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Hybrid and Pure Electric Cars 2012-2022

Technology and adoption analysis for electric vehicles; on- and off-road cars

Updated in August 2013
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Description
Electric vehicles just became exciting. For 111 years, electric cars that rely only on a battery - "pure EVs" - have had a range of only 30-50 miles and the humble golf car has been the only type selling in hundreds of thousands every year. However, huge changes were announced in 2009/10. Electric vehicles are penetrating the market rapidly to constitute 35% of the cars made in 2025 - probably 25% hybrids, 10% pure EV but pure EV may be winning by then. Any motor manufacturer without a compelling line up of electric vehicles is signing its death warrant.
 
These changes include:
 
  • Launch of cars that have a range of 250 miles or more in pure electric mode, including a pure EV family car made in China and plug in hybrid gasoline-electric and diesel-electric cars.
  • Launch of the Toyota Prius plug in hybrid that is very attractive to over one million purchasers of the existing Prius mild hybrid and millions of others. 95% of Prius owners would buy another.
  • First full production of the beautiful Tesla pure EV luxury sports car and other sports cars which silently outperform conventional equivalents.
  • Large initial orders show that this can be a multibillion dollar sector of the EV car business, particularly if we include new luxury hybrids such as the gorgeous Fiskar Karma and what may result from Ferrari, Porsche and others racing to catch up.
  • Lithium electric car batteries from companies such as LGChem are claimed to last at least ten years, not the more usual three years. This hugely improves the economics of all EVs with range acceptable to mainstream purchasers.
  • President Obama's Stimulus Bill granted $14.4 billion for hybrids and huge sums have been allotted by other governments across the world to develop and subsidise use of EV cars to save the planet and the car industry and provide independence from dwindling oil reserves.
 
Global sales of electric cars number thousands*
 
*For the full forecast data please purchase this report
 
Source: IDTechEx
 
Within the decade, it will be possible for some suppliers to offer hybrid cars and no price premium to conventional cars in the way that the Japanese took the Western car market by storm 20 years ago by offering excellent vehicles with most accessories thrown in free. There would then be no strong reason why anyone would want the conventional alternative.
 
This unique report takes a detailed look at the market size from 2012-2022 and the government support, technology and new model launches that will get it there. It assesses work on energy harvesting in vehicles from light, heat and shock absorbers, new battery technologies, fuel cells, flywheels and other advances and clarifies which really matter.
 
Here you can also learn which countries and companies have the most impressive choice of models and why.
The only detailed and up to date critical analysis of both pure and hybrid EV cars worldwide
Entirely researched in 2009 and 2010 and extensively updated in 2012, this report gives the only detailed and up to date critical analysis of both pure and hybrid EV cars worldwide. With over 245 pages and over 175 figures and tables including many new and detailed summaries and forecasts, it gives the future in the context of the past including the mistakes and inspired moves for over 100 years.
 
