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Car Traction Batteries - the New Gold Rush 2010-2020
Updated Q3 2010
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New market for batteries that propel hybrid and pure electric cars
This report is intended for industrialists, investors, market researchers, legislators and others interested in the large new market now being created for batteries that propel hybrid and pure electric cars along the road. It will also inform those studying associated technology and industrial and government initiatives and legislation. The report is suitable for the non technical reader, with introductory appendices and glossary for those new to the subject. However, there are many comparison graphs, tables and sections concerning technical aspects, so those with appropriate technical training will find much to interest them as well.
Few markets have ignored the global financial meltdown and continued to grow extremely rapidly. Car traction batteries are one of these, so it is not surprising that they are referred to as the new gold rush. It is now powered by huge government and corporate investment and a flood of exciting new models of electric car.
One way of prospering in a gold rush is to "get there first and sell shovels" and, in this report, we do cover the supply of key materials, such as lithium and lanthanum, for the new types of battery that are rapidly being adopted. We also compare the different options of chemistry and construction and the nanotechnology and other materials skills being brought to bear. These are the shovels. However, the main emphasis in this report is on detailed forecasting by application, region etc of both the new cars and the batteries that go in them, including prices and numbers. There are also detailed profiles of over 50 organisations and their alliances involved in these batteries. Many are putting down the "entry fee" of one billion dollars to have a chance of being a world leader in traction batteries for cars.
Researched in 2009
This report leads you to commercial success. It is the only up to date, comprehensive reference book on car traction batteries worldwide. Researched in 2009 by a team that has been studying the market for ten years, the report is updated monthly because the subject is moving so fast. You will therefore get the very latest version when you place your order. Indeed, in addition, we provide one hour of free consultancy by phone or email to answer any further questions after you have read the report. It is a sister publication to the popular IDTechEx report "Hybrid and Pure Electric Cars 2010-2020" and other reports on batteries for portable devices, thin film batteries and so on.
The market for car traction batteries will be over $37 billion in 2020. How do we get there? Who will be the leading supplier? Who has the best chemistry and the largest financial commitment? Who has the largest amount of appropriate experience and who has their batteries designed into what new cars? What small companies would be interesting acquisitions and what are the objectives of the giant corporations entering part of this value chain for the first time? It is all here, pulled together with summary tables, graphs and illustrations and no equations. This is a high stakes game that will be key to saving the planet and the car industry and those hit by dependence on declining oil reserves. Appropriately, it has been said that, "In future, the battery is the car". The winning supplier will create a new, highly profitable ten billion dollar activity and there will be many prospering niche players and materials and technology suppliers.
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| EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS | |
| 1. | INTRODUCTION |
| 1.1. | Success with other EVs |
| 1.1. | Series parallel hybrid by Pieper of Belgium in 1899 - principle of today's best selling hybrid the Toyota Prius. |
