Batteries
13.2.2nd Life Battery LLC
13.3.Aceleron Energy
13.4.AceOn Group
13.5.B2U Storage Solutions
13.6.BeePlanet Factory
13.7.Brill Power
13.8.Connected Energy
13.9.ACCURE Battery Intelligence
13.12.Ooria Energy
13.17.RePurpose Energy
13.18.Smartville Inc.
13.19.Spiers New Technologies
13.21.Silver Power Systems
13.22.Titan Advanced Energy Solutions

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