Global sales of electric cars total value in billions of dollars*
 
*For the full forecast data please purchase this report
 
Source: IDTechEx
 
This report looks closely at the forceful new market drivers such as peak oil and government subsidies but it does not dwell on the well understood global warming debate that is also now driving things forward. Instead, it provides essential data useful to all investors, manufacturers, developers, component suppliers, marketing outlets, legislators and those planning financial support. Which will be the prosperous niches? What is the neglected part of leader Toyota's multibillion dollar business in EVs? Where is the action globally? Why is the geometry of the EV about to change? What about supercapacitors, supercabatteries, zinc air batteries and even transparent solar cells fixed over the windows? It is all here, provided by a global team of technical experts who have been tracking this industry for ten years and writing highly acclaimed forecasts about it.
Free Electric Vehicle Encyclopedia when you purchase this report
Electric Vehicle experts IDTechEx have encapsulated over ten years of research and analysis into an easy to digest electric vehicle encyclopedia. All the technologies are covered and supported with over 100 tables and illustrations and over 200 acronyms and terms are explained. This encyclopedia, worth $1,500, is given as a free PDF download when you buy this report.
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1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1.The market for electric cars
1.1.Global sales of electric cars number thousands, 2012-2022, rounded
1.1.Global sales of electric cars number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012-2022, rounded
1.2.Value of the hybrid, pure electric and total electric car market in billions of dollars 2010-2020
1.2.Global sales of electric cars ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars, 2012-2022, rounded
1.2.Hybrid vs pure EV forecasts
1.3.Will cars be plugged in during a journey?
1.3.Global sales of electric cars total value in billions of dollars 2012-2022, rounded
1.3.Global electric car sales in thousands for 2011 and 2012 by manufacturer including neighbourhood electric vehicles NEV but not golf cars.
1.4.Toyota Prius sales 1997-2010 by region in thousands
1.4.Global pure electric car sales 2009-2020 excluding golf cars and cumulative number of new models since 2000
1.4.Geographical demand
1.5.Progress of the market leader Toyota
1.5.IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2010-2020 in units and %
1.5.Global sales of EV cars, including hybrids, pure EVs (including golf cars), total in thousands of unites and ones that can be plugged in 2010-2020
1.6.IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2010-2020 in units and % rounded
1.6.Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally
1.6.Golf cars will have little growth.
1.7.Technical progress
1.7.Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies in number thousands 2012 to 2022, rounded
1.7.Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally, market share and market drivers
1.8.Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies in number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
1.8.Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
1.8.Pure electric vehicles in Europe
1.9.Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies total value in billions of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
1.9.IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales 2009-2025
1.10.Approximate number of new hybrid car models planned by year 2000 to 2013
1.10.Cumulative number of hybrid car models and projected number of hybrid sales to 2020
1.11.Rough count of new models of hybrid car from 2009-2013
1.11.Global number of on-road plug in cars - hybrid and pure electric - and number routinely plugged in away from home in thousands 2010-2020
1.12.Crude oil prices 2003-2008 $/barrel
1.12.The dominant countries launching hybrid models from 2009-2013
1.13.Global number of on-road plug in cars - hybrid and pure electric - and number routinely plugged in away from home in thousands 2010-2020
1.13.Global oil reserves, production and life
1.14.Clockwise from top left: BYD E6 from China, Tesla, Fisker Karma and Prius
1.15.Oil reserve life in years by country
1.16.US oil production and imports
1.17.Distribution of electric vehicles in circulation according to model
1.18.Number of electric 4-wheelers in Europe
1.19.Number of electric 2-wheelers in Europe
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.The world wakes up to global warming and oil running out
2.1.Geographical distribution of 80 companies making or intending to make electric cars
2.1.European Green Car Initiative approximate R&D budget 2010 to 2013 in millions of Euros
2.2.Global stimulus for fuel efficient cars in 2009
2.2.GE WattStation
2.2.Danger signs
2.3.Government support
2.3.Carbon Intensity CO2 kg/kWh and % Fossil fuel in power sector
