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Autonomous Vehicles Land, Water, Air 2015-2035
Technology, timelines, forecasts: Car, UGV, AUV, UAV, drone, mobile robot
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Chief executives, business planning and marketing VPs and other interested parties such as investors need to grasp what is one market - autonomous vehicles of every type - and how they have so many components and systems in common. They wish to benchmark best practice and identify trends and this report is the first to pull it all together. Uniquely, it covers the whole topic of autonomous vehicles on-road, off-road, on water, underwater and in the air, whether carrying passengers or not. Indeed, those that are only occasionally autonomous during use and those that are only weakly autonomous are identified and discussed, not least because most of them are headed to be fully autonomous in due course. Autonomous cars are dealt with soberly in the context of greater successes.
Only this report is up to date and global in reach, being based on interviews, events and data analysis almost entirely in 2015 and 2014. It is not an academic treatise nor is it simply a consolidation of what is on the web. A high proportion of the tables and figures are original and the jargon is fully explained. There are slides from recent conferences across the world. It is not evangelism: it is analysis, so the negatives are also presented.
The emphasis is on lessons of success and failure and what comes next particularly focussed on business success, with lead indicators of such success. Timelines to 2040 of market, technology and allied advances are given and detailed forecasts of sales of autonomous vehicles from 2015-2025 particularly concentrate on numbers, unit value and total market value. Because by far the most autonomous vehicles are and will be electrically driven, there is particular detail on forecasting these vehicles by land, water and air and identifying which of these will have a substantially autonomous content in future. 30 minutes of free consultancy comes with each report purchase to fill in the gaps.
The Executive Summary and Conclusions is sufficient for those with little time to get a good grasp of the subject. It covers definitions, the spectrum of partial to total autonomy and highly automated to fully automated vehicles. The benefits and paybacks, relative degree of difficulty, hype curve for 10 families of autonomous vehicles, technology and market sizes and timelines are clearly presented in totally original new analysis. Many thought leaders and analysts are quoted, not just IDTechEx. The Introduction then looks at more definitions, purposes, arguments for and against, drive train technology, control and navigation technology, autonomy without infrastructure and a profusion of military and non-military examples with technology summarised.
Other chapters variously detail personal, industrial, commercial and military autonomous land vehicles now and in future, marine vehicles particularly the very successful Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV). Then come Unmanned Aerial Vehicles that are or will be autonomous particularly examining the burgeoning Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (SUAV) and their increasingly varied uses plus the technology making this possible. That includes collaborative swarming and Wireless Sensor (mesh) Networks (WSN).
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| 1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
| 1.1. | Definition |
| 1.1. | Purchaser pull vs typical impediments for different types of strongly autonomous vehicle. Well adopted in grey, considerable success in the coming decade yellow, applications having major success in ten years or more red. |
| 1.1. | Main terminology of autonomous (in grey) vs remote controlled vehicles and typical technology |
