This report has been updated. Click here to view latest edition.

If you have previously purchased the archived report below then please use the download links on the right to download the files.

電動式、ハイブリッド式および燃料電池式のバス 2021-2040年

中国、欧州、米国およびインドにおけるバッテリー電源、プラグイン・ハイブリッドおよび燃料電池式のバス：見通し、技術、会社分析

製品情報 概要 目次 FAQ (よくある質問) 価格 Related Content
「電動式、ハイブリッド式および燃料電池式のバス 2021-2040年」は、電化の市場要因、バスが次々と開発されている状況、そして燃料電池式バスを含めバスにおける純バッテリー電動式とプラグイン・ハイブリッド式のパワートレインの見通しを扱っています。このレポートは、中国、欧州、米国、インドおよび世界のその他の地域をまたがる車両電化率を反映した電動式市バスの利用度に関する IDTechEx の最新の地域別見通しを提供しています。
The bus market is evolving rapidly. The pressing need for cities around the world to improve air quality, alongside commitments by many governments to address climate change, are powering efforts to deliver zero on-road emission city bus fleet solutions. Over the next decade, these efforts will see major cities increasingly refuse to purchase anything but zero emission buses, as they deliver on promised zero emission zones to protect the health of their citizens.
 
Bus technology will focus primarily on battery electric buses (BEV), with plug-in hybrids (PHEV) rapidly losing already low market shares, and the much hyped fuel cell powertrain (FCEV) remaining a small fraction of the market because they fail to offer the same total cost of ownership benefit as BEV.
The latest edition "Electric, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Buses 2021- 2040" offers our in-depth analysis of this evolving market, highlighting major developments over the past year, and presenting for the first time our extended outlook to 2040 for pure electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell buses.
 
China has led the world in bus electrification and will continue to do so over the next 20-years. However, as a result of the subsidy phase-outs and the increasing saturation of electric buses in Tier 1 cities, IDTechEx project the electric bus sales in China will stabilise at a lower level than during the subsidy boom years, after the biggest decline yet in 2020 from the COVID-19 pandemic.
 
 
Source: Industry Associations, IDTechEx
 
Whilst Chinese OEMs will no longer receive large subsidies in China (which have amounted to billions of dollars), the support has already established a world-beating cost base and technology, which is spreading to other countries. For example, Europe sold over 1800 electric buses in 2019, up from around 750 in 2018, with BYD and Yutong as key suppliers. As the Chinese electric bus market saturates, we expect to see an increased presence of Chinese bus OEMs in other bus markets around the world.
 
The 2019 Busworld conference in Belgium left in no doubt that several of the giants of the industry are still primarily promoting diesel buses, and consequently rapidly losing market share (for example former bus leader Daimler). The report details key innovations and future trends from the conference, which included a bus that parked sideways and two pure electric Chinese robot shuttles. Our interviews revealed some gantry charging, leading to batteries of one quarter the cost and size. This report majors on these new developments including successful sales of Chinese robot shuttles and buses sold with in-wheel motors, and Solaris and China rapidly gaining market share by selling the latest technology, value engineered.
 
In 2010, virtually all new buses had an internal combustion engine yet 20 years later they will be the minority. Why, and what are the implications for the value chain? Componentry, systems, and bodywork are being radically changed. In this report, technologies are carefully explained with pros and cons and IDTechEx's bus technology timeline to 2040. The report includes a chapter devoted to the growing autonomous shuttle market; with increasing interest in autonomous passenger transport, the report offers profiles of current autonomous shuttle developers, explaining the design and future of small merged car / taxi / buses.
 
IDTechEx's research is underpinned by primary research and interviews undertaken around the globe, ongoing interviews are carried out globally by IDTechEx's PhD level multilingual technology analysts.
IDTechEx のアナリストへのアクセス
すべてのレポート購入者には、専門のアナリストによる最大30分の電話相談が含まれています。 レポートで得られた重要な知見をお客様のビジネス課題に結びつけるお手伝いをいたします。このサービスは、レポート購入後3ヶ月以内にご利用いただく必要があります。
詳細
この調査レポートに関してのご質問は、下記担当までご連絡ください。

