电动汽车 2023-2043: IDTechEx

e-cars create huge opportunities for the EV supply chain, with 76% of e-transport revenues by 2043

电动汽车 2023-2043

动力系统(BEV、PHEV、FCEV);区域(美国、中国、挪威、英国、法国、德国、荷兰、丹麦、全球其他地区);自动驾驶(L2、L3、L4);电池(NMC、NCA、LFP、硅、固态);发动机(PM、WRSM、ACIM、轴向通量、轮内);动力电子装置(SiC、Si IGBT)


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Electric Cars: Global Markets
 
The automotive sector is the largest transport sector with some 80-90 million cars sold globally each year. A global fleet of approximately 1.1 billion cars in-use make the greatest contributions to road emissions, leading the sector to become a natural early focal point for green policymakers.
 
While electric cars date back one hundred years, electric car markets as we know them today have been growing since circa 2011. Due to their scale, car markets create the largest opportunities for players in the electric vehicle supply chain, from advanced materials through to battery packs, power electronics and electric motors. Moreover, they drive the rapid pace of innovation that enables electrification in other transport sectors, whether in technology, regulation, or business models. The aim of this report is to provide a regional deep dive into the latest technology and market trends for electric cars.
 
Other e-transport sectors tracked by IDTechEx include vans, trucks, buses, two-wheelers, construction, marine and aircraft. Source: IDTechEx
Global electric car sales surged in 2021 to over 6.4 million and IDTechEx predicts sales will reach over 9 million in 2022. However, key challenges persist, such as the chip shortage and manufacturing disruption from the pandemic. On the horizon, fundamental shortages of critical raw materials loom, particularly lithium carbonate. While these challenges may impact timescales and the pace of the transition, major automotive markets are headed in one direction: decarbonisation through electric vehicles.
 
The report provides granular regional (US, China, Norway, UK, France, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, RoW), and technology forecasts. Technology coverage includes battery-electric (BEV), hybrid (PHEV & HEV) and fuel cell (FCEV) cars; autonomous vehicles (L2, L3, L4); Li-ion batteries (NMC, NCA, LFP, silicon, solid-state); electric motors (PM, WRSM, ACIM, Axial-flux, In-wheel); power electronics (SiC, Si IGBT); high voltage cabling and charging infrastructure.
 
As range becomes a key battle ground to differentiate electric vehicles amid battery shortages, new powertrain advancements are coming to the forefront. The report details the rise of 800V platforms, silicon carbide (SiC) inverters, more efficient motor systems and DC fast charging capability.
 
Fuel Cells
 
The report reveals the progress and opportunities for fuel cells in car markets, providing 20-year global forecasts. The deployment of fuel cells within vehicles is not a new concept. Major OEMs including Toyota, Ford, Honda, GM, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Daimler, and BMW have invested large sums over the past 30 years in advancing the technology. For passenger cars, a huge amount of effort and expense has gone into developing fuel cells, but in 2021 only two major OEMs, Toyota and Hyundai, have FCEV cars in production and fewer than 20,000 FCEV were sold in 2021.
 
Fuel cell vehicle deployments face considerable challenges, including decreasing the cost of fuel cell system components and rolling out sufficient hydrogen refuelling infrastructure. Also essential will be the availability of cheap 'green' hydrogen, produced by the electrolysis of water using renewable electricity, which analysis in the new IDTechEx report highlights will be vital to FCEVs delivering the environmental credentials on which they are being sold.
 
Autonomy
 
'Autonomous vehicle' (AV) is an umbrella term for the six levels as defined by the SAE. Today, most new cars are arriving with the option of level 2 functionality, and the industry is technically ready for level 3 once regulatory hurdles clear.
 
In recent years, vast improvements to autonomous vehicle technologies such as radar, lidar, HD cameras and software have propelled robotaxis to the cusp of market-readiness. Autonomous trials from Waymo, Cruise, and others are now evolving into autonomous services, with legislative barriers clearing. IDTechEx forecasts reveal how these services will come to dominate within 20 years.
 