| 1.2. | Timeline 2015-2017 |
| 1.2. | Further sub-degrees of road vehicle autonomy |
| 1.2. | Timeline |
| 1.3. | Sophistication vs continuity |
| 1.3. | UK third party injury claims frequency for AEB equipped vs all vehicles |
| 1.3. | Timeline 2018-2020 |
| 1.4. | Timeline 2024-2040 |
| 1.4. | Range of potential fuel economy improvements in miles per US gallon for conventional, hybrid and autonomous cars |
| 1.4. | Highly automated and fully automated |
| 1.5. | Benefits and paybacks |
| 1.5. | Hype curve for autonomous vehicles land, water and air |
| 1.5. | Sophistication vs continuity of use of autonomous and partially autonomous vehicles by type. |
| 1.6. | Examples of benefits of L4 autonomy in vehicles |
| 1.6. | The sales of L3 production cars in number million with capability of self-driving through most or all of a journey on regular roads 2015-2035 by region |
| 1.6. | Degree of difficulty |
| 1.7. | Why go autonomous? |
| 1.7. | Unit value of L3 production cars with capability of self-driving through most or all of a journey on regular roads globally 2015-2035 |
| 1.7. | Some recent positive remarks from thought leaders about autonomous cars |
| 1.8. | Some reasons for making land, water and air vehicles autonomous |
| 1.8. | Total market value of production cars with capability of self-driving through most or all of a journey on regular roads globally 2015-2035 compared with value of their autonomy systems |
| 1.8. | Hype curve for autonomous vehicles land, water, air |
| 1.9. | Technology |
| 1.9. | Lidar sales dollars 2015-2035 |
| 1.9. | Challenges and issues for autonomous cars. The most difficult aspects are shown in red. |
| 1.10. | Recent comments pointing to difficulties with autonomous road vehicles |
| 1.10. | EV forecasts $ billion 2014-2025 |
| 1.10. | Market size |
| 1.11. | Effect of 2015 oil price collapse on electric vehicles |
| 1.11. | Bosch view of benefits of increasingly autonomous driving |
| 1.11. | Technologies of existing and planned autonomous vehicles by type of function |
| 1.12. | The sales of L3 production cars in number million with capability of self-driving through most or all of a journey on regular roads 2015-2035 by region |
| 1.12. | Intelligent mobility roadmap |
| 1.12. | Lessons from SMMT Connected London March 2015 |
| 1.13. | Coordinating autonomy and energy independence in vehicles |
| 1.13. | Bosch roadmap |
| 1.13. | Number, unit value and total market value for L3 production cars with capability of self-driving through most or all of a journey on regular roads globally 2015-2035 and value of on-board autonomy systems |
| 1.14. | 40 categories of electric vehicle and potential for L3 or L4 autonomous versions. 100% now in blue. Highest potential green. |
| 1.14. | Driver monitoring |
| 1.14. | News in September 2016 - Volvo first in the world with self-driving truck in underground mine |
| 1.15. | Buses will be taxis will be buses |
| 1.15. | Nissan safety shield |
| 1.15. | Number of electric vehicles sold globally (in thousands) 2015-2025 by 40 categories with those having most potential for strong autonomy |
| 1.16. | Key technology areas according to Bosch and Nissan |
| 1.17. | Implementation of intelligence |
| 1.18. | Key elements of autonomous drive |
| 1.19. | A Volvo project |
| 1.20. | Nissan incremental timeline |
| 1.21. | Regulatory issues - Bosch opinion |
| 1.22. | Bosch view of megatrends |
| 1.23. | Bosch conclusions |
| 1.24. | EIV: not just adding something to a vehicle |
| 1.25. | Autonomous operation + EIV: a synergistic ecosystem |
| 1.26. | Selection of IDTechEx images taken at Barclays event London September 2016 |
| 2. | INTRODUCTION |
| 2.1. | Definitions |
| 2.1. | Unmanned marine vehicles terminology |
| 2.2. | Passenger car low carbon technology roadmap |
| 2.2. | Vibrant sectors |