| 1.1. | Prius NiMH traction battery evolution |
| 1.2. | Applicants to accelerate the manufacturing and deployment of the next generation of US batteries and electric vehicles |
| 1.2. | Toyota Prius NiMH traction battery |
| 1.2. | Sad history of on-road electric cars then a tipping point |
| 1.2.1. | Why on-road cars are so very different |
| 1.2.2. | Dramatic tipping point in 2009 - the market comes alive |
| 1.2.3. | Consumer acceptance of the latest hybrids |
| 1.2.4. | Rapid recent progress with pure electric vehicles |
| 1.3. | The ideal car traction battery |
| 1.3. | Toyota Highlander Hybrid Battery |
| 1.3.1. | All hybrids |
| 1.3.2. | Mild hybrids |
| 1.3.3. | Plug in hybrids |
| 1.3.4. | Pure electric vehicles |
| 1.3.5. | Recent progress |
| 1.4. | Traction battery achievements and problems so far |
| 1.4. | Changfeng CS7 |
| 1.4.1. | Batteries for the best seller - the Prius hybrid |
| 1.4.2. | China resurgent |
| 1.4.3. | Specifications |
| 1.4.4. | Changfeng hybrid |
| 1.4.5. | Bright Automotive hybrid |
| 1.4.6. | Chevrolet Volt hybrid |
| 1.4.7. | Pure electric family cars - the race for range |
| 1.4.8. | New Power of China pure electric |
| 1.4.9. | BYD of China pure electric and hybrid |
| 1.4.10. | Tesla pure electric |
| 1.4.11. | Lightning pure electric |
| 1.4.12. | Subaru Stella pure electric |
| 1.4.13. | Nissan Leaf |
| 1.5. | Design considerations |
| 1.5. | Zhong Tai pure electric car by New Power of China |
| 1.5.1. | Future evolution of hybrids and pure electric cars |
| 1.5.2. | Battery performance over time - battery life |
| 1.5.3. | Battery state of charge |
| 1.5.4. | Depth of discharge affects life |
| 1.5.5. | Capacity rating |
| 1.5.6. | Daily depth of discharge |
| 1.5.7. | Charging and discharging rates |
| 1.5.8. | Plug in requirements align with pure electric cars |
| 1.5.9. | Hybrids need power and pure electrics need capacity - for now |
| 1.5.10. | Parallel hybrids differ |
| 1.5.11. | Plug in hybrids try to be the best of both worlds |
| 1.5.12. | Watt hours per mile |
| 1.5.13. | Charging rates |
| 1.5.14. | Custom packaging |
| 1.6. | Charging infrastructure |
| 1.6. | The BYD E6 pure electric car |
| 1.6.1. | Need for standard connection |
| 1.6.2. | Need for widespread charging infrastructure |
| 1.6.3. | Battery changing as an alternative, Volt, e-Smart, Bee |
| 1.7. | Government support |
| 1.7. | Tesla Motors Roadster pure electric performance car |
| 1.7.1. | The Chinese billions |
| 1.7.2. | The Obama billions |
| 1.8. | Tesla battery pack with coolant tubes at bottom. |
| 1.9. | The Lighting pure electric sports car |
| 1.10. | Subaru Stella pure electric vehicle |
| 1.11. | The planned Nissan Leaf pure electric car |
| 1.12. | Nissan leaf lithium traction batteries |
| 1.13. | Nissan Leaf charging points |
| 1.14. | Nissan Leaf dashboard |
| 1.15. | Possible evolution of affordable, mainstream electric cars showing the convergence of hybrid and a pure electric technologies |
| 1.16. | Frazer Nash Namir |
| 1.17. | Battery specification based on end of life |
| 1.18. | Car traction battery operating requirements compared |
| 1.19. | Example of a proposed SAE J1772™ charging interface for cars |
| 1.20. | Toyota Prius being charged |
| 1.21. | Chevrolet Volt |
| 1.22. | Electric Smart car |
| 1.23. | Bee's Bee. One four-seater compact car with fast change battery |
| 2. | CHEMICAL, PHYSICAL AND ELECTRICAL OPTIONS COMPARED |
| 2.1. | Comparison of electrochemical options |
| 2.1. | Volumetric vs gravimetric energy density of batteries used in vehicles. |
| 2.1. | Properties of metals used in metal air batteries |
| 2.1.1. | Volumetric vs gravimetric energy density |
| 2.1.2. | Supercapacitors can help |
| 2.1.3. | Lithium challenges |
| 2.1.4. | Lead acid is simple |
| 2.1.5. | Needs |
| 2.2. | Lead acid improvement |
