IDTechEx는 수전해질 시장이 2033년까지 1,200억 달러에 이를 것으로 예측

그린수소 생산: 전해조 시장 (2023- 2033년)

알칼리, PEM, 고체산화물; 기술, 기술 경제 분석, 기업, 응용분야, 예측

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IDTechEx는 수전해질 시장이 2033년까지 1,200억 달러 이상으로 성장할 것으로 예측한다. 그린 수소와 수소 경제에 대한 이전의 과대 광고 기간은 지나갔지만, 이제 공공 및 민간 모두의 상당한 자본이 그린 수소 생산을 위한 물 전기분해 시스템 개발에 투자되고 있다. 수소 수요는 정제 및 암모니아 생산을 포함한 기존 시장뿐만 아니라, 메탄올, 그린 철강 및 운송 응용분야와 같은 새로운 시장에서,전 세계적으로 증가할 것으로 예상된다. 이러한 수소 생산 및 사용의 증가는, 에너지 안보를 개선하려는 열망과 탈탄소화 노력이 주도하고 있다. 그러나 탈탄소화에서 역할을 하려면, 생성된 수소 자체가 저탄소 이어야 한다.
IDTechEx forecasts the water electrolyzer market to grow to over US$120B by 2033. While previous periods of hype for green hydrogen and the hydrogen economy have waned, significant capital, both public and private, is now being spent on developing water electrolysis systems for the production of green hydrogen. Hydrogen demand is expected to grow globally from both incumbent markets, including refining and ammonia production, as well as from new markets such as in methanol, green steel, and transport applications. This increase in hydrogen production and use is being driven by a growing desire to improve energy security and by decarbonization efforts. However, to play a role in decarbonization, the hydrogen produced must itself be low carbon.
What is green hydrogen?
Green hydrogen refers to the splitting of water into hydrogen and oxygen via electrolysis in an electrolyzer. If renewable electricity is used to power the electrolyzer then the hydrogen produced can be referred to as green hydrogen. Powered by renewable energy sources such as solar PV or offshore wind power, this green hydrogen will have lower carbon emissions associated with it than the hydrogen being produced today, most of which comes from steam methane reformation or coal gasification. A plethora of colours now exist to describe the various sub-routes to hydrogen production. For example, pink/purple hydrogen is used to describe electrolytic hydrogen using nuclear power and yellow hydrogen describes electrolytic hydrogen utilising mixed power grid sources, though it has also been used to refer to solar PV powered water electrolysis. Grey and black hydrogen refer to hydrogen produced via methane reformation or coal gasification while blue hydrogen describes this hydrogen if the resulting CO2 emissions are captured.
Green hydrogen markets
Green hydrogen offers a route to decarbonising hydrogen production, in turn helping to decarbonise various hard-to-abate sectors. Currently, the primary end-uses for hydrogen are in refining activities and ammonia production. These are forecast to remain the key uses for hydrogen in the medium-term. Furthermore, hydrogen can also play a role in helping to decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors such as steel manufacturing, methanol production or certain modes of transport such as heavy-duty vehicles, shipping, or aviation. Beyond decarbonization, hydrogen also offers a route to greater energy security by allowing local production of hydrogen as well as a reduction in the use, via their replacement, of natural gas and coal for industries including steel, methanol, construction and chemicals production. This is particularly topical given the uncertainty and volatility in natural gas prices and supply following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as well as growing demand and pressure to decarbonise the global economy. However, IDTechEx estimate that green hydrogen accounts for <1% of total hydrogen production globally in 2022, highlighting the level that is needed in the electrolyzer and green hydrogen market.
Electrolyzer technology
There are three main types of electrolyzer technology that can be used to produce green hydrogen: alkaline (AEL or AWE), proton-exchange-membrane or polymer-electrolyte-membrane (PEM), and solid-oxide electrolyzers (SOEL). Each technology comes with their own set of advantages and disadvantages. Alkaline electrolyzers have long been commercial and used for industrial applications. They are characterised by their low capital costs and long lifetimes. PEM electrolyzers are at an earlier stage of commercialization but are set to gain market share over the coming years. They are characterised by higher power densities, output hydrogen pressures and faster response times than alkaline systems. This generally makes them better suited to utilising renewable power. SOELs are the youngest electrolyzer technology. Operating at elevated temperatures above 700°C, they offer higher system efficiencies but are expensive, can struggle with dynamic operation, and improvements to system lifetime are likely to be necessary. Nevertheless, their higher efficiencies can play a role in decreasing the levelized cost of the hydrogen produced while they also hold promise for producing syngas through the combined electrolysis of H2O and CO2.
