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1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
1.1. | Purpose of this report |
1.2. | Industry Terms |
1.3. | Global Bus Fleet 2020 |
1.4. | Drivers and timing of bus electrification |
1.5. | Snapshot of Global and Regional Sales Trends |
1.6. | Bus technology timeline 2020-2040 |
1.7. | Overview of 21 Country Targets |
1.8. | Forecast 2020-2040: BEV and PHEV city buses by region (Units) |
1.9. | Forecast 2020-2040: Battery demand BEV and PHEV city buses (GWh) |
1.10. | Forecast 2020-2040: BEV and PHEV city bus market size ($USD billion) |
1.11. | Forecast 2020-2040: Global city bus sales (Units) |
1.12. | Impact of coronavirus on forecasts |
1.13. | Primary Conclusions: Manufacturers |
1.14. | Primary Conclusions: Vested Interests |
1.15. | Primary Conclusions: Technology |
1.16. | Expectation of Lower Up-front Price 2020-2030 |
1.17. | Key global forecast takeaways |
1.18. | Key regional forecast takeaways |
1.19. | End of PHEV Buses |
1.20. | Assumptions |
1.21. | Assumptions - unit cost and battery size |
1.22. | Fuel cell city bus forecasts |
1.23. | Fuel cell bus example specifications |
1.24. | Fuel cell city bus forecasts |
1.25. | Dense cities use most public transport and cities are getting denser |
2. | INTRODUCTION |
2.1. | Why adopt buses? |
2.2. | Why adopt electric buses? |
2.3. | Challenges for Electric Bus Adoption |
2.4. | Autonomous Buses: Robot Shuttles |
2.5. | Autonomous Buses: "Autonomous Rail Transit" (ART) |
2.6. | Future robot shuttle |
2.7. | Electric Bus Leadership: Focus on BEV |
2.8. | PHEV Sales: China and Europe |
2.9. | C40 Green and Healthy Streets Declaration tested against orders |
2.10. | Cities committed to the Transport part of the C40's Green and Healthy Streets Declaration |
2.11. | Challenges for Cities |
2.12. | China Cost Advantages |
2.13. | Importance of Upfront Price |
2.14. | Bus as a train? |
2.15. | What do latest electric bus orders tell us? |
3. | REGIONAL ANALYSIS |
3.1. | China electric transit bus, coach, shuttle |
3.1.1. | History of buses in China |
3.1.2. | China Electric Bus Sales by OEM and City |
3.1.3. | Yutong fights BYD for global leadership |
3.1.4. | BYD |
3.1.5. | BYD financials |
3.2. | India transit bus, coach, shuttle |
3.2.1. | Overview - Background: commercial vehicles |
3.2.2. | Electric bus overview |
3.2.3. | FAME India, Olectra-BYD, Ashok Leyland, Kinetic, TVS |
3.3. | Latin America transit bus, coach, shuttle |
3.3.1. | Latin America - large numbers |
3.4. | North America transit bus, coach, shuttle |
3.4.1. | USA: Unique mix |
3.4.2. | BYD, New Flyer, IndyGo, Alexander Dennis |
3.4.3. | Example of pure electric bus leadership: Proterra |
3.5. | Europe transit bus, coach, shuttle |
3.5.1. | Overview |
3.5.2. | France |
3.5.3. | Germany compared to Poland |
3.5.4. | Netherlands |
3.5.5. | Nordics |
3.5.6. | United Kingdom |
3.5.7. | Spain and Luxembourg |
4. | SCHOOL BUSES |
4.1. | North America |
4.1.1. | Overview |
4.1.2. | School buses choking children to death, unnecessary fires |
4.1.3. | US school bus statistics 2018 |
4.1.4. | Commentary |
4.1.5. | Autonomy needed: driver shortages and cost escalation |
4.1.6. | Pure electric powertrains needed: longer life, much less maintenance compared to current diesel |
4.1.7. | US leading school bus manufacturers |
4.2. | China: big potential, not much happening yet |
4.3. | School buses: USA and China compared |
4.4. | School buses: V2G trials, launches and initiatives |
5. | LEARNINGS FROM BUSWORLD |
5.1. | Electric buses today |
5.2. | Example of excellence: Hess TOSA BRT |
5.3. | MAN, Bollore, CRRC, HIGER, Rosero contrasted |
5.4. | Mellor, eCrafter, APTIS |