アイディーテックエックス株式会社 (IDTechEx日本法人)
担当: 村越美和子 m.murakoshi@idtechex.com
1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1.Purpose of this report
1.2.Industry Terms
1.3.Global Bus Fleet 2020
1.4.Drivers and timing of bus electrification
1.5.Snapshot of Global and Regional Sales Trends
1.6.Bus technology timeline 2020-2040
1.7.Overview of 21 Country Targets
1.8.Forecast 2020-2040: BEV and PHEV city buses by region (Units)
1.9.Forecast 2020-2040: Battery demand BEV and PHEV city buses (GWh)
1.10.Forecast 2020-2040: BEV and PHEV city bus market size ($USD billion)
1.11.Forecast 2020-2040: Global city bus sales (Units)
1.12.Impact of coronavirus on forecasts
1.13.Primary Conclusions: Manufacturers
1.14.Primary Conclusions: Vested Interests
1.15.Primary Conclusions: Technology
1.16.Expectation of Lower Up-front Price 2020-2030
1.17.Key global forecast takeaways
1.18.Key regional forecast takeaways
1.19.End of PHEV Buses
1.20.Assumptions
1.21.Assumptions - unit cost and battery size
1.22.Fuel cell city bus forecasts
1.23.Fuel cell bus example specifications
1.24.Fuel cell city bus forecasts
1.25.Dense cities use most public transport and cities are getting denser
2.INTRODUCTION
2.1.Why adopt buses?
2.2.Why adopt electric buses?
2.3.Challenges for Electric Bus Adoption
2.4.Autonomous Buses: Robot Shuttles
2.5.Autonomous Buses: "Autonomous Rail Transit" (ART)
2.6.Future robot shuttle
2.7.Electric Bus Leadership: Focus on BEV
2.8.PHEV Sales: China and Europe
2.9.C40 Green and Healthy Streets Declaration tested against orders
2.10.Cities committed to the Transport part of the C40's Green and Healthy Streets Declaration
2.11.Challenges for Cities
2.12.China Cost Advantages
2.13.Importance of Upfront Price
2.14.Bus as a train?
2.15.What do latest electric bus orders tell us?
3.REGIONAL ANALYSIS
3.1.China electric transit bus, coach, shuttle
3.1.1.History of buses in China
3.1.2.China Electric Bus Sales by OEM and City
3.1.3.Yutong fights BYD for global leadership
3.1.4.BYD
3.1.5.BYD financials
3.2.India transit bus, coach, shuttle
3.2.1.Overview - Background: commercial vehicles
3.2.2.Electric bus overview
3.2.3.FAME India, Olectra-BYD, Ashok Leyland, Kinetic, TVS
3.3.Latin America transit bus, coach, shuttle
3.3.1.Latin America - large numbers
3.4.North America transit bus, coach, shuttle
3.4.1.USA: Unique mix
3.4.2.BYD, New Flyer, IndyGo, Alexander Dennis
3.4.3.Example of pure electric bus leadership: Proterra
3.5.Europe transit bus, coach, shuttle
3.5.1.Overview
3.5.2.France
3.5.3.Germany compared to Poland
3.5.4.Netherlands
3.5.5.Nordics
3.5.6.United Kingdom
3.5.7.Spain and Luxembourg
4.SCHOOL BUSES
4.1.North America
4.1.1.Overview
4.1.2.School buses choking children to death, unnecessary fires
4.1.3.US school bus statistics 2018
4.1.4.Commentary
4.1.5.Autonomy needed: driver shortages and cost escalation
4.1.6.Pure electric powertrains needed: longer life, much less maintenance compared to current diesel
4.1.7.US leading school bus manufacturers
4.2.China: big potential, not much happening yet
4.3.School buses: USA and China compared
4.4.School buses: V2G trials, launches and initiatives
5.LEARNINGS FROM BUSWORLD
5.1.Electric buses today
5.2.Example of excellence: Hess TOSA BRT
5.3.MAN, Bollore, CRRC, HIGER, Rosero contrasted