| 2.2. | Examples of energy density figures for batteries, supercapacitors and other energy sources |
| 2.2. | Energy density vs power density for storage devices |
| 2.2.1. | Bipolar lead acid |
| 2.2.2. | Nickel metal hydride |
| 2.2.3. | Sodium |
| 2.2.4. | Zinc air |
| 2.2.5. | The many lithium options |
| 2.3. | Department of Energy evaluation |
| 2.3. | ReVolt comparison of battery parameters with zinc air |
| 2.3. | Comparison of lead acid and lithium traction batteries in cars |
| 2.4. | How to reduce the cost and increase the performance of lithium car traction batteries. |
| 2.4. | Properties of various lithium technologies for traction batteries compared to zinc air |
| 2.4. | New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization evaluation |
| 2.5. | How to improve lithium batteries |
| 2.5. | LiFeBATT 40138 Cell |
| 2.5.1. | View of US Department of Energy panel of experts |
| 2.5.2. | Improving the charge-discharge speed of lithium batteries |
| 2.5.3. | Improving life |
| 2.6. | Intrinsically safe lithium batteries |
| 2.6. | Traction battery nominal energy storage vs battery pack voltage for mild hybrids in red, plug on hybrids in blue and pure electric cars in green. |
| 2.6.1. | Intrinsically safe against fire |
| 2.6.2. | Intrinsically safe against over charging |
| 2.6.3. | Trends in energy storage vs battery pack voltage |
| 2.7. | Supercabatteries |
| 2.7.1. | Lead carbon |
| 2.8. | Materials vulnerable to price hikes |
| 2.8.1. | Lithium |
| 2.8.2. | Lanthanum |
| 3. | PROGRESS WITH NEW GENERATION LITHIUM TRACTION BATTERIES |
| 3.1. | Introduction |
| 3.1. | Future improvement in power and energy density |
| 3.1. | Typical lithium iron phosphate traction battery |
| 3.2. | Subaru lithium ion manganese battery |
| 3.2. | Lithium manganese |
| 3.3. | Lithium iron phosphate |
| 3.3. | Mitsubishi lithium ion batteries for cars |
| 3.3.1. | Recharging breakthrough |
| 3.4. | Lithium air and lithium metal |
| 3.4. | In wheel system of Mitsubishi |
| 3.5. | Improved lithium phosphate cathode material in a Petri dish |
| 3.5. | Lithium sulfur |
| 3.5.1. | Other challenges |
| 3.6. | Lithium air batteries |
| 3.7. | Li-S Cell Configuration |
| 3.8. | Ragone plots for different rechargeable systems |
| 3.9. | Active Materials Transformation Diagram |
| 3.10. | Prototype lithium sulfur battery by Sion Power |
| 4. | SAFETY OPTIONS |
| 4.1. | Preventing explosion or fire |
| 4.1. | A typical gasoline fire |
| 4.2. | Laptop fires caused by lithium cobalt batteries |
| 4.2. | Preventing radiation |
| 4.3. | Electric shock |
| 4.3. | Gasoline powered car after an explosion |
| 4.4. | Poisonous gas |
| 5. | PROFILES OF 50 DEVELOPERS AND PRODUCERS |
| 5.1. | A123Systems USA with GE USA and Chrysler |
| 5.1. | Geographical distribution of 50 profiled on-road car traction battery and technology suppliers and aspiring suppliers excluding companies that are primarily car manufacturers |
| 5.1. | GS Yuasa Corporation consolidated financial highlights (in billions of yen unless specified) |
| 5.1.1. | GE has its own battery plant |
| 5.2. | Advanced Battery Technologies (ABAT) China |
| 5.2. | BYD financials |
| 5.2. | Chevrolet Volt lithium ion battery |
| 5.3. | Chrysler electric minivan |
| 5.3. | Altair Nanotechnologies (Altairnano) USA |
| 5.4. | Automotive Energy Supply Japan, NEC, Nissan |
| 5.4. | Altairnano view of some of the primary performance advantages of its lithium traction batteries |
| 5.5. | Pininfarina Bolloré B0 electric car powered by Bolloré lithium polymer batteries |
| 5.5. | Axeon UK |
| 5.6. | BASF Germany and Sion Power USA |
| 5.6. | LEV electric car by Qingyuan Motors |
| 5.6.1. | BASF licenses Argonne Lab's cathode material |
| 5.7. | Blue Energy, Lithium Energy Japan - GS Yuasa Japan with Honda, Mitsubishi |
| 5.7. | Continental lithium ion traction battery |
| 5.8. | Safety testing of Continental lithium ion traction batteries. |