| 2.3. | Drive Train Technology |
| 2.3. | Basic technology of an autonomous land vehicle |
| 2.4. | Google autonomous car basics |
| 2.4. | Control and navigation technology |
| 2.4.1. | Vehicle with or without infrastructure |
| 2.4.2. | Autonomous land vehicle without infrastructure |
| 2.5. | Autonomous driving or green driving? |
| 2.5. | Selection of IDTechEx images taken at Barclays event London September 2016 |
| 2.6. | Effect of 2015 oil price collapse on electric vehicles |
| 2.7. | Buses will be taxis will be buses |
| 3. | TECHNOLOGIES FOR AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES |
| 3.1. | System architecture and technology |
| 3.1. | System architecture for typical autonomous vehicles |
| 3.1. | Autonomous system descriptions and our comments |
| 3.2. | System classifications |
| 3.2. | Functional diagram of autonomous vehicle platform |
| 3.2. | Sensor Individual Technologies |
| 3.3. | Autonomous Vehicles Research Platforms |
| 3.3. | A simplified hypothetical view of sensors on a car and how they detect hazards on the road |
| 3.3. | Summary of the main individual sensors for autonomous vehicles |
| 3.4. | Analysis of different approaches to autonomous vehicles |
| 3.4. | LabVIEW graphic of sensors on cars |
| 3.4. | Cameras in drones |
| 3.5. | Valeo |
| 3.5. | Lidar captures party sequence in Radiohead's House of Cards 3D data music "video" |
| 3.6. | Lidar mounted in a vehicle captures out door sequence in Radiohead's House of Cards 3D data music "video |
| 3.6. | Velodyne LiDAR |
| 3.7. | The detection of pedestrians by radar sensors is an area of increasing research. |
| 3.8. | Radar comparison |
| 3.9. | Price of commercially available autonomous vehicle sensors with different specifications |
| 3.10. | The research vehicle platform of the V charge project |
| 3.11. | One autonomy solution for cars |
| 3.12. | This sensor can be seen better in the figure below, on top of Google's last prototype of self-driving car |
| 3.13. | Caterpillar command system |
| 3.14. | Lidar on construction and mining vehicle |
| 3.15. | The HDL-64E S2 provides high definition 3D information about the surrounding environment |
| 3.16. | Examples of SUAV rechargeable lithium batteries. Top: Flight Power "EVO 20" lithium polymer battery. Bottom: Sion Power lithium sulphur |
| 3.17. | Tamron lens systems suitable for drones. |
| 4. | AUTONOMOUS AGRICULTURAL VEHICLES |
| 4.1. | Autonomous tractors |
| 4.1. | ATC's first product, eDrive, turns old tractors into better-than-new tractors. |
| 4.2. | Intellectual Property |
| 4.2. | Agricultural autonomous quadbike |
| 4.3. | Agriculture multi-purpose platforms |
| 4.3. | Market opportunity |
| 4.4. | ATC retrofit competitor assessment in 2015 |
| 4.4. | Agriculture and mining commonality |
| 4.5. | Concept autonomous tractor development - August 2016 |
| 4.5. | ATC assessment of competitors' technology in 2015 |
| 4.6. | ATC's Long-term Vision - The Spirit |
| 4.7. | Kienze autonomous tractor concept in 2011. |
| 4.8. | Rogue Rovers Farm Dogg autonomous quadbike |
| 4.9. | Bosch's "Bonirob" agricultural robot |
| 4.10. | Bonirob can distinguish between crops and weeds |
| 4.11. | The robot is being developed at Deepfield Robotics |
| 4.12. | Grizzly robot electric vehicle for agriculture and mining |
| 4.13. | Concept autonomous tractor technology developed by CHH Industrial |
| 5. | OTHER OFF-ROAD LAND AVS |
| 5.1. | Dyson 360 Eye robot vacuum cleaner |
| 5.1.1. | Robot vacuum cleaners |
| 5.1.2. | Robot lawn mowers |
| 5.1.3. | Sidewalk delivery robot |
| 5.1.4. | Land-based military |
| 5.1.5. | Force multiplier |
| 5.1.6. | Many operating modes and programs |
| 5.1.7. | Lockheed Martin AMAS kits |
| 5.1.8. | US Army technology roadmap |
| 5.1.9. | Imaging and Payload UGV Technology |
| 5.1.10. | Evolution of Technology Standards, COTS and Engineering Innovation |