5.4.Mellor, eCrafter, APTIS
5.5.Large choice of regular sized electric buses
5.6.CRRC of China makes its own state-of-the-art electric bus components
5.7.Robot buses from China
5.8.What is happening about emissions? Cheating but improving
5.9.Worldwide regulatory emissions roadmap for heavy duty diesel
5.10.Overview
5.11.Powertrain choices
6.TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
6.1.Voltage trends
6.2.Benchmarking Electric Traction Motors
6.3.Motor Efficiency Comparison
6.4.Convergence on PMSM by Major Automakers
6.5.Electric Bus Motors
6.6.Magnet Price Increase?
6.7.In-wheel motors
6.8.Batteries, axial flux and external rotor motors
6.9.Gantry charging
6.10.Cummins reinvented
6.11.How nine key enabling technologies are improving to serve the primary needs
7.AUTONOMOUS SHUTTLE COMPANY PROFILES
7.1.Navya
7.2.EasyMile
7.3.Autonomous shuttles' public service in Australia
7.4.2getthere
7.5.Baidu Apolong
7.6.May Mobility
7.7.Local Motors
7.8.Sensible 4
7.9.GACHA
7.10.Ohmio Automation
7.11.Yutong
8.FUTURE ELECTRIC BUS TECHNOLOGY
8.1.Toyota REE chassis: huge advances
8.2.Robot buses changing radically: all sizes, smart materials
8.2.1.NTU Singapore and Volvo: first full size, autonomous electric bus
8.2.2.Future robot shuttle
8.2.3.Protean 360 degree wheel: sideways parking for robot vehicles
8.2.4.Multifunctional smart windows coming for robot vehicles
8.2.5.Triple action window by NREL
8.2.6.Airport shuttle bus thin-film PV roof system
8.2.7.IBM Olli robot bus: 3D printed multifunctional
8.3.Self-healing supercapacitor bodywork, supercapacitor buses, future battery
8.3.1.Self healing supercapacitor body
8.3.2.Traction supercapacitors in buses
8.3.3.Battery type, performance, future
8.4.Autonomy technology and hardware trends
8.4.1.Hardware
8.4.2.Hardware replaced by software & content
8.5.Charger standardisation: bus/truck commonality
8.6.Energy Independent Electric Vehicles EIEV
8.6.1.Disruptive
8.6.2.Towards energy independence: increasing bus range
8.6.3.Energy independent electric bus: NFH-H microbus China
8.6.4.Energy positive buses will come
9.ELECTRIC BUS FINANCING
9.1.UK eBus Purchase Subsidies
9.2.Germany eBus Purchase Subsidies
9.3.Sweden eBus Purchase Subsidies
9.4.Norway eBus Purchase Subsidies
9.5.Italy eBus Purchase Subsidies
9.6.Netherlands eBus Deployment with EIB Financing
9.7.Spain eBus Deployment with EIB Financing
9.8.European Clean Bus Deployment Initiative
9.9.China eBus Purchase Subsidies
9.10.US eBus Purchase Subsidies
10.90 HYBRID BUS MANUFACTURERS
11.120 PURE ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS, RETROFITTERS, DESIGNERS
12.FORECASTS
12.1.Forecast 2020-2040: BEV and PHEV city buses by region (Units)
12.2.Forecast 2020-2040: Battery demand BEV and PHEV city buses (GWh)
12.3.Forecast 2020-2040: BEV and PHEV city bus market size ($USD billion)
12.4.Forecast 2020-2040: BEV, PHEV and FCEV city bus sales (Units)
12.5.Robot Shuttles 2020-2030
12.6.Electric School Buses 2020-2030: By region (Units)
12.7.Electric School Buses 2020-2030: Market size ($USD billions)
12.8.Forecast 2020-2040: FCEV city buses by region (Units)
12.9.Forecast 2020-2040: Battery demand FCEV city buses (MWh)
12.10.Forecast 2020-2040: FCEV city bus market size ($USD billion)
12.11.Fuel Cell Bus Example Specifications
 

