1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
1.1. | Report Overview |
1.2. | The Rise of Zero Emission Trucks |
1.3. | Key Report Findings (1) |
1.4. | Key Report Findings (2) |
1.5. | CO2 Emission: Medium & Heavy-Duty Trucks |
1.6. | Zero Emission Trucks: Drivers and Barriers |
1.7. | Range of Zero Emission M&HD Trucks |
1.8. | Installed Battery Capacity by Truck Weight |
1.9. | Installed Motor Power by Truck Weight |
1.10. | What do Electric Trucks Need to Deliver |
1.11. | Duty Cycle Energy Considerations |
1.12. | BEV Trucks Already Offer Sufficient Range |
1.13. | Heavy-Duty Trucks: BEV or Fuel Cell |
1.14. | 5-year TCO ICE, BEV, FCEV, H₂-ICE |
1.15. | Green H₂ for FCEV Trucks to be 'Green' |
1.16. | The Importance of Grid Carbon Intensity |
1.17. | Medium & Heavy-Duty Truck Sales Forecast |
1.18. | M&HDT Global Sales: BEV, PHEV and FCEV |
1.19. | eM&HDT Battery Demand Forecast (GWh) |
1.20. | eM&HDT Sales by Region |
1.21. | eM&HDT Market Forecast ($US billion) |
1.22. | Portal Company Background Profiles |
1.23. | Forecast Commentary |
2. | TRUCK DEFINITIONS |
2.1. | Electric Vehicle Definitions |
2.2. | Truck Weight Definitions |
2.3. | Truck Type |
2.4. | Truck Axle Layout Descriptions |
3. | DRIVERS FOR ZERO-EMISSION |
3.1. | Main Driver for Sector Decarbonization |
3.2. | Greenhouse Gas Emission |
3.3. | GHG Emission: China, U.S. & Europe |
3.4. | CO2 Emission: Medium & Heavy-Duty Trucks |
3.5. | EU27+UK GHG Emission by Sector |
3.6. | Europe Road Transport GHG Emission |
3.7. | U.S. Transport Related GHG Emission |
3.8. | U.S. Road Transport GHG Emission |
3.9. | GHG Emission From The Truck Sector |
3.10. | CO2 Emission from Electricity Generation |
3.11. | Urban Air Quality |
3.12. | Fossil Fuel Bans in Cities |
3.13. | Emission Regulation for New Trucks |
3.14. | Heavy-Duty Emission Standards |
3.15. | Fuel / CO2 Regulation for New Trucks |
3.16. | Fuel Saving Technology Areas |
3.17. | Fossil Fuel Bans |
3.18. | OEMs Endorse Transition to Zero-Emission |
3.19. | OEM Statements |
3.20. | What do Electric Trucks Need to Deliver |
3.21. | Zero Emission Truck Considerations |
4. | TCO CONSIDERATIONS |
4.1. | Total Cost of Ownership |
4.2. | TCO Considerations Zero Emission Trucks |
4.3. | TCO Considerations: Battery Pack Cost |
4.4. | Zero Emission Tractor Truck Cost Breakdown |
4.5. | Truck Price Forecast by Powertrain |
4.6. | BEV Truck Fuel Cost Savings |
4.7. | Electric Trucks Reduced Operating Costs |
4.8. | Overcoming Barriers for Zero Emission Trucks |
4.9. | More Carrot, More Stick |
4.10. | Powertrain CAPEX Costs |
4.11. | 5-year TCO ICE, BEV, FCEV, H₂-ICE |
4.12. | TCO FCEV Trucks vs Battery Electric |
4.13. | External Cost of Heavy-Duty Trucks |
5. | EUROPEAN TRUCK MARKET |
5.1. | Overview |
5.1.1. | Europe: Addressable Truck Market 2021 |
5.1.2. | Europe: Addressable Truck Market 2020 |
5.1.3. | Medium and Heavy-Duty Truck Sales in Europe |
5.1.4. | Average European Diesel Price |
5.1.5. | EU 2030: 30% Cut in Truck CO2 Emissions |
5.1.6. | Financial Driver: Legislation in Europe |
