This report has been updated. Click here to view latest edition.
If you have previously purchased the archived report below then please use the download links on the right to download the files.
| 1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS |
| 1.1. | Radically new missions now possible |
| 1.1. | The DeFly Micro UAV |
| 1.1. | Number of electric aircraft, sold globally, Military / Security vs Other, 2013-2024 |
| 1.2. | Prices of pure electric manned, single person aircraft in thousands of dollars |
| 1.2. | SmartBird |
| 1.2. | Most successful pure electric UAV |
| 1.3. | All parts subject to disruptive change |
| 1.3. | "Flying Wing" by VTOL Technologies |
| 1.3. | Project costs of electric aircraft in millions of dollars |
| 1.4. | AeroVironment Raven UAV |
| 1.4. | Gradual UAV electrification - plasma leading edges |
| 1.5. | Energy storage comparisons |
| 1.5. | Collaborative UAV missions |
| 1.6. | Light utility aircraft - power-systems weight comparison |
| 1.6. | Supercapacitors |
| 1.7. | Traction motors |
| 1.7. | Light primary trainer - power-systems weight comparison |
| 1.8. | Battery and jet fuel loading |
| 1.8. | Broad view is vital |
| 1.9. | Where is the leadership? |
| 1.9. | Proposed affordable VTOLs |
| 1.10. | Flight of the Century pure electric plane |
| 1.10. | Need for more benchmarking |
| 1.11. | Market projections 2013-2024 |
| 1.11. | Sunseeker Duo solar plane |
| 1.12. | UCLA graphene supercapacitor presentation slides - examples |
| 1.12. | 7th Annual CAFE Electric Aircraft Symposium: Day 1 |
| 1.12.1. | VTOL, hybrids and energy harvesting come center stage |
| 1.12.2. | Carbon fiber gets easier |
| 1.12.3. | Lithium-ion batteries need care |
| 1.12.4. | Disquiet about the Boeing Dreamliner |
| 1.12.5. | Way out energy sources |
| 1.12.6. | Graphene |
| 1.12.7. | Thin film photovoltaic but not yet |
| 1.13. | 7th Annual CAFE Electric Aircraft Symposium: Day 2 |
| 1.13. | Further slides from UCLA |
| 1.14. | Thin film photovoltaics |
| 1.14. | Agricultural uses multiply in 2014-5 |
| 1.15. | Presentation by Dr Brien Seeley |
| 1.16. | Some Pipistrel slides |
| 1.17. | Dan Raymer slide selection |
| 1.18. | Some of the Electraflyer slides |
| 2. | INTRODUCTION |
| 2.1. | Definitions and scope |
| 2.1. | Bionic Dolphin and Neckar Nymph |
| 2.2. | Gannet diving and planned Cormorant military spy plane/submarine |
| 2.2. | Needs |
| 2.3. | Impediments |
| 2.4. | Benchmarking best practice with land and seagoing EVs |
| 3. | TECHNOLOGIES |
| 3.1. | Powertrains |
| 3.1. | Hybrid technology evolving as traction batteries improve |
| 3.1. | Electric vehicle drivetrain options, with those most adopted and prioritised for the future shown shaded |
| 3.1.1. | Pure electric vs hybrid |
| 3.1.2. | Convergence |
| 3.1.3. | Options |
| 3.1.4. | Hybrid UAVs |
| 3.1.5. | Range extenders |
| 3.1.6. | Superconducting motor with range extender |
| 3.2. | Electric traction motors |
| 3.2. | Summary of preferences of traction motor technology for vehicles |
| 3.2. | The convergence of hybrid and pure electric technologies |
| 3.2.1. | Traction motors for land, water and air vehicles |
| 3.3. | Shape of motors |
| 3.3. | GE electric aircraft configuration |
| 3.3. | Advantages vs disadvantages of brushed vs brushless vehicle traction motors for today's vehicles |
| 3.4. | Most likely winners and losers in the next decade |
| 3.4. | Location of motors sold in 2022 in vehicles in which they are fitted, in millions of motors and percent of all motors with all figures rounded |