About IDTechEx reports

What are the qualifications of the people conducting IDTechEx research?

Content produced by IDTechEx is researched and written by our technical analysts, each with a PhD or master's degree in their specialist field, and all of whom are employees. All our analysts are well-connected in their fields, intensively covering their sectors, revealing hard-to-find information you can trust.

How does IDTechEx gather data for its reports?

By directly interviewing and profiling companies across the supply chain. IDTechEx analysts interview companies by engaging directly with senior management and technology development executives across the supply chain, leading to revealing insights that may otherwise be inaccessible.
 
Further, as a global team, we travel extensively to industry events and companies to conduct in-depth, face-to-face interviews. We also engage with industry associations and follow public company filings as secondary sources. We conduct patent analysis and track regulatory changes and incentives. We consistently build on our decades-long research of emerging technologies.
 
We assess emerging technologies against existing solutions, evaluate market demand and provide data-driven forecasts based on our models. This provides a clear, unbiased outlook on the future of each technology or industry that we cover.

What is your forecast methodology?

We take into account the following information and data points where relevant to create our forecasts:
  • Historic data, based on our own databases of products, companies' sales data, information from associations, company reports and validation of our prior market figures with companies in the industry.
  • Current and announced manufacturing capacities
  • Company production targets
  • Direct input from companies as we interview them as to their growth expectations, moderated by our analysts
  • Planned or active government incentives and regulations
  • Assessment of the capabilities and price of the technology based on our benchmarking over the forecast period, versus that of competitive solutions
  • Teardown data (e.g. to assess volume of materials used)
  • From a top-down view: the total addressable market
  • Forecasts can be based on an s-curve methodology where appropriate, taking into account the above factors
  • Key assumptions and discussion of what can impact the forecast are covered in the report.

How can I be confident about the quality of work in IDTechEx reports?

Based on our technical analysts and their research methodology, for over 25 years our work has regularly received superb feedback from our global clients. Our research business has grown year-on-year.
 
Recent customer feedback includes:
"It's my first go-to platform"
- Dr. Didi Xu, Head of Foresight - Future Technologies, Freudenberg Technology Innovation
 
"Their expertise allows us to make data-driven, strategic decisions and ensures we remain aligned with the latest trends and opportunities in the market."
- Ralf Hug, Global Head of Product Management & Marketing, Marquardt

What differentiates IDTechEx reports?

Our team of in-house technical analysts immerse themselves in industries over many years, building deep expertise and engaging directly with key industry players to uncover hard-to-find insights. We appraise technologies in the landscape of competitive solutions and then assess their market demand based on voice-of-the-customer feedback, all from an impartial point of view. This approach delivers exceptional value to our customers—providing high-quality independent content while saving customers time, resources, and money.

Why should we pick IDTechEx research over AI research?

A crucial value of IDTechEx research is that it provides information, assessments and forecasts based on interviews with key people in the industry, assessed by technical experts. AI is trained only on content publicly available on the web, which may not be reliable, in depth, nor contain the latest insights based on the experience of those actively involved in a technology or industry, despite the confident prose.

How can I justify the ROI of this report?

Consider the cost of the IDTechEx report versus the time and resources required to gather the same quality of insights yourself. IDTechEx analysts have built up an extensive contact network over many years; we invest in attending key events and interviewing companies around the world; and our analysts are trained in appraising technologies and markets.
 
Each report provides an independent, expert-led technical and market appraisal, giving you access to actionable information immediately, rather than you having to spend months or years on your own market research.

Can I speak to analysts about the report content?

All report purchases include up to 30 minutes of telephone time with an expert analyst who will help you link key findings in the report to the business issues you're addressing. This needs to be used within three months of purchasing the report.

What is the difference between a report and subscription?

A subscription from IDTechEx can include more reports, access to an online information platform with continuously updated information from our analysts, and access to analysts directly.

Before purchasing, I have some questions about the report, can I speak to someone?

Please email research@idtechex.com stating your location and we will quickly respond.

About IDTechEx

Who are IDTechEx's customers?

IDTechEx has served over 35,000 customers globally. These range from large corporations to ambitious start-ups, and from Governments to research centers. Our customers use our work to make informed decisions and save time and resources.

Where is IDTechEx established?

IDTechEx was established in 1999, and is headquartered in Cambridge, UK. Since then, the company has significantly expanded and operates globally, having served customers in over 80 countries. Subsidiary companies are based in the USA, Germany and Japan.

Questions about purchasing a report

How do I pay?

In most locations reports can be purchased by credit card, or else by direct bank payment.

How and when do I receive access to IDTechEx reports?

When paying successfully by credit card, reports can be accessed immediately. For new customers, when paying by bank transfer, reports will usually be released when the payment is received. Report access will be notified by email.

How do I assign additional users to the report?

Users can be assigned in the report ordering process, or at a later time by email.

Can I speak to someone about purchasing a report?

Please email research@idtechex.com stating your location and we will quickly respond.
 
バッテリー電源の市バスが2030年に250億ドルの市場に

レポート概要

スライド 239
フォーキャスト 2040
 

Customer Testimonial

quote graphic
"The resources produced by IDTechEx are a valuable tool... Their insights and analyses provide a strong foundation for making informed, evidence-based decisions. By using their expertise, we are better positioned to align our strategies with emerging opportunities."
Director of Market Strategy
Centre for Process Innovation (CPI)
 
 
 

Subscription Enquiry