5.1.7. | Powertrain and Range |
5.1.8. | OEMs Combine on Charging Infrastructure |
5.2. | European e-Truck Players |
5.2.1. | European Electric Truck Sales 2016-2021 |
5.2.2. | Europe BEV Truck Sales by Country |
5.2.3. | Volvo Trucks FE and FL Electric |
5.2.4. | Volvo Trucks VERA |
5.2.5. | Volvo FM, FMX and FH Electric |
5.2.6. | Renault Trucks (Volvo Group) |
5.2.7. | Renault Trucks D Wide Z.E. |
5.2.8. | Renault BEV Refuse Truck at EVS 32 |
5.2.9. | Volvo Group Electrification |
5.2.10. | Mercedes-Benz (Daimler) eMobility |
5.2.11. | Mercedes-Benz (Daimler) eActros |
5.2.12. | Daimler eActros "Innovation Fleet" |
5.2.13. | FUSO eCanter (Daimler / Mitsubishi) |
5.2.14. | DAF (PACCAR) |
5.2.15. | DAF (PACCAR) CF Hybrid |
5.2.16. | TRATON e-Truck Orders 2021 |
5.2.17. | Scania (TRATON) BEV Truck |
5.2.18. | Scania (TRATON) PHEV Truck |
5.2.19. | Scania (TRATON) |
5.2.20. | MAN (TRATON) eTGM |
5.2.21. | MAN (TRATON) Future e-Truck |
5.2.22. | Futuricum Electric Concrete Mixer Truck |
5.2.23. | Other European Electric Trucks |
6. | U.S. TRUCK MARKET |
6.1. | Overview |
6.1.1. | US: Addressable Truck Market 2021 |
6.1.2. | US: Addressable Truck Market 2020 |
6.1.3. | U.S. New Truck Sales by Class 2017-2021 |
6.1.4. | U.S. Truck Sales by OEM Brand |
6.1.5. | Medium and Heavy-Duty Truck Sales in the U.S. |
6.1.6. | U.S. Annual Truck Market Sales |
6.1.7. | U.S. Average Truck Replacement Age |
6.1.8. | U.S. Truck Fleet Statistics |
6.1.9. | Average U.S. On-Highway Diesel Price |
6.1.10. | Operational Costs for US Truckers |
6.1.11. | Rising Truck Fuel Costs |
6.1.12. | U.S. Uptake of Alternative Fuel Trucks |
6.1.13. | The Future: Electric, Autonomous Trucks? |
6.1.14. | U.S. GHG Emission Policy |
6.1.15. | California's Advanced Clean Trucks Regulation |
6.1.16. | CARB Voucher Incentive Project |
6.1.17. | State Support for e-Truck Deployment |
6.1.18. | U.S. Companies Urge Faster Adoption |
6.2. | U.S. e-Truck Players |
6.2.1. | U.S. Electric Trucks |
6.2.2. | U.S. Zero Emission Truck Deployments |
6.2.3. | Significant Market for BEV Trucks |
6.2.4. | U.S. Electric Truck Major OEMs |
6.2.5. | Freightliner (DAIMLER) eM2 |
6.2.6. | Freightliner (DAIMLER) eCascadia |
6.2.7. | Freightliner (DAIMLER) Battery Packs |
6.2.8. | Freightliner Custom Chassis |
6.2.9. | Daimler Invest in Charging Infrastructure |
6.2.10. | Peterbilt (PACCAR) 220EV |
6.2.11. | Peterbilt (PACCAR) 579EV |
6.2.12. | Peterbilt (PACCAR) 520EV |
6.2.13. | Kenworth (PACCAR) T680E |
6.2.14. | Kenworth (PACCAR) K270E / K370E |
6.2.15. | Volvo Trucks North America VNR Electric |
6.2.16. | Mack Trucks (Volvo) LRe |
6.2.17. | Navistar (VW Group) International eMV |
6.2.18. | BYD 8TT Electric Tractor |
6.2.19. | BYD 8TT Electric Tractor |
6.2.20. | Tesla Semi |
6.2.21. | Isuzu / Cummins F-Series |
6.2.22. | Small OEMs / Component Integrators |
6.2.23. | Xos Trucks |
6.2.24. | Nikola |
6.2.25. | Motiv Power Systems |
6.2.26. | Motiv Power Systems |
6.2.27. | SEA Electric |
6.2.28. | Lion Electric |
