Electric vehicles and their batteries are becoming a far larger business than most realise. Lithium-ion batteries are the clear winner, with only a few percent of their business threatened by alternatives such as other advanced batteries and supercapacitors even in 2030. To understand that, the whole opportunity from land, water and air to hybrid and pure electric vehicles must be reappraised. Enter the 165+ page IDTechEx report, "Lithium-Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles 2020-2030" with detailed granular market analytics and technology assessments at both the cell and pack-level.

 

The largest market for lithium-ion batteries LIB is and will remain electric vehicles, mainly cars, from 2020-2030. In these applications they almost always have the best compromise of performance, cost, weight and size. However, there are surprises revealed when a careful, fact-based analysis is carried out. In 2030, the EV market leaps to over $3 billion but with cars losing share and burgeoning demand for much smaller and much larger battery packs than those used in cars. The report calculates LIB demand if supplies are unconstrained and prices competitive, revealing that current commitments to Gigafactory building are woefully inadequate for meeting this in only a few years from now. There are also large geographic differences in both the demand, with dramatically different average car battery capacity, and in the supply chain.

 

Both the cell and the pack demand are forecasted. Indeed, the detail goes down to 100 types of EV by year and the way engineers are working round the excessive percentage of vehicle cost represented by the battery. There are potential shortages of materials and other issues identified in the report because this is sober analysis not evangelism for the industry. For example, IDTechEx argues that cell cost cannot continue to drop sharply as more expensive materials are introduced in the pursuance of higher energy density.

 

The report provides a deep technology dive in two of the most rapidly evolving areas for this industry: cell chemistry and thermal management.

The cell chemistry continues to develop to higher energy densities, with the nickel-rich NMC 811 the latest and most notable cathode iteration to take to the road. Beyond that advanced Li-ion batteries and solid-state batteries are rapidly emerging into commercial areas. This report benchmarks the key technologies as well as highlighting notable players and partnerships.

 

 

~Source IDTechEx

 

The thermal management design at pack level is still yet to get close to a consensus on the best strategy. Different notable players are pursuing air, liquid, or refrigerant-cooled methods each with their own benefits and weaknesses. The thermal interface materials are also experiencing a large degree of market turbulence and new methods continue to arise in immersion cooling, phase-change material encasements, and tab cooling. This is all with the backdrop of a shifting regulatory landscape in-light of high-profile incidents of thermal runaway.

Finally, this report looks at the opportunities for the lithium-ion battery after their serviceable life in a vehicle. End-of-life does not mean end-of-service and many OEMs are building strategies around this with applications varying from charging infrastructure to low-speed vehicles.

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