| 3.4. | Location of motors |
| 3.5. | Traction motor technology preference |
| 3.5. | Supplier numbers listed by continent |
| 3.5. | Supplier numbers listed by continent |
| 3.6. | Traction motor supplier numbers listed by country in alphabetical order |
| 3.6. | Traction motor supplier numbers listed by country |
| 3.6. | Blunt motor talk at EV Japan January 2012 |
| 3.7. | Switched reluctance motors a disruptive traction motor technology? |
| 3.7. | Targeted applications on top vs market value split in 2012 centre and 2022 on bottom |
| 3.7. | Applications targeted by our sample of motor suppliers vs market split, listed in order of 2012 market size |
| 3.8. | Suppliers of vehicle traction motors - split between number offering asynchronous, synchronous and both, where identified |
| 3.8. | Suppliers of vehicle traction motors - split between number offering asynchronous, synchronous and both, where identified |
| 3.8. | Three ways that traction motors makers race to escape rare earths |
| 3.8.1. | Synchronous motors with new magnets |
| 3.8.2. | Asynchronous motors |
| 3.8.3. | More to come |
| 3.9. | Implications for electric aircraft |
| 3.9. | Number of vehicles surveyed that have a mention of using brushed DC synchronous motors, by type of vehicle |
| 3.9. | Suppliers offering brushed, brushless and both types of synchronous motors, where identified |
| 3.10. | Distribution of vehicle sample by applicational sector |
| 3.10. | Number of cars sampled that had one, two, three or four traction electric motors |
| 3.10. | Batteries |
| 3.10.1. | Battery history |
| 3.10.2. | Analogy to a container of liquid |
| 3.10.3. | Construction of a battery |
| 3.10.4. | Many shapes of battery |
| 3.10.5. | Trend to laminar and conformal traction batteries |
| 3.10.6. | Aurora laminar batteries in aircraft. |
| 3.10.7. | Choices of chemistry and assembly |
| 3.10.8. | Lithium winners today and soon |
| 3.10.9. | Lithium polymer electrolyte now important |
| 3.10.10. | Winning chemistry |
| 3.10.11. | Winning lithium traction battery manufacturers |
| 3.10.12. | Making lithium batteries safe |
| 3.10.13. | Boeing Dreamliner: Implications for electric aircraft |
| 3.11. | Fuel cells |
| 3.11. | Poster displays concerning switched reluctance traction motors |
| 3.11. | Vehicles with asynchronous, synchronous or both options by category in number and percentage of category, listed in order of declining asynchronous percentage |
| 3.11.1. | Slow progress with fuel cells |
| 3.11.2. | Aerospace and aviation applications |
| 3.11.3. | AeroVironment USA |
| 3.11.4. | Boeing Europe |
| 3.11.5. | ENFICA Italy and UK |
| 3.11.6. | Pipistrel Slovenia |
| 3.11.7. | University of Stuttgart Germany |
| 3.12. | Supercapacitors, supercabatteries |
| 3.12. | 212 electric vehicle models analysed by category for % asynchronous, power and torque of their electric traction motors and where intensive or rough use is most typically encountered. The rated power and traction data are enhanced |
| 3.12. | Multiple electric motors on a NASA solar powered, unmanned aircraft for the upper atmosphere |
| 3.12.1. | What is a capacitor? |
| 3.12.2. | Supercabattery |
| 3.12.3. | Taiyo Yuden Japan |
| 3.12.4. | Extreme Capacitor |
| 3.13. | Energy harvesting |
| 3.13. | The four Cri Cri electric motors |
| 3.13. | Percentage of old and abandoned models in the survey that use asynchronous or synchronous motors |
| 3.13.1. | Multiple forms of energy to be managed |