6.2.29. | Other U.S. Class 4 Electric Trucks |
6.2.30. | Other U.S. Class 5 Electric Trucks |
6.2.31. | Other U.S. Class 6 Electric Trucks |
6.2.32. | Other U.S. Class 7 / 8 Electric Trucks |
6.2.33. | Hyliion Natural Gas Electric PHEV |
6.2.34. | Electric Terminal Tractors |
6.2.35. | Low e-Truck Deployment / Large Orders |
7. | CHINESE TRUCK MARKET |
7.1. | Overview |
7.1.1. | China: Addressable Truck Market 2021 |
7.1.2. | China: Addressable Truck Market 2020 |
7.1.3. | Addressable M&HD Truck Sales in China |
7.1.4. | Road Freight Demand in China |
7.1.5. | China's Truck Market Segments |
7.1.6. | Example Chinese Truck Joint Ventures |
7.1.7. | China Phasing Out EV Subsidies |
7.2. | Chinese e-Truck Players |
7.2.1. | China New Energy Truck Sales 2018-2021 |
7.2.2. | China Zero-Emission Truck Sales by OEM 2021 |
7.2.3. | China NEV Truck Sales by OEM in 2020 |
7.2.4. | China NEV Tractor Sales by Model 2021 |
7.2.5. | Chinese Battery Swapping Dump Trucks |
7.2.6. | Sany Electric Dump Trucks |
7.2.7. | BYD Electric Dump Trucks For Shenzhen |
7.2.8. | Chinese Battery Swapping Dump Trucks |
7.2.9. | Chinese OEMs Electric Mixer Trucks |
7.2.10. | GEELY |
7.2.11. | The Rise of Battery Swapping in China |
7.2.12. | Battery-Swapping Truck Market Share In China |
8. | BENCHMARKING US / EU OEMS |
8.1. | Volvo Trucks |
8.2. | Daimler Trucks |
8.3. | BYD |
8.4. | PACCAR |
8.5. | Traton Group |
8.6. | TESLA |
8.7. | CNH Industrial / IVECO / Nikola |
9. | BATTERY TECHNOLOGY |
9.1. | Overview |
9.1.1. | What is a Li-ion Battery? |
9.1.2. | Electrochemistry Definitions |
9.1.3. | Li-ion Timeline Commentary |
9.1.4. | Types of Lithium Battery |
9.1.5. | Battery Technology Comparison |
9.1.6. | The Promise of Silicon |
9.1.7. | Silicon: Incremental Steps |
9.1.8. | Li-ion Technology Diversification |
9.1.9. | Li-ion Batteries: From Cell to Pack |
9.1.10. | Role of Battery Pack Manufacturers |
9.2. | Battery Pack Players |
9.2.1. | Pack Manufacturers - Europe |
9.2.2. | Pack Manufacturers - North America |
9.2.3. | Asian Module and Pack Manufacturers |
9.2.4. | Battery Pack Comparison |
9.2.5. | Akasol (BorgWarner) |
9.2.6. | Akasol AKASYSTEM |
9.2.7. | Proterra |
9.2.8. | Webasto |
9.2.9. | Cummins |
9.2.10. | Microvast |
9.2.11. | EnerDel |
9.2.12. | American Battery Solutions |
9.2.13. | Leclanche |
9.2.14. | Northvolt Voltpack Core |
9.2.15. | Romeo Power |
9.2.16. | Forsee Power |
9.2.17. | Deutz AG |
9.2.18. | Drivers for 800V Platforms |
10. | BATTERY CHOICE FOR E-TRUCKS |
10.1. | LFP or High-Nickel Cathodes for e-Trucks? |
10.2. | E-Truck OEM Battery Chemistry Choice |
10.3. | Heavy-Duty Battery Choice: Range & Payload |
10.4. | Heavy-Duty Battery Choice: Charging |
10.5. | Heavy-Duty Battery Choice: Reliability |
10.6. | Supply Chain: In-House Pack Assembly |
10.7. | Timeline and Outlook For Li-ion Energy Densities |
10.8. | China Electric Heavy-Duty Truck Battery Suppliers |
10.9. | Chinese Battery Manufacturers for eBuses |
11. | HEAVY-DUTY CHARGING |
11.1. | Overview |
11.1.1. | Charging Infrastructure Critical to Deployment |