| 5.8. | Bolloré France and Pininfarina |
| 5.9. | BYD China with Volkswagen etc |
| 5.9. | East Penn lead acid battery for golf cars |
| 5.9.1. | Volkswagen |
| 5.9.2. | Car superlatives |
| 5.9.3. | Plans for the USA |
| 5.10. | China BAK in China |
| 5.10. | Hummer H3 ReEV Lithium Ion SuperPolymer battery pack made by Electrovaya. |
| 5.11. | Enerdel traction battery |
| 5.11. | Coda Battery Systems, Yardney USA, Tianjin Lishen China |
| 5.12. | Continental Germany and ENAX Japan |
| 5.12. | Furukawa Cycle-service storage battery for Golf Cars |
| 5.13. | Smith electric vehicle |
| 5.13. | East Penn Manufacturing Corporation |
| 5.14. | Electrovaya Canada |
| 5.14. | LiFeBatt manufacture |
| 5.15. | Figure Magna Steyr traction battery pack capability |
| 5.15. | EnerDel USA and Nissan |
| 5.15.1. | US DOE grant |
| 5.15.2. | Impressive production facility |
| 5.15.3. | Fireproof lithium |
| 5.15.4. | Link with Nissan |
| 5.16. | Enerize USA and Fife Batteries UK |
| 5.16. | Magna Steyr energy battery for pure electric and plug in hybrid cars |
| 5.17. | Magna Steyr power battery for hybrid cars |
| 5.17. | Envia Systems USA |
| 5.18. | Evonik Industries Germany and Daimler |
| 5.18. | Toshiba e-bike battery |
| 5.19. | Furukawa Battery Japan |
| 5.20. | Hitachi Japan |
| 5.21. | IBM and National laboratories USA |
| 5.22. | Inci Holding Turkey |
| 5.23. | KD Advanced Battery Group Dow USA Kokam Korea |
| 5.24. | LG Chem Korea with Compact Power, GM etc |
| 5.24.1. | US DOE grant |
| 5.25. | LiFeBATT Taiwan |
| 5.26. | Lithium Technology Corporation/GAIA USA |
| 5.27. | MAGNA STEYR AG & Co KG |
| 5.28. | Mitsubishi Japan with Sumitomo Japan |
| 5.29. | Next Alternative Germany, Micro Bubble Technology Korea |
| 5.30. | Panasonic EV Energy, Sanyo Japan with Toyota, Volkswagen |
| 5.30.1. | 112 billion dollar merger |
| 5.30.2. | Panasonic EV Energy |
| 5.30.3. | Toyota demand |
| 5.30.4. | NiMH leadership, potential lithium leadership |
| 5.31. | PolyPlus Battery USA |
| 5.32. | PowerGenix USA |
| 5.33. | ReVolt Technologies Ltd Switzerland |
| 5.34. | Saft France, Johnson Controls USA, with Ford, BMW, Daimler |
| 5.34.1. | Saft |
| 5.34.2. | Johnson Controls |
| 5.34.3. | Joint venture |
| 5.35. | Sakti3 USA and General Motors |
| 5.36. | SB LiMotive Co. Ltd - Samsung Korea with Bosch Germany |
| 5.37. | Sony Japan |
| 5.38. | Superlattice Power USA |
| 5.39. | Toshiba Japan |
| 5.40. | Valence Technologies USA |
| 6. | MARKET FORECASTS FOR HYBRID AND PURE ELECTRIC CARS 2009-2019 |
| 6.1. | Car production |
| 6.1. | Global bicycle and car production millions |
| 6.1. | Crude oil prices 2003-2008 $/barrel |
| 6.2. | Global oil reserves, production and life |
| 6.2. | US oil production and imports |
| 6.2. | Cars and crude oil |
| 6.2.1. | Technical progress |
| 6.3. | Hybrid cars |
| 6.3. | Global sales of EV cars, hybrids, pure EVs and total in numbers 2009-2019 |
| 6.3. | Global sales of EV cars, including hybrids, pure EVs (including golf cars), total in thousands of units and ones that can be plugged in 2009-2019 |
| 6.3.1. | History of hybrid car sales |
| 6.4. | Forecasts 2009-2019 |
| 6.4. | Global sales of EV cars, hybrids, pure EVs and total in value ex-factory $ billion 2009-2019 |
| 6.4. | Global sales of EV cars, hybrids, pure EVs and total in value ex-factory $ billion 2009-2019 |
| 6.5. | Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units |
| 6.5. | Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units |
| 6.5. | Pure EVs |
| 6.5.1. | Total market |
| 6.5.2. | Will sales of pure electric cars overtake hybrids? |
| 6.5.3. | Market excluding golf cars |
| 6.5.4. | Golf cars |
| 6.5.5. | Fuel cell EVs |
| 6.6. | Prius US sales in units 2000-2008 |
| 6.6. | US hybrid sales by month showing sharp drop in 2008 and early 2009 |
| 6.7. | Estimates for historical global hybrid car sales in units by territory with % of whole |