| 3.13.2. | Photovoltaics |
| 3.13.3. | École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne Switzerland |
| 3.13.4. | ETH Zurich Switzerland |
| 3.13.5. | Green Pioneer China |
| 3.13.6. | Gossamer Penguin USA |
| 3.13.7. | Néphélios France |
| 3.13.8. | Silent Falcon™ UAS Technologies |
| 3.13.9. | Soaring China |
| 3.13.10. | Solair Germany |
| 3.13.11. | Sunseeker USA |
| 3.13.12. | University of Applied Sciences Schwäbisch Gmünd Germany |
| 3.13.13. | US Air Force |
| 3.13.14. | Northrop Grumman USA |
| 3.14. | Other energy harvesting |
| 3.14. | Number of vehicles surveyed that have a mention of using brushed DC synchronous motors, by type of vehicle |
| 3.14. | Construction of a battery cell |
| 3.15. | Approximate percentage of manufacturers offering traction batteries with less cobalt vs those offering ones with no cobalt vs those offering both. We also show the number of suppliers that offer lithium iron phosphate versions. |
| 3.15. | Other motor features declared by vehicle manufacturers |
| 3.15. | Regenerative soaring |
| 3.16. | Biomimetic aircraft snatch and export power? |
| 3.16. | Number of cars sampled that had one, two, three or four traction electric motors |
| 3.16. | The UPS 747 that crashed in the UAE with a shipment of lithium batteries |
| 3.16.1. | IFO-Energy Unlimited in Hungary |
| 3.16.2. | Copy the birds |
| 3.16.3. | How to capture the wind? |
| 3.16.4. | Valid physics |
| 3.16.5. | How to maintain altitude? |
| 3.16.6. | Storage of energy is more challenging |
| 3.16.7. | Onboard superconducting technology? |
| 3.16.8. | Flywheels and EV technologies? |
| 3.16.9. | Soaring airliners? |
| 3.17. | Power beaming |
| 3.17. | Burning Dreamliner pictures |
| 3.17. | What is on the way in or out with traction batteries |
| 3.18. | 138 manufacturers and putative manufacturers of lithium-based rechargeable batteries showing country, cathode and anode chemistry, electrolyte form, case, targeted applicational sectors and sales relationships and successes by veh |
| 3.18. | Principle of PEM fuel cell |
| 3.18. | Hybrid powertrains in action |
| 3.18.1. | Multifuel and monoblock engines |
| 3.18.2. | Beyond Aviation: formerly Bye Energy USA, France |
| 3.18.3. | Flight Design Germany |
| 3.18.4. | Lotus UK |
| 3.18.5. | Microturbines - Bladon Jets, Capstone, ETV Motors, Atria |
| 3.19. | Hybrid aircraft projects |
| 3.19. | PEM fuel cell in long endurance upper atmosphere unmanned aircraft |
| 3.19. | Five ways in which a capacitor acts as the electrical equivalent of the spring |
| 3.19.1. | Delta Airlines USA |
| 3.19.2. | DLR Germany |
| 3.19.3. | EADS Germany |
| 3.19.4. | Flight Design Germany |
| 3.19.5. | GSE USA |
| 3.19.6. | Krossblade USA |
| 3.19.7. | Ricardo UK |
| 3.19.8. | Turtle Airships Spain |
| 3.19.9. | University of Bristol UK |
| 3.19.10. | University of Colorado USA |
| 3.20. | Rethinking the structural design |
| 3.20. | Examples of energy density figures for batteries, supercapacitors and other energy sources |
| 3.20. | Japanese ten meter long deep sea cruising fuel cell AUV, the URASHIMA, delivering formidable power |
| 3.21. | Pilot plus payload vs range for fuel cell light aircraft and alternatives |
| 3.21. | Comparison of the three types of capacitor when storing one kilojoule of energy. |
| 3.22. | Pros and cons of supercapacitors as relevant to aviation |
| 3.22. | Total weight vs flight time for PEM fuel cell planes |