11.1.2. | Overview of Charging Levels |
11.2. | Conductive Charging |
11.2.1. | Daimler Truck Commercial EV Charging Park |
11.2.2. | CharIN Charging Standards for Electric CV |
11.2.3. | The Emergence of 'Megawatt Chargers' |
11.2.4. | Tesla Debut Megacharger |
11.2.5. | MEDUSA Project: 3 MW Charging Solutions |
11.2.6. | Detroit eFill Chargers |
11.2.7. | NREL Testing Megawatt Charging Systems |
11.2.8. | Charging: Depot & Opportunity Charging |
11.2.9. | Charging Infrastructure For Heavy-Duty Vehicles |
11.2.10. | Heliox: Public Transport & Heavy-Duty Vehicle Charging |
11.2.11. | Heliox's 13 MW Charging Network for Electric Buses |
11.2.12. | SprintCharge: Battery-Buffered Charging |
11.2.13. | ABB's Smart Depot Charging Solution for Large Fleets |
11.2.14. | ABB: Opportunity Charging |
11.2.15. | ABB's 600 kW TOSA Flash-Charging |
11.2.16. | Siemens: Electric Bus Charging Infrastructure |
11.2.17. | Siemens Autonomous Charging System |
11.3. | Inductive Charging |
11.3.1. | Inductive Charging for Heavy-Duty Applications |
11.3.2. | Momentum Dynamics: High-Power Wireless Charging |
11.3.3. | Case Study: Wireless Charging |
11.3.4. | Inductive Supercharging for Heavy-Duty Vehicles |
11.4. | Battery Swapping |
11.4.1. | The Rise of Battery Swapping in China |
11.4.2. | Battery-Swapping Truck Market Share In China |
11.4.3. | Mounting Swappable Batteries in Trucks |
11.4.4. | Chinese Battery Swapping BEV Trucks |
11.4.5. | Battery Swapping for Electric Buses |
11.4.6. | Bus Stations as Battery Swap Stations? |
11.4.7. | TU Berlin Test Robotic Battery Swapping |
11.4.8. | Side to side swapping for electric buses |
11.4.9. | Sany Debut Battery Swapping Station |
11.4.10. | Edison Motors Buses |
11.4.11. | Foton C10/C12 BEV |
11.5. | Electric Road Systems |
11.5.1. | Types of Electric Road Systems |
11.5.2. | Siemens eHighway |
11.5.3. | Electric Road Systems: Sweden |
11.5.4. | Californian Electric Highway |
11.5.5. | UK Government Investigating E-Highways |
11.5.6. | Volvo Conductive Rail Testing |
11.5.7. | Qualcomm Inductive Power Transfer |
11.5.8. | Summary of Electric Road Systems |
12. | ELECTRIC MOTORS |
12.1. | Summary of Traction Motor Types |
12.2. | Comparison of Traction Motors |
12.3. | Truck Motor Type Market Share / Power Requirements |
12.4. | Magnet Price Increase Risk |
12.5. | Integrated e-Axle Space Advantage |
12.6. | Dana E-Axles |
12.7. | Dana TM4 |
12.8. | Volvo |
12.9. | Meritor Blue Horizon ePowertrain |
12.10. | Meritor 14Xe Electric Drivetrain |
12.11. | Danfoss Editron |
12.12. | Detroit eAxles |
12.13. | Allison Transmission eGen Power e-Axles |
12.14. | ZF Electrification Solutions |
12.15. | BorgWarner |
13. | FUEL CELL ELECTRIC TRUCKS |
13.1. | Fuel Cells Trucks Outlook |
13.2. | Toyota Mobility Roadmap |
13.3. | Attraction of Fuel Cell Vehicles |
13.4. | Deployment Barriers for FCEV |
13.5. | A Kaleidoscope of Hydrogen Colours |
13.6. | Sources of Hydrogen |
13.7. | Fuel Cells Technologies Overview |
13.8. | Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells |
13.9. | What is a Fuel Cell Vehicle? |
13.10. | Fuel Cell Power Requirement |
13.11. | Fuel Cell Energy Density Advantage |
13.12. | Daily Duty Cycle Demand |
13.13. | Heavy Duty Vehicle Fuel Cell System Costs |
13.14. | The Challenge: Green H₂ Cost Reduction |
13.15. | Must be Green H₂ for FCEV to be 'Green' |
13.16. | Green Hydrogen Price Development Forecasts |
13.17. | Green Hydrogen Production Costs US / EU |
13.18. | Green H₂ Cost by Electricity Source US / EU |
13.19. | Electrolyser Powered by Curtailed Electricity |
13.20. | Comparison Hydrogen Fuel Cost vs Diesel Cost |
13.21. | FCEV Truck Hydrogen Consumption |
13.22. | Fuel Cell Truck Example Specifications |
13.23. | Fuel Cell Truck: HYUNDAI |
13.24. | Hyundai Hydrogen Mobility |
13.25. | Hyundai Pilot FC-Trucks in Switzerland |
13.26. | Hyundai Pilot FC-Trucks in Switzerland |
13.27. | XCIENT FC Truck Coming to America |
13.28. | U.S. XCEINT Longer Range |
13.29. | Hyundai XCIENT 4,000 Unit China Order |
13.30. | Hyundai Class 8 Concept |
13.31. | Fuel Cell Trucks: DAIMLER / VOLVO |
13.32. | Daimler Test GenH₂ Truck Prototype |
13.33. | Daimler Battery and Fuel Cell Outlook |
13.34. | Cellcentric: Daimler-Volvo Joint Venture |
13.35. | Volvo Group: Toward Fossil Free Transport |
13.36. | Scania to Concentrate on BEV-Trucks |
13.37. | HYZON Motors |
13.38. | Horizon Fuel Cell Technologies |
13.39. | HYZON Motors FCEV Truck Schematic |
13.40. | Nikola Corporation |
13.41. | Nikola ONE - Proof of Concept |
13.42. | Nikola TWO: New Flagship Fuel Cell Truck |
13.43. | Nikola Commercial Truck Milestones |
13.44. | Nikola an "Energy Technology Company"? |
13.45. | IDTechEx Take: The Future for Nikola |
13.46. | Fuel Cell Trucks: KENWORTH (PACCAR) |
13.47. | T680 Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle |
13.48. | Fuel Cell Trucks: TOYOTA / HINO |
13.49. | Fuel Cell Trucks: BALLARD / UPS |
13.50. | Ballard Acquire Arcola Energy |
13.51. | Ballard Motive Solutions |
13.52. | Fuel Cell Trucks: DONGFENG |
13.53. | Fuel Cell Truck Sales 2021 |
13.54. | Chinese FCEV Support |
13.55. | China Hydrogen Refuelling Stations |
13.56. | China's FCEV Deployment will it be Green? |
13.57. | Chinese Fuel Cell Dump Trucks |
13.58. | SANY Fuel Cell Trucks |
13.59. | China Fuel Cell Installed Capacity 2020 |
13.60. | Other Chinese Fuel Cell System Manufacturers |
13.61. | United Fuel Cell System R&D (Beijing) Co. |
13.62. | Example Fuel Cell Manufacturers U.S. FC-Trucks |
13.63. | BOSAL / Ceres Power - SOFC Range Extender |
13.64. | Guide to Hydrogen Truck Refuelling |
13.65. | Developing Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure |
13.66. | Fuel Cell Truck Refuelling Advantage |
13.67. | Long-Haul Trucking Opportunity? |
13.68. | FC-Trucks Facilitate Wider FCEV Deployment |
13.69. | The Fundamental Issue of Efficiency |
14. | H₂ COMBUSTION ENGINES |
14.1. | Introduction - H₂ Combustion Engines |
14.2. | Hydrogen Combustion Engines |
14.3. | Attraction of H₂ Combustion Engines |
14.4. | High Energy Density and Low Cost |
