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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS | |
1. | INTRODUCTION |
1.1. | Definitions |
1.1. | The RFID value chain |
1.1. | Largest suppliers to date |
1.1.1. | RFID |
1.1.2. | Chipless |
1.1.3. | Active |
1.2. | Where RFID tags are placed – categories used |
1.2. | RFID tagged vehicles being monitored with interrogators on an overhead gantry at Los Angeles International Airport |
1.2. | Tags have different shapes |
1.3. | The RFID value chain |
1.3. | An AstraZeneca syringe with chipless RFID tag |
1.3. | Cumulative global sales of RFID tags by applicational category by the end of 2005 in millions |
1.4. | Cumulative global sales of RFID tags chip vs chipless to end of 2005 in millions |
1.4. | Technologies appropriate to the different levels of tag cost and volume. |
1.4. | Where tags are placed |
1.5. | The show so far – 1945-2006 |
1.5. | Deliveries of chipless tags to date by company |
1.5.1. | Cumulative sales by applicational category |
1.5.2. | Cumulative sales chip vs chipless |
1.5.3. | Cumulative sales active vs passive |
1.5.4. | Dominant suppliers |
1.6. | The cumulative global sales of RFID tags active vs passive in millions |
1.6. | Progress in 2005 |
1.7. | Ultimate potential |
1.7. | The dominant RFID tag and chip suppliers to start of 2006 |
1.7.1. | Potential for different applications |
1.7.2. | Tag price sensitivity at highest volumes |
1.8. | Value of RFID tag market in 2005 |
1.8. | Electronic Product Code (EPC) |
1.9. | Legal push |
1.9. | Value of Category “Other” RFID applications in 2005 |
1.10. | Value Chain 2005 |
1.10. | Demand pull |
1.11. | Constraints on market growth |
1.11. | Ultimate potential annual global sales by 2020 of some of the most promising tagged things that have potential for up to one billion tags used yearly. |
1.11.1. | EPC hiccups |
1.12. | Ultimate potential annual global sales by 2020 for some of the most promising tagged things with potential of over one billion tags yearly. |
1.12. | Statement of independence |
1.13. | Examples of laws and mandates encouraging RFID |
1.14. | Expectations and actions for EPC RFID in 2003 and outcome in 2004 |
1.15. | The main impediments to highest volume RFID |
2. | MARKET FOR EPC RFID |
2.1. | Procter & Gamble forecast for EPC CPG tagging at pallet, case and item level 2003 to 2010 |
2.1. | Reasons why an organization may want to use EPC |
2.1. | EPCglobal |
2.2. | Forecasting EPC adoption |
2.2. | Reasons why an organization may wish not to use EPC |
2.3. | When industries may adopt EPC RFID in at least hundreds of millions yearly. Estimates by IDTechEx |
2.3. | Choice of tagging package or product |
2.4. | Forecast for EPC CPG 2006-2010 |
3. | MARKETS BY COUNTRY |
3.1. | Top ten countries by number of case studies on the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase Q1 2006 |
3.1. | Number of RFID projects by country |
3.1. | Number of tags in billions by territory 2006, 2011, 2016 |
3.2. | Percentage share of numbers of tags by territory 2006, 2011, 2016 |
3.2. | Ongoing importance of the US market |
3.3. | Increasing importance of the East Asian market |
3.3. | Value, in billions of dollars, of systems/ services/ tags by territory 2006, 2011, 2016 |
3.4. | Percentage share of value of systems/ services/ tags by territory 2006, 2011, 2016 |
3.4. | Projected sales of RFID tags by territory |
4. | MARKETS FOR PASSIVE RFID |
4.1. | Passive RFID applications in packaging and containers by range |
4.1. | Passive vs active |
4.1. | Global market for active vs passive RFID tags by number billions |
4.2. | Global market for active vs passive RFID tags by tag price in cents |
4.2. | Sub categories of passive tag |
4.3. | Project cost, size and payback |
4.3. | Global market for active vs passive RFID tags in billions of dollars |
4.4. | Unit price of expensive vs low cost tags for active RFID 2006 |
4.4. | Passive market by applicational sector |
4.5. | The main things that are passive tagged |
4.5. | Examples of overall spend vs tag spend for some large RFID projects so far |
4.6. | Historical sales of chipless RFID tags |
4.6. | Passive RFID market by range |
4.7. | New passive technologies create new markets |
4.7. | Chipless percentage share of the overall RFID market by numbers 2005 to 2015. Projection by IDTechEx |
4.7.1. | Forecast for chip vs chipless tags |
4.7.2. | Price advantage the main driver of market gain |
5. | MARKETS FOR ACTIVE RFID |
5.1. | Passive RFID compared with the various types of active RFID |
5.1. | Sub categories of active tag |
5.1. | Comparison of some of the typical features of passive vs active RFID |