Some regions are even pushing for level 4 technology, but most activity here is still with autonomous mobility start-ups and in trial stages. Overall, the report finds autonomous vehicles will become a massively disruptive technology which will grow rapidly at a rate of up to 47% to transform the auto market over the next two decades.
 
Advanced Li-ion Battery Cells & Packs
 
Li-ion batteries based on graphite anodes and layered oxide cathodes (NMC, NCA) have come to dominate large parts of electric vehicle markets. However, as they start to reach their performance limits and as environmental and supply risks are highlighted, improvements and alternatives to Li-ion batteries become increasingly important. This report summarises trends and developments in advanced battery technologies, including to Li-ion cell designs, silicon anodes and solid-state batteries.
 
Advanced Li-ion refers to silicon and Li-metal anodes, solid-electrolytes, high-Ni cathodes as well as various cell design factors. Given the importance of the electric vehicle market, specifically battery electric cars, on determining battery demand, Li-ion is forecast to maintain its dominant position. Cathode and anode choices, cell design improvements and rate of energy density improvement are key questions addressed in this report.
 
Also discussed are pack level trends. Several different materials are required to assemble a battery pack, including TIMs, adhesives, gaskets, impregnation, potting, fillers and more. A general trend towards larger cell form factors and non-modular cell-to-pack battery designs is discussed, a trend expected to reduce the number of connections, busbars, and cables between cells and modules.
 
Power Electronics
 
In automotive power electronics (inverters, onboard chargers, DC-DC converters), key advancements are being made to improve powertrain efficiency, allowing for either battery pack capacity reduction or improved range. One of the key avenues to achieving greater efficiencies is the transition to silicon carbide MOSFETs and high voltage vehicle platforms at or above 800V. A trend which has been increasing in pace as Renault, BYD, GM and Hyundai have announced 800V vehicle platforms which will adopt silicon carbide MOSFETs in their power electronics through 2025.
 
The transition is presenting fresh challenges for power module package materials, as higher switching frequencies, increased power densities and increased operational temperatures are demanded all whilst maintaining a 15-year service life. The report shows technology outlooks for 800V platform voltages and adoption of SiC inverters. It further discusses how, as the power density of semiconductor chips has been increasing exponentially over the past decade, new double-sided cooling designs, copper wirebonds and lead frames have emerged as the enabler.
 
Electric Motors
 
Electric motor markets are still evolving today with new designs, improving power and torque density, and more considerations around the materials used. These aren't just incremental improvements either with developments such as axial flux motors and various OEMs eliminating rare-earths altogether.
 
There are several key performance metrics for electric motors. Power and torque density enables improved driving dynamics in a smaller and lighter package, with weight and space being at a premium in EVs. Another critical area is drive cycle efficiency. Improving efficiency means that less of the precious energy stored in the battery is wasted when accelerating the vehicle, leading to improved range from the same battery capacity. Due to the many different considerations in motor design, the EV market has adopted several different solutions including permanent magnet, induction, and wound-rotor motors.
 