14.5. | Drawbacks of H₂ Combustion Engines |
14.6. | H₂-ICE Development by Vehicle Type |
14.7. | H₂-ICE Development by Region |
14.8. | KEYOU |
14.9. | H₂ Engine Key Modifications |
14.10. | Suppliers Move Toward H₂-ICE |
14.11. | JCB Focus on Hydrogen Combustion |
14.12. | DAF BEV, H₂-ICE, and FCEV |
14.13. | MAN Truck & Bus - H₂ Engine Testing |
14.14. | H₂-ICE Emissions Near Zero |
14.15. | Hydrogen Combustion System Layouts |
14.16. | Cummins H₂-ICE Approach |
14.17. | H₂-ICE CO2 Emission Reduction |
14.18. | H₂-ICE Efficiency vs FCEV |
14.19. | Is there a TCO Case for H₂-ICE? |
14.20. | Is H₂-ICE a Fast-to-Market Solution? |
14.21. | H₂-ICE CAPEX Advantage |
14.22. | Green H₂ Production Cost Forecast |
14.23. | H₂ Fuel Price More than Production Cost |
14.24. | On-site H₂ Production in Europe |
14.25. | The Reality: Today's H₂ Pump Price |
14.26. | The TCO Impact of High H₂ Fuel Cost |
14.27. | H₂-ICE Summary |
15. | FORECASTS |
15.1. | Introduction |
15.1.1. | Forecast Methodology (1) |
15.1.2. | Forecast Methodology (2) |
15.1.3. | Forecast Methodology (3) |
15.1.4. | Forecast Assumptions |
15.1.5. | Fuel Cells in Trucks Commentary |
15.1.6. | Other Alternative Powertrains |
15.1.7. | Forecast: Battery Size Assumptions MDT |
15.1.8. | Forecast: Battery Size Assumptions HDT |
15.1.9. | Forecast: Battery Size Assumptions FCEV |
15.1.10. | Forecast: Battery Size Assumptions PHEV |
15.2. | Medium and Heavy-Duty Truck Market Forecasts 2023-2043 |
15.2.1. | Medium & Heavy-Duty Truck Global Sales |
15.2.2. | M&HDT Global Sales: BEV, PHEV and FCEV |
15.2.3. | eM&HDT Sales by Region |
15.2.4. | Global M&HDT Market Share for eM&HDT |
15.2.5. | eM&HDT Battery Demand Forecast (GWh) |
15.2.6. | eM&HDT Battery Demand Forecast by Region |
15.2.7. | eM&HDT Market Forecast ($US billion) |
15.2.8. | eM&HDT Market Forecast by Region |
15.2.9. | FCEV M&HDT Fuel Cell Demand Forecast (MW) |
15.3. | Medium-Duty Truck Market Forecasts 2023-2043 |
15.3.1. | Medium-Duty Truck (MDT) Global Sales |
15.3.2. | MDT Global Sales: BEV, PHEV and FCEV |
15.3.3. | eMDT Sales by Region |
15.3.4. | Global MDT Market Share for eMDT |
15.3.5. | eMDT Battery Demand Forecast (GWh) |
15.3.6. | eMDT Market Forecast ($US billion) |
15.3.7. | eMDT Market Forecast by Region |
15.4. | Heavy-Duty Truck Market Forecasts 2023-2043 |
15.4.1. | Heavy-Duty Truck Global Sales |
15.4.2. | HDT Global Sales: BEV, PHEV and FCEV |
15.4.3. | eHDT Sales by Region |
15.4.4. | HDT Market Share for eHDT |
15.4.5. | eHDT Battery Demand Forecast (GWh) |
15.4.6. | eHDT Market Forecast ($US billion) |
15.4.7. | eHDT Market Forecast by Region |
15.5. | Regional Sales Forecasts 2023-2043 |
15.5.1. | Europe (EU27+UK+EFTA) MDT Sales by Powertrain |
15.5.2. | Europe (EU27+UK+EFTA) HDT Sales by Powertrain |
15.5.3. | U.S. MDT Sales by Powertrain |
15.5.4. | U.S. HDT Sales by Powertrain |
15.5.5. | China MDT Sales by Powertrain |
15.5.6. | China HDT sales by Powertrain |
15.5.7. | RoW MDT Sales by Powertrain |
15.5.8. | RoW HDT Sales by Powertrain |