자율주행 자동차 기술동향 및 시장전망 2025-2045: SAE 단계(L0, L1, L2, L3, L4) 별 자율주행차, 로보택시 및 상용 서비스, ADAS, LiDAR, 레이더 및 카메라, 시장 예측 및 시장 점유율

IDTechEx의 이 보고서는 다음과 같은 주요 정보를 제공합니다.

 

모든 레벨의 자율주행차 현황 및 동향

 

2020년-2023년 판매된 차량 기준 ADAS, 센서 채택률

 

자율주행 모빌리티

 

자율주행차량, 로보택시, 로보택시 서비스, 자율주행 센서 시장예측

 

이 보고서에서 다루는 주요 내용/목차는 아래와 같습니다.

 

1. 핵심 요약

2. 개요

3. 자율주행 차량에 대한 규제 및 입법 진행 상황

4. 개인 자율주행 차량

5. 로보택시

6. 자율주행 관련 기술

7. 시장 예측 및 전망

 

The global robotaxi vehicle market value in 2045 will be US$174 billion, growing with a 20-year CAGR of 37% between 2025 and 2045 and with a market share dominated by leaders from the US and China, such as Google's Waymo, GM's Cruise, WeRide, Baidu, and AutoX.

 

 

For many years the term level 2+ has been used to describe high component level 2 ADAS systems that provide a well-refined highway assist experience, with smooth lane cantering abilities and robust adaptive cruise control. It has now become a solid stepping stone between level 2 and level 3 with the plus signifying that drivers can take their hands off the wheel while still monitoring the road.

 

 

Over the past few years the availability of hands-free driving in the private car market has grown significantly. The market has been established since 2017 with early Super Cruise systems from General Motors. In 2024 General Motors has more than 20 models with Super Cruise available and is expanding to 750,000 miles of mapped roads to use the system on. Ford also has made a significant milestone by being the first OEM to offer level 2+ across Europe with its BlueCruise system. This report covers the full extent to which companies are offering level 2+ hands-off, eyes-on technologies, how many miles they are available on, and the laws and rules around level 2+ deployment in each region.

 

The key difference between level 2+ and level 3 is that eyes-on becomes eyes-off. This effectively means that the OEM becomes liable for anything that happens while the vehicle is reporting that it is operating at level 3. So far, the only OEMs happy to accept this have been Mercedes and BMW, the former having certified level 3 driving in Germany, California, and Nevada, and the latter only having the technology in Germany.

 

Level 3 has been allowed on the roads since 2021, with a very small deployment from Honda in Japan. Following that, Mercedes certified its system in Germany in 2022, then in the US in 2023. Since then BMW has been certified in Germany and Mercedes has announced intentions to raise its maximum operating speed from 60kph (~40mph) to 95kph (~60mph). By the end of 2024, IDTechEx had expected to see more regions getting level 3 certification and more companies, especially GM and Ford, certifying their technologies. Progress has been much slower than initially thought, something that is reflected in IDTechEx's forecasts. IDTechEx now sees level 2+ as a more significant avenue of development, with level 3 likely to pick up in a few years time.

 

Given the slow start that level 3 vehicles have had, IDTechEx now thinks their deployment and adoption will be much slower than initially predicted. See the full report for the technologies available on these vehicles, all the rules surrounding level 3 deployment, and IDTechEx's predictions for how level 3 technologies will spread.

 

The robotaxi market is coming of age, with multiple commercial driverless robotaxi services coming online across the US and China in the past couple of years. Key players in these regions such as Google's Waymo, GM's Cruise, Baidu's Apollo Go, and Amazon-backed Zoox, have now accumulated tens of millions of miles of real-world driving. Between them, these companies now have more than 2,000 robotaxis on the road, collecting data to fuel AI drivers, proving autonomous drivers can drive safely, and serving mobility as a service customers. For example, in Wuhan, Baidu has 500 robotaxis serving customers, hoping to scale to 1,000 by the end of 2024.

 

Now that commercial driverless robotaxi services have become established, IDTechEx expects at least a handful of new provider and location combinations to come online each year; for example, Waymo has already been confirmed in Austin and Atlanta. In the US and China this will soon build to a flurry of cities and services, with IDTechEx expecting the sale of robotaxi vehicles to reach US$174 billion in 2045, representing a 37% CAGR from 2025.

 

In addition to the US and China, IDTechEx expects driverless robotaxi services in Europe and Japan to begin soon, see the full report for when.

 

This report gives details of all the main robotaxi deployments, including fleet numbers and service area in square miles. IDTechEx tracks which cities have had commercial robotaxi deployments, analyzes the data and provides a 20-year forecast for the emergence of fully autonomous robotaxi services.

 

 

List of autonomous vehicle players:

 

 

Coverage of autonomous vehicles at all levels

 

Uptake of ADAS features and sensors on private cars, adoption percentages from vehicles sold in 2020 to 2023 for

 

Autonomous mobility as a service deployments

 

Enabling technologies and key developments therein

 

20-year forecast of private vehicle sales, robotaxi sales, robotaxi services, and autonomous driving sensor sales in:

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