5.2. | Main things tagged with active RFID tags in terms of number of projects in the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase or numbers used |
5.2. | Project cost, size and payback |
5.2. | Printed batteries from Infinite Power Solutions and the concept by the Smart Active Labels Consortium of using RFID smart labels with similar batteries to boost range in warehouse environments. |
5.3. | RFID protecting keys against theft or misuse. |
5.3. | Active market by applicational sector |
5.3. | Active RFID in the prison and parole service |
5.3.1. | Compare VDC |
5.4. | The main things that are active tagged |
5.4. | Global potential annually for active RFID systems plus tags in the prison and parole service |
5.4. | Wristwatch transmitters worn by inmates |
5.5. | Value chain for active RFID |
5.5. | Forecasts for the number, unit price and value of the global market for vehicle clickers (remote locking), Smart Active Label (SAL) RFID and other types of active RFID tag from 2006-2016 in millions of units and millions of dollars. |
5.5. | Active RFID market by range |
5.6. | Active RFID market by battery type |
5.6. | Statistics for road tolling/ parking RFID tags worldwide in 2005 |
5.7. | Forecast for the value of global sales of RFID systems excluding tags, for vehicle clickers, SALs and other applications 2006-2016 in millions of dollars |
5.7. | New active technologies create new markets |
5.7.1. | Hand-held homing devices |
5.7.2. | New markets – Smart Active Labels |
5.7.3. | The prison / correctional facility and parole service opportunity |
5.8. | Forecasts for tags |
5.8. | Forecast for the value of global sales of RFID systems excluding tags, for vehicle clickers, SALs and other applications 2006-2016 in millions of dollars |
5.9. | Forecasts for systems |
5.9.2. | Cisco Systems |
6. | MARKET FOR RFID INTERROGATORS |
6.1. | RFID enabled cellphones worldwide – 2005, 2010, 2015 |
6.2. | Market for RFID interrogators by application, US dollars billions |
6.3. | Market for RFID interrogators by application, number millions |
6.4. | Market for RFID interrogators by application, reader price US dollars |
7. | MARKET VALUE BY POSITION IN VALUE CHAIN: INTERROGATORS, SOFTWARE, SERVICES ETC |
7.1. | A traditional bullet-like LF tag, left, as used in the shoes of marathon runners for timing and in animals. This is compared with, centre, a label at HF, and right one at UHF, both being the size of a credit card but thinner. |
7.1. | The split of the market by position in the value chain by percentage share |
7.1. | Market split by position |
7.2. | Markets for labels, cards and tickets |
7.2. | The split of the market by position in the value chain by value |
7.2. | The changing mix of contactless applications from Dreifus Associates |
7.3. | Number millions of RFID smart cards and payment key fobs sold globally 2006-2016 |
7.3. | Smart card projections |
7.4. | Forecasts for RFID labels and label-like tags |
7.4. | Total worldwide smart card market (contact and contactless), 2001-2008 |
7.5. | Percentage of RFID tags that are labels, by numbers made in 1990, 2000, 2006, 2016 |
7.6. | Percentage of RFID tags that are labels, by value made in 1990, 2000, 2006, 2016 |
7.7. | The market for RFID labels and label-like tags 2006 and 2016 |
7.8. | Projected tag assembly costs according to The Auto ID Center |
8. | MARKETS BY LOCATION OF TAG – ITEM, PALLET / CASE, ETC |
8.1. | Malaysian project for Ubiquitous Sensor Networks etc |
8.1. | Item level tagging numbers billion by type 2006 and 2016: CPG, drug, postal, book and other. |
8.1. | Item, pallet / case tagging vs smart cards |
8.2. | Forecasts 2006-2016 |
8.2. | Volume sales of tags by application 2006-2016 |
8.2. | What is USN in Korea? |
8.3. | RFID/ USN development in Korea 2004-2007 as presented at the IDTechEx conference Smart Labels Asia in Tokyo November 2004 |
8.3. | Average tag price in US dollar cents per application 2006-2016 |
8.3. | RFID beyond item, case and pallet tagging |
8.3.1. | Forecasts 2006-2016 |
8.3.2. | Rationale behind each forecast |
8.3.3. | Ubiquitous Sensor Networks and other possibilities – Malaysia and Korea timelines to 2010 |
8.3.4. | The smart ticket/ banknote/ security document opportunity |
8.3.5. | RFID specifically for banknotes in Japan and Malaysia |
8.3.6. | Global banknote statistics |
8.3.7. | Sharply increased counterfeiting |
8.3.8. | Penetration for banknotes/ tickets/ documents |
8.4. | Total value of tags in billions of US dollars per application 2006-2016 |
8.4. | Korean program towards ubiquitous sensor enabled RFID 2004 to 2010 as presented at the IDTechEx conference Smart Labels Asia in Tokyo November 2004 |
8.5. | The Hitachi Mu chip for banknote and other applications. |
8.5. | Rationale behind item and pallet / case forecasts |