2.3.80 examples of manufacturers and intending manufacturers of EV cars
2.4.LCA greenhouse emissions of a compact car with different drive trains
2.4.Reluctant Australia
2.5.Formidable initiatives in the USA
2.5.Carbon emissions, in grams CO2 per km, of a selection of cars for sale in the UK
2.6.Europe the laggard
2.6.1.Impressive efforts in Germany
2.7.Formidable East Asia
2.8.Rapid increase in number of manufacturers
2.9.Providing charging infrastructure
2.9.1.Recharging points
2.9.2.Battery changing points
2.9.3.Can the grid cope?
2.10.How green are electric vehicles really?
3.PURE ELECTRIC CARS
3.1.The arguments against
3.1.Trouvé pure EV car in 1881
3.1.15 examples of golf EV manufacturers
3.2.Red Bug pure EV in 1930
3.2.Déjà vu
3.3.Examples of pure EV cars
3.3.Sinclair C5
3.3.1.Nissan - most ambitious of all?
3.3.2.Here come the Chinese - BYD and Brilliance
3.3.3.High performance pure EVs - Tesla
3.3.4.Pininfarina Bolloré Bluecar
3.3.5.Heuliez Friendly
3.3.6.REVA
3.3.7.Coda - Hafei Saibao, China
3.3.8.ElBil Norge Buddy
3.3.9.Toyota
3.3.10.Detroit Electric
3.3.11.Tara Tiny
3.3.12.Aixam
3.3.13.Zap Alias
3.3.14.Mitsubishi
3.3.15.Golf EVs
3.3.16.Energy positive solar car in 2013
3.4.Aptera
3.5.Gemcars
3.6.The BYD E6 pure EV car
3.7.Tesla Motors Roadster pure EV performance car
3.8.Pininfarina Bolloré Bluecar showing solar panels on roof and hood
3.9.Pininfarina Bolloré Bluecar cross section
3.10.Heuliez Friendly
3.11.REVA pure EV car
3.12.The all-electric Coda car, made in China
3.13.Buddy pure EV
3.14.Planned Toyota pure EV city car
3.15.Tara Tiny
3.16.Aixam Mega City
3.17.ZAP Alias pure EV three wheeler
3.18.Mitsubishi pure EV car
3.19.Tonaro from China
3.20.Suzhou Eagle two and four seat golf cars from China
3.21.Yongkang Fourstar from China
3.22.Shadong Wuzheng golf cars
4.HYBRID CARS
4.1.Construction and advantages of hybrids
4.1.Evolution of EV design for on-road and many non-road vehicles
4.1.Major market drivers for growth in hybrid sales
4.2.Objectives of the Ricardo QinetiQ diesel hybrid vs the Prius gasoline hybrid
4.2.Chevrolet Volt internal structure
4.2.Evolution
4.3.Chevrolet Volt
4.3.Chevrolet Volt drive train
4.3.Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
4.4.Hybrid electric vehicles and associated events 1876-2011
4.4.Chevrolet Volt battery, generator and drive unit positioning
4.4.Bright Automotive SUV
4.5.Market drivers
4.5.Average annual fuel consumption in US gallons by vehicle type
4.5.1.Leading indicators
4.6.History of hybrids and planned models to 2013
4.6.Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
5.KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES FOR CARS
5.1.Three key enabling technologies become six
5.1.Planned Jaguar long range supercar with two micro turbine range extenders generating 140kW total
5.2.Examples of range extenders using a generator and ones with inherent electricity generation marked fuelgen
5.2.Many new forms of range extender
5.3.Supercapacitors
5.3.Performance of new and improved supercapacitors and their variants
5.4.Cars with photovoltaic harvesting. Top pure electric, bottom the hybrid Fisker Karma car.
5.4.Energy harvesting
5.5.Printed electronics and electrics
5.5.Drayson electric racing car in the UK pioneers many new technologies including continuous charging and structural batteries
5.6.Millenworks light hybrid vehicle ie not plug-in.
5.6.Structural components and smart skin
5.7.Innovative charging
5.8.Military land vehicles and in-wheel motors
5.9.Third generation traction batteries
6.HYBRID CAR MODES AND TECHNOLOGY
6.1.Series vs parallel hybrid
6.1.Some hybrid variants
6.1.Three generations of range extender with examples of construction, manufacturer and power output
6.2.Evolution of plug in vs mild hybrids
6.2.Modes of operation of hybrids
6.2.1.Plug in hybrids
6.2.2.Charge-depleting mode
6.2.3.Blended mode
6.2.4.Charge-sustaining mode
6.2.5.Mixed mode
6.3.Microhybrid is a misnomer
6.3.Trend to deep hybridisation
6.4.Evolution of hybrid structure
6.4.Deep hybridisation
6.5.Hybrid vehicle price premium
6.5.Price premium for hybrid buses
6.6.Three generations of lithium-ion battery with technical features that are sometimes problematical
6.6.Battery cost and performance are key
6.7.Tradeoff of energy storage technologies
6.7.Battery price assisting price of hybrid and pure electric vehicles as a function of power stored.
6.8.Probable future improvement in parameters of lithium-ion batteries for pure electric and hybrid EVs
6.8.Ultracapacitors=supercapacitors
6.9.Where supercapacitors fit in
6.9.Comparison of battery technologies
6.10.Where supercapacitors fit in
6.10.Advantages and disadvantages
6.11.Can supercapacitors replace batteries?
6.11.Energy density vs power density for storage devices
6.12.Indicative trend of charging and electrical storage for large hybrid vehicles over the next decade.
6.12.Supercabatteries or bacitors
6.13.What is a range extender?
6.13.Evolution of construction of range extenders over the coming decade
6.14.Examples of range extender technology in the shaft vs no shaft categories