The report reveals trends around motor technology and topology, power and torque density, and materials utilisation. This report addresses these trends within the markets for battery-electric cars with OEM use-cases and a technology outlook by motor type - permanent magnet (PM), induction, wound-rotor, in-wheel PM, axial-flux PM.
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Table of Contents
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Report Introduction
1.2.Electric Vehicle Definitions
1.3.Electric Car Sales 2015-2043: BEV, PHEV, FCEV, HEV, ICE
1.4.Hybrid Car Sales Surges
1.5.Electric Car Sales 2015-2043: US, China, Norway, UK, France, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, RoW
1.6.Regional Trends: China
1.7.Regional Trends: US
1.8.Regional Trends: EU + UK + EFTA
1.9.Electric Car Sales by Region (Data Table)
1.10.Automaker & Government EV Targets
1.11.Cars: Total Cost of Ownership
1.12.Shortages Across the Supply Chain
1.13.Average Battery Capacity Forecast: China, Europe, US, RoW
1.14.Global Battery Demand by Region 2015-2043 (GWh)
1.15.Global Revenues 2015-2043: BEV, PHEV, FCEV ($ billion)
1.16.Autonomous Cars 2015-2043: L2, L3, Private L4, Shared L4
1.17.Access to 18 IDTechEx Portal Company Profiles
2.GLOBAL TRENDS AND MARKET DRIVERS
2.1.Regional Electric Car Markets in 2021
2.2.Automaker Market Rankings
2.3.Powertrain Tailpipe Emissions Comparison
2.4.Grid Emissions
2.5.COP26 Transport Targets
2.6.Hybrid Car Sales Surges
2.7.Hybrid Car (HEV) Manufacturer Market Share
2.8.Shortages Across the Supply Chain
2.9.Raw Material Price Increases
2.10.Lithium Shortage
2.11.Chip Shortages - Background
2.12.Chip Shortages - Electric Vehicles
2.13.Chip Shortages - Automaker Reactions
3.CHINA: SALES, POLICY & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
3.1.Chapter summary
3.2.New energy vehicles
3.3.What's Driving Electrification in China?
3.4.Car Sales and Two-wheeler Sales in China
3.5.Electric vehicle data sources in China
3.6.Monthly NEV sales 2016-2020
3.7.Monthly NEV Sales 2020-2022
3.8.'Zero-covid' Policy
3.9.The Dual-credit System
3.10.Automakers Ranked by the Credit System
3.11.Credit Price Changes
3.12.OEM Market Shares in China 2015-2021
3.13.China Purchase Subsidy 2020-2022
3.14.NEV Sales by Vehicle Class
3.15.Battery Chemistry Trends: China
3.16.Batterymaker Market Shares in China
3.17.Electric Car Forecast by Powertrain: China
3.18.Charging Infrastructure: China Summary
3.19.Charging Infrastructure Province and Municipalities in China
3.20.Private & Public Charging Uptake Ratio: China
3.21.Battery Swapping Growth in China
3.22.Battery Swap Stations in Chinese Cities
4.US: SALES, POLICY & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
4.1.Chapter Summary
4.2.US Electric Vehicle Sales
4.3.US Electric Vehicle OEM Market Shares
4.4.2022 Monthly Sales
4.5.US PHEV arguments
4.6.US Electric Vehicle Target
4.7.Final US Emissions Standards
4.8.US: Plug-in Electric Vehicle Tax Credit
4.9.Electric Vehicle Registrations by State
4.10.Electric Pickups - The Next Big Thing
4.11.General Motors' Future Mobility Plans
4.12.'Technology' Automakers & 'Sony-Honda Mobility'
4.13.Battery Chemistry Trends: US
4.14.Public Charging Stations in the US
4.15.Private & Public Charging Uptake Ratio: US