| 3.23. | Takeoff gross weight breakdowns. Left: Conventional reciprocating-engine-powered airplane. Right: Fuel-cell-powered airplane. |
| 3.23. | Multiple forms of energy management in aviation |
| 3.24. | Choices of flexible photovoltaics |
| 3.24. | Boeing fuel cell powered FCD aircraft |
| 3.25. | ENFICA FC fuel cell plane |
| 3.26. | Hydrogenius |
| 3.27. | Comparison of construction diagrams of three basic types of capacitor |
| 3.28. | Rechargeable energy storage - where supercapacitors fit in |
| 3.29. | Energy density vs power density for storage devices |
| 3.30. | Supercapacitor construction on left compared with supercabattery on right, otherwise known as an asymmetric electrochemical double layer capacitor. |
| 3.31. | Alternair Amp General Arrangement Drawing |
| 3.32. | Electric Eagle air taxi concept |
| 3.33. | Experience curve for new photovoltaic technologies |
| 3.34. | Ubiquitous flexible photovoltaics |
| 3.35. | Solar Impulse |
| 3.36. | Solar impulse construction |
| 3.37. | ETH Zurich solar powered unmanned aircraft for civil use |
| 3.38. | Green Pioneer I |
| 3.39. | Gossamer Penguin |
| 3.40. | Néphélios planned solar airship |
| 3.41. | Silent Falcon™ solar electric unmanned aerial system |
| 3.42. | Test Flight of Soaring in 1994 |
| 3.43. | Design of Soaring |
| 3.44. | Bubble Plane |
| 3.45. | Solar and fuel cell powered airship concept |
| 3.46. | Northrop Grumman hybrid airship |
| 3.47. | Electraflyer Trike |
| 3.48. | Electraflyer uncowled |
| 3.49. | LaserMotive objectives illustrated |
| 3.50. | A hybrid boat |
| 3.51. | Lotus monoblock hybrid engine |
| 3.52. | Adura MESA powertrain for buses and trucks employing Capstone turbine range extender |
| 3.53. | The Bladon Jets microturbine range extender |
| 3.54. | Twin Bladon jets in rear of Jaguar C-X75 concept supercar exhibited in 2010 |
| 3.55. | Planned Velozzi supercar with miniturbine range extender |
| 3.56. | The diesel-electric hybrid propulsion helicopter concept is one of the eco-friendly solutions being evaluated by EADS for rotary-wing aircraft |
| 3.57. | GSE mini diesel driving a propeller |
| 3.58. | Greg Stevenson (left) and Gene Sheehan, Fueling Team GFC contender, with GSE Engines. |
| 3.59. | Block diagram of the Frank/Stevenson parallel hybrid system |
| 3.60. | Ricardo Wolverine engine for hybrid UAVs |
| 3.61. | Turtle Airship landed on water in concept drawing |
| 3.62. | Glassock hybrid set up for dynamometer testing |
| 3.63. | University of Colorado hybrid aeroengine |
| 3.64. | US Airforce interest in smart sensing skin for aircraft and aircrew |
| 3.65. | T-Ink printed and laminated overhead control console for an electric car |
| 3.66. | T-Ink washable heated apparel based on printed elements |
| 4. | SMALL UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES AND OTHER EXOTICA |
| 4.1. | SUAV |
| 4.1. | Examples of SUAV rechargeable lithium batteries. Top: Flight Power "EVO 20" lithium polymer battery. Bottom: Sion Power lithium sulphur |
| 4.1. | Data for RQ-11A version of AeroVironment Raven |
| 4.1.1. | Airbus becomes a quadcopter user in 2014 |
| 4.1.2. | In 2014: UAR Postal, DJI Innovations, Estes, ISQ, Scan Eagle |
| 4.1.3. | Aurora Skate UAV wins border protection award |
| 4.1.4. | AeroVironment small UAVs |
| 4.1.5. | Hirobo Japan |
| 4.1.6. | Rotomotion |
| 4.1.7. | Robot insects |
| 4.1.8. | Reconnaissance bugs and bats |
| 4.1.9. | Nano air vehicle |
| 4.1.10. | Lite Machines Corporation USA |
| 4.1.11. | NRL launch an unmanned aerial vehicle from a submerged submarine |