| 5.2. | Some robot lawn mowers on sale in 2015 |
| 5.3. | The Starship robots are designed to operate on pedestrian pavements |
| 5.4. | Squad Mission Support System (SMSS) from Lockheed Martin |
| 5.5. | Examples of how the AMAS kits can be used in a variety of military vehicles to promote varying levels of autonomy |
| 5.6. | Control schematic |
| 5.7. | The ADLINK HPERC is a sealed, rugged COTS computing platform incorporating industry standard technology and long-life processing architecture |
| 6. | AUTONOMOUS CARS AND TAXIS |
| 6.1. | Introduction |
| 6.1. | Google experimental autonomous car |
| 6.2. | Uber has acquired Otto, a 90-plus person technology startup whose mission is to rethink transportation |
| 6.2. | |
| 6.3. | Uber |
| 6.3. | BMW robocar |
| 6.3.1. | Uber's self driving cars - August 2015 |
| 6.4. | BMW |
| 6.4. | Mercedes autonomous car concept |
| 6.4.1. | BMW says autonomous i NEXT will be available in 2021 |
| 6.5. | Mercedes |
| 6.5. | Nissan IDS Concept |
| 6.6. | nuTonomy - the first-ever public trial of a robo-taxi service |
| 6.6. | Nissan IDS Concept |
| 6.7. | Tesla |
| 6.7. | Hanyang University AV work |
| 6.8. | The Korea smart car development activities |
| 6.8. | UK Autodrive consortium |
| 6.9. | Delphi autonomous car 2015 |
| 6.10. | DOT Product USA |
| 6.11. | nuTonomy has launched the first-ever public trial of a robo-taxi service - August 2016 |
| 6.12. | Autonomous car research in Korea |
| 6.12.1. | 2015 EVS28 exhibition and conferences Korea |
| 6.12.2. | The Korea smart car development activities |
| 7. | PERSONAL AND COMMERCIAL AVS |
| 7.1. | Grizzly robot electric vehicle for agriculture and mining |
| 7.1.1. | Tetwalkers |
| 7.1.2. | coModule autonomous bike |
| 7.1.3. | Disaster search and rescue |
| 7.2. | Agriculture and mining |
| 7.2. | Autonomous shuttle in Switzerland |
| 7.3. | Buses |
| 7.3.1. | Autonomous shuttles in Switzerland |
| 8. | AUTONOMOUS MARINE VEHICLES - SURFACE CRAFT |
| 8.1. | Seaswarm solar powered autonomous boat gathering oil |
| 8.1.1. | Unmanned boat gathering oil USA |
| 8.1.2. | ReVolt unmanned zero emission short sea ship of the future |
| 9. | AUTONOMOUS UNDERWATER VEHICLES (AUVS) |
| 9.1. | Introduction |
| 9.1. | Thomas Hoover and Brett Hobson work on the long-range AUV |
| 9.2. | The Ocean Explorer AUV |
| 9.2. | Large AUVs |
| 9.3. | Small AUVs |
| 9.3. | Ocean Voyager II AUV |
| 9.4. | Kongsberg HUGIN swimmer AUV on Republic of Korea Navy ship |
| 9.4. | Swimmers vs gliders |
| 9.4.1. | Definitions |
| 9.4.2. | Demand |
| 9.4.3. | Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution USA |
| 9.4.4. | Monterey Bay Aquarium Ocean Research Institute USA |
| 9.4.5. | Florida Atlantic University USA |
| 9.4.6. | OceanServer Technology USA |
| 9.4.7. | Kongsberg Norway |
| 9.4.8. | Teledyne USA, Iceland |
| 9.4.9. | Autosub6000 UK |
| 9.4.10. | a.r.s Technologies GmbH Germany |
| 9.4.11. | DRDO India |
| 9.4.12. | JAMSTEC Japan |
| 9.4.13. | NASA USA |
| 9.5. | Deploying AUVs Canada |
| 9.5. | Royal New Zealand Navy assist the search for a sunken ferry in 2009 using Kongsberg AUVs |
| 9.6. | Remus 600 - not identical with the LBS version |
| 9.6. | Wave and sun powered sea gliders |
| 9.6.1. | Virginia Institute of Marine Science USA |
| 9.6.2. | Falmouth Scientific Inc USA |
| 9.6.3. | Liquid Robotics USA |
| 9.7. | Network of unmanned undersea platforms assist manned vessels |
| 9.7. | Hydroid Remus 6000 AUV |
| 9.8. | Hydroid Remus 100 AUV |
| 9.8. | Biomimetic unmanned underwater craft |
| 9.8.1. | Robot jellyfish USA and Germany |
| 9.9. | Gavia AUV schematic |
| 9.10. | Autosub6000 |
| 9.11. | AUV from a.r.s Technologies |
| 9.12. | Indian AUV-150 |
| 9.13. | URASHIMA |
| 9.14. | URASHIMA mission profile |
| 9.15. | Specification for JAMSTEC long range AUV |
| 9.16. | The DepthX vehicle from NASA |