Key metrics for assessing the performance of an electrolyzer system include: efficiency, capital cost, response time and dynamic range, hydrogen purity and pressure, lifetime and footprint. Ultimately, one of the most important parameters is likely to be levelized cost of hydrogen. This report provides an analysis and comparison of the different electrolyzer systems available, covering working mechanisms, materials employed, and system performance, amongst other factors. An outlook and discussion on future electrolyzer technology adoption is also provided alongside improvements and innovations being made to electrolyzer technology.
Electrolyzer market
Manufacturing capacity is expected to increase significantly over the next 5 years as players looks to capture a share of this growing market. IDTechEx analysis shows that European companies are particularly active in their plans to expand and grow their electrolyzer manufacturing capacities and capabilities, though significant investment into electrolyzer manufacturing is also expected from Chinese and US companies while Indian and Australian players are also looking to enter the market. The electrolyzer market is currently dominated by alkaline and PEM electrolyzer manufacturers with comparatively few companies manufacturing or commercialising solid-oxide electrolyzers. However, the similarity between solid-oxide electrolyzers and solid-oxide fuel cells could provide an entry point for fuel cell manufacturers into the green hydrogen market. Certainly, growth in the electrolyzer market, across the three electrolyzer types, will be needed to meet ambitious national and regional targets for green and clean hydrogen production.
This report provides analysis and comparison of the electrolyzer technologies and designs being commercialised and developed. In addition, an overview of the market is provided, outlining key electrolyzer manufacturers and players, current manufacturing capacities, planned installations and regional green hydrogen production targets.
This report provides the following information:
Hydrogen market
  • Overview and analysis of hydrogen applications
  • Drivers and challenges for green hydrogen adoption
  • Hydrogen end-user forecast
Electrolyzer technology analysis
  • Analysis and discussion of electrolyzer technology, trends and innovation
  • State of the art of adopted material components and working parameters
  • Electrolyzer efficiency and H2 purity comparison
  • Outlook and discussion on electrolyzer technology adoption
Electrolyzer market analysis
  • Status and analysis of production and manufacturing targets and plans
  • Analysis of the electrolyzer market and key players
  • Green hydrogen cost analysis
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Table of Contents
1.1.History of the hydrogen economy
1.2.Recent development in the hydrogen market
1.3.Important competing factors for the green H2 market
1.4.Electrolyzer Systems Overview
1.5.Electrolyzer systems comparison - operating parameters
1.6.PEMEL-AWE efficiency trend
1.7.Pros and cons of electrolyzer technologies
1.8.SOEL systems: a substitute for AWE?
1.9.Global hydrogen policies
1.10.Global electrolyzer players
1.11.Electrolyzer component vendors
1.12.Drivers and restraints
1.13.Main hydrogen end-uses
1.14.Hydrogen demand forecast
1.15.Hydrogen growth sectors
1.16.Green hydrogen end sectors
1.17.Electrolyzer market forecast
1.18.Future trend of the electrolyzer market
2.2.Potential end-uses for green hydrogen
2.3.Power-to-X (P2X)
2.4.What is the hydrogen economy?
2.5.Hydrogen Economy Development
2.6.BEV and FCEVs
2.7.The role of green hydrogen in decarbonisation
2.8.Main hydrogen end-uses
2.9.The colors of hydrogen
2.10.The colors of hydrogen
2.11.Blue hydrogen
2.12.Common features of processes using natural gas
2.13.Steam-methane reforming (SMR) + CCUS
2.14.What is green hydrogen?
3.1.Carbon pricing
3.1.1.Emission trading system
3.2.Carbon pricing
3.2.1.Carbon pricing across the world
3.2.2.Challenges with carbon pricing
3.2.3.The European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS)
3.2.4.Carbon pricing in the European Union
3.2.5.Has the EU ETS had an impact?
3.2.6.Carbon pricing in the UK
3.2.7.Carbon pricing in the US
3.2.8.Carbon pricing in China
3.2.9.Carbon pricing in South Africa
4.1.1.Electrolyzer Systems Overview
4.1.2.Electrolyzer systems overview