| 4.1.12. | University of Arizona |
| 4.1.13. | Vienna University of Technology |
| 4.2. | Large electrical UAVs |
| 4.2. | Aeroplanes but not as we know them - SPI electrical SUAV |
| 4.2.1. | VESPAS Europe |
| 4.2.2. | AeroVironment Helios and Global Observer |
| 4.2.3. | AeroVironment/ NASA USA |
| 4.2.4. | Airbus HAPS solar plane |
| 4.2.5. | Boeing and Versa USA, QinetiQ & Newcastle University UK |
| 4.2.6. | Japanese solar sail to Venus |
| 4.2.7. | QinetiQ UK |
| 4.2.8. | Solar Flight USA |
| 4.3. | New uses of small UAVs 2014-5 |
| 4.3. | Aurora Skate UAV- award winning in 2012 |
| 4.3.1. | Mini helicopters tracking weeds |
| 4.3.2. | Drones to better understand how diseases spread |
| 4.3.3. | Drones used to monitor behaviour of killer whales |
| 4.3.4. | NMSU tests unmanned aircraft over active mine |
| 4.4. | AeroVironment Raven |
| 4.5. | Raven enhancement |
| 4.6. | Aqua Puma |
| 4.7. | Rotomotion VTOL electrical UAV incorporating video camera, telemetry, auto takeoff and landing |
| 4.8. | Examples of robot insects |
| 4.9. | UAS nano swarm vignette |
| 4.10. | COM-BAT concept |
| 4.11. | Military hummingbird |
| 4.12. | Lite Machines Voyeur UAV |
| 4.13. | Voyeur in action |
| 4.14. | TEX II Lake Lander |
| 4.15. | The Quadcopter, built at TU Vienna |
| 4.16. | The Quadcopter-Team: Annette Mossel, Christoph Kaltenriner, Hannes Kaufmann, Michael Leichtfried (left to right.) |
| 4.17. | AeroVironment Helios |
| 4.18. | Global Observer first flight August 2010 |
| 4.19. | Odysseus self assembling unmanned electric UAV |
| 4.20. | Sunlight Eagle |
| 4.21. | Lockheed Martin morphing electric UAV |
| 4.22. | Lockheed flying cameras based on tree seeds |
| 4.23. | Integrated Sensor Is Structure (ISIS) smart airship |
| 4.24. | Lockheed Martin solar airship and P791 concepts |
| 4.25. | Military deployment of solar/ fuel cell UAVs |
| 4.26. | Helios |
| 4.27. | SolarEagle |
| 4.28. | IKAROS |
| 4.29. | Larry Mauro USA |
| 4.30. | Solar Flight |
| 5. | UAV DEPLOYMENT |
| 5.1. | AeroVironment / CybAero USA, Sweden |
| 5.1. | The CybAero UAV |
| 5.2. | Planned flight of Flight of the Century pure electric aircraft |
| 5.2. | Flight of the Century USA |
| 5.3. | NASA testing electric propulsion |
| 5.3. | Test bed aircraft for design of Flight of the Century |
| 5.4. | GL-10 Greased Lightning |
| 5.4. | Windward Performance USA |
| 6. | FIFTEEN YEAR TIMELINE AND MARKET NUMBERS |
| 6.1. | Forecast sales 2013-2023 |
| 6.1. | Artist concept of an energy efficient NASA aircraft that could enter service in 2025 designed by a team led by Northrop Grumman |
| 6.1. | Number of electric aircraft, sold globally, Military / Security vs Other, 2013-2023 |
| 6.2. | UAV market numbers 2011-2023 |
| 6.2. | NASA preview of The Boeing Company team design |
| 6.2. | Energy efficient aircraft - the next 15 years |
| 6.3. | Swarming, self-healing networks of UAVs |
| 6.3. | Artist's concept of the Lockheed Martin team design |
| 6.3. | UAV market unit value 2011-2023, in dollars million |
| 6.3.1. | Swarming 3D eye-bots in Germany |
| 6.4. | Total market value for UAVs 2011-2023, in dollars million |
| 6.4. | UAS far term implementation by the US Army |
| 6.4. | UAV payload market |
| 6.4.1. | Amazon drone delivery |
| 6.4.2. | UAVs can recharge their batteries by perching on power lines |
| 6.5. | The sensor system |
| APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY | |
| TABLES | |
| FIGURES |
| Pages | 220 |
|---|---|
| Tables | 32 |
| Figures | 125 |
| 전망 | 2024 |