5.EUROPE: SALES, POLICY & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
5.1.Chapter Summary
5.2.Historic Electric Vehicle Sales
5.3.EU + UK + EFTA Sales H1 2022
5.4.Historic Electric Vehicle Sales By Model
5.5.Battery Chemistry Trends: Europe
5.6.EU ICE Ban by 2035
5.7.Europe Emissions Standards
5.8.Europe Plug-in Hybrid Outlook
5.9.The Status of Public Charging in Europe
5.10.Private & Public Charging Uptake Ratio: Europe
6.FUEL CELL VEHICLES
6.1.Fuel Cell Technology Introduction
6.1.1.PEMFC Working Principle
6.1.2.Fuel Cell Energy Density Advantage
6.1.3.PEMFC Assembly and Materials
6.1.4.Role of the Gas Diffusion Layer
6.1.5.Toyota Fuel Cell
6.2.Fuel Cells: Barriers to Adoption
6.2.1.Fuel Cell Energy Efficiency
6.2.2.'E-Fuels' Comparison
6.2.3.Hydrogen Production Methods
6.2.4.Hydrogen: Emissions & Cost Issues
6.2.5.Fuelling Costs Petrol vs Hydrogen
6.2.6.Energy Cost per Mile: FCEV, BEV, Internal-combustion
6.2.7.Hydrogen Infrastructure
6.2.8.Hydrogen Infrastructure Costs
6.3.Fuel Cell Markets, Forecasts & Players
6.3.1.Growth of Fuel Cell Passenger Cars
6.3.2.Fuel Cell Car Forecasts
6.3.3.OEMs on Developing FCEVs
6.3.4.Reality of the FCEV Range Advantage over BEV
6.3.5.Fuel Cell Car Models
6.3.6.FCEV Purchase Incentives
6.3.7.South Korean FCEV Subsidy
6.3.8.Toyota Mirai 2nd Generation
6.3.9.Toyota Mirai 2nd Gen. Significant Upgrades
6.3.10.Toyota Mirai 2nd Gen H2 Safety Measures
6.3.11.Toyota Mirai Sales 2014-2021
6.3.12.Hyundai NEXO SUV
6.3.13.Hyundai FCEV Improvements
6.3.14.Hyundai NEXO Hydrogen Tanks
6.3.15.Hyundai FCEV Goals
6.3.16.Hyundai NEXO Sales
6.3.17.BMW i Hydrogen NEXT FCEV
6.3.18.Chinese FCEV Cars
6.3.19.SAIC China's FCEV Car Pioneer
6.3.20.Announced Chinese FCEV Cars
6.4.Failed FCEV Projects
6.4.1.Honda FCEV Development Timeline
6.4.2.Honda Clarity Fuel Cell
6.4.3.Honda Discontinue FC-Clarity: Weak Demand
6.4.4.Mercedes End FCEV Car Development
6.4.5.VW Position on Fuel Cells
6.4.6.VW: H2 Inefficiency as a Fuel
6.4.7.Audi Abandons FCEV Development
6.4.8.Volvo & Powercell
7.AUTONOMY
7.1.The Automation Levels in Detail
7.2.The Components of Autonomy
7.3.Typical Sensor Suite for Autonomous Cars
7.4.Sensors and Their Purpose
7.5.Important Trends in the Sensor Holy Trinity
7.6.ADAS Chip Power Progression
7.7.Autonomy is Changing the Automotive Supply Chain
7.8.Sensor Suite Metadata
7.9.MaaS Sensor Analysis
7.10.MaaS Sensor Suite Analysis
7.11.Legislation Breakdown by Region
7.12.Sensor Requirements for Different Levels of Autonomy
7.13.Car Sales Will Peak in the Early 2030s
7.14.MaaS Adoption Forecast
7.15.MaaS Market Entry by Region
7.16.Car Sales Broken Down by SAE Level
7.17.Autonomous Vehicle Markets
8.TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
8.1.Batteries
8.1.1.Lithium Battery Chemistries
8.1.2.Types of Lithium Battery
8.1.3.Battery Technology Comparison
8.1.4.The Promise of Silicon
8.1.5.Silicon Anode Material Opportunities
8.1.6.Silicon Anode - Company Benchmarking
8.1.7.Status & Future of the Solid State Battery Business
8.1.8.Solid-state Electrolyte Technology Approach
8.1.9.Technology Evaluation
8.1.10.Technology Evaluation
8.1.11.Solid State Battery Collaborations/Investment by Automotive OEMs
8.1.12.Li-ion Technology Diversification
8.1.13.Cathode Demand For BEV Cars (Gwh)
8.1.14.Li-ion Timeline Commentary