| 9.17. | Wave and sun power recharging a glider AUV before it resumes its mission |
| 9.18. | Wave and sun powered sea glider |
| 9.19. | Autonomous wave glider |
| 9.20. | PACX Wave Glider |
| 9.21. | Hydra system |
| 9.22. | AquaJelly |
| 9.23. | Japanese robot jellyfish |
| 10. | UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES (UAVS) |
| 10.1. | Planned use of DSRC for safety |
| 10.1. | Data for RQ-11A version of AeroVironment Raven |
| 10.1.1. | Definitions and scope |
| 10.2. | Needs |
| 10.2. | Gannet diving and planned Cormorant military spy plane/submarine |
| 10.2.1. | Diving UAV |
| 10.3. | Small unmanned aerial vehicles |
| 10.3. | AeroVironment Raven |
| 10.3.1. | Introduction |
| 10.3.2. | Airbus becomes a quadcopter user in 2014 |
| 10.3.3. | UAR postal delivery |
| 10.3.4. | AeroVironment Raven, Puma, Hummingbird |
| 10.3.5. | AirShip Technologies Group |
| 10.3.6. | Hirobo Japan |
| 10.3.7. | Lockheed Martin seeds |
| 10.3.8. | Robot insects USA |
| 10.3.9. | University of Michigan bat, solar plane USA |
| 10.3.10. | Lite Machines Corporation USA |
| 10.3.11. | NRL launch an unmanned aerial vehicle from a submerged submarine |
| 10.3.12. | Quadcopter piloted by smartphone: Vienna University of Technology |
| 10.4. | Some new uses of small UAVs 2014-5 |
| 10.4. | Raven enhancement |
| 10.4.1. | Mini helicopters tracking weeds Australia |
| 10.4.2. | Drones learn how diseases spread Malaysia |
| 10.4.3. | Drones monitor killer whales Canada |
| 10.4.4. | NMSU tests unmanned aircraft over active mine USA |
| 10.5. | Swarming, self-healing networks of UAVs USA |
| 10.5. | Aqua Puma |
| 10.6. | Military hummingbird |
| 10.6. | Swarming 3D eye-bots in Germany |
| 10.7. | Large electrical UAVs |
| 10.7. | The CybAero UAV |
| 10.8. | V2 Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) |
| 10.8. | Planetary exploration |
| 10.9. | DOD upper atmosphere dirigible USA |
| 10.9. | Lockheed flying cameras based on tree seeds |
| 10.9.2. | VESPAS Europe |
| 10.9.3. | AeroVironment Helios and Global Observer |
| 10.10. | Aurora Flight Sciences USA |
| 10.10. | The TechJect flying bug is not yet autonomous but it can fly like a bird and hover like a bug |
| 10.11. | Examples of robot insects |
| 10.11. | Lockheed Martin USA |
| 10.11.1. | Airbus HAPS solar plane |
| 10.11.2. | Facebook vs Google |
| 10.11.3. | Boeing and Versa USA, QinetiQ & Newcastle University UK |
| 10.11.4. | Japanese solar sail to Venus |
| 10.11.5. | NASA testing electric propulsion |
| 10.12. | UAV payload market |
| 10.12. | UAS nano swarm vignette |
| 10.12.1. | Amazon drone delivery |
| 10.12.2. | UAVs can recharge their batteries by perching on power lines |
| 10.13. | Robobee objective |
| 10.14. | COM-BAT concept |
| 10.15. | Lite Machines Voyeur UAV |
| 10.16. | Voyeur in action |
| 10.17. | The Quadcopter-Team: Annette Mossel, Christoph Kaltenriner, Hannes Kaufmann, Michael Leichtfried (left to right.) |
| 10.18. | UAS far term implementation by the US Army |
| 10.19. | The sensor system |
| 10.20. | Planned upper atmosphere dirigible for military use |
| 10.21. | AeroVironment Helios |
| 10.22. | Global Observer first flight August 2010 |
| 10.23. | Military deployment of solar/ fuel cell UAVs |
| 10.24. | Odysseus self assembling unmanned electric UAV |
| 10.25. | Sunlight Eagle |
| 10.26. | Lockheed Martin morphing electric UAV |
| 10.27. | Integrated Sensor Is Structure (ISIS) smart airship |
| 10.28. | Lockheed Martin solar airship and P791 concepts |
| 10.29. | SolarEagle |
| 10.30. | IKAROS |
| 10.31. | GL-10 Greased Lightning |
| 10.32. | GL-10 in horizontal flight |
| IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS AND CONSULTING | |
| TABLES | |
| FIGURES |
Over 40 million cars will have sophisticated autonomy in 2035
レポート概要
| ページ | 236 |
|---|---|
| Tables | 20 |
| 図 | 134 |
| フォーキャスト | 2035 |
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