8.6. | Other – volume of sales |
8.6. | The total value of money in circulation as dollars and Euros 2002-2004 |
8.7. | Total value of fake Euro notes intercepted by the European Central Bank and US authorities by denomination 2003 and 2004. |
8.7. | Other – average tag price |
8.8. | Other – gross unit sales value |
8.9. | Some possibly substantial new locations for RFID tags |
8.10. | Global forecast for the ticket, banknote and secure document sector 2006-2016 in millions |
8.11. | Rationale behind ticket, banknote, passport forecast |
8.12. | Global banknote population and geographical spread 2006 |
8.13. | Global population and replacement rate for high value notes in 2016. |
8.14. | The RFID percentage of all high value banknotes, tickets and financial/ security documents made in 2016 |
9. | MARKET BY APPLICATIONAL SECTOR |
9.1. | Tagging of blood bags. |
9.1. | IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase early 2006 –number of cases by applicational sector |
9.1. | Many different segmentations |
9.2. | Prevalence of RFID projects for each applicational sector |
9.2. | Future trends for the applicational sectors with the most projects. |
9.2. | US Navy program for the ship of the future based on RFID and allied technologies |
9.3. | RFID Value Chain 2005 |
9.3. | Benefits most commonly sought and payback most commonly claimed by sector. |
9.3. | Future trend of projects for each applicational sector |
9.4. | Military and federal |
9.4. | How most mergers and acquisitions take companies towards total system supply and system integration/ facilities management to chase the big orders. |
9.5. | High volume item level RFID tagging |
9.5. | Secure access |
9.6. | Current and future forms of payback by applicational sector |
9.6. | The market for add-on printed RFID |
9.7. | Trends in the RFID value chain 2006 to 2016 and beyond |
10. | MARKETS BY FREQUENCY |
10.1. | A cow being automatically fed an optimal diet and medication thanks to its LF tag. |
10.1. | Spread of tag sales |
10.1. | The approximate spread of tag sales by frequency to the start of 2006 |
10.2. | The spread of tag sales % by frequency to the start of 2006 and forecast for 2006, 2011, 2016 |
10.2. | Passive frequencies |
10.2. | A tagged test tube |
10.3. | Active only in 2006 |
10.3. | Active frequencies |
10.3. | Future favourite frequencies by format and application |
10.4. | Active only in 2016 |
11. | LARGEST ORDERS, PRODUCTS, PLAYERS AND OVERSUPPLY/ UNDERSUPPLY: MILESTONES IN FUTURE |
11.1. | Competing value chains for tags |
11.1. | Examples of dominant companies in the chip to label value chain in 2006 |
11.1. | Largest orders, best selling products, dominant suppliers in future |
11.1.1. | Largest suppliers of chips |
11.1.2. | Largest suppliers of tags, inlets, straps and detailed value chain for high volume |
11.1.3. | Largest suppliers of software and services |
11.2. | The evolution of RFID by application, as seen by ASK. |
11.2. | Sectors potentially oversupplied or undersupplied |
11.2. | Examples of companies dominating in the chip to label value chain in 2010 |
11.2.1. | Production capacity for tags |
11.2.2. | Over and undersupply along the value chain 2006-2016 |
11.3. | Expected trend of technologies as a result of industry – government collaboration in Japan, as presented at the IDTechEx conference Smart Labels Asia in Tokyo November 2004 |
11.3. | The trend for RFID software and services 2005/ 2016 |
11.3. | Milestones and timelines 2006-2020 |
11.3.1. | Timeline by application 2000-2008 |
11.3.2. | Timeline for development in Japan 2004-2010 and onwards |
11.3.3. | Postal timeline |
11.3.4. | Timeline for commencement of pallet case and item level tagging |
11.3.5. | Healthcare item tagging timeline 2004-2008 |
11.3.6. | Milestones 2006-2016 |
11.3.7. | Report on RFID personnel requirements 2006-2016 |
11.4. | DHL timeline for item level tagging of postal packages, first quarter 2004 |
11.4. | To learn more |
11.4. | Some of the companies offering and preparing to offer RFID tags in very high volumes and their current status. |
11.5. | Global production capacity for RFID tags suitable for the highest volume demand 2005 - 2006 |
11.5. | The expected timeline for item level tagging in healthcare according to MeadWestvaco and Philips |
11.6. | Over and undersupply that existed in the RFID value chain in 2004/5 |
11.7. | Parts of the RFID value chain that may be over or undersupplied 2006-2016. |
11.8. | MIT Auto ID Center estimate in 2002 of commencement dates for pallet, case and item level tagging by sector 2003-2007 |
11.9. | Milestones 2006-2020 |
APPENDIX 1: EPCGLOBAL AND THE INTERNET OF THINGS | |
APPENDIX 2: GLOSSARY | |
TABLES | |
FIGURES |