| 6.7. | Estimates for historical global hybrid car sales in units by territory with % of whole. |
| 6.8. | Prius US sales in number and percent of US hybrid market |
| 6.8. | Prius US sales in number and percent of US hybrid market |
| 6.9. | Hybrid vehicle sales by manufacturer 2000-2006 |
| 6.9. | IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2009-2019 in units and %. |
| 6.10. | Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally, market share and market drivers |
| 6.10. | Reported hybrid vehicle sales in the USA as a percentage of total new light vehicle sales in March 2009 |
| 6.11. | Global hybrid vehicle market by country % 2007 |
| 6.11. | IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales 2009-2019 in units , ex works price and total value. |
| 6.12. | IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales 2009-2025 |
| 6.12. | Hybrid vehicle purchases by state in the USA in units 2007 |
| 6.13. | US hybrid vehicle sales by manufacturer % 2007 |
| 6.13. | Approximate number of hybrid models actual and planned by year 2000 to 2013 |
| 6.14. | Global pure EV car sales 2009-2019 in thousands of units |
| 6.14. | Hybrid vehicle sales by model |
| 6.15. | 2006 forecast of total car sales by region 2006/2011 and 2016 in millions of units |
| 6.15. | Global pure electric car sales 2009-2019 excluding golf cars and cumulative number of new models |
| 6.16. | Global pure EV golf car sales 2009-2019 |
| 6.16. | IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2009-2019 in units and %. |
| 6.17. | Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally and market drivers |
| 6.17. | Fuel cell EVs compared with battery pure EVs and ICE hybrids |
| 6.18. | IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales |
| 6.19. | Total sales and hybrids |
| 6.20. | Global pure electric car sales 2009-2019 excluding golf cars and cumulative number of new models since 2000 |
| 6.21. | Global pure EV golf car sales 2009-2019 |
| 7. | MARKET FORECASTS FOR TRACTION BATTERIES FOR CARS |
| 7.1. | Overview car traction battery market 2010-2020 |
| 7.1. | Market forecasts for traction batteries for new cars in units 2010-2020 |
| 7.1. | Market forecasts for traction batteries for new cars in units, ex factory price and value 2010-2020 and dominant technology |
| 7.2. | Replacement market for car traction batteries in value $ million 2010-2020 |
| 7.2. | Market forecasts for traction batteries for new cars ex factory price 2010-2020 |
| 7.2. | Replacement car traction battery market 2010-2020 |
| 7.3. | Total car traction battery market 2010-2020 |
| 7.3. | Market forecasts for traction batteries for new cars value 2010-2020 |
| 7.3. | IDTechEx projection for total car traction battery sales in $ billion 2009-2020 |
| 7.4. | Improvement in cost and performance of hybrid and pure electric vehicle lithium traction battery packs 2009-2020 |
| 7.4. | Replacement market for car traction batteries in value $ million 2010-2020 |
| 7.4. | Historical background statistics |
| 7.5. | NEV market |
| 7.5. | IDTechEx projection for total car traction battery sales in $ billion 2010-2020 |
| 7.6. | HEV battery sales by type 2000-2006 |
| 7.6. | Technology trends |
| 7.6.1. | Nickel metal hydride vs lithium |
| 7.6.2. | Nanobattery trends |
| 7.7. | Car traction battery performance 2009-2020 |
| 7.7. | Rechargeable battery sales by type 1972-2010 |
| 7.8. | Nanobattery trends including large format for hybrid vehicles |
| APPENDIX 1: GLOSSARY | |
| APPENDIX 2: INTRODUCTION TO BATTERIES | |
| APPENDIX 3: INTRODUCTION TO SUPERCAPACITORS | |
| APPENDIX 4: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY | |
| TABLES | |
| FIGURES |
The market for car traction batteries will be over $37 billion in 2020
报告统计信息
| Pages | 279 |
|---|---|
| Tables | 38 |
| Figures | 100 |
| 预测 | 2020 |
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