5.5. | Large choice of regular sized electric buses |
5.6. | CRRC of China makes its own state-of-the-art electric bus components |
5.7. | Robot buses from China |
5.8. | What is happening about emissions? Cheating but improving |
5.9. | Worldwide regulatory emissions roadmap for heavy duty diesel |
5.10. | Overview |
5.11. | Powertrain choices |
6. | TECHNOLOGY TRENDS |
6.1. | Voltage trends |
6.2. | Benchmarking Electric Traction Motors |
6.3. | Motor Efficiency Comparison |
6.4. | Convergence on PMSM by Major Automakers |
6.5. | Electric Bus Motors |
6.6. | Magnet Price Increase? |
6.7. | In-wheel motors |
6.8. | Batteries, axial flux and external rotor motors |
6.9. | Gantry charging |
6.10. | Cummins reinvented |
6.11. | How nine key enabling technologies are improving to serve the primary needs |
7. | AUTONOMOUS SHUTTLE COMPANY PROFILES |
7.1. | Navya |
7.2. | EasyMile |
7.3. | Autonomous shuttles' public service in Australia |
7.4. | 2getthere |
7.5. | Baidu Apolong |
7.6. | May Mobility |
7.7. | Local Motors |
7.8. | Sensible 4 |
7.9. | GACHA |
7.10. | Ohmio Automation |
7.11. | Yutong |
8. | FUTURE ELECTRIC BUS TECHNOLOGY |
8.1. | Toyota REE chassis: huge advances |
8.2. | Robot buses changing radically: all sizes, smart materials |
8.2.1. | NTU Singapore and Volvo: first full size, autonomous electric bus |
8.2.2. | Future robot shuttle |
8.2.3. | Protean 360 degree wheel: sideways parking for robot vehicles |
8.2.4. | Multifunctional smart windows coming for robot vehicles |
8.2.5. | Triple action window by NREL |
8.2.6. | Airport shuttle bus thin-film PV roof system |
8.2.7. | IBM Olli robot bus: 3D printed multifunctional |
8.3. | Self-healing supercapacitor bodywork, supercapacitor buses, future battery |
8.3.1. | Self healing supercapacitor body |
8.3.2. | Traction supercapacitors in buses |
8.3.3. | Battery type, performance, future |
8.4. | Autonomy technology and hardware trends |
8.4.1. | Hardware |
8.4.2. | Hardware replaced by software & content |
8.5. | Charger standardisation: bus/truck commonality |
8.6. | Energy Independent Electric Vehicles EIEV |
8.6.1. | Disruptive |
8.6.2. | Towards energy independence: increasing bus range |
8.6.3. | Energy independent electric bus: NFH-H microbus China |
8.6.4. | Energy positive buses will come |
9. | ELECTRIC BUS FINANCING |
9.1. | UK eBus Purchase Subsidies |
9.2. | Germany eBus Purchase Subsidies |
9.3. | Sweden eBus Purchase Subsidies |
9.4. | Norway eBus Purchase Subsidies |
9.5. | Italy eBus Purchase Subsidies |
9.6. | Netherlands eBus Deployment with EIB Financing |
9.7. | Spain eBus Deployment with EIB Financing |
9.8. | European Clean Bus Deployment Initiative |
9.9. | China eBus Purchase Subsidies |
9.10. | US eBus Purchase Subsidies |
10. | 90 HYBRID BUS MANUFACTURERS |
11. | 120 PURE ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS, RETROFITTERS, DESIGNERS |
12. | FORECASTS |
12.1. | Forecast 2020-2040: BEV and PHEV city buses by region (Units) |
12.2. | Forecast 2020-2040: Battery demand BEV and PHEV city buses (GWh) |
12.3. | Forecast 2020-2040: BEV and PHEV city bus market size ($USD billion) |
12.4. | Forecast 2020-2040: BEV, PHEV and FCEV city bus sales (Units) |
12.5. | Robot Shuttles 2020-2030 |
12.6. | Electric School Buses 2020-2030: By region (Units) |
12.7. | Electric School Buses 2020-2030: Market size ($USD billions) |
12.8. | Forecast 2020-2040: FCEV city buses by region (Units) |
12.9. | Forecast 2020-2040: Battery demand FCEV city buses (MWh) |
12.10. | Forecast 2020-2040: FCEV city bus market size ($USD billion) |
12.11. | Fuel Cell Bus Example Specifications |
スライド | 239 |
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フォーキャスト | 2040 |