6.14.What will be required of a range extender 2012-2022
6.15.Three generations of range extender
6.15.Illustrations of range extender technologies over the coming decade with "gen" in red for those that have inherent ability to generate electricity
6.15.1.First generation range extender technology
6.15.2.Second generation range extender technology
6.15.3.Third generation range extender technology
6.16.Fuel cell range extenders
6.16.The principle of the Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cells
6.17.Trend of size of the largest (in red) and smallest (in green) fuel cell sets used in 98 bus trials worldwide over the last twenty years.
6.17.Big effect of many modest electricity sources combined
6.18.Energy harvesting on and in electric vehicles
6.18.Evolution of traction batteries and range extenders for large hybrid electric vehicles as they achieve longer all-electric range over the next decade.
6.19.Main modes of rotational energy harvesting in vehicles
6.19.Trend to high voltage
6.20.Component choices for energy density/ power density
6.20.Main forms of photovoltaic energy harvesting on vehicles
6.21.Maximum power from the most powerful forms of energy harvesting on or in vehicles
6.21.Trend to distributed components
6.22.Trend to flatness then smart skin
6.22.Hybrid bus with range improved by a few percent using solar panels
6.23.Possible trend in battery power storage and voltage of power distribution
6.24.Mitsubishi view of hybrid vehicle powertrain evolution
6.25.Flat lithium-ion batteries for a car and, bottom, UAVs
6.26.Supercapacitors that facilitate fast charging and discharging of the traction batteries are spread out on a bus roof
7.MARKET FORECASTS
7.1.Car production
7.1.Global bicycle and car production millions
7.1.Crude oil prices 2003-2008 $/barrel
7.2.Global oil reserves, production and life
7.2.US oil production and imports
7.2.Cars and crude oil
7.2.2.Technical progress
7.3.Hybrid cars
7.3.Global sales of EV cars, hybrids, pure EVs and total in numbers 2010-2020
7.3.Global sales of EV cars, including hybrids, pure EVs (including golf cars), total in thousands of units and ones that can be plugged in 2010-2020
7.3.1.History of hybrid car sales
7.4.Forecasts 2010-2020
7.4.HEV battery sales by type 2000-2006
7.4.Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
7.5.Prius US sales in units 2000-2008
7.5.Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
7.5.Pure EVs
7.5.1.Total market
7.5.2.Will sales of pure electric cars overtake hybrids?
7.5.3.Market excluding golf cars
7.5.4.Golf cars
7.5.5.Fuel cell EVs
7.6.Battery trends
7.6.US hybrid sales by month showing sharp drop in 2008 and early 2009
7.6.Estimates for historical global hybrid car sales in units by territory with % of whole.
7.7.Prius US sales in number and percent of US hybrid market
7.7.Estimates for historical global hybrid car sales in units by territory with % of whole
7.8.Prius US sales in number and percent of US hybrid market
7.8.IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2010-2020 in units and %
7.9.Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally, market share and market drivers
7.9.Hybrid vehicle sales by manufacturer 2000-2006
7.10.Reported hybrid vehicle sales in the USA as a percentage of total new light vehicle sales in March 2009
7.10.IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales 2009-2025
7.11.Approximate number of hybrid models actual and planned by year 2000 to 2013
7.11.Global hybrid vehicle market by country % 2007
7.12.Hybrid vehicle purchases by state in the USA in units 2007
7.12.Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies in number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
7.13.Fuel cell EVs compared with battery pure EVs and ICE hybrids
7.13.US hybrid vehicle sales by manufacturer percentage 2007
7.14.Hybrid vehicle sales by model
7.15.2006 forecast of total car sales by region 2006/2011 and 2016 in millions of units
7.16.IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2010-2020 in units and %.
7.17.Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally and market drivers
7.18.IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales
7.19.Total sales and hybrids
7.20.Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies in number thousands 2012 to 2022, rounded
7.21.Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
7.22.Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies total value in billions of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
7.23.Rechargeable battery sales by type 1972-2010
8.GAS STATIONS BY COUNTRY
8.1.What level of recharging infrastructure is needed?
8.1.Number of gas stations ("service stations") by region in 2010
APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY
TABLES
FIGURES
 

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Electric vehicles will penetrate the market rapidly to constitute 35% of the cars made in 2025

보고서 통계

Pages 168
Tables 36
Figures 104
전망 2022
 

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