4.1.3.System performance examples
4.1.4.System performance examples
4.1.5.Electrolyzer degradation
4.1.6.System design schematic examples
4.2.Alkaline electrolysers
4.2.1.Alkaline water electrolysis
4.2.2.AWE Electrolyzers system overview
4.2.3.Alkaline electrolyzer: cathode reaction
4.2.4.Alkaline electrolyzer: cathode materials (HER)
4.2.5.Alkaline electrolyzer: anode reaction (OER)
4.2.6.Alkaline electrolyzer: anode materials (OER)
4.2.7.AWE Anode-Cathode summary
4.2.8.Zero-gap alkaline electrolysers
4.2.9.AWE system - 'Zero-Gap' configuration advantages
4.2.10.AWE Diaphragm Characteristics
4.2.11.Commercial AWE diaphragms
4.2.12.AWE spacer and electrolyte
4.2.13.AWE: Membrane Electrode Assembly (MEA)
4.2.14.Anion exchange membrane water electrolyzer
4.2.15.Commercial AEM electrolyte and cell performances
4.2.16.Large scale AWE system
4.2.17.Alkaline electrolyzer technology development
4.2.18.Hysata cell design
4.2.19.System level improvements from bubble-free configuration
4.2.20.Next Hydrogen Solutions
4.2.21.AWE Supply chain
4.3.PEM electrolysers
4.3.2.PEM electrolyzers systems: Materials, Specifics
4.3.3.Proton Exchange Membrane Electrolyzer
4.3.4.Three Phase Boundary and Proton Exchange Membrane
4.3.5.PEMEL Working Mechanism
4.3.6.PEMEL stack and components
4.3.7.Electrolyzer system: BOP and Stack
4.3.8.OER Electrocatalyst
4.3.9.HER Electrocatalyst
4.3.10.Electrocatalyst Degradation
4.3.11.Electrocatalyst Degradation
4.3.12.PEMEL Membrane: Overview
4.3.13.Membrane degradation problems
4.3.14.Membrane degradation processes
4.3.15.Membrane degradation processes
4.3.16.Current Collectors (CCs)
4.3.17.Bipolar Plates (BPs)
4.3.18.Bipolar plate materials
4.3.19.Titanium BP drawbacks
4.3.20.PEMEL Technical overview
4.3.21.PEMEL cost breakdown
4.3.22.PEMEL Supply chain
4.3.23.PEM catalyst demand
4.3.24.PGM free PEM electrolysers
4.4.Solid-oxide electrolysers
4.4.1.SOEL overview
4.4.2.Solid Oxide Electrolyzer: introduction
4.4.3.Solid Oxide Electrolyzer efficiency
4.4.4.Reversible SOFC
4.4.5.Solid Oxide Electrolyzer: Solid Electrolyte
4.4.6.Solid Oxide Electrolyzer: Electrodes
4.4.7.SOEL Electrolyzers systems: Materials, Specifics
4.4.8.SOEL Market
4.4.9.SOEL supply chain
4.4.10.New high-temperature electrolysis technology
4.5.Electrolyzer technology comparisons and conclusions
4.5.1.Commercialised electrolyzer efficiency comparison
4.5.2.Electrolyzers efficiency charts
4.5.3.PEMEL Efficiency trend
4.5.4.PEMEL-AWE efficiency trend
4.5.5.PEMEL-AWE efficiency trend
4.5.6.Pros and cons of electrolyzer technologies
4.5.7.Electrolyzer improvements
4.5.8.Dynamic Operation Property
4.5.9.Challenges with dynamic operation of alkaline water electrolysers (AWE)
4.5.10.Challenges with dynamic operation of PEM and SOEC
4.5.11.PEM design trade-offs for dynamic operation
4.5.12.Is dynamic SOEC operation possible?
4.5.13.Academic highlights
4.5.14.Academic highlights
4.5.15.Electrolyzer technology state of development
5.1.Major global hydrogen policies
5.2.2021/22 geopolitics
5.3.Electricity prices
5.4.2022 impact on H2 price
5.5.Electrolyzer Manufacturers: Overview
5.6.Market Overview
5.7.European associations
5.8.Hydrogen projects in Europe
5.9.Hydrogen related projects
5.10.Electrolyzer manufacturers
5.11.Electrolyzer vendors by region
5.12.Electrolyzer vendors by region
5.13.Electrolyzer vendors by region
5.14.Electrolyzer manufacturing market
5.15.Electrolyzer manufacturing capacity
5.16.Electrolyzer manufacturing capacity development
5.17.Electrolyzer technology split
5.18.Electrolyzer technology split
5.19.Electrolyzer technology adoption
5.20.PEM catalyst demand
5.21.Electrolyzer technology outlook
5.22.Electrolyzer technology outlook
5.23.Recent commercial activity
5.24.Recent commercial activity
5.25.Comparison of electrolyzer systems - Materials
5.26.Electrolyzer systems comparison - Operating parameters
5.27.Downstream electrolyzers component vendors
5.28.Electrolyzer players
5.29.Market Addressed by EL manufacturer
5.30.Companies Interviewed by IDTechEx
6.1.Nel ASA
6.2.H2U Technologies
6.3.Next Hydrogen Solutions
6.6.ITM Power
6.7.Plug Power
6.8.Bloom Energy
6.12.H-Tec Systems
6.13.Avium, LLC
6.15.OxEon Energy
7.1.Forecast Assumptions
7.2.Main hydrogen end-uses
7.3.Hydrogen demand forecast
7.4.Total addressable markets
7.5.Hydrogen growth sectors
7.6.Green hydrogen end sectors
7.7.Electrolyzer market forecast

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그린수소 생산: 전해조 시장 (2023- 2033년)

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슬라이드 186
Companies 15
ISBN 9781915514493

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