8.1.15.Timeline and Outlook for Li-ion Cell Energy Densities
8.1.16.IDTechEx Li-ion Battery Timeline
8.1.17.Li-ion Batteries: From Cell to Pack
8.1.18.Automotive Format Choices
8.1.19.Battery Pack Materials
8.1.20.Shifts in Cell and Pack Design
8.1.21.Eliminating the Battery Module
8.1.22.Will the Module Be Eliminated?
9.ELECTRIC MOTORS
9.1.Electric Motors: Continued Developments
9.2.Summary of Traction Motor Types
9.3.Convergence on PM by Major Automakers
9.4.Magnet Price Increase Risk
9.5.Reducing Rare-Earths
9.6.Axial Flux Motors: Emerging Players
9.7.Axial Flux Motors Enter the EV Market
9.8.Benchmark of Commercial Axial Flux Motors
9.9.In-Wheel Motors: Benefits
9.10.Examples of Vehicles with In-Wheel Motors
9.11.Electric Motor Outlook by Technology
10.POWER ELECTRONICS & 800V PLATFORMS
10.1.1.Power Electronics in Electric Vehicles
10.1.2.Power Electronics Device Ranges
10.1.3.Benchmarking Silicon, Silicon Carbide & Gallium Nitride
10.1.4.Inverter Power Modules
10.1.5.Inverter Package Designs
10.1.6.Module Packaging Material Dimensions
10.1.7.SiC Die Area Reduction
10.1.8.Silicon Carbide Size Reductions to Inverter Package
10.1.9.Advanced Wire Bonding Techniques
10.1.10.Drivers for 800V Platforms
10.1.11.System Changes Moving to 800V
10.1.12.Emerging 800V Platforms & SiC Inverters
10.1.13.800V Platform Discussion & Outlook
10.2.Other Technology Developments
10.2.1.In-house Vehicle Software Platforms
10.2.2.Sono Motors: Solar Bodywork
10.2.3.Sono Motors: Achieving Low Cost
10.2.4.Aluminium High Voltage Cabling
10.2.5.Aluminium HV Cabling Disadvantages
10.2.6.Tesla Model 3 HV Cable
10.2.7.Al HV Cables Market Adoption
10.2.8.The Ultimate Concept EV: 1000km Range
11.CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE
11.1.Overview of Charging Levels
11.2.Historic Charging Installations
11.3.DC Fast Charging Levels
11.4.High Power Charging (HPC)
11.5.Harmonisation of Connector Standards
11.6.Smart Charging
11.7.Key Market Players
11.8.AC Charging Forecast 2015-2032
11.9.DC Fast Charging Forecast 2015-2032
12.FORECASTS
12.1.Long-term Forecasting of Technologies
12.2.Forecast Methodology
12.3.Forecast Methodology & FAQ
12.4.Forecast Assumptions
12.5.Electric Car Sales 2015-2043: BEV, PHEV, FCEV, HEV, ICE
12.6.Electric Car Sales 2015-2043: US, China, Norway, UK, France, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, RoW
12.7.Average Battery Capacity Forecast: China, Europe, US, RoW
12.8.Global Battery Demand by Region 2015-2043 (GWh)
12.9.Global Revenues 2015-2043: BEV, PHEV, FCEV ($ billion)
12.10.Autonomous Cars 2015-2043: L2, L3, Private L4, Shared L4
12.11.Electric Car Forecast by Powertrain: China
12.12.Private & Public Charging Uptake Ratio: China
12.13.Private & Public Charging Uptake Ratio: US
12.14.Private & Public Charging Uptake Ratio: Europe
12.15.Car Sales Will Peak in the Early 2030s
12.16.MaaS Adoption Forecast
12.17.Car Sales Broken Down by SAE Level
12.18.Cathode Demand For BEV Cars (Gwh)
12.19.Electric Motor Outlook by Technology
12.20.800V Platform Discussion & Outlook
12.21.Al HV Cables Market Adoption
12.22.AC Charging Forecast 2015-2032
12.23.DC Fast Charging Forecast 2015-2032
 

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报告统计信息

幻灯片 255
预测 2043
已发表 Aug 2022
ISBN 9781915514134
 

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